1 Jonathan, S. (2000). The Fate of the Earth (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press), p. 3.
2 Calculations are based on the following deployed strategic warhead totals: 1986, a combined total of 22, 526 (US – 12, 314, USSR – 10, 212); 2006, a combined total of 8835 (US – 5021, USSR -3814).
3 Norris, R.S. and Kristensen, H.M. (2007). NRDC Nuclear Notebook, U.S Nuclear Forces, 2007. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2007, p. 79; Norris, R.S. and Kristensen, H.M. (2007). NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Russian Nuclear Forces, 2007. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists March/April 2007, p. 61; McKinzie, M.G., Cochran, T.B., Norris, R.S., and Arkin, W.M. (2001). The U.S. Nuclear War Plan: A Time For Change (New York: Natural Resources Defense Council), p. 42, 73, 84.
4 Bruce, G.B. (2007). Primed and Ready. The Defense Monitor: The Newsletter of the Center for Defense Information, XXXVI (3), 2–3.
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.
7 Ibid.
8 Nunn, S. (2004). Speech to the Carnegie International Non-proliferation Conference, June 21, 2004. www.ProliferationNews.org.
9 Bruce, G.B. et al. (1998). Accidental nuclearwar- a Post-Cold Warassessment. The New England Journal of Medicine, 1326–1332.
10 Eddy, L. (2004). Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation (Ithaca: Cornell University Press). http://www.gwu.edu/-nsarchiv/NSAEBB/ NSAEBB108/index.htm
11 Office of Technology Assessment. (1979). The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC), p. 15, 35; The Effects of NuclearWeapons. Atomic Archive at http://www.atomicarchive.com/ Effects/
12 See note 9.
13 McKinzie, M.G., Cochran, T.B., Norris, R.S., and Arkin, W.M. (2001). The U.S Nuclear War Plan: A Time For Change (New York: Natural Resources Defense Council), pp ix-xi. NRDC used computer software and un classified databases to model a nuclear conflict and approximate the effects of the use of nuclear weapons, based on an estimate of the U.S. nuclearwar plan (SIOP).
14 The U.SNuclear War Plan.p. 130.
15 Office of Technology Assessment (1979). The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC), p. 8. Russian casualties are smaller that U.S. causalities because a higher percentage of Russians still live in rural areas and the lower-yield U.S. weapons produce less fallout.
16 The Effects of Nuclear War, p. 4–5.
17 The Effects of Nuclear War, p. 8.
18 Batcher, R.T. (2004). The consequences of an Indo-Pakistani nuclearwar. International Studies Review 6, 137.
19 Turco, R.P., Toon, O.B., Ackerman, T.P., Pollack, J.B., and Sagan, C. (1983). Nuclear winter: global consequences of mutliple nuclear explosions. Science, 222, 1290.
20 Turco, R.P., Toon, O.B., Ackerman, T.P., Pollack, J.B., and Sagan, C. (1990). Climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclearwinter. Science, 247, 166.
21 Ibid., p. 174.
22 Sagan, C. and Turco, R.P. (1993). Nuclearwinterin the Post-Cold Warera. Journal of Peace Research, 30(4), 369.
23 Toon, O.B., Robock, A., Turco, R.P., Bardeen, C., Oman, L., and Stenchikov, G.L. (2007). Consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts. Science, 315, 1224–1225.
24 Ibid., p. 11823.
25 Sagan, S.D. and Waltz, K.N. (2003). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: W.W. Norton &Company), p. 115.
26 Krepon, M. (2004). From Confrontation to Cooperation (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center). http://www.stimson.org/southasia/pubs.cfm?ID=197
27 Chari, P.R. (2004). Nuclear Restraint, Nuclear Risk Reduction, and the Security – Insecurity Paradox in South Asia (Washington, D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center).
28 Perkovich, G., Mathew, J., Cirincione, J., Gottemoeller, R., Wolfsthal, J. (2005). Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), pp. 24, 34, 39.
29 Shultz, G., Kissinger, H., Perry, W., and Nunn, S. (2007). A world free ofnuclear weapons. The Wall Street Journal. Eastern edition, NY, January 4, 2007, pg. A15.
30 See, for example, the excellent suggestions made by Sally Horn, a State Department representative to the NPT Review Conference in May 2005, summarized in Cirincione, J. (2005). ‘No Easy Out’, Carnegie Analysis. www.ProliferationNews.org
31 In 1987 the Soviet Union deployed 2380 long-range missiles and China approximately 20. The numberdeclined to 689 by 2007 (669 Russian; 20 Chinese).
32 Sagan, S.D. and Waltz, K.N. (2003). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W.W. Norton &Company), p. 4.
33 Potter, W. (2005). Carnegie International Non-proliferation Conference, 2005, Panel on ‘The New Look ofUS Nonproliferation Policy’. www.ProliferationNews.org.
34 Oppenheimer, J.R. (June 1946). The International Control of Atomic Energy. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.