MIST FROM AN early morning sun shower rose from the pavement as General Wǔ-Dīng walked along the garden path. The secure government complex at Zhongnanhai allowed his aides and protection detail to follow at a relaxed distance while the general spoke on his mobile phone.
“I am glad to hear you are well, little tiger. General Fang can be demanding, but he is brilliant and an imaginative tactician. As my son, you will have to work twice as hard as your fellow officers to earn his respect, but you will learn much under his command. Tell me, when is your next leave?”
The general listened as he continued along the path.
“Excellent. Come visit us. I have been shuttling between North Africa and Shanghai a great deal lately and your mother will throw me out of my own airplane if I don’t spend a few weeks in Beijing soon. I must say good-bye now. I have a Standing Committee meeting to attend.”
The general smiled as he listened to the phone.
“The president I can manage; it’s your mother who gives me grief,” he said. “Work hard, my son. This can be the Chinese millennium if we make it so.”
PRESIDENT CHÉNG MINSHENG and Premier Mèng-Fù Ru took their seats across from the general. The meeting addressed several domestic matters before turning to foreign affairs. Wǔ-Dīng steered the agenda to the U.S. attack on Saudi Arabia, but it was the president who spoke first.
“Two days ago, I convened a meeting of the Central Military Commission to review the ramifications of the American aggression in Mecca. The CMC decided—”
“You decided,” said General Wǔ-Dīng. Though the Standing Committee spoke publicly with one voice, internal debates were often heated. Personal attacks were not uncommon.
“I am chairman of the CMC . . . and you were in Shanghai,” said the president. “In this case, the political ramifications of further aggravating the Americans, and the negligible threat posed to our own interests, did not warrant changing our posture.”
“I would like to remind the committee that the United States has just attacked a strategic ally and a critical supplier of natural resources,” said Wǔ-Dīng. “America has become unpredictable and China cannot plan for the future by looking at the past. A two-and-a-half-million-man army does not respond immediately. Training cycles need to be altered, maintenance performed, weapons inspected, watches changed. These are not provocative measures, but if the United States does have hostile intent toward China, it will see that we are alert and prepared, and it will think twice. Advancing our threat condition will not bring us closer to war, but ensure peace.”
A few heads nodded around the table.
“There is an expression I learned in America,” said the president. “‘We do not have a dog in this fight.’ It is predictably crude, but the meaning is simple and relevant. China has no direct stake in the outcome of a U.S. conflict with Saudi Arabia and we should not be seen as an instigator. Our intelligence services believe that the Americans are already very tense following the terror attacks and suspicious of Russian assistance to the Saudi government. Let the Americans and the Russians settle their differences to the benefit of China. Our threat condition shall remain unchanged.”
General Wǔ-Dīng was about to protest, when Mèng-Fù preempted him. “And so the president has decided. We will revisit this topic as events dictate.” Mèng-Fù looked to the president and the general. The president nodded his assent, but the general was not swayed so easily.
“Perhaps we should have a dog in this fight,” he said as he looked around the table. “As the president has correctly pointed out, America is highly suspicious of Russia. Perhaps Russia is only looking to embarrass the U.S. by helping the Saudis find the American aircraft that crashed in the Red Sea, but what if it goes deeper than that? Those two may soon be at each other’s throats.”
The president started to interrupt, but the general talked over him.
“I am not advocating changing our military posture,” said Wǔ-Dīng. “That is indeed your decision to make, but opportunities multiply as they are seized. What does our growing economy desperately need?”
Mèng-Fù nodded. “Natural resources,” he said.
“Exactly,” said Wǔ-Dīng. “Our demand for oil grew fifteen percent last year and we are putting more vehicles on the road, planes in the sky, and ships to sea every day. We are a hostage to U.S. dollar–based markets and suddenly the world’s second-largest reserve of oil is in play.”
“Over 270 billion barrels,” noted the head of the party secretariat.
“We should be reaching out to the Saudis at this very moment, developing long-term contracts to realign them away from the United States,” said the general.
“That will antagonize the Americans for certain,” said the president.
“Then it must be handled tactfully,” said Wǔ-Dīng.
“Don’t you have a high-ranking contact there?” asked the vice premier.
“Prince Faisal runs their National Guard. He and I negotiated the construction and arming of their missile bases,” said the general.
“And he is next in line for the throne, is he not?”
“He is deputy crown prince, so technically he is second in line.”
“You should reach out to this man,” said the chairman of the National People’s Congress.
“Perhaps you should meet in person,” said the vice premier, “to get a more candid view of what is going on inside the kingdom.”
“Yes. This is the proper course of action,” said another.
The president seethed. He had significant reservations about the plan, but he was the only one. As the rest of the committee looked to him, all he could do was nod his assent.