IN MY EARLIER BOOK, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership, I offered a challenge to the conventional understanding of presidential leadership. Near the time of the book’s publication, Barack Obama was elected president, presenting a fascinating test of my theory that presidents do not succeed by persuading others to support them but rather by recognizing and exploiting effectively the opportunities already present in their environments. In other words, presidents cannot create opportunities for change. Instead, they are dependent on exploiting the opportunities that already exist.
Obama possesses a first-class intellect, is a gifted communicator, and in the 2008 election attracted a devoted following. He and his aides concluded that he could move a highly polarized public to support his initiatives, several of which were of historic proportions. They also felt they could obtain bipartisan backing in Congress for these proposals. Many bright and politically experienced people agreed with them.
My view was quite different. It follows from my theory of presidential leadership that the president would fail to move both the public and congressional Republicans. Moreover, I argued that by asking the right questions, i.e., making accurate strategic assessments, we could predict these outcomes on the first day of the Obama presidency. In this volume, we will see which view was correct.
This book builds on The Strategic President and applies the ideas and discussion therein to predicting and explaining the politics of the Obama presidency. Because this volume is in important ways a test of the ideas presented in The Strategic President, I have included some text from that book in this one to provide the necessary introduction to my ideas for the reader who has not read The Strategic President.
I began my work on the Obama presidency during a sojourn at Oxford in the first half of 2009. Nuffield College once again extended its hospitality and provided me with a scholar’s most valuable resource—the time to focus on research. I am most grateful for the productive relationship I have enjoyed with Nuffield. Special thanks go to my good friend Desmond King, the Mellon Chair of American Government at Oxford, who provided essential support for my stay.
I am also appreciative of the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University, which for many years has provided me with an environment conducive to research. As always, I am indebted to my wife, Carmella, for making life so enjoyable and affording me the luxury of quality time for working.
My friend Chuck Myers has been an exceptional editor. Intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful, and supportive, he has played an essential role in this project. Karen Verde once again did a skilled and sensitive job editing the manuscript. Karen Fortgang was an efficient and skilled production editor.