Chapter 6: Hypothesis of the Disaster

“You’re right. We’ve been able to identify the location, so it’s time to evacuate—”

“It’s not.”

“This is still insufficient to convince the nation.” Both Mia and I cut her off.

They fundamentally haven’t listened to her prophecy at all, so just pinning down the location it’ll occur surely won’t make them evacuate now. Though if we were to present them with this analysis in secret before the public announcement was made, it might be a different story.

“At the very least, I think there is a need to identify what sort of disaster will occur before anything can be done.”

“B-But... the crystal didn’t show anything about the disaster itself.”

“Let’s not worry about the crystal for now. We’ve acquired the regional information of the disaster. Meaning, we’re now capable of bringing up candidates for disasters that are likely to occur in the region.”

Though we didn’t know everything, we managed to isolate the region and time period. That means we had enough info to start considering other factors.

Even if there were only ten places it could occur, and there were hypothetically five types of disasters that could happen in each region, there would be fifty combinations to consider. It wasn’t impossible to analyze the situation with that number, but it wouldn’t exactly be a speedy process.

However, if we just have one place to consider, even if we have ten potential candidates for disasters, we only need to analyze those ten cases.

“Let’s begin by bringing up potential candidates for disasters which can occur. The fact that the villagers were running away is a big hint. So, what can we discern from that...”

“It must be something quite severe for them to abandon their abundant harvests. I think it will be something which occurs suddenly,” Mia replied.

“Right. An unpredictable event. At the very least, that’s how the villagers would see it.” I nodded back at Mia. As a proper villager of this world, Mia’s intuition was indispensable here. “As for candidates, there are both natural and man-made disasters. Let’s start by considering people to be the cause.”

I pulled out a white piece of paper from my pocket, and Mia’s expression clouded over. Paper counts as expenses. My personal sense of values only priced it at pocket change per sheet, though. Nevertheless, when it comes to handling problems that I couldn’t settle in my mind alone, I had no choice but to rely on external tools.

I wrote “Invasion by the Empire” on the paper.

Alfina’s expression darkened immediately. To the west, or more specifically the northwest, a large river serves as the national border between the Empire and the Kingdom. The Empire is always in need of more food, since a large portion of their territory lies on mountainous terrain. There had been multiple cases of wars with the Empire where they crossed over the river in the past.

The reason for the current long-lasting peace is because the increase in monster activity within their territory had stolen the luxury they had for an invasion. Negotiations had settled on a trade of agricultural goods for mineral goods to balance things out. Incidentally, trade with the Empire is entirely under the state’s jurisdiction. Only the largest companies have the right to do so.

“Wasn’t one of the reasons for stopping you from announcing anything ‘to not provoke the Empire,’ Your Highness?”

“...It’s just as you say.”

There is no authority above all nations here. Therefore, no country exists that can afford a lack of vigilance towards their neighbors. The Kingdom needs to be wary of the Empire. And of course, the Empire needs to be wary of the Kingdom. Both nations are well aware of this. This is the paradox; relations are healthy specifically because they’re wary of each other.

And precisely because of that, there is naturally a need to avoid any unnecessary provocation. That in itself isn’t wrong. If perhaps news of the Kingdom hardening its watch on the western region unprovoked were to reach the Empire’s ears, it would raise their wariness of the Kingdom. And that would in turn raise the Kingdom’s wariness. And when this loop passes a certain point, the rumor that the prophecy of disaster refers to an invasion from the Empire could be the final straw.

The forty years of peace we’ve had would crumble in an instant, and the prophecy would be self-fulfilling. Furthermore, if the prophecy were actually true and didn’t refer to a war, we’d have both a war with the Empire and a full-blown disaster on the side. It’s relatively possible the entire Kingdom could collapse from that.

However, neglecting to consider an invasion from the Empire entirely out of fear of that exact situation is a completely different matter. That’s precisely why we must consider it.

“The probability isn’t all that high, right?” I pointed at the map. The border with the Empire lies to the northwest. Reylia was situated in the southern portion of the northwest region of the Kingdom. The path a large army could take across the river and into the Kingdom is further to the north and continues east towards the capital without crossing Reylia.

If their only goal is food, there are countless villages with far more abundant fields. And if their goal is to dominate the western grain-producing region, then toppling Berthold would be enough. It’s difficult to think an imperial army could make it all the way from the national border to Reylia without any sort of warning reaching the village as well. Furthermore...

“Let’s confirm the image from the prophecy a bit more. Were any buildings collapsing? Did you spot smoke or anything else over the horizon?”

“No, such a scene does not come to mind. The skies were clear as well, which is exactly why the people running away were even more...” Alfina clenched her fist atop the table. It seemed she was recalling the tragic image in her mind as I questioned her.

However, this was important information. If it was war, it’d be strange for there not to be any smoke at all. In the event of an invasion, the village would get burned down, and if not, it’s possible that the fields would be burned as a way to prevent the Empire from acquiring further provisions.

I crossed out “Invasion by the Empire” and wrote down the next candidate.

“The next possibility is the outbreak of a rebellion.”

Alfina’s face turned pale. It was understandable considering her lineage, but we couldn’t discount the possibility. This region played host to a rebellion 20 years ago, and the capital still hated them for it. Even the tax rates were stricter. However, conditions have to pass quite an extreme point for a rebellion to start. Reylia and the surrounding villages weren’t cornered to that extent; particularly considering the abundant harvest in the prophecy.

“That is difficult to imagine,” Mia commented.

“Agreed.” Mia and I nodded at each other. I might just be flattering myself, but there are many hopes for the future there thanks to my apiculture business.

Of course, the probability of it happening was not zero. We weren’t capable of acquiring all the necessary information to determine that, and even if we could, such a volume of information wouldn’t fit in anyone’s head. There was only one correct answer to all doubts: “I don’t know.”

The only thing we can do is “assess,” taking what assumptions we have on hand into consideration. It’s not about belief, but choice. We submit ourselves to the risk of making the wrong choice.

“Next is natural disasters. Earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions...”

Reylia had no large rivers nearby, and there were no records of previous eruptions from the mountain range. Volcanic eruptions were, of course, unpredictable by nature. Even in modern Japan, it isn’t possible to predict them with sufficient accuracy. This also applies to earthquakes. I continued to cross out the possibilities one by one as I traced my finger along the map.

“It’s also difficult to picture it being an epidemic...”

In an age where the population density is quite sparse, the first place to consider for an epidemic would be the major cities. It’s also difficult to imagine that a village would be abandoned over one. Do people really try to run away from an epidemic in a panic?

I continued to stare at the map.

“Then let’s think of the next possibility... Next is... Uhhh...”

“Ricardo?”

“Sir?” The two girls stared at me as I held my tongue.

Well, this is troublesome. I’ve largely considered all the possibilities that come to mind. What other natural disasters are there? A tsunami? We’re nowhere close to the ocean. A meteorite collision? It doesn’t match the image; that wouldn’t be a simple matter of just smoke. Also, it’s not like meteorites possess a will to go world to world just to wipe out dinosaurs. It’s literally a needless anxiety.

Wait, hang on, what if there’s some sort of magic to cause something similar to a meteorite to come down...? Or maybe something like a Demon Lord getting summoned from another world?

There was no way of verifying that, so it wasn’t even worth considering. If a Demon Lord truly appeared, all we could really do was pray that a hero comes along too. I’d like to bluntly refuse being the hero from another world, by the way. I’d much prefer for a Demon Lord’s powers to awaken within me come autumn. Then I can just create a demon country and set up my commerce reform there.

Crap... my thoughts are getting more and more unrealistic. I shook my head as the two girls looked at me with hope and anxiety. Sweat ran down my forehead. My thoughts had come to a stop. Meaning...

I took a deep breath in, and out.

“This is a bad trend,” I whispered quietly to myself.

The fact that I couldn’t find a candidate was proof that I had information big enough that it couldn’t be ignored. Putting it paradoxically, what I was unconsciously denying here was the information itself. Be it man-made or natural, my thoughts were always trending towards Earth’s standards.

So the question was: what is the situation that existed in this world which I was unable to imagine?

That’s it... This is a different world, after all...

I looked at the girls before me. One is the Oracle Princess, and the other had once warned me of a certain something...

“There’s... one other possibility that comes to mind.”

I stood up, and pulled out a book on natural history. This is what I had been investigating in the archive the last time I was here.

Alfina and Mia focused on the pages as I turned them over. And near the end of the book, my finger stopped on a creature that didn’t exist on Earth. My other hand stretched out towards the map, and I traced my index finger along the map to the northwestern region, just west of Reylia.

Right there on the map was a mountain range plastered in vermillion, and a forest drawn in red. This was the domain of monsters that humans don’t usually get involved with. However, there was one exception: a phenomenon where monsters pour out of the Loewer Wald en masse.

It’s what the Second Chivalric Order goes to subjugate when omens of it occurring begin to show in the east. That thing which may lead to Dreyfan’s profits.

“A monster flood...” A term which had no sense of reality to me left my mouth.

I felt wracked by a feeling like I was talking about an event in a game in the other world. However, here in this world, monster floods were a reality. I wrote down “Monster Flood” on the piece of paper and circled it twice.

“Let’s try hypothesizing that the disaster in the prophecy is a monster flood.”

“A monster flood?” Alfina said with a puzzled expression.

“A pack of monsters will, at the least, definitely not commit arson. There’s also no fear of food being stolen or setting it on fire to prevent that,” Mia conjectured, then tilted her head to the side. “However, a monster flood has never happened in the west.”

She certainly had a point. I’ve even considered expanding my apiculture business towards the Loewer Wald. From a probability standpoint, a monster flood could be put next to a regular flood and a volcanic eruption as an excluded candidate. However, I looked at the map once more.

“Now that I think of it, why exactly has a monster flood never occurred in the west?”

At least from what I could see on the map, the terrain on the eastern and western borders of the Kingdom was largely symmetrical. The west had a mountain range as well. In fact, the red trees we could see from Reylia were proof that the mountain range’s mana influenced the region.

Both seemed to have identical geographical conditions, but a monster flood had occurred in the east once every few years, and none had been recorded in the west for over 200 years.

“Do they have anything about monster floods written in here...?”

I turned over the page which wrote about monsters and skimmed through the book. However, the contents had suddenly changed to an entirely different topic. The descriptions of monsters were meager to begin with, and seeing how humans never enter monster territory, information on their ecosystem is scarce.

“That’s weird. Action against monster floods in the east is proactive, right? So they must have some knowledge behind its mechanisms...”

“Sir. Dealing with monster floods is a duty of the chivalric orders.”

“I see, so it’s military information.”

So it can’t be made public at a moment’s notice, then. In that case, we’ll need to search for someone who’s well-versed in military information. The image of a certain haughty upperclassman came to mind, but that would be impossible. Then what about Dreyfan? If he’s getting involved with the chivalric order, then he should have some information regarding them... but there’s no way he would share it with me.

In any case, informing the wrong people about this will just make things worse. Even if I intend on remaining neutral here, objectively speaking, we would all get labeled as people supporting the prophecy that threatens the stability of the Kingdom. And now these suspicious people are trying to get access to military information. Yup, an execution is guaranteed.

Actually, why is it that when I think of my personal connections, I can’t find anything but enemies?

“Mia, can you... Wait, I guess that’s unreasonable too.”

Mia’s personal relationships were largely centered around girls from other mercantile houses. And so, I looked to the one other person here.

Alfina had her close aide, Claudia. And if I remembered right, her father was an officer in the Second Chivalric Order.

Strictly speaking, she was also an enemy of mine. If she found out I was involved, she would definitely refuse to cooperate out of “loyalty for her lady.” But in that case, we could keep things simple if Alfina was the one to ask her. The problem was whether Alfina would be capable of asking that without revealing her hand...

And just then, the bell rang. We have to finish this up soon. So first, let’s consolidate the information we do have.