The Death Spiral and Why It Won’t Happen

There are those who forecast that the grid is doomed. The theory that I’ve seen in some articles seems to espouse the idea that with the onset of home generation, and other forms of distributed generation, the grid will become obsolete. The prediction is that as more of these innovations, such as roof-mounted solar generation units, are used, the grid will become a stranded investment. In this scenario, revenues to pay for the infrastructure of the grid will be falling precipitously as more and more customers go off the grid. Utilities will have to continuously raise rates in an attempt to recover their return on the investment, which will result in even more customers getting off the grid. Eventually, the owners of the grid will go bankrupt.

I want to closely examine this scenario with some technical and practical considerations. Assume that I install a solar panel on my roof with enough capability during summer months to net out all my energy needs during the day. In fact, the solar energy generated during the day exceeds the electricity demand in my household, so I start thinking about simply disconnecting from my local utility (i.e., going off the grid). I must decide what I am going to do about the nighttime load. I want to have some air-conditioning, have some lighting, and maybe watch television. Therefore, I am going to need some energy source when the sun isn’t shining. I could buy a gasoline-powered home generator to fulfill that need, but that wouldn’t be economic—nor would it be environmentally friendly.

Perhaps the best answer is to store the excess energy from the solar panels. The most practical energy-storage item today for a residence is a battery. How big does the battery need to be? That depends, of course. So I start thinking about the plan for getting the energy needed in the winter. I will have to have some way of generating energy in the winter, when the sun is not as giving as it is in the summer. The choice again is most likely a bigger battery for the summer that can last all winter. That isn’t practical. These batteries are expensive, are big, and probably have a lifetime of five to ten years. They require maintenance and might be a fire hazard. I’m starting to get cold feet, but I will continue to explore alternatives.

In addition to the summer–winter energy-balance problem is the fact that in order to use the energy generated by the solar panels for many of my products, I am going to need an inverter to convert the direct current from the battery to the 60 Hz alternating current that most of my appliances need. I realize that the inverter is another device that can fail and leave me in the dark.

Another concern is having the capability to start motors such as an air-conditioner’s compressor. These motors need a starting current that is as much as six times the normal running current. This means that the design of all of this equipment must take motor starting into account.

All this equipment will need to be oversized compared to the normal expected load, and this will add cost. In addition, all this stuff will need to be maintained so that it keeps working. By now I’m asking if the local utility will give me a deal on the energy I’m generating, because I see no benefit in separating from the grid.

Practically speaking, getting off the grid will be a new way of life for people, and frankly, the vast majority of people would not like it and will not do it. I’m sure there are people who are willing to forgo modern luxuries, but there are not enough of them to result in a grid death spiral. Some may try it for a while, but the maintenance, the equipment failures, the extra costs, and doing without things such as air-conditioning would eventually lead them back to the grid.

Most analyses I’ve seen on separating from the grid don’t take into account the ability to start motors. And even these analyses conclude that separating is not cost-effective, which shows that the economics are potentially far worse than estimated. It will take some major advances in technology to change this outcome. Furthermore, this technology must be priced in a range that the masses can afford. I sincerely doubt that this is going to happen.

Clearly there are some in our midst who will opt to live off the grid. They may be willing to live with the hardships and/or to pay the extra cost. I just seriously doubt that it will be enough people to change the business model of owning a part of the grid.