1. THE ARAB WORLD’S TWILIGHT ZONE
1. “The American–Syrian Crisis and the End of Constructive Engagement,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 5, no. 4, April 2003.
2. Member of US embassy staff in Damascus, Syria, interview with the author, July 2008.
3. “Background Note: Syria,” US State Department Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, March 18, 2011, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580.htm.
4. Former ambassador to Syria Edward Djerejian, interview with the author, April 2008.
5. The embargo included all countries designated as US state sponsors of international terrorism under the “Embargoed Countries,” US Department of State, Directorate of Defence Trade Controls, 56 FR 55630, http://www.pmddtc.state.gov/docs/frnotices/56FR55630.PDF.
6. Following its addition to the state sponsor of terrorism list in 1993, Sudan remains the only other designated country with which the United States maintains diplomatic relations.
7. The request was still pending as of March 2010.
8. Michael Evans, “Syrian Pipeline Helps Iraq Evade UN Sanctions,” The Times, December 16, 2002.
9. A book published in 2001 in Syria by the defense minister Mustafa Tlass was rumored to have said that Rifaat received a large chunk of Syria’s foreign-exchange reserves in return for his peaceful departure.
10. Robert McMahon, “Syria’s U.S. Ambassador: Syria Can Play ‘Constructive Role’ in Resolving Lebanese War,” Council on Foreign Relations, August 7, 2006.
11. Alfred Prados, “Syria: U.S. Relations and Bilateral Issues,” Congressional Research Service, January 23, 2003. Syria reportedly provided intelligence stemming from its interrogations of a German-Syrian national, Mohammed Haydar Zammar, suspected of playing a role in the September 11 attacks. Damascus also provided information on Mohamed Atta, one of those directly involved in the World Trade Center attack, who worked in Aleppo in the 1990s. Valuable information was also given about Ma’mun Darkazanli, a Syrian businessman who allegedly served as a financial conduit to al-Qaeda members. See International Crisis Group Report, no. 23, Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges, February 11, 2004. See also Seymour M. Hersh, “The Syrian Bet,” The New Yorker, July 28, 2003. However, Syrian intelligence did not give American investigators access to Zammar, leading analysts to question the degree of cooperation. See Ryan Mauro, “Has Damascus Stopped Supporting Terrorists?,” Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2009, pages 61–67, citing Washington Institute senior fellow Matthew Levitt.
12. Syria, which was the uncontested candidate of the UN’s Asia Regional Group for a rotating seat on the Security Council, received support from 160 of 178 nations voting in the UN General Assembly. As is the case in all elections to the Security Council, the United States did not disclose its vote. “Syria Gains Seat on U.N. Security Council,” United Press International, October 8, 2001.
13. My hard feelings about Egypt did not last long, and I continue to enjoy visits there and value my Egyptian friends. See Andrew J. Tabler, “Making Peace with Egypt,” Institute of Current World Affairs (newsletter), May 2006.
2. THE GREAT UNRAVELING
1. “U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the U.N. Security Council,” White House press release, February 5, 2003, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030205-1.html#20.
2. UN Resolution 68 1441 became the basis for the US-led “coalition of the willing,” which invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003.
3. Cuba and Yemen voted against Security Council Resolution 678, which gave legal justification for the Gulf War of 1990–1991. It passed by a vote of 12 to 2 (China abstaining) on November 29, 1990.
4. “Security Council Wraps Up Two Days of Debate on Iraq,” UN News Centre, October 17, 2002, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Cr=iraq&Cr1=&NewsID=5078.
5. Nicholas Blanford, “London Journalist Arrested in Syria,” The Times, January 1, 2003, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article807352.ece.
6. Asma al-Assad, interview with the author, February 2003; CV of Asma al-Assad.
7. Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act, December 12, 2003, Section 2, Point 9.
8. As-Safir (Lebanon), March 27, 2003.
9. Neil MacFarquhar, “For Arabs, New Jihad Is in Iraq,” New York Times, April 15, 2003; Gary C. Gambill, “The American-Syrian Crisis and the End of Constructive Engagement,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, April 2003.
10. Neil MacFarquhar, “Syria Wants U.S. to Lose War, Its Foreign Minister Declares,” New York Times, March 31, 2003.
11. As cited in Gambill, “The American-Syrian Crisis.”
12. Ibid.
13. MacFarquhar, “For Arabs, New Jihad.”
14. As cited in Gambill, “The American-Syrian Crisis.”
15. Bill Gertz, “Iraqi Oil Pipeline to Syria Closed,” Washington Times, April 16, 2003, http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030416-1723360.htm.
16. As cited in Gambill, “The American-Syrian Crisis.”
17. Neil MacFarquhar, “Syria Fears the Unknown: What’s Behind U.S. Threats,” New York Times, April 15, 2003.
18. As cited in Gambill, “The American-Syrian Crisis.”
19. Paul Kerr, “Senior US Officials Voice Concern over Syria’s WMD Capability,” Arms Control Today, May 2003, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_05/syria_may03.
20. Ziad Abdelnour, “The US-Syrian Crisis: Why Diplomacy Failed,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, October 2003.
21. Judy Miller, “Senior U.S. Official to Level Weapons Charges Against Syria,” New York Times, September 13, 2003.
3. PARADISE LOST
1. “Trying to Fit In,” Syria Today, zero edition, March 2004.
2. “Bush Signs Syria Sanctions Bill,” CNN.com, December 13, 2003, http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/12/12/bush.syria/.
3. “US Sanctions Are Work of Israel’s Friends in Congress: Syria,” AFP, December 11, 2003.
4. Andrew J. Tabler, “US Sanctions Unjust, Unjustified,” Daily Star, May 13, 2004.
5. Executive Order 13338—Blocking Property of Certain Persons and Prohibiting the Export of Certain Goods to Syria, Federal Register, May 13, 2004.
6. Ibid.
4. PRESSURE YIELDS RESULTS
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in the Institute of Current World Affairs member newsletter.
1. “Lebanon’s Government Quits in Face of Mass Protest,” Reuters, February 28, 2005.
2. Andrew J. Tabler, “The Gathering Storm,” Institute of Current World Affairs (newsletter), March 2005.
3. “Security Council Declares Support for Free, Fair Presidential Election,” Security Council press release 8181, September 2, 2004, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8181.doc.htm.
4. Nicholas Blanford, Killing Mr. Lebanon (New York: I.B. Tauris, 2006).
5. “Rice on Death of Former Lebanon PM Rafik Hariri,” US Department of State press release, February 14, 2005.
6. White House press conference transcript, February 17, 2005.
7. Joel Brinkley, “Rice Says Syria Is at Least Indirectly Responsible for the Blast,” New York Times, February 17, 2005.
8. “Syria Must Withdraw from Lebanon: Bush,” Daily Times, February 24, 2005.
9. “Rice Turns Up the Heat on Syria,” BBC News, March 2, 2005.
10. Hassan Fattah, “Saudis Join Call for Syrian Force to Quit Lebanon,” New York Times, March 3, 2005.
11. Robin Wright, “U.S. Rejects Syria’s Withdrawal Plan for Lebanon,” Washington Post, March 6, 2005.
12. “Adviser to the Syrian President: Establish a Foreign Investment and We Expect Revenues of $7 Billion over the Next Five Years,” Al-Sharq al-Awsat, February 26, 2005.
13. The initial signatories of the Damascus Declaration were the NDR, the Kurdistan Democratic Alliance, the Kurdish Democratic Front, the Committee for the Revival of Civil Society and the Future Party. Prominent opposition figures included Riad Seif, Jawdat Sa’id, Dr. Abd al-Razzaq Id, Samir Nashar, Dr. Fida al-Hourani, Dr. Adil Zakkar, Abd al-Karim al-Dahhak, Haitham al-Maleh, and Nayif Qaysiyah. Damascus Declaration, October 16, 2005.
14. Sami Moubayed, interview with the author, Damascus, Syria, October 20, 2005.
15. “Landis: Damascus Rife with Rumors on Whether UN’s Lebanese Investigation Implicates Syrian Leadership,” Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor, Council on Foreign Relations, October 21, 2005.
16. United Nations Security Council, 5,297th meeting, October 31, 2005.
17. “Security Council Demands Syria’s Unambiguous, Immediate Response to Commission Investigating Assassination of Former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri,” Security Council 5,329th Meeting (PM), December 15, 2005.
18. Abdel Khalim Khaddam, interview on Al Arabiya, December 30, 2005, transcript, http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2005/12/31/19936.html#8.
5. THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in the Institute of Current World Affairs member newsletter.
1. Katherine Zoepf, “Syrian Leader Says His Nation Is Being Made a Scapegoat,” New York Times, November 10, 2005.
2. Bashar al-Assad, “Comprehensive Political Speech Delivered by H.E. President Bashar al-Assad at the Damascus Auditorium,” official copy of speech issued by Tishreen newspaper, November 10, 2005.
3. Sami Moubayed, “Allied to, Created by or Friends of the Ba’ath,” Gulf News, March 7, 2006. Moubayed predicted that a multiparty law would be issued within a month. As of mid-2011, the law had yet to be enacted.
4. Michel Kilo, interview with the author, Damascus, Syria, March 24, 2006.
5. “Michel Kilo Detained,” Syria Monitor, May 15, 2006, http://syriamonitor.typepad.com/news/2006/05/michel_kilo_det.html.
6. NO VOICE LOUDER THAN THE CRY OF BATTLE
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in the Institute of Current World Affairs member newsletter.
1. “Mic Picks Up Bush: ‘Get Hezbollah to Stop This S***,”’ Times Online, July 17, 2006.
2. Helene Cooper and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria Away from Iran,” New York Times, July 23, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/washington/23diplo.html.
3. Seymour Hersh, “Watching Lebanon: Washington’s Interests in Israel’s War,” The New Yorker, August 21, 2006.
7. PLAYING WITH FIRE IN EASTERN SYRIA
1. George W. Bush, “President’s Address to the Nation,” White House, Washington, DC, January 10, 2009, http://georgewbushwhitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html.
2. “Iran, Forerunner in Syria Investment Among Non-Arab States,” Islamic Republic News Agency, January 24, 2007, http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-237/0701242933180528.htm.
3. For a partial account of this meeting, see Andrew Lee Butters, “Guess Who Is Coming to Dinner,” Time, February 8, 2007.
4. Andrew Tabler, “The Shiitization of Syria?,” Executive, June 2009.
5. Grand mufti of the Syrian Arab Republic Ahmed al-Hassoun, interview with the author, March 2007.
6. Andrew Tabler, “Catalytic Converters,” New York Times Magazine, April 29, 2007.
7. Barack Obama, interview on MSNBC, January 11, 2007. Viewed via YouTube, July 10, 2009.
8. Joseph R. Biden Jr., “A Plan to Hold Iraq Together,” Washington Post, August 24, 2006.
9. Elizabeth Williamson, “Pelosi Plans Trip to Syria Next Week,” Washington Post, March 31, 2007.
10. “Bush: Pelosi Meeting With Syria’s Assad Sends Wrong Signal,” Fox News, April 3, 2007.
11. Hassan Fattah, “Pelosi’s Delegation Presses Syrian Leader on Militants,” New York Times, April 4, 2007.
12. “Pratfall in Damascus,” Washington Post, April 5, 2007.
13. US diplomat, interview with the author, March 2008.
14. CNN newscast, May 3, 2007.
15. Dominic Moran, “Rice–Syrian FM Meet Eclipses Iraq Plan,” International Relations and Security Network (ISN), May 4, 2007.
16. “Syria: Writer Michel Kilo Sentenced,” PEN, May 16, 2007.
17. For another account of the polls, see Hassan Fattah, “Syrian President’s Fortunes Revive for Election,” New York Times, May 27, 2007.
18. “Dialogue with Syria: Opportunity or Ambush?,” Saban Center for Middle East Policy, transcript, page 79; Adam Zagorin, “Syria in Bush’s Cross Hairs,” Time December 19, 2006.
19. Andrew Tabler, “To Help Israel, Help Syria,” New York Times, August 5, 2006.
20. Hugh Naylor, “Tired of Energy Ills, Syrians Doubt the West Is to Blame,” New York Times, August 15, 2007.
21. Nicholas Blanford, “Why Did Israeli Planes Enter Syria?,” Time, September 10, 2007.
22. For an excellent account of statements following the raid, see “06 September 2007 Strike” on GlobalSecurity.org, last modified October 27, 2007.
23. Yoav Stern and Mazal Mualem, “Israel Mum on Any IAF Entry into Syria Airspace,” September 6, 2007, http://www.haaretz.com/.
24. Glen Kessler, “Syria–N. Korea Reports Won’t Stop Talks,” Washington Post, September 15, 2007.
25. “Extracting Uranium from Phosphates,” Arms Control Wonk (blog), September 20, 2007, http://armscontrolwonk.com/.
26. “06 September 2007 Airstrike,” GlobalSecurity.org, October 29, 2007, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/070906-airstrike.htm.
27. Ron Ben-Yishai, “Ynet Reporter Visits Site of ‘Syria Operation,’” Yedioth Ahronoth, September 26, 2007, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3453679,00.html. For another account of the visit, see Hugh Naylor, “Syria Tells Journalist Israeli Raid Did Not Occur,” New York Times, October 9, 2007.
28. American and Israeli sources later said that they didn’t push the nuclear issue immediately so that Assad would not overreact and launch a retaliatory strike on Israel.
29. General David H. Petraeus, “Report to Congress on the Situation in Iraq,” September 10–11, 2007.
30. Richard A. Oppel, “Foreign Fighters in Iraq Are Tied to Allies of U.S.,” New York Times, November 22, 2007.
8. WEATHERING THE STORM
1. Nicholas Blanford, “Hizballah Mourns Its Shadowy Hero,” Time, Feburary 13, 2008.
2. Ibrahim Hamidi, “No More Secrets,” Syria Today, March 2008.
3. Andrew Tabler, “Speculation Rages over Imad Moughniyah Assassination,” Eighth Gate (blog), February 13, 2008, http://www.andrewtabler.com/2008/02/speculation-rages-overimad-moughniyah.html.
4. “Iran Joins Syria in Hunt for Killers of Militant,” Associated Press, February 15, 2008.
5. “An Official Information Source Denies Reports on the Formation of a Joint Committee to Investigate Moghnia Assassination,” Syrian Arab News Agency, February 16, 2008.
6. Andrew Tabler, “The U.S. Can Help Tackle Syrian Corruption,” Daily Star, July 29, 2008.
7. “Syria: From Isolation to Acceptance,” roundtable presentation at the Henry L. Stimson Center, April 24, 2008.
8. “Syria’s Covert Nuclear Reactor at Al Kibar,” Central Intelligence Agency, April 24, 2008.
9. Embassy of the Syrian Arab Republic, press release, April 24, 2008.
10. Fay Ferguson, “Radioactive Allegations,” Syria Today, May 2008.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. For a summary of the dispute, see “Perhaps It Was the Genie in the Lamp?,”
14. Imad Moustapha, interview by the author and Robert Malley, February 2008.
15. Nicholas Blanford, “Spectre of War Returns to Haunt Lebanon,” The Times, May 8, 2008.
16. “Hezbollah Takes Over West Beirut,” BBC News, May 9, 2008.
17. Ibid.
18. “Israel Announces Indirect Peace Talks with Syria,” DPA, May 21, 2008.
19. “Official: Latest Israel–Syria Talks End in ‘Positive Atmosphere,’” June 16, 2008, http://www.haaretz.com/.
20. Steven Erlanger and Katrin Bennhold, “Sarkozy Helps to Bring Syria Out of Isolation,” New York Times, July 14, 2008.
21. For another account of Syrian coverage of the event, see Andrew Lee Butters, “The Syrians Take Paris,” Time, July 14, 2008.
22. “No Comment,” Euronews Television, July 14, 2008, recovered from YouTube as “Cat-and-Mouse between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Paris” on August 20, 2009, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY5Z4OKq28o.
23. “Syria’s Assad Stirs Controversy at France’s Bastille Day,” AFP, July 14, 2008.
24. “IAEA Team to Inspect Syria’s Alleged Nuclear Site,” DPA, June 22, 2008.
25. This paragraph is a summary of Radwan Ziadeh’s chapter on Syria in Freedom of Association in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: 60 Years after the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Copenhagen: Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network, December 2008), pages 44–47.
26. Brookings Institution, “Engaging Syria: New Negotiations, Old Challenges,” July 23, 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/–/media/Files/events/2008/0723_syria/0723_syria.pdf.
27. Ibid.
28. Sami Moubayed, “Driving a Truck Through Syrian Loopholes,” Asia Times, August 6, 2008.
EPILOGUE: THE EXPECTATIONS GAP AND THE ADVENT OF THE ARAB SPRING
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in PolicyWatch (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateI05.php?&newActiveSubNav=PolicyWatch/PeaceWatch&activeSubNavLink=templateI05.php%3F&newActiveNav=analysis), an online publication of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
1. “’US Helicopter Raid’ Inside Syria,” BBC News, October 27, 2008.
2. “Syrian Witness Reacts to US Raid,” BBC News, October 27, 2008.
3. Albert Aji, “U.S. Special Forces Launch Rare Attack Inside Syria,” Associated Press, October 26, 2008.
4. Eric Schmidt and Mark Mazzetti, “Secret Order Lets U.S. Raid Al Qaeda in Many Countries,” New York Times, November 9, 2008.
5. Sami Moubayed, “American Dream Expelled from Syria,” Asia Times, November 4, 2008.
6. Despite the fact that Moubayed published a denial on the blog Syria Comment many journalists—especially in Israel—believed Moubayed’s views reflected those of the Assad regime at that time. For a thoughtful discussion of the issue by one Israeli journalist who quoted Moubayed, see “Yoav Stern Discusses His Coverage of Syrian Affairs,” Syria Comment (blog), November 9, 2008, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=1500. For further background of Syria’s spring 2009 public relations offensive to woo Obama, see Andrew J. Tabler, “Will Mitchell’s Trip Bypass Damascus?,” April 13, 2009, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3043.
7. For a discussion of “Syrian triumphalism” and its ultimate impact on engagement with the Obama administration, see Steven Heydemann, “Why Syria Needs to Get a Grip,” Foreign Policy, April 20, 2010, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/20/why_syria_needs_to_get_a_grip.
8. For more information, see “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic,” Director General’s Report, International Atomic Energy Agency, February 18, 2010.
9. Cecile Hennion, “Dialogue de sourds entre Bachar Al-Assad et Ban Ki-moon,” Le Monde, June 28, 2007.
10. Excerpt from Andrew Tabler, “Assad Clenches His Fist,” Foreign Policy, August 28, 2009.
11. “Clinton Presses Syria to Abandon Iran, Halt Hizbullah Arms,” AFP, February 25, 2010.
12. Khaled Yacoub Oweis, “Syria and Iran Defy Clinton in Show of Unity,” Reuters, February 25, 2010.
13. Charles Levinson and Jay Solomon, “Syria Gave Scuds to Hezbollah, U.S. Says,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2010.
14. Jay Solomon, “Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2011.
15. Anthony Shadid, “Reviled Tycoon, Assad’s Cousin, Resigns in Syria,” New York Times, June 16, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/world/middleeast/17syria.html.
16. Excerpted from Andrew Tabler, “Another Deeply Disappointing Speech by Bashar al-Assad,” CNN Global Public Square (blog), June 20, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/20/another-deeply-disappointing-speech-by-bashar-al-assad/.
17. The following argument is based on an edited excerpt from Andrew Tabler, “Twisting Assad’s Arm,” Foreign Policy, April 14, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/twisting_assads_arm.
18. Jay Solomon, “U.S. Considers Push for U.N. Action in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657504575411762167580080.html.