As Nixon’s bombing in the North improved his numbers in the polls, General Abrams’s bombing in the South improved conditions on the ground. The president increased the airpower available for all purposes in Southeast Asia, so Abrams had all the B-52s he needed to pound North Vietnamese divisions even after Operation Linebacker began. Abrams found a few kind words to say about Linebacker, calling the results it produced “very substantial.” Nevertheless, he cautioned that “it is not possible to lose the war in the North, but it is still possible to lose the war in the South, and we must not turn loose of this until the job is done.”1 The headlines began to get better in May 1972: “S. Vietnam Troops Turn Back Red Attack at Kontum” (May 15); “S. Viet Units Break Long Kontum Siege, Push on Quang Tri” (July 1); “Saigon Reports Its Troops Enter Quangtri Capital” (July 5); “Saigon Reports Repulsing an Enemy Attack on a Pleiku Outpost” (September 6).2
Nixon now had a coincidence he could take advantage of: since Operation Linebacker had gotten under way right around the same time that Abrams began grinding the Easter Offensive to a halt, Nixon could falsely claim that bombing the North had caused success in the South.3 Post hoc, ergo propter hoc is a fallacy so ancient that the first people to skewer it wore togas and spoke Latin, but that doesn’t stop it from continuing to work in modern politics.4 Americans had been hearing politicians say for years that restrictions on bombing the North were preventing success in Vietnam. When Nixon lifted those restrictions, and Abrams achieved some limited success in stopping the Easter Offensive, these developments fit into the conservative narrative. It looked as if the bombing and mining were working, even as they were failing.
Despite the headlines, the North Vietnamese would end the Easter Offensive in control of more territory in the South than they held at the start. With a ceasefire-in-place, this would give them a platform in the South that they could use to launch another bid to overthrow the Saigon government after Nixon withdrew American forces.