My purpose in creating player profiles for 15 golfers is to see if the numbers have a story to tell. My conclusions about strengths and weaknesses are based solely on the numerical ratings, so it would be interesting to compare my data-driven conclusions to those of the experts, the players who play the Tour, and the coaches, reporters, and others who watch and analyze every aspect of golf.
There were several criteria for selection. All players were in my data set for each year from 2004 to 2009 (except for John Daly in 2009). I took the dominant players of the era—Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Vijay Singh, and Ernie Els—and asked, What makes them the best? I also included players who had been in and out of the top ten and wondered, Can we draw any conclusions about which skills cause players to jump into or drop out of the top echelon? Finally, I wanted a few solid players who are sometimes in contention and have won tournaments but are never mentioned as likely winners of a major. Can we identify characteristics that separate them from the top players?
For each player and each year, I list their rating and rank (using the Total Strokes system described in chapter 11) and then each of the components of the rating system. For example, values in the column labeled “L-F” correspond to the players’ ratings hitting from the fairway from 50 to 200 yards out. (Top tens for the raw ratings are given in chapter 11, and complete lists are at www.roanoke.edu/mcsp/minton/ShotLink.html.) The entry here reflects the actual contribution of that category toward the rating. That is, I assumed that the average player hits 10 such shots, so the actual rating at 50 to 200 yards is multiplied by 10 in the Total Strokes formula. This multiplied rating (rounded to two digits) is shown in the tables. Thus, we can see that in 2008 Tiger gained 0.71 strokes per round on the average pro with his excellent approach shots from 50 to 200 yards from the fairway, plus another 0.12 strokes from the rough. You can identify strengths and weaknesses for a given year by looking left to right, and then look top to bottom to see if these strengths and weaknesses are repeated over time or were one-year anomalies.
Remember that the ShotLink data are limited to PGA Tour events and exclude the majors and overseas tournaments. For this reason, golfers such as Ernie Els and Retief Goosen who frequently play outside the United States may be misrepresented here. Much of their golfing year does not register in my data sets. This also explains why Padraig Harrington, on whom I had very little data for 2004 and 2005, is not in this appendix.
LEGEND |
|
Rating |
= total rating |
Putt |
= putting rating for round |
T-3 |
= rating for 4 par-3 tee shots |
T-4 |
= rating for 11 par-4 tee shots |
T-5 |
= rating for 3 par-5 tee shots |
L-F |
= rating for 10 approach shots of 50–200 yards from the fairway |
L-R |
= rating for 4 approach shots of 50–200 yards from the rough |
S-F |
= rating for 3 chips of 4–50 yards from the fairway |
S-R |
= rating for 3 chips of 4–50 yards from the rough |
Par5 |
= rating for 2 shots of 200–250 yards from the fairway |
Sand |
= rating for 1 shot from the sand |
From 2004 to 2009, Tiger was the best at putting and approach shots from the fairway. He was very strong on par-3 tee shots, 200- to 250-yard approach shots, all shots from the rough, and short shots from the fairway. His driving and bunker play was above average. The most impressive aspect of his stats is the consistently high number of large values in the table. He was just the best at almost everything. Until 2010, that is. I include his numbers here to document his unusual year. His putting dropped from consistently outstanding to mediocre, and his driving went from extremely good in 2009 to awful. Between putting and tee shots on par 4s and 5s, he rated more than 1.4 strokes per round worse in 2010 than in 2009. After having only four individual skills ratings below zero from 2005 to 2009, Tiger had five negative ratings in 2010. That said, his overall rating was still 0.62 strokes better than average, ranking him 41st. Only in the context of Tiger Woods’s career would we call this a disaster.
Phil is the only player other than Tiger to make the top ten overall each year from 2004 to 2008, but he fell to 16th in 2009. The most dramatic difference between Phil and Tiger’s numbers is in the putting column. Phil lags behind Tiger by over a half-stroke per round in putting efficiency. Like Tiger, Phil has very few negative entries. There are no noticeable deficiencies in his game, other than his strengths not being strong enough. His most impressive numbers are approach shots from the fairway, long and short. His wedge game, which is highly acclaimed, ranks near the top (categories S-F, S-R, and Sand).
Since bottoming out in 2004, Steve Stricker has been in the top ten every year. His top ten in 2005 is actually an interesting comment on the rating system. He had lost his playing card, so his 2005 record was compiled from the events for which he could qualify or receive a sponsor’s exemption. He finished 162nd on the money list, having to go back to Q-School to earn back his playing card. In spite of his poor money showing in 2005, the ratings indicate that he was playing as well as anybody (except You Know Who). He is excellent at putting, on long approach shots from the fairway, and on short shots of any type. These strengths enable him to stay near the top in spite of relatively weak driving statistics. In 2004, his driving was regularly costing him a full stroke per round. When his driving is only a little negative or positive, he is tough. He would be a great Captain’s Choice teammate, if you paired him with a great driver like J. B. Homes.
In the early 2000s, Vijay challenged Tiger for the number-one slot. His drop-off from being second overall in 2004 and 2005 to borderline top ten in 2006 and 2007 was (numerically, at least) due to driving problems. He was a half stroke or more above average in 2004, 2005, and 2008 for par-4 and par-5 tee shots and slightly below average in 2006. Vijay’s putting was average until 2008, when he started losing half a stroke per round to the field. His number-three ranking in 2008, while giving away four-tenths of a stroke on the greens, is remarkable. Vijay is consistently impressive with an iron or wedge in his hands but had an across-the-board drop in performance in 2009.
Ernie is another player who at one time was considered to be Tiger’s equal. Iron shots from the tee and the fairway show up as strong points each year. His putting slid from above average to average to below average in 2008 and 2009. Most of his ratings were worse in 2008, but I don’t know whether that was due to injuries, lack of confidence from not winning any tournaments in 2007 (even though his rating was high and he did well in the majors), or some other factor. His 2007 stats are all positive—one of the few examples in my records of someone rating above average in every category.
The six years covered by my data record one cycle in Sergio’s oscillation between elite player and good player. His top ten in 2007 followed several lackluster years, during which many doubted whether he would ever fulfill his enormous potential. His rating as a putter is very unusual. From putting ratings that are well below average (his rating in 2004 was 1.5 strokes per round worse than Tiger’s; that’s a lot of strokes to give away), he suddenly had a very good year on the greens in 2007. His stroke-per-round improvement from 2006 to 2007 came on the greens and fairway approach shots from 4–50 yards. Hit it close and make the putt!
The guy with the funny swing can play! Jim Furyk is known as someone who gets all he can out of his game. His statistics do not vary much from year to year, an indication that he works hard and concentrates well. His fall out of the top ten is attributable to putting woes. He suddenly dropped from being one of the top putters to average performance in 2007, then up to good in 2008, and back to excellent in 2009. He has two consistently negative categories—tee shots on par 5s and long approach shots from the rough. Strength is not his strength.
Choi emerged in 2007 as a top ten player. As with most players in this group who show a large change in ranking from one year to the next, Choi’s most notable area of change was in putting. Good putting ratings from 2004 to 2006 suddenly became top notch, and K. J. suddenly started winning important tournaments. His other short game stats also improved noticeably for 2007. However, his putting suddenly became average in 2009, accounting for much of the drop in his rating. Aside from putting and shots from inside of 50 yards, his ratings are most noteworthy for not being noteworthy: he rates as basically average in all other areas.
Everybody’s favorite barefoot, beer-bellied star golfer has fallen off the charts, but he was still playing well in 2004. I thought it would be interesting to check out his strengths (par-4 tee shots, long and short shots from the fairway) and weaknesses (none) when he was at the top of his game. Also, I wanted to see if he had deteriorated in all ways or only in isolated parts of his game. Putting jumps out: from above average in 2004 to bad in 2008, he lost a shot per round on the greens. He also lost some of his edge off the tees, and his iron game collapsed.
Justin Leonard gives us a case study of someone who dropped down in the rankings (to 147th in 2006) and then came back. Again, one of my questions is whether the causes of decline (and subsequent recovery) can be found in all parts of his game or only in specific areas. Putting is not the primary culprit, for once. A big improvement in putting in 2008 elevated him to number 6, but his below-average putting score in 2006 matched his rating in 2004. If you look at the categories that measure iron play (T-3, L-F, and L-R), you’ll see that he dropped from a total of 0.31 in 2005 to —0.17 in 2006, accounting for most of the half-stroke per round he dropped overall. In 2007, he bounced back to 0.21, and then in 2008 he further improved to 0.33. Putting is always important, but Justin gives us an example of iron play being critical. In 2009, it was also critical for him to hit the fairway, as his iron play from the fairway was exceptional while from the rough it was average.
My main image of Retief Goosen is of a golfer winning the U.S. Open by making every putt in sight. It was, therefore, surprising to see him rate below average as a putter in all years except for 2004, when he was winning his second Open, and again in 2009, when his resurgence was fueled almost exclusively by better putting. Along with putting, the numerical explanation for Goosen’s decline can be found in driving and approach shots from 50–200 yards. (Of course, add in putting and that’s most of the game.) His driving dropped from average (2004) and well above average (2005) to well below average in 2007 and 2008, before returning to average in 2009.
Scott Verplank is as steady as you would expect watching his swing. Year in and year out, he has been around the second group of 30 players in the rankings. His dip in 2005 was due to putting. Interestingly, his putting has never returned to its 2004 level, but he has compensated with improvements in other areas, especially performance from the rough. He is not strong with the driver but is consistently excellent from 50–200 yards.
Mike Weir’s numbers show a surprising amount of variation. His putting rating changed by at least one-third of a stroke per round most years. His overall rating tracks his putting rating nicely. His rating from the fairway at 50–200 yards was on an every-other-year cycle of good and average until a second straight good year in 2009. His short game ratings also fluctuate a fair amount, with the exception of a sterling bunker rating year after year. He is not strong with the driver or out of the rough from 50–200 yards. Like Kenny Perry, he had a heroic international event as “host”: the 2007 Presidents Cup in Montreal.
As Virginia Commonwealth University’s most famous golfing alumnus, John Rollins has had a solid career. He reached a peak ranking of 27th in 2004, when he had his best putting performance, but he has a lot of ratings that are near zero; he rates as an average golfer in most categories. Rollins is above average with the driver, but an above-average rating on long 200- to 250-yard fairway shots is balanced by below-average ratings from 50–200 yards. He is an example of a golfer who plays often and well, but rarely breaks out of the pack with a spectacular performance.
Kenny Perry is someone I would like to study more. My impression as a casual fan is that he can get extremely hot and win tournaments, but the evidence is that he often plays indifferent golf. I would be interested to see if there is numerical evidence of this. Perry is good with the driver and irons, but not so good (overall) with the putter or wedges. His only statistically strong year for putting was 2009, when he nearly won the Masters. He is a rare example in the data set of someone who raised his ranking (to 17th in 2005) almost entirely with good driving. He rated 0.82 on tee shots in 2005, with an overall rating of 0.88. In 2009, he rated 0.63 on tee shots, with an overall rating of 0.94. My hypothesis is that, when he putts and chips well, he is a force. As of 2010 Perry holds the record for most money made on the PGA Tour without winning a major. His performance in the 2008 Ryder Cup was special. He skipped the major championships to concentrate on qualifying for the Ryder Cup, which was held in his home state of Kentucky. He scored 2.5 points and was an emotional leader of the United States, which won, 16.5–11.5, for the first time since 1999.
