Chapter 7: Specialist

“As of now, the disaster is centered on Reylia village, and we’re assuming it is a monster flood. That’s our current hypothesis of the disaster in the prophecy.”

“A hypothesis...?”

“Yes, which means we need to move the hypothesis to the next stage. So, when is the next time you’ll be attending the Academy, Your Highness?”

If the princess were to break her curfew, or if anyone else even saw us right now, the entire plan would crumble to dust.

“I believe it will be in one week.”

“Understood. I do think you’ll be together with Miss Adel during that period. Could you obtain some information from her regarding monster floods?”

“I will try.” Alfina nodded strongly, for her anyways.

“Sir, what will we be doing?”

“Let’s gather information on the vicinity. There’s something I thought of when I was looking at the map. It’s going to need some slightly troublesome calculations. I’ll be relying on you, Mia.”

“Of course.” Mia nodded.

“Well then...”

The two of us stood up, and I informed Mia of the data we’d need. It’s something we’d already gathered before, related to the Dreyfans. Mia immediately understood, and headed to the opposite end of the archive to gather the old materials.

I headed back towards the library to collect some newer materials. I thought Alfina would leave using the small back door to the director’s office, but she followed me towards the library. It was a good opportunity to make sure she understood that giving someone too much of an unnecessary bias was strictly prohibited in information gathering.

“Your Highness. Do be sure that you do not mention us, and especially not me, in your talks with Miss Adel.”

“But... if not for you...”

“We don’t have enough time, considering the possibility of the disaster occurring when the lotus flowers begin to bloom. What needs to be prioritized right now is quickly gathering unbiased information.”

“...Understood.” Alfina nodded after hesitating for a moment. “I must truly thank you for this. I will never forget this favor.”

We arrived at the exit of the archive. I stretched out my hand to the door, and Alfina bowed to me deeply.

“Regarding that matter, please believe what Mia said earlier. We won’t take action unless it involves our interests. The safety of that village is critical to us. If that prophecy warns of danger which is to befall our company, then we should be the ones thanking you.”

“All I did was fulfill my duty as the Oracle. But... as for you, Ricardo...”

“Think of it this way. The Royal Academy exists to allow students of different standings to intermingle. And what we three did just now is exactly that, a little joint strategy meeting.”

And just this once, I took the public stance of things. Putting it this way, it was like a research project being done by students. Though because of the political danger to it, the theme of this project was far too volatile.

“The last time, you said that we were simply two students meeting in the archives as well, didn’t you? A joint strategy meeting, was it? It may be somewhat imprudent of me in such a situation as this, but I feel somewhat happy to hear that.”

I could tell that Alfina let just a little tension out of her shoulders. She was likely carrying this burden all on her own until now. I was frankly still incredulous as to whether seeing the future is really possible. In economic terms, this was a tail risk. I couldn’t possibly ignore it. I think the other name for this is a black swan. The one who brought the news over was a girl more like a white swan, though, so what’s up with that?

And as such idle thoughts passed through my mind, Alfina looked up at me with a bashful smile.

“Um, but in that case... could you maybe... call me Alfina? I think calling me Your Highness all the time is somewhat unsuitable for intermingling.”

And at the very last moment, she made a fairly difficult to handle request. The quiet girl was making a declaration of her will. If I accepted, it would mean limiting the amount of freedom I have over controlling my distance with her.

Well, it really is a little late for that. At the very least, until this project comes to an end...

“Very well. Then...”

Just as I was about to call my classmate by her name, light suddenly poured into the archive. And on the other side of the opened door was a black shadow, the light from the library at their back.

I instinctively stood in front of Alfina. The silhouette of the intruder was projected against the wall. A girl with a ponytail, with the reflection of a long and narrow light visible in her hand.

“Why the hell are you together with the princess?!” She drew her sword before even speaking. Now that I think of it, I think I might have heard knocking earlier. Did Alfina tell her to come pick her up at the archive?

“Stop that, Clau. I’m the one who called Ricardo here.”

“Wha—?! N-No way... Y-You bastard...” Claudia turned bright red. The pubescent lady was discovered alone behind closed doors with a man, so what was her pubescent guard imagining right now?

The sight of the bare blade of her sword trembling in the air was terrifying. Even if done in ill humor, there’s a difference in our social status regardless of my potential innocence.

“Please calm down, Miss Adel. Your Highness, that manner of phrasing will beckon misunderstanding.”

“...Oh! Ummm, uh... Right. Ricardo is familiar with the western region because of his family’s work. So I asked him for advice regarding the prophecy.”

Nothing like a truth that can only be heard as an excuse, is there? Coupled together with Alfina’s panic, it had no persuasive power at all. However, Claudia pushed me aside upon hearing that and stepped up in front of her lady.

“Your Highness. You mustn’t speak of the prophecy anymore.”

“Clau. But... I...”

“Please!” Her attitude towards her lady was far too strong. It even made the hostility she had directed towards me with the point of her sword fly away.

“Sir? What was that shouting just now?” Mia came running over from further within the archive with a stack of account books in hand. Claudia looked at Mia, and the assumption she had in her mind crumbled to pieces.

“Miss Adel. Just as you can see, I was not the only one here together with Her Highness. You may not be aware, but Mia is also a resident of the west. Could you please believe us, Madam?”

Claudia looked at both me and Mia, and finally returned her sword to its sheath.

“Ricardo. You must never disclose that the princess is paying undue attention to the prophecy,” Claudia said to me in a subdued voice.

“I promise,” I replied immediately. I could see Alfina tremble with a start behind Claudia. However, I put my hand on the half-open door of the archive, and added one more thing. “Then, please excuse us, Princess Alfina.”

I pushed the door open and left the archives. Mia followed behind me as she glared at Claudia. I could see Alfina suddenly raise her head on the other side of the door. It seemed she realized I responded to her declaration of will with a declaration of will of my own.

*

“So it really was impossible.”

“My apologies.”

One week later, we gathered once more in the archive. We thought that perhaps Alfina wouldn’t be able to come, but she was here with us again. However, it seemed that trying to get information out of Claudia really was a useless exercise.

On the contrary, Claudia herself wasn’t at the Academy today. In her stead was a commoner student who’d just enrolled. Apparently, she was a maid who had served Alfina for a while now. She wasn’t in the room with us, but standing by just outside the director’s office.

“Clau hasn’t returned from her family home since going to confirm things with her father...”

I see, so that means Viscount Adel doesn’t want his family to get involved.

“Understood. Then we need to search for another source of information.” I groaned at the data in my hand that I put together with Mia.

I couldn’t think of any other intermediary we could use. Do we give up and just search the archive for the data we need? It’d take too much time, and there’s not much hope that we can find what we need either.

“Umm, actually, I also consulted my aunt about it... In the end, she did tell me to stop prying, but if I had to know no matter what, she did tell me of someone well-versed in monster floods,” Alfina said. An unexpected recovery.

“Uhh, and who would that be...?”

“He doesn’t really speak of the past much, so I didn’t know this myself, but...” Alfina held her palm out towards the door further within the archive that was for her exclusive use.

*

“A monster flood will not occur in the west.” The first thing the withered old man, Director Fulsig, said to me was curt and to the point.

When we opened the door in the archive, we found what looked like a regular office. The slate board along the wall, and the large map of the entire Kingdom next to it, really did give the feeling of an educational institution.

The faint smell of chemicals, somewhat like ink, suddenly assaulted my nose. I could see over a dozen black sheets of paper affixed to the wall. Looking closer, the table meant for guests had similar papers all over it.

The owner of the room was an old man who looked like he could crumble to dust any time now. He was likely over seventy years old. His white eyebrows drooped like fishhooks, and he had thin eyes with a tapered nose, gaunt cheeks, plus a long white beard. His gaze at me practically screamed, “What the hell do you want?”

Apparently, holding the position of Director of the Library here at the Royal Academy was considered quite the successful career for the fourth son of a baron. Although if what Alfina said about this man’s previous accomplishments were true, it’d be a ridiculously leisurely post for him with absolutely nothing to do.

That’s because this old man, through more than twenty years of steady observation and logical investigation, pretty much single-handedly invented the means for predicting monster floods.

“I see. I see, I see...” His first reaction wasn’t bad. The way he listened to Alfina eagerly explain the image of the prophecy and the location of the village we derived from it was the spitting image of a kind old man. What flipped over his gentleness, like that of a grandfather looking over his granddaughter on her first errand, was Alfina introducing me as her friend.

His gentle eyes suddenly took on a sharp glint to them, and were glaring daggers at the commoner who didn’t know his place. There were in fact two commoners here, but Mia was given tea cakes.

And so, when I proposed my hypothesis of a monster flood occurring, he bluntly shut it down. You really don’t have to glare; there’s no need to worry. I know we live in different worlds. The reason it ended up like this is a product of coincidences and interests twisting together, is all. Actually, I tried my best to keep my distance, and for some reason I ended up on this insane research project instead.

“Could you please provide your opinion from a purely hypothetical standpoint?” I asked.

“Hypothetical... you say.” He bit at the technical term just a little. It did feel like he was wondering why an amateur dared utter such a word, but it’s still better than refusal.

“As a result of our investigation, we’ve found this to be the hypothesis with the highest probability to occur among all possibilities we could think of, given the situation. Thus, we would appreciate your instruction regarding the topic as an authority on monster floods, Director.”

I did my best impression of a Buddha to try and not let my sour expression show. There’s an old Japanese proverb that goes something like, “even a Buddha will only tolerate three acts of contempt.” In this world, if a commoner were to look at a noble with a sour expression three times, that would truly be the path to becoming a Buddha. For the commoner, of course.

“If we’re just talking empty speculation, there are countless possibilities. Even if the disaster the princess speaks of truly occurs, what do you think the probability that your hypothesis is correct would truly be?”

The obstinate old man moved his hand from the table to his chin in an annoyed manner. However, the way he cynically had one eye open seemed nostalgic to me. It reminded me of the attitude my professor in university took when he was testing me. And above all else, that was the perfect question to start with.

“Let’s see... Maybe about twenty percent, I would say?” I looked at the old man’s nails, dyed by what looked like black paint, as I calmly replied.

“Huh?!” Alfina raised her voice in surprise.

Well, I guess that’s fair; probabilities under fifty percent aren’t terribly reliable. Even more so for a situation where human lives are at risk. However, not considering the feelings and circumstances of other people is exactly how people like him function.

Judging from the choice of words this geezer chose, the test he planted behind his cranky attitude, and from what I’ve heard of his accomplishments, I expected him to be a certain type of man and bet on it.

“And why exactly are you considering an event with such a low probability?” He asked, as he pressed his fingers against his chin and began scratching away at a fixed rhythm.

“Just as I said before, twenty percent is still the highest probability I’ve worked out. In other words, if we consider that we had ten different hypotheses, the likelihood of each of the other nine is less than ten percent. So, the one hypothesis with more than a twenty percent chance becomes our primary consideration. Isn’t that just the nature of making estimations regarding the future? That said, though, the biggest reason is...” I pointed a bold look at the old man. “A monster flood is preventable. In short, we know to some extent that there is a mechanism behind their outbreaks. That being the case, the hypothesis is worth considering.”

“To some extent... you say.” The old man muttered in an unamused manner. However, the rhythm of his fingers didn’t stop.

“Putting it another way, Director, if you were to lend us your wisdom, we could reduce the probability to ten percent, or even zero. If we’re capable of confirming a monster flood will occur, then that will be fine as it is. And if we can confirm otherwise, then we can move on to the next hypothesis,” I answered him without averting my gaze at all.

“And so you came here... I see... I see...” Fulsig finally raised his chin, and turned up one cheek. The wrinkles around his lips were warped with cynicism. “You say that you want to borrow my wisdom. But what you need is neither my wisdom, nor my assessment. In truth, you’re just telling me to hand over my knowledge, right?”

“That’s not the case. Ricardo is—” Alfina began to cut in.

“You’re mostly right. That’s the best way to put a specialist to practical use, after all.”

“Ricardo?! Um, I mean...” Alfina looked at both me and Fulsig in a troubled manner, while Mia had a “Oh, great, this again” look. Come on, I picked the right partner for it this time.

Fulsig remained silent and stood from his seat, and Alfina rose halfway from hers to try and stop him. The old scholar came to a stop in front of the slate board on the wall. Evidence that it had been written upon and erased many times over could be seen. Numbers that hadn’t quite been fully erased were visible in the corners. A large map of the entire Kingdom was affixed next to the slate, and symbols were placed atop several locations on the western mountain range.

“Monsters base their territory on the flow of mana. In other words, they’re located around the ley lines of the mountain ranges and the Loewer Wald adjacent to them. Normally, the monsters never leave these places. In short, the definition of a monster flood is...”

And so, his lecture began.