APPENDIX
Additional Calibration Tests and Answers

CALIBRATION TEST FOR RANGES: A

No. Question Lower Bound (95% Chance Value Is Higher) Upper Bound (95% Chance Value Is Lower)
1 How many feet tall is the Hoover Dam?
2 How many inches long is a $20 bill?
3 What percentage of aluminum is recycled in the United States?
4 When was Elvis Presley born?
5 What percentage of the atmosphere is oxygen by weight?
6 What is the latitude of New Orleans? [Hint: Latitude is 0 degrees at the equator and 90 degrees at the North Pole.]
7 In 1913, the United States military owned how many airplanes?
8 The first European printing press was invented in what year?
9 What percentage of all electricity consumed in US households was used by kitchen appliances in 2001?
10 How many miles tall is Mount Everest?
11 How long is Iraq's border with Iran in kilometers?
12 How many miles long is the Nile?
13 In what year was Harvard founded?
14 What is the wingspan (in feet) of a Boeing 747 jumbo jet?
15 How many soldiers were in a Roman legion?
16 What is the average temperature of the abyssal zone (where the oceans are more than 6,500 feet deep) in degrees F?
17 How many feet long is the Space Shuttle Orbiter (excluding the external tank)?
18 In what year did Jules Verne publish 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea?
19 How wide is the goal in field hockey (in feet)?
20 The Roman Coliseum held how many spectators?
No. Answers to Calibration Test for Ranges: A
1 726 feet
2 63/16ths (6.1417) inches
3 45 percent
4 1935
5 21 percent
6 29.95
7 23
8 1450
9 26.7 percent
10 5.5 miles
11 1,458 kilometers
12 4,160 miles
13 1636
14 196 feet
15 6,000
16 39 F
17 122 feet
18 1870
19 12 feet
20 50,000

CALIBRATION TEST FOR RANGES: B

No. Question Lower Bound (95% Chance Value Is Higher) Upper Bound (95% Chance Value Is Lower)
1 The first probe to land on Mars, Viking 1, landed there in what year?
2 How old was the youngest person to fly into space?
3 How many meters tall is the Sears Tower?
4 What was the maximum altitude of the Breitling Orbiter 3, the first balloon to circumnavigate the globe, in miles?
5 On average, what percentage of the total software development project effort is spent in design?
6 How many people were permanently evacuated after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident?
7 How many feet long were the largest airships?
8 How many miles is the flying distance from San Francisco to Honolulu?
9 The fastest bird, the falcon, can fly at a speed of how many miles per hour in a dive?
10 In what year was the double helix structure of DNA discovered?
11 How many yards wide is a football field?
12 What was the percentage growth in internet hosts from 1996 to 1997?
13 How many calories are in 8 ounces of orange juice?
14 How fast would you have to travel at sea level to break the sound barrier (in mph)?
15 How many years was Nelson Mandela in prison?
16 What is the average daily calorie intake in developed countries?
17 In 1994, how many nations were members of the United Nations?
18 The Audubon Society was formed in the United States in what year?
19 How many feet high is the world's highest waterfall (Angel Falls, Venezuela)?
20 How deep beneath the sea was the Titanic found (in miles)?
No. Answers to Calibration Test for Ranges: B
1 1976
2 26
3 443 meters
4 6.9 miles
5 20 percent
6 350,000
7 803 feet
8 2,394 miles
9 200 mph
10 1953
11 53.3 yards
12 70 percent
13 120
14 760 mph
15 27
16 3,300 calories
17 184
18 1905
19 3,212 feet
20 3.36 miles

CALIBRATION TEST FOR BINARY: A

Statement Answer (True/False) Confidence that You Are Correct (Circle One)
1 The Lincoln Highway was the first paved road in the United States, and it ran from Chicago to San Francisco. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2 The Silk Road joined the two ancient kingdoms of China and Afghanistan. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
3 More American homes have microwaves than telephones. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
4 Doric is an architectural term for a shape of roof. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5 The World Tourism Organization predicts that Europe will still be the most popular tourist destination in 2020. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
6 Germany was the second country to develop atomic weapons. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7 A hockey puck will fit in a golf hole. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
8 The Sioux were one of the Plains Indian tribes. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
9 To a physicist, plasma is a type of rock. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
10 The Hundred Years' War was actually more than a century long. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
11 Most of the fresh water on Earth is in the polar ice caps. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
12 The Academy Awards (“Oscars”) began over a century ago. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
13 There are fewer than two hundred billionaires in the world. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
14 In Excel, ^ means “take to the power of.” 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
15 The average annual salary of airline captains is over $150,000. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
16 By 1997, Bill Gates was worth more than $10 billion. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
17 Cannons were used in European warfare by the eleventh century. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
18 Anchorage is the capital of Alaska. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
19 Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Grant are the four presidents whose heads are sculpted into Mount Rushmore. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
20 John Wiley & Sons is not the largest book publisher. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
No. Answers for Calibration Test Binary: A
1 FALSE
2 FALSE
3 FALSE
4 FALSE
5 TRUE
6 FALSE
7 TRUE
8 TRUE
9 FALSE
10 TRUE
11 TRUE
12 FALSE
13 FALSE
14 TRUE
15 FALSE
16 TRUE
17 FALSE
18 FALSE
19 FALSE
20 TRUE

CALIBRATION TEST FOR BINARY: B

Statement Answer (True/False) Confidence that You Are Correct (Circle One)
1 Jupiter's “Great Red Spot” is larger than Earth. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2 The Brooklyn Dodgers' name was short for “trolley car dodgers.” 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
3 Hypersonic is faster than subsonic. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
4 A polygon is three-dimensional and a polyhedron is two-dimensional. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5 A 1-watt electric motor produces 1 horsepower. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
6 Chicago is more populous than Boston. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7 In 2005, WalMart sales dropped below $100 billion. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
8 Post-it Notes were invented by 3M. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
9 Alfred Nobel, whose fortune endows the Nobel Peace Prize, made his fortune in oil and explosives. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
10 A BTU is a measure of heat. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
11 The winner of the first Indianapolis 500 clocked an average speed of under 100 mph. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
12 Microsoft has more employees than IBM. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
13 Romania borders Hungary. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
14 Idaho is larger (in area) than Iraq. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
15 Casablanca is on the African continent. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
16 The first manmade plastic was invented in the nineteenth century. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
17 A chamois is an alpine animal. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
18 The base of a pyramid is in the shape of a square. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
19 Stonehenge is located on the main British island. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
20 Computer processors double in power every three months or less. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
No. Answers for Calibration Test Binary: B
1 TRUE
2 TRUE
3 TRUE
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 TRUE
7 FALSE
8 TRUE
9 TRUE
10 TRUE
11 TRUE
12 FALSE
13 TRUE
14 FALSE
15 TRUE
16 TRUE
17 TRUE
18 TRUE
19 TRUE
20 FALSE