June 2014: A light drizzle falls from the grey skies over Brussels. Police officers in front of the office are preparing the road for the arrival of President Barack Obama, as tomorrow the G7 summit will be held here. Russia’s membership has been suspended after President Vladimir Putin invaded the Crimea in March.
In other news today: youth unemployment has dropped in Ireland, from 28% to 24% in just one year. Tourism spending by Chinese travellers rose by one quarter in 2013 - they are now the biggest customer in the global tourism sector. The British Prime Minister David Cameron threatens to leave the EU. Spanish King Juan Carlos announces his abdication. Anti-European parties negotiate to form a group within the newly elected European Parliament. A French jihadist who went to Syria is arrested for shooting four people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels. Poland asks for a US Army base as a security measure against Russia. Brazilians are unenthusiastic about the upcoming Football World Cup, as many stadiums are not yet finished and huge protests have taken place instead of pre-parties.
The weather forecast for this weekend in Brussels: 26 to 29 degrees, chance of thunderstorms, continuing depression in the European population, little prospect of a thaw between citizens and the European Union.
Outside Europe, the outlook is very different. Russia flexes its muscles in Ukraine and pivots to the East by agreeing a huge gas deal with China. President Putin launches the Eurasian Economic Union to create a single market à la Europe. Chinese industry has picked up after a slow period, boosting the stock market. India chooses a powerful new leader, Narendra Modi, who can remain in office for a decade and has the ambition to develop his country much further. In one stroke with a statistical correction, Nigeria becomes Africa’s biggest economy. On a Turkish news website, the most-read article is an interview with Star columnist Mahir Kaynak, who says the European Union will cease to play a global role, while Turkey will become a political world power.
Stagnation versus ambition. Fear against hope. Decline contra growth. The news reports of just one day clearly reveal huge tensions and shifts in the world. What will this mean for our future? Is Europe on its way out and are we bound to lose the race with the BRICS?
This book gives a compelling answer to these two crucial questions as I take you on a journey through the recent history and current state of Europe. We will venture to the East and the South, assess the potential, threats and weaknesses of the emerging giants. And we will look forward to the local, regional and global challenges in the 21st century, including an overview of what needs to change in Europe to allow our continent to thrive in an age of uncertainty and power shifts.
Much of the analysis of Next Europe is not new, nor are the proposed reforms.Rather it is an accessible and readable overview of the world in which we live today and tomorrow. Next Europe is a fresh salad with a spicy dressing. I have gathered the most relevant works on the most important topics (eurozone crisis, East-West relations, global governance), interviewed leading experts and pondered on my own experience with Europe and the world.
We are bombarded with explanations for Europe’s state of affairs or the rise of China, but what was missing was an overall analysis of the direction the world is taking. This book is meant to take away the feeling of unease that looms over our future. I also wanted an answer to the question of whether there is a place for Europe on the world’s stage in the future. Essentially that answer is: “Yes, but…”
It is partly true that Europe is in a mess. At the same time, so are the BRICS, and so is America. Let’s find out why.