Introduction
1.Patrick Seale, The Struggle for Syria (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1965), p. 1.
2.‘Confronting fragmentation’, Syrian Center for Policy Research 11/2/16, http://scpr-syria.org/publications/confronting-fragmentation/ [accessed 10/3/16]; ‘Syrian regional refugee response’, UNHCR, http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php [accessed 3/4/16]; ‘Syria’, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre http://www.internal-displacement.org/middle-east-and-north-africa/syria/ [accessed 3/4/16]; Oliver Holmes, ‘One million people wounded, diseases spreading in Syria: WHO’, Reuters, 19/12/14 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/19/us-mideast-crisis-health-idUSKBN0JX0V720141219 [accessed 1/4/15]; Ben Norton, ‘The shocking statistics behind Syria’s humanitarian crisis’, Think Progress 2/6/14, http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/06/02/3443171/syria-crisis-stats/ [accessed 1/4/15].
3.See for example Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge, 2013); David W. Lesch, Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad (London: Yale University Press, 2013); Samer N. Abboud, Syria (New York: Polity, 2015).
4.Raymond Hinnebusch, ‘Structure over agency: the Arab Uprising and the regional struggle for power”, in Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris (eds), The Eastern Mediterranean in Transition: Multipolarity, Politics and Power (London: Ashgate, 2015).
5.Christopher Layne, ‘This time it’s real: the end of unipolarity and the Pax Americana’, International Studies Quarterly 56 (2012), pp. 203–213.
6.Fawaz Gerges, Obama and the Middle East: The End of America’s Moment? (London: Palgrave, 2012); Roland Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring: supporting the counter-revolution’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015): 77–94; Daniela Huber, ‘A pragmatic actor – the US response to the Arab uprisings’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015): 57–75.
7.David Held and Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, ‘The Arab Spring and the changing balance of global power’, Open Democracy 26/2/14, https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/david-held-kristian-coates-ulrichsen/arab-spring-and-changing-balance-of-global-power [accessed 1/5/15].
8.F. Gregory Gause, ‘Beyond sectarianism: the New Middle East Cold War’, Brookings Doha Center (2014); Lenore G. Martin, ‘Turkey and the USA in a bipolarizing Middle East’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 15.2 (2013): 175–188; Vali Nasr, The Dispensable Nation (London: Scribe, 2013); Curtis Ryan, ‘The new Arab cold war and the struggle for Syria’, Middle East Report 262 (2012): 28–31.
9.Nye, Joseph S. ‘The twenty-first century will not be a “post-American” world’, International Studies Quarterly 56.1 (2012): 215–217; Stephen Brooks, G. John Ikenberry and William Wohlforth, ‘Don’t come home, America: the case against retrenchment’, International Security 37.3 (Winter 2012–2013): 7–51.
10.Stephen Walt, ‘Double diss’, Foreign Policy 13/8/14, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/13/double-diss/ [accessed 2/6/15].
11.Lieber, Robert, ‘Rhetoric or reality? American grand strategy and the contemporary Middle East’, Prepared for delivery at the 2014 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington, DC, 28–31 August 2014; Kenneth Pollack in ‘Symposium: U.S. foreign policy and the future of the Middle East, Middle East Policy 21.3 (Fall 2014), 1–30, Kenneth Pollack, Paul R. Pillar, Amin Tarzi and Chas W. Freeman Jr.
12.Thomas Juneau, ‘U.S. Power in the Middle East: not declining’, Middle East Policy 1.2 (Summer 2014), 40–52.
13.Stephen Walt, ‘Lax Americana’, Foreign Policy 23/10/15; Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson, ‘The end of Pax Americana’, Foreign Affairs November/December 2015; Marc Lynch, ‘Obama and the Middle East’, Foreign Affairs September/October 2015.
14.Gideon Rose, ‘The post American Middle East’, Foreign Affairs November/December 2015; Fareed Zakaria, The post-American World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008).
15.Nazih Ayubi, Overstating the Arab State, Politics and Society in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 1995).
16.There have been several excellent studies of the Syrian civil war published to date, many utilised in this work. Hokayem (2013), Lesch (2013), Abboud (2015) and Yassin-Kassab and Al-Shami (2016) offer overviews of the conflict while others focus on specific aspects notably Jihadism (Cockburn, 2015; Hassan and Weiss, 2015; Lister, 2015), the Alawis (Goldsmith, 2015) or the Kurds (Allsop, 2014). There are also many detailed memoirs and first-hand accounts from Syrians and foreign journalists including Starr, 2012; Ehrlich, 2014; Sahner, 2014; Darke, 2014; Yazbek, 2015 and al-Sabouni, 2016. The international dimension of the conflict is mostly secondary in these works, with the most detailed accounts Hokayem (2013), Lesch (2013) and Abboud (2015) offering one or two chapters on the subject.
17.Seale, Struggle, p. 3.
18.Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Kyle Beardsley ‘Nosy neighbors: third-party actors in Central American conflicts’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 48.3 (2004): 379–402; Patrick Regan, ‘Third party interventions and the duration of intrastate conflicts’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46.1 (2002): 55–73; Alan Kuperman and Timothy Crawford (eds), Gambling on Humanitarian Intervention: Moral Hazard, Rebellion, and Internal War (New York: Routledge, 2006).
19.Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, ‘Transnational dimensions of civil war’, Journal of Peace Research 44.3 (2007): 293–309.
20.Dylan Balch-Lindsay and Andrew Enterline, ‘Killing time: the world politics of civil war duration, 1820–1992’, International Studies Quarterly 44.4 (2000): 615–642.
21.David E. Cunningham, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Idean Salehyan, ‘It takes two: a dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcome’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53.4 (2009): 570–597.
22.Patrick Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution (London: Verso Books, 2015). [Kindle edition] L1203–1295.
Chapter 1: Syria and the Middle East on the eve of civil war
1.Adam Hochschild, To End All Wars: a Story of Loyalty and Rebellion, 1914–1918. (London: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2011).
2.Hanna Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of its Lesser Rural Notables, and their Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), pp. 10–29.
3.Raymond Hinnebusch, ‘Syria–Iraq relations: state construction and deconstruction and the Mena states system’, LSE Middle East Centre Series 04 (2014), http://www.lse.ac.uk/middleEastCentre/publications/Paper-Series/SyriaIraqRelations.aspx [accessed 1/5/15].
4.Samer Abboud, Syria (Hotspots in Global Politics), (London: Polity, 2015). [Kindle edition] L669.
5.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition]. L761.
6.Richard W. Murphy, ‘Why Washington didn’t intervene in Syria last time’, Foreign Affairs 20 March 2012.
7.Alan George, Syria: Neither Bread nor Freedom (London: Zed Books, 2003).
8.Andrew Tabler, In the Lion’s Den: an Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle with Syria (Chicago: Lawrence Hill, 2011), pp. xvi–xx.
9.Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Isis: Inside the Army of Terror (New York: Regan Arts, 2015). [Kindle edition] L1533–1546.
10.H.R. 1828 (108th): Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/108/hr1828 [accessed 20/4/15].
11.Orla Guerin, ‘Syria sidesteps Lebanon demands’, BBC, 6/3/05, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4322477.stm [accessed 21/4/15].
12.Flynt Leverett, Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire (New York: Brookings Institution Press, 2005).
13.Nader Habibi, ‘A decade of growing U.S. trade with the Middle East’, Global Insight, http://www.mefacts.com/cache/html/us-israel/11079.htm [accessed 1/5/15].
14.Yezid Sayigh and Avi Shlaim (eds), The Cold War and the Middle East (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997).
15.Buzan, Barry and Ole Waever, Regions and Powers: the Structure of International Security, Vol. 91 (Cambridge University Press, 2003), p. 200.
16.Fred Halliday, The Middle East in International Relations. Power, Politics and Ideology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
17.William C. Wohlforth, ‘Unipolarity, status competition, and great power war’, World Politics 61.01 (2009): 28–57; Christopher Layne, ‘The unipolar illusion: why new great powers will rise’, International Security (1993): 5–51.
18.Fawaz Gerges, Obama and the Middle East (London: Palgrave, 2012), pp.19–24.
19.Michael Hudson, ‘The United States in the Middle East’, in Louise Fawcett (ed.), International Relations of the Middle East (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005).
20.Robert Lieber, ‘Rhetoric or reality? American grand strategy and the contemporary Middle East’. Paper prepared for delivery at the 2014 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington, DC, 28–31 August 2014.
21.World Bank data via tradingeconomics.com http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp [accessed 12/5/14].
22.F. Gregory Gause, ‘Beyond sectarianism: the New Middle East Cold War’, Brookings Doha Center (2014).
23.Morton Valbjørn and Andre Bank, ‘The new Arab Cold War: rediscovering the Arab dimension of Middle East regional politics’, Review of International Studies 38:1 (2012), 3–24; Gause, ‘Beyond Sectarianism’ (2014).
24.Salah Nasrawi, ‘Saudis reportedly funding Iraqi Sunnis’, AP for Washington Post 8/12/06.
25.Definition by Haddad in F. Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq: Antagonistic Visions of Unity (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011), p. 31.
26.For example see Paul Valley, ‘The vicious schism between Sunni and Shia has been poisoning Islam for 1,400 years – and it’s getting worse’, Independent 19/2/14.
27.Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq, pp.1–6.
28.Toby Dodge, ‘State collapse and the rise of identity politics’, in Markus Bouillon, David Malone and Ben Rowsell (eds), Iraq: Preventing Another Generation of Conflict (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2007).
29.Simon Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran: Soft Power Rivalry in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 2013), p. 123.
30.Shibley Telhami, 2008 Arab Public Opinion Poll (University of Maryland, 2008).
31.Fawaz Gerges, The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009); Jason Burke, Al-Qaeda: the True Story of Radical Islam (London: I.B. Tauris, 2004).
32.Weiss and Hassan, Isis.
33.‘Views of Middle East unchanged by recent events’, Pew Research Center 10/6/11, http://www.people-press.org/2011/06/10/views-of-middle-east-unchanged-by-recent-events/ [accessed 14/6/15]; Gerges, Obama and the Middle East (2012), 7–10.
34.Pollack in ‘Symposium: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Future of the Middle East’, Middle East Policy 21.3 (Fall 2014), 1–30, Kenneth Pollack, Paul R. Pillar, Amin Tarzi and Chas W. Freeman Jr.
35.Stephen Brooks, G. John Ikenberry and William Wohlforth, ‘Don’t come home, America: the case against retrenchment’, International Security 37.3 (Winter 2012–2013), 7–51; Bret Stephens, America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder (New York: Sentinel, 2014); Robert Kagan, the World America Made (New York: Vintage, 2013).
36.Christopher Layne, ‘This time it’s real: the end of unipolarity and the Pax Americana’, International Studies Quarterly 56 (2012), 203–213.
37.David Held and Kristian Coates Ullrichsen, ‘The Arab Spring and the changing balance of global power’, Open Democracy essay, 26 February 2014.
38.Gerges, Obama and the Middle East, p. 15.
39.Ryan Lizza, ‘The consequentialist: how the Arab Spring remade Obama’s foreign policy’, New Yorker 2 May 2011.
40.Ibid.
41.Daniela Huber, ‘A pragmatic actor – the US response to the Arab uprisings’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015), 57–75.
42.Gerges, Obama and the Middle East, p. 91.
43.‘Obama – the Vox conversation’, Vox 8 February 2015, http://www.vox.com/a/barack-obama-interview-vox-conversation/obama-foreign-policy-transcript [accessed 10/10/15].
44.Gerges, Obama and the Middle East, p. 103; Tarzi in ‘Symposium: U.S. foreign policy’, Middle East Policy (2014).
45.Vali Nasr, The Dispensable Nation (London: Scribe, 2013) p. 163.
46.Lizza, ‘The consequentialist’.
47.Interviews with US officials, Washington, August 2014 and May 2015.
48.Bruce Crumley, ‘France’s fling with Syria’, Time 4/9/08; Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, Les Chemins de Damas: Le dossier noir de la relation franco-syrienne (Paris: Robert Lafront, 2014). [Kindle edition].
49.‘Foreign Secretary William Hague visits Syria’ BBC, 26/01/11 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12293205 [accessed 10/9/15]; Interview with British Diplomat, March 2015.
50.Andrew C. Kuchins and Igor A. Zevelev, ‘Russian foreign policy: continuity in change’, Washington Quarterly 35.1 (2012), 147–161.
51.Talal Nizameddin, Putin’s New Order in the Middle East (London: Hurst, 2013).
52.Nick Paton Walsh and Ewen MacAskill, ‘Putin lashes out at “wolf-like” America’, Guardian 11/5/06.
53.Roland Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Middle East: a Cold War Paradigm?’ Europe-Asia Studies 64.3 (2012): 543–556.
54.Stephen J. Flanagan, ‘The Turkey–Russia–Iran nexus: Eurasian power dynamics’, Washington Quarterly 36.1 (2013), 163–178.
55.Nizameddin, Putin’s New Order.
56.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Middle East’.
57.Dmitri Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance: Russia’s Syria policy’, Carnegie Moscow Centre, February 2013, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/mythical_alliance.pdf [accessed 6/11/14]; Nizameddin, Putin’s New Order.
58.Karim Sadjadpour, ‘The supreme leader’, The Iran Primer, United States Institute of Peace http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/supreme-leader [accessed 1/5/15].
59.Mahmood Monshipouri and Manochehr Dorraj, ‘Iran’s foreign policy: a shifting strategic landscape’, Middle East Policy, 20.4 (Winter 2013), 133–147.
60.Frederic Wehrey, Jerrold D. Green, Brian Nichiporuk, Alireza Nader, Lydia Hansell, Rasool Nafisi and S. R. Bohandy, The Rise of Pasrdaran: Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Washington, DC: Rand Corps, 2009).
61.Ibid.
62.J. Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’, in The Regional Struggle for Syria (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2013).
63.‘Imports and Exports by country 2006–2011’, Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics http://www.cbssyr.sy/trade/Foreign-Trade/2011/Trade-State2.htm [accessed 19/3/16].
64.Majid Rafizadeh, ‘Iran’s Economic Stake in Syria’, Foreign Policy 4/1/13.
65.‘Assad and Ahmadinejad – “There is no separating Iran and Syria”’, Syria Comment, 26/2/10 http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/assad-and-ahmadinejad-there-is-no-separating-iran-and-syria/ [accessed 22/4/15].
66.Simon Henderson, ‘Good riddance’, Foreign Policy 18/6/12.
67.‘Saudi Arabia,’ CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html [accessed 13/7/15].
68.Robert Mason, ‘Back to realism for an enduring U.S.–Saudi relationship’, Middle East Policy 21. 4 (Winter 2014), 32–44.
69.Joost R. Hiltermann, ‘Disorder on the border: Saudi Arabia’s war inside Yemen’, Foreign Affairs 16 (2009).
70.Ross “Colvin, ‘“Cut off head of snake” Saudis told U.S. on Iran’, Reuters 29/11/10, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-wikileaks-iran-saudis-idUSTRE6AS02B20101129 [accessed 12/5/15].
71.Nasr, Dispensable Nation, p. 161.
72.Interview with former Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
73.Hassan Hassan, ‘Syria the view from the Gulf states’, European Council of Foreign Relations, June 2013, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_syria_the_view_from_the_gulf_states135 [accessed 10/10/14]; J. Al-Saadi, ‘Saudi–Syrian relations: a historic divide’, al-akhbar 4/2/12, http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/3906 [accessed 12/3/14].
74.Philip Robbins, Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War (London: Hurst, 2003), p. 99.
75.In reality, Assad’s effectiveness in aiding Turkish goals was mixed. On the one hand Syria facilitated the spread of Jihadist fighters into Iraq that prolonged Iraq’s civil wars, creating destabilisation. On the other hand, Assad provided diplomatic support for Turkey’s operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, notably the PKK crisis of 2007–8. See William Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 1774–2000 (London: Routledge, 2002), p. 169.
76.Günter Seufert, ‘Internal driving forces for Turkey’s Middle East policy’, Südosteuropa Mitteilungen 01 (2013): 79–84.
77.Şaban Kardaş, ‘From zero problems to leading the change: making sense of transformation in Turkey’s regional policy’, TEPAV Turkish Policy Brief Series, no. 5 (2012).
78.‘What lies beneath Ankara’s new foreign policy’, leaked memo from James Jeffrey, 26/1/10, Wikileaks https://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/01/10ANKARA87.html [accessed 10/12/15].
79.Meliha Benli Altunışık. ‘The Middle East in Turkey–USA relations: managing the alliance’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 15:2 (2013), 157–173.
80.Philip Robins, ‘Turkey’s “double gravity” predicament: the foreign policy of a newly activist power’, International Affairs 89.2 (2013), 381–397.
81.Interview with Şaban Kardaş, Assistant Professor, TOBB University, Ankara, 17 July 2012.
82.Turkish Statistical Institute, The Syria Report, 31 January 2011, http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?alt_id=12.
83.Interview with Turkish officials, Ankara, July 2012.
84.World Bank data at tradingeconomics.com http://www.tradingeconomics.com/qatar/gdp [accessed 4/6/15].
85.Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Qatar and the Arab Spring (London: Hurst, 2014), p. 4.
86.Hugh Miles, al-Jazeera, (London: Abacus, 2005).
87.Bernard Haykel, ‘Qatar and Islamism’, NOREF Paper February 2013. http://www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/ac81941df1be874ccbda35e747218abf.pdf [accessed 4/4/14].
88.Ulrichsen, Qatar.
89.Lina Khatib, ‘Qatar’s foreign policy: the limits of pragmatism’, International Affairs 89.2 (2013), 417–431.
90.Ulrichsen, Qatar, p. 109.
91.Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner, ‘Turkey and Qatar: close allies, sharing a doomed Syria policy’, The National Interest 9/11/15 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkey-qatar-close-allies-sharing-doomed-syria-policy-14283?page=2 [accessed 10/3/16].
Chapter 2: The Arab Spring comes to Syria
1.‘Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’, Wall Street Journal 31/1/11.
2.Stephen Walt, ‘Why the Tunisian Revolution won’t spread’, Foreign Policy 16/1/11.
3.Christopher Phillips, Everyday Arab Identity: the Daily Reproduction of the Arab World (London: Routledge, 2013); David Lesch, The New Lion of Damascus (New York: Yale University Press, 2005).
4.David Lesch, Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad (New York: Yale University Press, 2013); Carsten Wieland, Syria at Bay: Secularism, Islamism, and ‘Pax Americana’ (Hurst & Co., London 2005), p. 159.
5.Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 26.
6.Lesch, Syria, p. 59.
7.Economist Intelligence Unit – http://www.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=displayIssue&publication_id=250000825 [accessed 12/5/15].
8.Raymond Hinnebusch, Syria: Revolution from Above (Routledge, London 2001), p. 63.
9.Raymond Hinnebusch, ‘Syria: from “authoritarian upgrading” to revolution?’ International Affairs 88:1 (2012), 95–113.
10.Robert G. Rabil, Syria, the United States, and the War on Terror in the Middle East, (Praeger Security International, 2006), p. 187.
11.Lesch, Syria, p. 115.
12.Wieland, Syria at Bay, p. 165.
13.Lesch, Syria, p. 71.
14.Marwān Iskandarm, Rafiq Hariri and the Fate of Lebanon (London: Saqi, 2006), p. 201.
15.Philip Droz-Vincent, ‘“State of Barbary” (Take Two): from the Arab Spring to the return of violence in Syria’, Middle East Journal 68.1 (2014), 33–58.
16.Hinnebusch, ‘Syria: from ‘authoritarian upgrading’ (2012),
17.Francesca De Châtel, ‘The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: untangling the triggers of the revolution’, Middle Eastern Studies 50.4 (2014), 521–535.
18.Employment stats from Economist Intelligence Unit; Syria’s Uprising, p. 25.
19.‘Unemployment rate in Syria increased to 14.90 percent’, Syrian Economic Forum, 28/11/12 http://www.syrianef.org/En/?p=418 [accessed 15/5/15]; Lesch, Syria, p. 62.
20.Lesch, Syria, p. 62.
21.De Châtel, ‘The role of drought and climate change’; David Butter, Syria’s Economy: Picking up the Pieces, Chatham House Research Paper, June 2015.
22.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L878.
23.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising.
24.Droz-Vincent, “State of Barbary”, although this figure is disputed and some say as few as 250,000 migrated due to drought. See Jan Selby and Mike Hulme, ‘Is climate change really to blame for Syria’s civil war?’ Guardian 29/11/15.
25.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L905.
26.De Châtel, ‘The role of drought and climate change’.
27.Lesch, Syria, p. 63.
28.Shamel Azmeh, The Uprising of the Marginalised: A Socio-Economic Perspective of the Syrian Uprising, LSE Middle East Centre Paper Series 06 (2014).
29.Bassam Haddad, The Syrian Regime’s Business Backbone, Middle East Report 42.262 (2012).
30.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 29.
31.Peter Harling and Sarah Birke, The Syrian Heartbreak, Middle East Report (2013).
32.For a further discussion of Salafism, see Chapter 6.
33.Thomas Pierret, ‘Sunni clergy politics in the cities of Ba’athi Syria’, in Fred Lawson (ed.), Demystifying Syria (London: Saqi, 2009), pp. 70–84; L.R. De Elvira and T. Zintl, ‘The end of the Ba’thist social contract in Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria: reading sociopolitical transformations through charities and broader benevolent activism’, International Journal of Middle East Studies 46.2 (2014), 329–349.
34.Christopher Phillips, ‘The Arabism debate and the Arab uprisings’, Mediterranean Politics 19.1 (2014), 141–144.
35.Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes, HRC (New York: Crown Publishers, 2014), p. 471.
36.Lesch, Syria, p. 56; Phil Sands, Justin Vela and Suha Maayeh, ‘Blood ties: the shadowy member of the Assad clan who ignited the Syrian conflict’, The National 20/3/14,http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/blood-ties-the-shadowy-member-of-the-assad-clan-who-ignited-the-syrian-conflict [accessed 15/5/15].
37.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1202.
38.Droz-Vincent, ‘“State of Barbary”’.
39.Aron Lund, ‘The political geography of Syria’s war: an interview with Fabrice Balanche’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie 30/1/15, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=58875 [accessed 12/5/15].
40.Wieland, Syria at Bay, p. 22.
41.Dawn Chatty, ‘Syria’s bedouin enter the fray: how tribes could keep Syria together’, Foreign Affairs, 13 November. (2013).
42.Interviews with Syrians, Lebanon, July 2013.
43.Eliza Griswold, ‘Is this the end of Christianity in the Middle East?’ New York Times 22/7/15.
44.Lisa Wedeen, Ambiguities of Domination: Politics, Rhetoric, and Symbols in Contemporary Syria (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999).
45.James T. Quinlivan, ‘Coup-proofing: its practice and consequences in the Middle East’, International Security 24.2 (1999), 131–165.
46.Droz-Vincent, ‘“State of Barbary”’.
47.Nicholas Blanford, Killing Mr Lebanon: the Assassination of Rafik Hariri and its Impact on the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris, 2006).
48.Violations Documentation Center in Syria. http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/ [accessed 14/12/14]; Droz-Vincent, ‘“State of Barbary”’.
49.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1357.
50.Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Isis: Inside the Army of Terror (New York: Regan Arts, 2015). [Kindle edition] L1965.
51.Lesch, Syria, pp.177–178.
52.Anthony Shadid, ‘Syria arrests scores in house-to-house roundup’, New York Times 5/5/11.
53.‘Assad emails: “We should be in control of all public spaces” – translation’, Guardian 14/3/12.
54.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, pp. 51–55.
55.Lesch, Syria, p. 84.
56.Harriet Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014), p. 199.
57.Interview with former Syrian regime official, January 2015.
58.Ariel Zirulnick, ‘Government forces open fire on protesters in Syria’s third-largest city, Homs’, Christian Science Monitor 19/4/11, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0419/Government-forces-open-fire-on-protesters-in-Syria-s-third-largest-city-Homs [accessed 10/9/15].
59.Christopher Phillips, ‘Sectarianism and conflict in Syria’, Third World Quarterly 36.2 (2015), 357–376; ‘Syria: the crisis and its implications’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 1/2/12 S. HRG. 112–472, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112shrg75019/pdf/CHRG-112shrg75019.pdf [accessed 2/2/15].
60.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1612.
61.Lesch, Syria, p. 74.
62.Interview with former Syrian regime officials, January 2015.
63.David Lesch, ‘Assad’s fateful choice’, Syria Comment 9/4/16, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/ [accessed 11/4/16].
64.Jeremy Bowen, ‘Assad is firm in defending his actions in BBC interview’, BBC 10/2/15, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31311896 [accessed 1/5/15].
65.Interview with British diplomat, March 2015; Joshua Landis, ‘Regime’s top Sunni defects – General Manaf Mustafa Tlass flees to Turkey’, Syria Comment 5/7/12, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/regimes-top-sunni-defects-general-manaf-mustafa-tlass-flees-to-turkey/ [accessed 1/6/15].
66.Lesch, Syria, p. 75.
67.Lesch, Syria, p. 74.
68.Interview with British diplomat, March 2015.
69.Lesch, Syria, p. 49; interview with former Syrian regime official, January 2015.
70.Lesch, Syria, p. 241.
71.‘Assad emails: “Rubbish laws of parties, elections, media …”’ Guardian 14/3/12.
72.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, pp. 40–41.
Chapter 3: Assad must stand aside? The international community’s ambivalent response
1.‘President Obama: “The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way”’, The White House 18/8/11, https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syria-must-be-determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad [accessed 3/6/15].
2.‘Turkish PM praises growing ties with Syria’, AFP for Ahram online 6/2/11, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/5096/Index.aspx [accessed 3/6/15].
3.Construction on the dam was abandoned in June 2011.
4.Kim Ghattas, The Secretary: A Journey with Hillary Clinton from Beirut to the Heart of American Power (London: Macmillan, 2013). [Kindle edition] L3972.
5.Vali Nasr, The Dispensable Nation (London: Scribe, 2013), p. 166.
6.Ghattas, The Secretary, p. 238.
7.Christopher Davidson, After the Sheikhs: the Coming Collapse of the Gulf Oil Monarchies (London: Hurst, 2012), p. 202.
8.Davidson, After the Sheikhs, p. 232.
9.Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices: A Memoir (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2014), pp. 331–362.
10.Mehran Kamrava, ‘The Arab Spring and the Saudi-led counterrevolution’, Orbis 56.1 (2012), pp. 96–104.
11.Ghattas, The Secretary, p. 260.
12.‘Libya protests: defiant Gaddafi refuses to quit’, BBC 22/2/11, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-12544624 [accessed 20/5/15].
13.Evan Osnos, ‘The Biden agenda’, New Yorker 28/7/14.
14.Ghattas, The Secretary, p. 269.
15.Nasr, The Dispensable Nation, p. 178; Ghattas, The Secretary, p. 259.
16.Ghattas, The Secretary, p. 254.
17.Guido Steinberg, ‘Qatar and the Arab Spring: support for Islamists and new anti-Syria policy’, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP commentary 7/2/12, http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2012C07_sbg.pdf [accessed 12/6/15].
18.Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Qatar and the Arab Spring (London: Hurst, 2014), p. 124.
19.Interview with British official, London, December 2014.
20.Interview with US official, Washington, August 2014.
21.Interview with British official, October 2014.
22.Interview with al-Jazeera journalists, Doha, February 2015.
23.‘Saudi king expresses support to Syrian president’, Xinhua 29/3/11, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011–03/29/c_13802184.htm [accessed 1/6/15].
24.‘The general and the particular in the ongoing Syrian popular uprising’, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies May 2011, http://english.dohainstitute.org/file/get/324a0bcf-cdd1–4932-b1bf-454761a5d792.pdf [accessed 1/5/15].
25.‘A Statement by President Obama on Syria’, White House 22/4/11, https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/04/22/statement-president-obama-syria [accessed 1/6/15].
26.Interview with western officials, March 2015; ‘Council of the European Union Foreign Affairs Press Release’ 11/4/11 8741/1/11 REV 1, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/121506.pdf [accessed 1/6/15].
27.Multiple private interviews with Syrians, 2011–15.
28.Violations Documentation Center in Syria, http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/ [accessed 1/5/15].
29.Ibid.
30.Alistair Good, ‘Syrian protest song that killed its writer’, Telegraph 10/7/11.
31.Anthony Shadid, ‘Thousands turn out for Assad’, New York Times 21/6/11.
32.Interview with western officials, March 2015; Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
33.Jubin Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’, in The Regional Struggle for Syria (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2013).
34.Khalid Ali, ‘Iran calls on Syrian President to consider protesters’ demands’, Independent 29/8/11.
35.Deborah Amos, ‘Pro-Assad “Army” wages cyberwar in Syria’, NPR, 25/9/11 – http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140746510/pro-assad-army-wages-cyberwar-in-syria [accessed 20/5/13]; Robert Booth, Mona Mahmood and Luke Harding, ‘Exclusive: secret Assad emails lift lid on life of leader’s inner circle’, Guardian 14/3/12; ‘Assad emails: “Suggestions for the president’s speech” – translation’, Guardian 14/3/12; ‘Assad emails: “Blaming Al-Qaida is not in our interest” – translation’, Guardian 14/3/12; Interview with former Syrian regime insider, January 2015.
36.Interview with Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
37.A. Blomfield, ‘Syria unrest: Saudi Arabia calls on “killing machine” to stop’, Telegraph 8/8/11.
38.Lina Khatib, ‘Qatar’s foreign policy: the limits of pragmatism’, International Affairs 89 (2012), 417–431.
39.Allegedly stated by Hamad to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem in Doha, 31 October 2011. Interview with former regime officials, January 2015.
40.Private interview with HH Sheikh Tamim, to journalists in London on Thursday, 30 October 2014.
41.Philip Robins, Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War (London: Hurst, 2003), p. 69.
42.Ahmet Davutoğlu (1994) Alternative Paradigms: The Impact of Islamic and Western Weltanschauungs on Political Theory (Lanham–New York–London: University Press of America), p. 5.
43.Interview with Soli Ozel, Istanbul, August 2012.
44.Christopher Phillips, Into the Quagmire: Turkey’s Frustrated Syria Policy, Chatham House Briefing Paper (2012), p. 5.
45.UK Diptel from Damascus to FCO, ‘Syria: Opposition Meeting in Exile’ 7/6/11.
46.UK Diptel from Ankara to FCO, ‘TURKEY/SYRIA: TURKEY TALKS TOUGH’ 17/6/11.
47.Interview with Turkish official, Ankara, July 2012.
48.Interview with former Syrian insider, January 2015.
49.Philip Robins, ‘Turkey’s “double gravity” predicament: the foreign policy of a newly activist power’, International Affairs 89.2 (2013), 381–397.
50.Turkey’s Power Capacity in the Middle East, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies Report no. 12–04, June 2012, p. 2, http://www.usak.org.tr/dosyalar/rapor/ctZTC1gAenLx7HaF8Gi7oip20CoDVX.pdf [accessed 4/6/15].
51.Interviews with various Turkish commentators, Ankara and Istanbul, July–August 2012.
52.Interview with Soli Özel, 10 July 2012.
53.Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘Syria Country Report’, March 2011; interview with official from Gaziantep Chamber of Commerce, Gaziantep, 30 July 2012.
54.Robins, ‘Turkey’s “double gravity”’ (2013).
55.Elif Shafak, ‘On Turkey’s turmoil: “Intimidation and paranoia dominates the land”’, Guardian 1/3/16.
56.Bilgin Ayata, ‘Turkish foreign policy in a changing Arab world: rise and fall of a regional actor?’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015).
57.Günter Seufert, ‘Internal driving forces for Turkey’s Middle East policy’, Südosteuropa Mitteilungen 01 (2013), 79–84.
58.Henri J. Barkey, ‘Erdogan’s foreign policy is in ruins’, Foreign Policy 4/2/16.
59.Phillips, Into the Quagmire.
60.İlhan Uzgel, ‘New Middle East: Turkey from being a playmaker to seclusion in the new Middle East’, Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey 4.1 (2015), pp. 47–55.
61.Robins, ‘Turkey’s “double gravity”’ (2013).
62.Interview with US officials, Washington, August 2014; interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
63.Nasr, The Dispensable Nation, p. 2.
64.Kilic Bugra Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts: Obama’s Syria Policy (Washington, DC: SETA, 2015).
65.Nasr, The Dispensable Nation.
66.Interview with western official, October 2014.
67.‘Consolidated list of financial sanctions targets in the UK’s HM Treasury’, http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/d/syria.htm [accessed 14/5/13]
68.Lesch, Syria, p. 153.
69.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
70.UK Diptel from Damascus to FCO, ‘Syria – Homs’, 27/5/11.
71.Lesch, Syria, p. 135.
72.UK Diptel from Damascus to FCO, ‘Syria: the pace quickens’ 19/7/11.
73.Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, Les Chemins de Dama : Le dossier noir de la relation franco-syrienne (Paris: Robert Lafront, 2014) [Kindle edition].
74.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
75.Les Chemins, [Kindle edition] L3819.
76.Interview with western diplomat, March 2015.
77.‘President Obama: “The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way”’, White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syria-must-be-determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad [accessed 15/5/15].
78.Chris McGreal and Martin Chulov, ‘Syria: Assad must resign, says Obama’, Guardian 19/8/15.
79.Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 81.
80.Quoted ibid. pp. 82–83.
81.Lesch, Syria, p. 157.
82.Interview with Alistair Burt, London, 18/11/14.
83.Interview with British officials, London, July 2014.
84.Interview with Fred Hof, Washington, 30/7/14.
85.Interview with former US official, July 2014.
86.McGreal, Chris and Martin Chulov, ‘Syria: Assad must resign, says Obama’, Guardian 19/8/11
87.Interview with British diplomat, March 2015.
Chapter 4: International institutions and the slide to war
1.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L318.
2.It is unclear how many of the 500 listed regime fatalities were killed by the regime for refusing orders, as has been alleged. See ‘Latest Regime Fatalities’, Violations Documentation Center in Syria. Despite being an opposition site this is the most accurate accumulator of data on verified regime and opposition deaths. http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/ [accessed 14/12/14].
3.The agendas of those running these online forums will be discussed in Chapter 5. See Chapter 5, note 4.
4.Matthew Barber, ‘The names of the Revolution,’ Syria Comment 14/12/13, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/names-of-the-revolution/ [accessed 14/12/14].
5.George Baghdadi, ‘Syrians march in support of Assad’, CBS News 13/11/11, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/syrians-march-in-support-of-assad/ [accessed 14/12/14].
6.David W. Lesch, Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad (London: Yale University Press, 2013), p. 103.
7.Aron Lund, ‘The Free Syria Army doesn’t exist’, Syria Comment 16/3/13, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-free-syrian-army-doesnt-exist/ [accessed 1/2/15].
8.The numbers are disputed. The regime claims 13, SANA (http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/10/01/372492.htm), while the FSA claims 80 – Al-Arabiya (http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/09/29/169224.html) 29/9/11 [both accessed 14/12/14].
9.See map on ‘Homs, Syria, Capital of the Revolution’, https://syriamap.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/homs_final_1111081.jpg [accessed 2/4/15].
10.Interviews with Syrian refugees from Homs, Jordan, August 2012.
11.Jonathan Littell, Syrian Notebooks: Inside the Homs Uprising (London: Verso Books, 2015). [Kindle edition] L977.
12.Violations Documentation Center in Syria, http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/ [accessed 14/12/14].
13.Rabie Nasser, ‘Socioeconomic roots and impact of the Syria crisis’, Syria Center for Policy Research, January 2013, p. 62, http://scpr-syria.org/att/1360464324_Tf75J.pdf [accessed 2/2/15].
14.Lesch, Syria p. 188.
15.David Butter, Syria’s Economy: Picking up the Pieces, Chatham House Research Paper, June (2015).
16.Nasser, ‘Socioeconomic roots’, p. 64.
17.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L2289.
18.C. Drury, ‘Revisiting economic sanctions reconsidered’, Journal of Peace Research 35.4 (1998), 497–509. Cited in Nasser, ‘Socioeconomic roots’; Lee Jones, Societies under Siege: Exploring how international economic sanctions (do not) work. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015)
19.Interview with US official, Washington, August 2014.
20.UK Diptel from Damascus to FCO, ‘Syrian economy: Assad’s weak spot, and what more we can do to squeeze it’, 23/10/11
21.James Denselow, ‘Panama Papers: how the Seychelles saved Syria’, al-Jazeera 9/4/16, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/04/seychelles-saved-syria-160407085452247.html [accessed 12/4/16].
22.Nasser, ‘Socioeconomic roots’, p. 64.
23.‘Syria: the crisis and its implications’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 1/2/12 S. HRG. 112–472, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112shrg75019/pdf/CHRG-112shrg75019.pdf [accessed 2/2/15].
24.Paul Danahar, The New Middle East: the World after the Arab Spring (London: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2013), pp. 237–238.
25.Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Qatar and the Arab Spring (London: Hurst, 2014), pp. 134–135.
26.Moscow had already vetoed an anti-Assad resolution at the UNSC in October 2011 and wanted to avoid having to do so again so soon, fearing the Arab League would refer to New York if Damascus continued to stonewall. See Lesch, Syria, p. 188.
27.Richard Gowan cited in Lesch, Syria, p. 189.
28.Littell, Syrian Notebooks [Kindle edition] L1050.
29.Ironically, Dabi’s time as Sudan’s ambassador to Qatar made the regime suspicious of him too.
30.‘Ex-Arab-League monitor labels Syria mission “a farce” ’, BBC 11/1/12, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16507805 [accessed 3/10/15].
31.Lesch, Syria, p.182, note 38.
32.Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 160.
33.Hassan Hassan, ‘Syria: the view from the Gulf states’, ECFR, June 2013, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_syria_the_view_from_the_gulf_states135 [accessed 10/10/14].
34.Previous no-fly zones over Iraq in 1991 had no explicit UN authorisation, even though the US and UK used UN688 as justification.
35.‘Outcome Document of World Summit’, UN General Assembly A/60/L.1, 15/9/05, http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/world%20summit%20outcome%20doc%202005(1).pdf [accessed 12/5/13].
36.Aiden Hehir, The Responsibility to Protect (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), p. 52.
37.Justin Morris, ‘Libya and Syria: R2P and the spectre of the swinging pendulum’, International Affairs 89.5 (2013), 1265–1283.
38.Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices: A Memoir (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2014), pp. 447–470.
39.Interview with Russian official, Moscow, November 2014; Lesch, Syria, p. 183.
40.Interview with Alistair Burt, London, 18/11/14.
41.Clinton, Hard Choices, pp. 447–470.
42.Mark N. Katz, ‘Russia and the conflict in Syria: four myths’, Middle East Policy 20.2 (2013), 38–46.
43.Roy Allison, ‘Russia and Syria: explaining alignment with a regime in crisis’, International Affairs 89.4 (2013), 795–823.
44.Dmitri Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance: Russia’s Syria policy’, Carnegie Moscow Centre February 2013, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/mythical_alliance.pdf [accessed 6/11/14].
45.‘Syria unrest: Medvedev urges Assad to reform or go’, BBC 7/10/11, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15218727 [accessed 6/11/14].
46.Ivanov, M. and D. Kozlov, ‘Resolution is ripe for Russia’, Kommersant 22/3/11 in Roland Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring: supporting the counter-revolution’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015), 77–94.
47.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring’.
48.Interview with Russian official, Moscow, November 2014.
49.Interview with various Russian officials and former officials, Moscow, November 2014.
50.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring’.
51.Ibid.
52.‘Russia will not allow Libya-style military intervention in Syria’, Middle East Online, 1/11/11, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=48833 (accessed 10/5/13).
53.Samuel Charap, ‘Russia, Syria and the doctrine of intervention’, Survival 55.1 (February–March 2013), 35–41.
54.Interview with former Russian official, Moscow, November 2014.
55.Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance’.
56.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring’; interview with Russian official, Moscow, November 2014.
57.Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance’.
58.Interview with Alexey Maleshenko, Moscow, 27/11/14; interview with Ramazan Duarov, Moscow, 24/11/14.
59.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring’.
60.Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance’; Katz, ‘Russia and the conflict in Syria’.
61.Katz, ‘Russia and the conflict in Syria’.
62.Vitaly Naumkin, ‘Russia’s Middle East policy after the G-20 summit’, Al-Monitor 24/11/14, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/russia-middle-east-policy-after-g20.html#ixzz3uTctmzmI [accessed 12/4/15]; Dmitri Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit aims at something bigger than Syria’, The Tablet 13/10/15, http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/194109/putin-syria-trenin [accessed 10/3/16].
63.Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance’.
64.Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring’.
65.Interview with Vitaly Naumkin, Moscow, 25 November 2014
66.‘UNSMIS Background’, United Nations, http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/unsmis/background.shtml [accessed 10/5/15].
67.Richard Gowan, ‘Kofi Annan, Syria and the uses of uncertainty in mediation’, Stability: International Journal of Security and Development 2.1 (2013), 8.
68.‘UNSMIS Background’, United Nations.
69.In August a report by the UN Human Rights Commission would confirm regime involvement.
70.‘UN calls for investigation into Houla killings in Syria’, BBC 1/6/12, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18295291 [accessed 1/6/15].
71.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 161.
72.Gowan, ‘Kofi Annan’.
73.‘Mission impossible: why Kofi Annan’s peace plan for Syria failed’, ABC 16/9/12, http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rearvision/kofi-annan27s-peace-plan/4242708#transcript [accessed 4/5/15].
74.‘Action Group for Syria: Final Communiqué’, 30/6/12, http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Syria/FinalCommuniqueActionGroupforSyria.pdf [accessed 3/5/15].
75.Clinton, Hard Choices, pp. 447–470.
76.‘Kofi Annan on Syria, hard choices of peacekeeping’, NPR, 27/8/12, http://www.npr.org/2012/09/01/160135085/kofi-annan-on-the-difficult-choices-of-a-peacekeeper.
77.Ian Black, ‘Kofi Annan resigns as Syria envoy’, Guardian 2/8/12. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/aug/02/kofi-annan-resigns-syria-envoy [accessed 22/5/15].
78.J. Michael Greig, ‘Intractable Syria – insights from the scholarly literature on the failure of mediation’, Penn State Journal of Law and International Affairs 2 (2013), p. 48.
79.According to the Violations Documentation Center in Syria in the 59 days before UN peacekeepers arrived but after the departure of the AL monitors (17 Feb.–15 April) there were 4,290 recorded fatalities. For the 59 days when the UN peacekeepers were deployed (16 April–14 June) there was a slight drop, to 3,991; 59 days after UN peacekeepers ended operations (14 June–12 Aug.) there was a huge increase, to 9,251. http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/ [accessed 14/12/14].
80.Lesch, Syria, p. 187.
Chapter 5: A legitimate representative? Supporting and subverting Syria’s political opposition
1.‘Moaz al-Khatib: the priority is to save Syria’, al-Jazeera 11/5/13, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/2013/05/2013510141112681380.html [accessed 2/7/15].
2.Robin Yassin-Kassab and Leila Al-Shami, Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War (London: Pluto, 2016), p. 37.
3.Reinoud Leenders and Steven Heydemann, ‘Popular mobilisation in Syria: opportunity and threat, and the social networks of the early risers’, Mediterranean Politics 17.2 (2012), 139–159.
4.For Friday titles see Matthew Barber, ‘The names of the Revolution’, 14/12/13, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/names-of-the-revolution/ [accessed 14/12/14]; however, Littell notes there were rival forums and websites, sometimes leading to different names on the same day: see Jonathan Littell, Syrian Notebooks: Inside the Homs Uprising (London: Verso Books, 2015). [Kindle edition] L1072.
5.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15.
6.‘National Coordination Body for Democratic Change’ Carnegie Syria resources 15/1/12, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=48369 [accessed 12/7/15]; Yezid Sayigh, ‘The Syrian Opposition’s leadership problem’, Carnegie Papers, 3/4/13, http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/03/syrian-opposition-s-leadership-problem/fx6v# [accessed 10/5/13].
7.‘Building the Syrian state’, Carnegie Syria resources 28/9/12, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=49517 [accessed 12/7/15].
8.Interview with western diplomat, March 2015.
9.Interview with western diplomat, February 2015.
10.‘Chairman’s Conclusions of Friends of Syria meeting’, Foreign and Commonwealth Office 27/2/12, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chairmans-conclusions-of-friends-of-syria-meeting [accessed 12/7/15].
11.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15.
12.Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 72.
13.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
14.Interviews with US officials, Washington, July and August 2014; interviews with western officials based in Turkey, Ankara and Gaziantep, July 2012 and August 2013.
15.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1393.
16.Raphaël Lefèvre, Ashes of Hama: The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 191–192.
17.Reinoud Leenders and Steven Heydemann, ‘Popular mobilisation in Syria’; Reinoud Leenders, ‘Collective action and mobilization in Dar’a: an anatomy of the onset of Syria’s popular uprising’, Mobilisation,17.4 (2012), 419–434.
18.Joshua Landis, ‘The man behind “Syria Revolution Facebook Page” speaks out’, Syria Comment 24/4/11, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-man-behind-syria-revolution-2011-facebook-page-speaks-out/ [accessed 3/6/15]; Uri Freedman, ‘How Syrian activists name their Friday protests’, The Wire 16/9/11, http://www.thewire.com/global/2011/09/how-syrian-activists-name-their-friday-protests/42586/ [accessed 3/6/15].
19.Lefèvre, Ashes of Hama, p. 188.
20.David Roberts, ‘Qatar: domestic quietism, elite adventuring’, in F. Ayub (ed.), What Does the Gulf Think about the Arab Awakening? (London: ECFR, 2013), http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR75_GULF_ANALYSIS_AW.pdf [accessed 3/4/14].
21.Interview with Qatar officials, Doha, February 2015.
22.Jeremy Shapiro, ‘The Qatar problem’, Foreign Policy 28/8/13.
23.Lefèvre, Ashes of Hama, p. 189.
24.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15.
25.Lefèvre, Ashes of Hama, p. 190.
26.Interview with western diplomat, February 2015.
27.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 75.
28.Borzou Daragahi, ‘Libya helps bankroll Syrian opposition’, Financial Times 5/11/12.
29.Shapiro, ‘The Qatar problem’.
30.Carsten Wieland, Syria at Bay: Secularism, Islamism, and ‘Pax Americana’ (London: Hurst, 2005).
31.Harriet Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014), p. 288.
32.Ibid., p. 196.
33.The PYD insists it is independent of the PKK, although it is openly a member of the Union of Kurdistan Communities (KCK), the umbrella body for groups supportive of PKK ideology and goals. Robert Lowe and Cengiz Gunes, The Impact of the Syrian War on Kurdish Politics across the Middle East, Chatham House Research Paper, July 2015.
34.Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria, pp. 196–205.
35.Ibid., p. 205.
36.Ibid., pp. 198–200.
37.Ibid., p. 207.
38.Interview with Turkish official, Ankara, 2013.
39.Interview with Abdul Hakim Bashar, KNC chairman, London, 18/1/12.
40.Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria, p. 214.
41.UK Diptel from Damascus to FCO, ‘Syria: Opposition Meeting in Exile’ 7/6/11.
42.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15; interview with western diplomat, March 2015
43.Robert Marquand, ‘Syria’s opposition concerned about independent armed rebel groups’, Christian Science Monitor, 27/1/12, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0127/Syria-s-opposition-concerned-about-independent-armed-rebel-groups [accessed 7/7/15].
44.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15; interviews with member of the SNC, October 2014.
45.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1534.
46.‘Syria opposition chiefs at odds over military body’, Reuters 1/3/12, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/01/us-syria-opposition-idUSTRE8200SA20120301.
47.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15.
48.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising p. 43.
49.Interview with Jon Wilkes, Muscat, 3/2/15.
50.Meliha Benli Altunışık, ‘The Middle East in Turkey–USA relations: managing the alliance’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 15.2 (2013), 157–173.
51.‘KNC: A Statement on Joining the National Coalition of Syrian Opposition Forces’, Carnegie 12/12/12 http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=50350 [accessed 13/10/15].
52.Ibrahim Hemeidi, ‘Syria’s Kurds formally join opposition coalition’, Al-Monitor 28/8/13, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/08/syria-kurds-join-national-coalition.html#; Interview with US official, Washington, May 2015.
53.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
54.Interview with US official, Washington, May 2015.
55.Ibid.
56.Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, Les Chemins de Damas: Le dossier noir de la relation franco-syrienne (Paris: Robert Lafront, 2014) [Kindle edition].
57.J. Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’, in The Regional Struggle for Syria (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2013).
58.Yezid Sayigh, ‘The Syrian opposition’s very provisional government’, Carnegie 28/3/13, http://carnegie-mec.org/2013/03/28/syrian-opposition-s-very-provisional-government [accessed 3/7/15].
59.‘Moaz al-Khatib: the priority is to save Syria’, al-Jazeera.
60.A report released by the International Monetary Fund in September 2012 said that Saudi Arabia pledged $17.9 billion in aid to the region between 2011 and 2012 but that only $3.7 billion of these pledges had been disbursed. Ahmed Al Omran, ‘Saudi Arabia: a new mobilisation’, in F. Ayub (ed.), What Does the Gulf Think about the Arab Awakening? (London: ECFR, 2013).
61.Christopher Davidson, After the Sheikhs: the Coming Collapse of the Gulf Oil Monarchies (London: Hurst, 2012), pp. 214–215; Mehran Kamrava, ‘The Arab Spring and the Saudi-led counterrevolution’, Orbis 56.1 (2012), 96–104.
62.Hassan Hassan, ‘Syria: the view from the Gulf states’, ECFR, June 2013, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_syria_the_view_from_the_gulf_states135 [accessed 10/10/14].
63.Frederic Wehrey, The Forgotten Uprising in Eastern Saudi Arabia (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013).
64.Vali Nasr, The Dispensable Nation (London: Scribe, 2013), p. 213.
65.Robert Lacey, Inside the Kingdom (London: Random House, 2011).
66.Madawi Al-Rasheed, ‘Saudi Arabia: local and regional challenges’, Contemporary Arab Affairs 6:1 (2013), 28–40.
67.Stephane Lacroix, Saudi Islamists and the Arab Spring, Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, Research Paper 36, May 2014, http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/56725/1/Lacroix_Saudi-Islamists-and-theArab-Spring_2014.pdf [accessed 12/8/15].
68.Al Omran, ‘Saudi Arabia: A new mobilisation’.
69.Daniela Huber, ‘A pragmatic actor – the US response to the Arab uprisings’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015), 57–75.
70.Mark Heartsgaard, ‘Secret tapes of the 2013 Egypt coup plot pose a problem for Obama’, Daily Beast 5/10/15, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/10/secret-tapes-of-the-2013-egypt-coup-plot-pose-a-problem-for-obama.html [accessed 10/11/15].
71.Huber, ‘A pragmatic actor’.
72.Simon Henderson, ‘The Saudi problem and the head of the snake’, Foreign Policy, 28/3/14, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/28/the-saudi-problem-and-the-head-of-the-snake/ [accessed 10/11/15].
73.Robert Mason, ‘Back to realism for an enduring U.S.–Saudi relationship’, Middle East Policy 21.4 (Winter 2014), 32–44.
74.Ibid.
75.Hassan, ‘Syria: the view from the Gulf states’; Al-Rasheed, ‘Saudi Arabia’.
76.Wehrey, F. ‘Saudi Arabia reins in its clerics on Syria’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2012, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/saudi-arabia-reins-in-its-clerics-on-syria/bu10. [accessed 12/3/14].
77.S. Kerr, ‘Saudi cracks down on youths travelling to Syria’, Financial Times 4/2/14, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c98efe4e-8d88–11e3-bbe7–00144feab7de.html#axzz2wJCikVoa [accessed 12/3/14]; Wehrey, ‘Saudi Arabia reins in its clerics on Syria’.
78.Simon Henderson, ‘The prince and the revolution’, Foreign Policy 24/7/12.
79.Al-Rasheed, ‘Saudi Arabia’.
80.Interview with Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
81.Michael Stephens, ‘The underestimated Prince Nayef’, Foreign Policy 18/6/12.
82.Hassan, ‘Syria: the view from the Gulf states’.
83.Interview with Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
84.Craig Unger, House of Bush, House of Saud: The Secret Relationship between the World’s Two Most Powerful Dynasties (New York: Gibson Square Books, 2007).
85.David Ottaway, The King’s Messenger: Prince Bandar bin Sultan and America’s Tangled Relationship with Saudi Arabia (New York: Walker, 2008); Dam Entous, Nour Malas and Margaret Coker, ‘A veteran Saudi power player works to build support to topple Assad’, Wall Street Journal 23/8/13.
87.Hassan Hassan, ‘Saudis overtaking Qatar in sponsoring Syrian rebels’, The National 15/5/13.
88.‘The latest expansion of the Syrian coalition’, The National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces 31/5/13, http://en.etilaf.org/press/the-latest-expansion-of-the-syrian-coalition.html [accessed 12/11/15].
89.Hassan Hassan, ‘Syria is now Saudi Arabia’s problem’, Foreign Policy, 6/6/13.
90.Raphael Lefevre, ‘Saudi and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’, Middle East Institute 27/9/13, http://www.mei.edu/content/saudi-arabia-and-syrian-brotherhood [accessed 2/5/15].
Chapter 6: ‘Arm the rebels!’ Backing the armed opposition
1.‘The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit: the Manama Dialogue, second plenary session’ 8/12/12, https://www.iiss.org//media/Documents/Events/Manama%20Dialogue/MD2012/Plenary%202%20QA.pdf [accessed 12/10/15].
2.‘Syrian army colonel defects forms Free Syrian Army’, Asharq al-Awsat 1/8/15.
3.Abboud, Syria, L1726.
4.Interview with US officials, Washington, July 2014; Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1800.
5.Aron Lund, ‘The Free Syria Army doesn’t exist’, Syria Comment,16/3/13, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-free-syrian-army-doesnt-exist/ [accessed 1/2/15].
6.Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 85.
7.Ibid., p. 83.
8.Jonathan Littell, Syrian Notebooks: Inside the Homs Uprising (London: Verso Books, 2015), [Kindle edition], L1064; interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
9.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1738.
10.Hokayem Syria’s Uprising, pp. 88–89.
11.David Butter, Syria’s Economy: Picking up the Pieces, Chatham House Research Paper June (2015).
12.The perpetrators of this attack remain unknown. Some have questioned how rebel forces could have infiltrated such a secure location, when they proved unable to repeat the feat thereafter. This has prompted some to speculate that the assassination may have been an inside job against Shawkat. Shawkat was a possible rival to Assad, with strong ties in the security establishment and the Alawi community. He also had long-standing ties with French intelligence. Some have speculated the IRGC were behind the attack, targeting Shawkat for opposing increased Iranian involvement in Syria. Alternatively, there was a history of bad blood between Shawkat and Assad’s younger brother and enforcer Maher. In the past, regime insiders had been found dead in suspicious circumstances at times of great convenience to Damascus, such as the suicide of former head of Syria’s security apparatus in Lebanon, Gazi Kannan in October 2005, just as he was allegedly about to pass to the UN evidence linking the regime to the assassination of Rafik Hariri.
13.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 91.
14.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L1776.
15.Joshua Landis, ‘Islamic Education in Syria: Undoing Secularism’. Unpublished paper prepared for ‘Constructs of Inclusion and Exclusion: Religion and Identity Formation in Middle Eastern School Curricula’, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, November 2003. https://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/Islamic%20Education%20in%20Syria.htm [accessed 20/2/15]
16.Lister, The Syria Jihad (London: Hurst, 2015), pp. 31–47.
17.The border posts were Bab al-Hawa, Bab al-Salameh, Jarablus on the Turkish border, and al-Bukamal on the Iraqi. Ibid., pp.1 and 77.
18.Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, Les Chemins de Damas: Le dossier noir de la relation franco-syrienne (Paris: Robert Lafront, 2014) [Kindle edition].
19.Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Isis: Inside the Army of Terror (New York: Regan Arts, 2015) [Kindle edition] L2104.
20.Ibid., L2135; Lister, The Syria Jihad (London: Hurst, 2015,) p. 55.
21.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 97.
22.Raphaël Lefèvre, Ashes of Hama: The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 193; ‘Guide to Syrian rebels’, BBC 13/12/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24403003 [accessed 12/4/15].
23.Sam Heller and Aaron Stein, ‘The problem with Turkey’s favourite Syrian Islamists’, War on the Rocks 18/8/15, http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/the-trouble-with-turkeys-favorite-syrian-islamists/ [accessed 10/10/15].
24.Rania Abouzeid, ‘Meet the Islamist militants fighting alongside Syria’s rebels’, Time, 26/7/12; Herve Bar, ‘Ahrar al-Sham jihadists emerge from shadows in north Syria’, Daily Star 13/2/13 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Feb-13/206284-ahrar-al-sham-jihadists-emerge-from-shadows-in-north-syria.ashx [accessed 10/10/15]. [shorten?]
25.‘Syria: mapping militant organisations’, Stanford University, http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/maps/view/syria [accessed 16/12/15].
26.Lister, The Syria Jihad, pp. 99–100.
27.‘Syria Document: founding declaration of the Islamic Front’,EA Worldview 2/12/13, http://eaworldview.com/2013/12/syria-document-founding-declaration-islamic-front/ [accessed 16/12/15].
28.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L2208; Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 56–57.
29.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 58.
30.Ibid., p. 85.
31.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
32.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 7–8.
33.Danny Gold, ‘Meet the YPG, the Kurdish militia that doesn’t want help from anyone’, Vice 31/10/12, http://www.vice.com/read/meet-the-ypg [accessed 16/12/15.]
34.Harriet Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria (London: I.B. Tauris, 2014), p. 211.
35.Ibid., p. 214.
36.Wladimir van Wilgenburg, ‘Syrian Kurds agree to disagree’, Al-Monitor 30/12/13, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/syria-kurds-geneva-opposition-delegation-peace.html# [accessed 16/10/15].
37.Kheder Khaddour, The Assad Regime’s hold on the Syrian State, Carnegie Research Paper 8/7/15, http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/07/08/assad-regime-s-hold-on-syrian-state/id3k [accessed 5/9/15].
38.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 96.
39.Allsopp, The Kurds of Syria.
40.Khaled Hroub, ‘Qatar and the Arab Spring’, Heinrich Böll Stiftung 2013, http://lb.boell.org/en/2014/03/03/qatar-and-arab-spring-conflict-intl-politics [accessed 5/5/15]; Madawi al-Rasheed ‘Saudi Arabia: local and regional challenges’, Contemporary Arab Affairs, 6:1 (2013): 28–40; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Qatar and the Arab Spring (London: Hurst, 2014), p. 136.
41.Ulrichsen, Qatar, p. 112.
42.‘Assad emails: “I’m sure you have many places to turn to, including Doha”’, Guardian 14/3/12.
43.Various Qatar officials and experts, Doha, February 2015.
44.Christopher M. Blanchard, Qatar: Background and US Relations, Congressional Research Service paper, 4/11/14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdf [accessed 6/5/15].
45.Ulrichsen, Qatar, p. 114.
46.Various Qatar officials and experts, Doha, February 2015.
47.Lina Khatib, ‘Qatar’s foreign policy: the limits of pragmatism’, International Affairs 89.2 (2013): 417–431.
48.‘Article 7’, Qatar’s Constitution of 2003, https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Qatar_2003.pdf [accessed 10/8/15].
49.Nonnemann in Ulrichsen, Qatar, p. 70.
50.Nour Malas, ‘Syria rebels plead for ammunition’, Wall Street Journal 3/3/12 http://on.wsj.com/1y3D2dq [accessed 5/5/15].
51.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 86.
52.Ruth Sherlock, ‘Libya to arm rebels in Syria’, Telegraph 27/11/11.
53.J. Vela, ‘Rebel forces armed by wealthy exiles’. Independent 23/2/12.
54.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 76.
55.Ulrichsen, Qatar, p. 136.
56.‘Final report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1973 (2011) concerning Libya’, United Nations Security Council S /2014/106 19/2/14, p. 47, http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27–4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2014_106.pdf [accessed 14/7/15].
57.Interviews with Turkish officials, July 2012, September 2013, January 2015.
58.Multiple interviews with western officials 2012–15; C. J. Chivers and Eric Schmitt, ‘Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, with Aid from C.I.A.’, New York Times 24/3/13.
59.‘Final report of the Panel of Experts’, p. 48.
60.C. J. Chivers and Eric Schmitt, ‘Saudis step up help for rebels in Syria with Croatian arms’, New York Times 25/2/13.
61.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 99–100.
62.Interview with Qatar based western officials, Doha, February 2015.
63.Phil Sands and Suha Maayeh, ‘Syrian rebels get arms and advice through secret command centre in Amman’, The National 28/12/13, http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/syrian-rebels-get-arms-and-advice-through-secret-command-centre-in-amman [accessed 5/5/15].
64.In a meeting with Kerry in Istanbul April 2013, all three agree to channel all weapons via the FSA–SMC. See Karen DeYoung, Anne Gearan and Scott Wilson, ‘Decision to arm Syrian rebels was reached weeks ago, U.S. officials say’, Washington Post 14/6/13 reached-weeks-
65.The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit’, 8/12/12.
66.Shapiro, ‘The Qatar Problem’, Foreign Policy 28/8/13.
67.Interview with Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
68.Rania Abouzeid, ‘Syria’s secular and Islamist rebels: who are the Saudis and the Qatars arming?’ Time 18/9/12.
69.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, pp. 121–123.
70.Interview with US official, Washington, July 2014.
71.Interviews with Jordanian officials, Amman, April 2014.
72.Hassan Hassan, ‘Syria is now Saudi Arabia’s problem’, Foreign Policy 6/6/13.
73.Interview with western officials in Turkey, Ankara, July 2012.
74.Correspondence with former Tawheed fighters, 2016.
75.Raymond Hinnebusch, ‘Back to enmity: Turkey–Syria relations since the Syrian uprising’, Orient, Journal of German Orient Institute (2015).
76.Interview with Turkish officials, January 2015.
77.William McCants, ‘Gulf charities and Syrian sectarianism’, Foreign Policy 30/9/13; Elizabeth Dickinson, ‘Follow the money: how Syrian Salafis are funded from the Gulf’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 23/12/13, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=54011 [accessed 17/3/14].
78.McCants, ‘Gulf charities’.
79.Stephane Lacroix, Saudi Islamists and the Arab Spring, Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, Research Paper 36, May 2014 http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/56725/1/Lacroix_Saudi-Islamists-and-theArab-Spring_2014.pdf [accessed 12/8/15].
80.Dickinson, ‘Follow the money’.
81.Elizabeth Dickinson, ‘The Syrian war’s private donors lose faith’, New Yorker 16/1/14.
82.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 96; ‘The charm of telesalafism’, Economist 20/10/12.
83.‘Syria conflict: Cleric Qaradawi urges Sunnis to join rebels’, BBC, 13/1/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22741588 (accessed 12/3/14).
84.Alexander Kühn, Christoph Reuter and Gregor Peter Schmitz, ‘After the Arab Spring: Al-Jazeera Losing Battle for Independence’ Spiegel Online International 15/2/13 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/al-jazeera-criticized-for-lack-of-independence-after-arab-spring-a-883343.html [accessed 10/5/14]
85.F. Wehrey, ‘Saudi Arabia reins in its clerics on Syria’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2012. http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/saudi-arabia-reins-in-its-clerics-on-syria/bu10. [accessed 12/3/14].
86.Dickinson, ‘Follow the money’.
87.‘ICSR Insight: Up to 11,000 foreign fighters in Syria; steep rise among Western Europeans’, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence 17/12/2013 http://icsr.info/2013/12/icsr-insight-11000-foreign-fighters-syria-steep-rise-among-western-europeans/ [accessed 12/6/15]; Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 1.
88.Elizabeth Dickinson, ‘The Syrian war’s private donors lose faith’; Rania Abouzeid, ‘Syria’s secular and Islamist rebels’.
89.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L2613.
90.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising.
91.Interviews with US official, Washington, May 2015; interview with Alistair Burt, London, 18/11/14.
92.Interviews with US official, Washington, May 2015.
93.Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices: A Memoir (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2014), pp. 447–470.
94.‘Syrian rebels get influx of arms with Gulf neighbours’ money, US cooperation’, Washington Post 15/5/12.
95.‘Syrian rebels get influx of arms’, Washington Post; Eric Schmitt, ‘C.I.A. said to aid in steering arms to Syrian opposition’, New York Times 21/6/12; interview with western official, March 2015; interview with British official, October 2014.
96.Clinton, Hard Choices, pp. 447–470.
97.Clinton, Hard Choices, pp. 447–470; Kim Ghattas, The Secretary: A Journey with Hillary Clinton from Beirut to the Heart of American Power (London: Macmillan, 2013), p. 336.
98.Anne Gearan and Karen DeYoung, ‘Obama unlikely to reconsider arming Syrian rebels despite views of security staff’, Washington Post 8/2/13.
99.DeYoung, Gearan and Wilson, ‘Decision to arm Syrian rebels’.
100.‘US and UK suspend non-lethal aid for Syria rebels’ BBC 11/12/13.
101.Interview with Alistair Burt, London, 18/11/14; interview with British official, London, October 2014.
102.‘US says it will give military aid to Syria rebels’ BBC 14/6/13.
103.Charles Lister, for example, argues that the failure for the international community to support the fledgling FSA in mid-2011 contributed to its ultimate weakness and the rise of radicals. Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 390.
104.Mark Mazzetti, ‘C.I.A. study of covert aid fueled skepticism about helping Syrian rebels’, New York Times 14/10/14.
105.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 107.
106.Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising, p. 123.
Chapter 7: To the hilt: Assad’s allies dig in
1.‘Iran’s new president Hassan Rouhani vows to support Syrian regime as President Assad vows to crush rebels with “iron fist”’, Independent 5/8/13.
2.‘Mapping the conflict in Aleppo, Syria’, Caerus, February 2014. Basel Dayoub, ‘Bustan al-Qasr crossing in Aleppo: daily humiliation and nonsensical rules’, Al-Akhbar 27/3/14 http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/19177 [accessed 10/9/15].
3.‘Are the Islamic courts in Aleppo run by al-Nusra? Aron Lund answers’, Syria Comment 18/9/13 http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/newly-founded-islamic-courts-aleppo-run-al-qaida-ask-expert-aron-lund/ [accessed 10/9/15].
4.Edward Dark, ‘Syrian Baath militia commander goes rags-to-riches’, Al-Monitor 20/11/13 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/baath-party-brigade-syria-war-aleppo.html# [accessed 10/9/15].
5.‘Syrian regime loses last credible ally among the Sunni ulema. By Thomas Pierret’, Syria Comment 22/3/13, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/syrian-regime-loses-last-credible-ally-among-the-sunni-ulama-by-thomas-pierret/ [accessed 24/5/15].
6.David W. Lesch, ‘The golden runaway’, Foreign Policy 12/7/12.
7.David Butter, Syria’s Economy: Picking up the Pieces, Chatham House Research Paper June (2015).
8.Kheder Khaddour, The Assad Regime’s hold on the Syrian State, Carnegie Research Paper 8/7/15, http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/07/08/assad-regime-s-hold-on-syrian-state/id3k [accessed 5/9/15].
9.Shaun Walker, ‘Plane loads of cash: flight records reveal Russia flew 30 tonnes of bank notes to Syrian regime’, Independent 26/11/12.
10.Vivienne Walt, ‘Syria’s air-defense arsenal: the Russian missiles keeping Assad in power’, Time 3/6/13.
11.Roy Allison, ‘Russia and Syria: explaining alignment with a regime in crisis’, International Affairs 89.4 (2013), 795–823; ‘Assad: Russia is supplying weapons to Syria under contracts finalized since the conflict began’, Reuters 30/5/15, http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-syria-gets-russian-arms-under-deals-signed-since-conflict-began-assad—2015–3?r=US&IR=T [accessed 10/11/15].
12.Vitaly Naumkin, ‘Russia’s Middle East policy after the G-20 summit’, Al-Monitor 24/11/14, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/russia-middle-east-policy-after-g20.html#ixzz3uTctmzmI [accessed 12/4/15].
13.‘Who is supplying weapons to the warring sides in Syria?’ BBC 14/6/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22906965 [accessed 12/4/15]; Louis Charbonneau, ‘Exclusive: Iran steps up weapons lifeline to Assad’, Reuters 14/3/13 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-syria-crisis-iran-idUSBRE92D05U20130314 [accessed 12/4/15].
14.‘Evidence of Iranian arms provided to Syria in the past 18 months’, Brown Moses Blog 20/5/13, http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/evidence-of-iranian-arms-provided-to.html [accessed 12/4/15]; ‘More evidence of sanction busting Iranian munitions deliveries to Syria’, Brown Moses Blog 26/5/13, http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/more-evidence-of-sanction-busting.html [accessed 12/4/15].
15.Dmitri Trenin, ‘The mythical alliance: Russia’s Syria policy’, Carnegie Moscow Centre, February 2013, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/mythical_alliance.pdf [accessed 6/11/14].
16.Miriam Elder and Ian Black, ‘Russia withdraws its remaining personnel from Syria’, Guardian 26/6/13.
17.Aram Nerguizian, ‘The military balance in a shattered Levant’, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 15/6/15, p. 113; http://csis.org/files/publication/150615_Nerguizian_Levant_Mil_Bal_Report_w_cover_v2.pdf [accessed 10/8/15].
18.J. Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’, in The Regional Struggle for Syria (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2013).
19.Yossi Melman and Sof Hashavua, ‘In depth: how Iranian weapons reach Hezbollah’, Jerusalem Post 25/5/13, http://www.jpost.com/Defense/In-Depth-How-Iranian-weapons-go-through-Syria-to-Hezbollah-314313 [accessed 1/5/15]; Sara Bazoobandi, ‘Iran’s regional policy: interests, challenges and ambitions’, ISPI Analysis November 2014, http://www.ispionline.it/sites/default/files/pubblicazioni/analysis_275__2014_0.pdf [accessed 15/2/16].
20.Simon Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran: Soft Power Rivalry in the Middle East (London: I.B. Tauris 2013), p. 200.
21.Paul Danahar, The New Middle East: the World after the Arab Spring (London: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2013), pp. 269–270.
22.Jonathan Schanzer, ‘The anatomy of Turkey’s “Gas-For Gold” scheme with Iran’, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies 14/3/14, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-anatomy-of-turkeys-gas-for-gold-scheme-with-iran/ [accessed 23/7/15]; Asli Kandemir, ‘Turkey to Iran gold trade wiped out by new U.S. sanction’, Reuters 15/2/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/15/us-iran-turkey-sanctions-idUSBRE91E0IN20130215 [accessed 23/7/15].
23.Nasr, Dispensable Nation, p. 207.
24.Stephen J. Flanagan, ‘The Turkey–Russia–Iran nexus: Eurasian power dynamics’. Washington Quarterly 36.1 (2013), 163–178.
25.Thomas Juneau, ‘Iran under Rouhani: still alone in the world’, Middle East Policy 21.4 (Winter 2014), 92–104.
26.Laura Rozen, ‘Three days in March: new details on how US, Iran opened direct talks’, The Backchannel 8/1/14, http://backchannel.al-monitor.com/index.php/2014/01/7484/three-days-in-march-new-details-on-the-u-s-iran-backchannel/ [accessed 23/7/15].
27.‘Shackled: The story of the world’s most elaborate sanctions regime’, Economist 1/11/14; ‘Melons for everyone’, Economist 27/10/14.
28.Mahmood Monshipouri and Manochehr Dorraj, ‘Iran’s foreign policy: a shifting strategic landscape’, Middle East Policy 20.4 (Winter 2013), pp. 133–14.
29.Juneau, ‘Iran under Rouhani’.
30.Alireza Nader, ‘Iran & Region III: goals in Syria’, The Iran Primer 26/1/15. http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2015/jan/26/iran-region-iii-goals-syria [accessed 10/10/15].
31.Eli Lake, ‘Iran spends billions to prop up Assad’, Bloomberg View 9/6/15, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015–06–09/iran-spends-billions-to-prop-up-assad [accessed 10/12/15].
32.According a Gallup poll, in December 2012 52% of Iranians polled backed economic support for Assad, 41% military support and 51% political support, while these numbers dropped to 45%, 37% and 48% respectively by June 2013. Jay Loshky, ‘Iranians support for Syria softens’, Gallup 15/11/13, http://www.gallup.com/poll/165878/iranians-support-syria-softens.aspx [accessed 12/12/14].
33.Thanassis Cambanis, ‘How do you say quagmire in Farsi?’ Foreign Policy 13/5/13.
34.‘Melons for everyone’, Economist; Kazem Alamdari, ‘Power structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran: transition from populism to clientelism, and militarization of the government’, Third World Quarterly, 2:8 (2005), 1285–1301.
35.Frederic Wehrey, Jerrold D. Green, Brian Nichiporuk, Alireza Nader, Lydia Hansell, Rasool Nafisi and S. R. Bohandy, The Rise of Pasrdaran: Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Washington, DC: Rand Corps, 2009).
36.Monshipouri and Dorraj, ‘Iran’s foreign policy’.
37.Dexter Filkins, ‘The shadow commander’, New Yorker 30/9/13.
38.Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’.
39.Ibid.
40.Hokayem, Syria’s uprising.
41.Marisa Sullivan, ‘Hezbollah in Syria’, Institute for the Study of War, April 2014, p. 11, http://www.understandingwar.org/report/hezbollah-syria [accessed 12/5/15]; Abboud, Syria, L2156.
42.Ibid., p. 12.
43.Jeffrey White, ‘The Qusayr rules: the Syrian regime’s changing way of war’, Washington Institute, 31/5/13, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-qusayr-rules-the-syrian-regimes-changing-way-of-war [accessed 20/1/16].
44.Alex Rowell, ‘Mapping Hezbollah’s Syria war since 2011’, Now Lebanon 12/8/15, https://mobile.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/565725-mapping-hezbollahs-syria-war-since-2011 [accessed 3/9/15].
45.Sullivan, ‘Hezbollah in Syria’, p. 9.
46.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
47.Christopher Phillips, ‘Sectarianism and conflict in Syria’, Third World Quarterly, 36:2 (2015), 357–376.
48.Hezbollah Turns Eastward to Syria International Crisis Group Middle East Report no.153, 27/5/14, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/lebanon/153-lebanon-s-hizbollah-turns-eastward-to-syria.aspx [accessed 3/5/15].
49.Sullivan, ‘Hezbollah in Syria’.
50.Martin Chulov, ‘Lebanon’s great divide exposed by assassination of security chief’, Guardian 19/10/12.
51.Hezbollah Turns Eastward to Syria, p. 10.
52.Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Isis: Inside the Army of Terror (New York: Regan Arts, 2015) [Kindle edition] L2068.
53.See for example Naame Shaam, ‘Iran in Syria from an ally of the regime to an occupying force’ (September 2014), http://www.naameshaam.org/report-iran-in-syria/ [accessed 2/3/15].
54.Filkins, ‘The shadow commander’.
55.Ibid.
56.Naame Shaam, ‘Iran in Syria’.
57.Joseph Holliday, Syria’s Maturing Insurgency, Institute for the Study of War, June 2012, http://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-maturing-insurgency [accessed 7/7/15]; Joseph Holliday, The Assad Regime: From Counter-insurgency to Civil War, Institute for the Study of War, March 2013, http://www.understandingwar.org/report/assad-regime [accessed 7/7/15]; interview with former Damascus-based western diplomat, March 2015.
58.Naame Shaam, ‘Iran in Syria’, p. 16.
59.Filkins, ‘The shadow commander’.
60.Hassan and Weiss, Isis [Kindle edition] L2074.
61.Ibid., L2062; the regime relied on its special forces and elite units as mobile offensive forces. See Christopher Kozak, ‘“An army in all corners” Assad’s campaign strategy in Syria’, Institute for the Study of War, April 2015, p. 13, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/An%20Army%20in%20All%20Corners%20by%20Chris%20Kozak%201.pdf [accessed 7/7/15]
62.Filkins, ‘The shadow commander’.
63.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 128.
64.Patrick Seale, Asad of Syria: the Struggle for the Middle East (University of California Press, 1990), p. 327; Holliday, ‘The Assad regime’.
65.Kheder Khaddour, ‘Securing the Syrian regime’, Sada, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 3/6/14.
66.Will Fulton, Joseph Holliday and Sam Wyer, ‘Iranian Strategy in Syria’ May 2013, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/IranianStrategyinSyria-1MAY.pdf [accessed 13/7/15]; Abboud, Syria, L2105.
67.Goodarzi, ‘Iran: Syria as the first line of defense’.
68.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L2044.
69.Ibid.
70.Nicholas Blanford, Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-year Struggle against Israel (London: Random House, 2011); discussion with Dr Filippo Dionigi, London School of Economics, July 2015.
71.Interviews with Syrians, Lebanon, August 2013, January–February 2015.
72.Patrick Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution (London: Verso Books, 2015). [Kindle edition].
73.Kozak, ‘ “An army in all corners” ’.
74.Ibid., p. 16.
75.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L2092; Fulton, Holliday and Wyer, ‘Iranian strategy in Syria’, p. 24.
76.Mona Mahmood and Martin Chulov, ‘Syrian war widens Sunni–Shia schism as foreign jihadis join fight for shrines’, Guardian 4/6/13.
77.Lister, Syrian Jihad, p. 386.
78.Philip Smyth, ‘Iran’s Afghan Shiite fighters in Syria’, Washington Institute 3/6/14, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-afghan-shiite-fighters-in-syria [accessed 5/7/15].
79.Christopher Reuter, ‘Syria’s mercenaries: the Afghans fighting Assad’s war’, Spiegel Online 11/5/15, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/afghan-mercenaries-fighting-for-assad-and-stuck-in-syria-a-1032869.html [accessed 7/8/15].
80.Jihad Yazigi, ‘Syria’s war economy’, ECFR, April 2014 http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR97_SYRIA_BRIEF_AW.pdf [accessed 4/12/14].
81.Khaddour, ‘The Assad regime’s hold on the Syrian state’.
82.Butter, ‘Syria’s economy’.
83.‘Syria’, CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html [accessed 7/8/14].
84.Salam al-Saadi, ‘Iran’s stake in Syria’s economy’, Sada for Carnegie 2/6/15, http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2015/06/02/iran-s-stakes-in-syria-s-economy/i9cj [accessed 2/8/15].
85.Ibid.
86.Butter, ‘Syria’s economy’; Yazigi, ‘Syria’s war economy’.
87.Christopher Phillips, ‘What is left of Assad’s state is eroding from within’, Chatham House 9/3/15, http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/17113 [accessed 24/8/15]; ‘Syrian regional refugee response’, UNHCR http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php [accessed 26/03/16].
88.Holliday, ‘The Assad regime’.
89.Kozak, ‘“An army in all corners”.
90.Abboud, Syria, L2066.
91.Sam Dagher, ‘Iran’s Foreign Legion leads battle in Syria’s north’, Wall Street Journal 17/2/16.
92.Naame Shaam, ‘Iran in Syria’.
93.Discussed further in Chapter 6, note 12.
94.Interview with various parties to track II discussions with Iranian officials, 2014–16.
Chapter 8: No red lines: the question of western military intervention
1.Fernande van Tets, ‘Exodus: terrified Syrians dash to flee air strikes’, Independent 1/9/13.
2.The White House’s preliminary estimation of 1,429 was the highest made by non-Syrian sources; British and French estimations were lower. ‘Government assessment of the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons on August 21, 2013’, White House 30/8/13, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21 [accessed 9/12/15].
3.Martin Chulov and Mona Mahmood, ‘Syria’s elite join compatriots to flee country fearing western air strike’, Guardian 27/8/13.
4.See, for example, Haroon Siddiqui, ‘Bomb Assad’s palaces and army barracks’, Toronto Star 2/6/12.
5.Interview with senior British official, October 2014.
6.‘NATO rules out Syria intervention’, al-Jazeera 1/11/11, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/201111103948699103.html [accessed 9/4/15].
7.Mark Mazzetti, Robert F. Worth and Michael R. Gordon, ‘Obama’s uncertain path amid Syria bloodshed’, New York Times 22/10/13; Christopher Phillips, ‘Intervention and non-intervention in the Syria crisis’, in F. Kühn and M. Turner (eds), The Politics of International Intervention (London: Routledge, 2016).
8.Interviews with US officials, Washington, July 2014.
9.Kim Ghattas, The Secretary: A Journey with Hillary Clinton from Beirut to the Heart of American Power (London: Macmillan, 2013), p. 317.
10.‘Syrian army defector urges limited NATO intervention’, Atlantic Council 16/7/12, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/syrian-army-defector-urges-limited-nato-intervention [accessed 10/11/15].
11.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15.
12.Interview with Bassma Kodmani, Paris, 31/8/15; interview with Turkish official, Ankara, July 2012; interview with US official, Washington, May 2015.
13.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
14.Bilgin Ayata, ‘Turkish foreign policy in a changing Arab world: rise and fall of a regional actor?’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015).
15.Philip Robins, Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War (London: Hurst, 2003), pp. 45–48.
16.Jeremy Shapiro, ‘The Qatar problem’, Foreign Policy 28/8/13 – http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/28/the_qatar_problem [accessed 3/4/14].
17.Ibid.
18.‘Majority of Turks against Syria intervention: survey’, Hurriyet 6/9/13, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/majority-of-turks-against-syria-intervention-survey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=53995&NewsCatID=34 [accessed 12/12/15].
19.Murat Yetkin, ‘Syria intervention not off table’, Hurriyet 12/8/11, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx?pageid=438&n=syria-intervention-not-off-table-2011–08–12#.TkaR7iNMDA8.blogger [accessed 12/12/15].
20.Interview with Turkish official, Ankara, July 2012.
21.Michael R. Gordon, ‘Israel airstrike targeted advanced missiles that Russia sold to Syria, U.S. says’, New York Times 13/7/13.
22.‘UN peacekeepers withdraw from Syria-controlled sector of Golan Heights’, Middle East Eye 15/9/14, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/un-peacekeepers-withdrawn-syria-controlled-sector-golan-heights-819345932 [accessed 24/11/15].
23.Caroline Mortimer, ‘Israel on verge of sending troops into Syria over increased threat of terrorist attack’, Independent 17/8/15.
24.‘UN peacekeepers withdraw’, Middle East Eye.
25.‘Iran general died in “Israeli strike” in Syrian Golan’, BBC 19/1/15, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30882935 [accessed 1/2/16].
26.Martin Chulov and Kareem Shaheen, ‘Leading Hezbollah commander and key Israel target killed in Syria’ The Guardian 13/5/16, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/13/hezbollah-commander-killed-israel-mustafa-badreddine [accessed 13/5/16]
27.Jay Solomon, ‘U.S., Israel monitor suspected Syrian WMD’, Wall Street Journal, 27/8/11; Mary Beth D. Nikitin, ‘Syria’s chemical weapons: issues for Congress’, Congressional Research Service 30/9/13, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R42848.pdf [accessed 24/11/15].
28.In March 1988 in the final days of the Iran–Iraq war, Saddam Hussein’s forces dropped chemical weapons on the Iranian-occupied Iraqi-Kurdish town of Halabja, killing up to 5,000 civilians.
29.Ian Black, ‘Syria insists chemical weapons would only be used against outside forces’, Guardian, 24/7/12.
30.Kilic Bugra Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts: Obama’s Syria Policy (Washington, DC: SETA, 2015), p. 99.
31.Ibid., p. 103.
32.Interview with US official, Washington, August 2014; Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 102.
33.‘Amateur footage emerges of Syrian jets deployed against rebels’, Telegraph 25/7/12.
34.Some noted that this may have been the unintended consequence of Obama’s red line comment – that Assad viewed all weapons below this as ‘fair game’. See Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt, ‘Syria uses Scud missiles in new effort to push back rebels’, New York Time,12/12/12.
35.‘Gas used in Homs leaves seven people dead and scores affected, activists say’, al-Jazeera 24/12/12, http://blogs.aljazeera.com/topic/syria/gas-used-homs-leaves-seven-people-dead-and-scores-affected-activists-say [accessed 5/7/15].
36.United Nations Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic Final Report, United Nations, https://unoda-web.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/report.pdf [accessed 5/7/15].
37.Ibid., p. 7.
38.See note Chapter 8, note 2.
39.‘Modern warfare’, CBRNe World February 2014, http://www.cbrneworld.com/_uploads/download_magazines/Sellstrom_Feb_2014_v2.pdf [accessed 5/7/15].
40.Vladimir V. Putin, ‘A plea for caution from Russia’, New York Times 11/9/13.
41.Report of the United Nations Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic on the alleged use of chemical weapons in the Ghouta area of Damascus on 21 August 2013, United Nations, 16/9/13, A /67/997-S /2013/553 https://disarmament-library.un.org/UNODA/Library.nsf/780cfafd472b047785257b1000501037/e4d4477c9b67de9085257bf800694bd2/$FILE/A%2067%20997-S%202013%20553.pdf [accessed 5/9/15].
42.Matezzi et al. in Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 120.
43.Interview with Fred Hof, Washington, 30/7/14; Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 102.
44.Interviews with US officials, Washington July–August 2014.
45.Shadi Hamid, ‘Why doesn’t Obama seem to listen to Syria experts?’, Brookings 10/2/16, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2016/02/10-obama-syria-policy-experts-hamid [accessed 1/4/16]; Marc Lynch, ‘After the political science relevance revolution’, Washington Post, 23/3/16.
46.Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 104.
47.David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, ‘Pentagon says 75,000 troops might be needed to seize Syria chemical arms’, New York Times 15/11/12
48.John Kerry, ‘Remarks on Syria’, US Department of State 26/8/13, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/08/213503.htm [accessed 14/5/15].
49.Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 122; Nina Burleigh, ‘Obama vs the Hawks’, Rolling Stone 1/4/14.
50.For a full account of the White House’s deliberations see Burleigh, ‘Obama vs the Hawks’.
51.Interview with UK official, February 2015.
52.For a full account see ‘The Syria vote: one day in August’, BBC Radio 4, 10/11/14, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04nrqsk [accessed 14/5/15].
53.Kanat, A Tale of Four Augusts, p. 124.
54.Jeffrey Goldberg, ‘The Obama doctrine’, Atlantic, April 2016.
55.David Rothkopf, ‘The gamble’, Foreign Policy 31/8/13.
56.Interview with Lahkdar Brahimi, Paris, 31/8/15.
57.Arshad Mohammed, ‘Kerry: Syrian surrender of chemical arms could stop U.S. attack’, Reuters 9/9/13 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-kerry-idUSBRE9880BV20130909 [accessed 14/6/15].
58.Julian Borger and Patrick Wintour, ‘Russia calls on Syria to hand over chemical weapons’, Guardian, 9/9/13; interview with US officials, Washington, July 2014.
59.Goldberg, ‘The Obama doctrine’, Atlantic.
60.Carlo Munoz, ‘McCain, Graham: Syria deal an “act of weakness” by White House’, The Hill 14/9/13 http://thehill.com/policy/defense/322281-syria-deal-an-act-of-weakness-by-white-house-say-senate-republicans [accessed 4/8/15]; Richard Spencer, ‘Barack Obama rejects accusations of American weakness over Syria’, Telegraph 15/9/13.
61.Burleigh, ‘Obama vs the Hawks’.
62.Ibid.
63.Thomas Juneau, ‘U.S. power in the Middle East: not declining’, Middle East Policy, 21.2 (Summer 2014), 40–52; interview with various Russian officials and former officials, Moscow, November 2014.
64.Burleigh, ‘Obama vs the Hawks’.
65.Goldberg, ‘The Obama doctrine’, Atlantic.
66.Ibid.
67.Colum Lynch, ‘Saudis to push General Assembly vote on Syria intervention’, Foreign Policy, 6/9/13; interview with Saudi official, Riyadh, March 2015.
68.Frank Gardner, ‘Saudi Arabia flexing its muscles in Middle East’, BBC 8/8/15 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33825064 [accessed 13/10/15].
69.Richard Hall, ‘Syria crisis: coalition of powerful rebel groups rejects Western-backed opposition’, Independent 25/9/15.
70.Khaled Yacoub Oweis, ‘Insight: Saudi Arabia boosts Salafist rivals to al Qaeda in Syria’, Reuters 1/10/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/us-syria-crisis-jihadists-insight-idUSBRE9900RO20131001 [accessed 13/10/15].
71.Interview with Turkish official, January 2015.
72.İlhan Uzgel, ‘New Middle East: Turkey from being a playmaker to seclusion in the New Middle East’, Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey, IV.1 (2015), 47–55.
73.Jeremy Shapiro, ‘The Qatar problem’, Foreign Policy 28/8/13 – http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/28/the_qatar_problem [accessed 3/4/14].
74.Bayram Balci, ‘Turkey’s flirtation with Syrian Jihadism’, Carnegie 7/11/13, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=53532 [accessed 3/4/14].
75.Dominic Evans, ‘Rebels battle for Syria border post near Mediterranean’, Reuters 22/3/14, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/23/us-syria-crisis-idUSBREA2L0G020140323 [accessed 24/11/15].
76.‘Syrian Regional Refugee Response’, UNHCR http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php [accessed 17/12/15] [italicise if report title]
Chapter 9: Descent into chaos: stalemate and the rise of ISIS
1.Alistair Horne, The Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954–1962 (New York: New York Review Book Classics, 2006 [1977]), p. 518.
2.‘The boy killed for an off-hand remark about Muhammad – Sharia spreads in Syria’, BBC 2/7/13 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23139784 [accessed 14/1/15].
3.Interview with Lahkdar Brahimi, Paris, 31/8/15.
4.Richard Spencer, ‘Syria: Bashar al-Assad agrees “in principle” to head to peace conference’, Telegraph 24/5/13.
5.Roland Dannreuther, ‘Russia and the Arab Spring: supporting the counter-revolution’, Journal of European Integration 37.1 (2015), 77–94.
6.‘Syrian National Coalition agrees Geneva talks position’, BBC 11/11/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24894536 [accessed 22/6/15].
7.Interview with Robert Ford, Washington, 15/6/15.
8.‘Islamist rebels reject “hollow” Syria peace talks’, Daily Star 20/1/14.
9.Mahmood Monshipouri and Manochehr Dorraj, ‘Iran’s foreign policy: a shifting strategic landscape’, Middle East Policy, 20.4 (Winter 2013), 133–147.
10.Kim Sengupta, ‘Syria peace talks: John Kerry leads calls for removal of President Bashar al-Assad’, Independent 22/1/14 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-un-peace-talks-syrian-foreign-minister-calls-opposition-fighters-traitors-9076574.html [accessed 30/8/15]. [check: online title different]
11.David E. Cunningham, ‘Blocking resolution: how external states can prolong civil wars’, Journal of Peace Research 47.2 (2010), 115–127.
12.‘Gulf ambassadors pulled from Qatar over “interference”’, BBC 5/3/14 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26447914 [accessed 12/7/15].
13.Glen Greenwald, ‘How former Treasury officials and the UAE are manipulating American journalists’, The Intercept 25/9/14 https://theintercept.com/2014/09/25/uae-qatar-camstoll-group/.
14.Erika Solomon ‘Betrayal and disarray behind Syrian rebel rout in Yabroud’, Financial Times 21/3/14.
15.Robert Mason, ‘Back to realism for an enduring U.S.–Saudi relationship’, Middle East Policy 21.4 (Winter 2014), 32–44.
16.Numerous conversations with western and regional officials.
17.David B. Ottoway, ‘The struggle for power in Saudi Arabia’, Foreign Policy 19/6/13; Mason, ‘Back to realism’.
18.Simon Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran: Soft Power Rivalry in the Middle East (London: I..B Tauris, 2013), p. 129.
19.David D. Kirkpatrick, ‘Muslim Brotherhood says Qatar ousted its members’, New York Times 13/9/14, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/middleeast/bowing-to-pressure-qatar-asks-some-muslim-brotherhood-leaders-to-leave.html?_r=2 [accessed 20/5/15].
20.Abboud, Syria [Kindle edition] L2001.
21.Liz Sly, ‘How Saddam Hussein’s former military officers and spies are controlling Isis’, Independent 5/4/15.
22.Patrick Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution (London: Verso Books, 2015) [Kindle edition] L536.
23.Fred Lawson, ‘Implications of the 2011–13 Syrian uprising for the Middle Eastern Regional Security Complex’, Georgetown Papers, 2014.
24.Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Isis: Inside the Army of Terror (New York: Regan Arts, 2015) [Kindle edition] L2824.
25.Estimates by the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.
26.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L2680.
27.Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, ‘Islamic State vs. Al-Qaeda’, Foundation for the Defence of Democracies 4/12/15, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/gartenstein-ross-daveed-islamic-state-vs-al-qaeda/ [accessed 17/12/15].
28.Fred H. Lawson, ‘Syria’s mutating civil war and its impact on Turkey, Iraq and Iran’, International Affairs 90.6. 2014, 1351–1365.
29.Ibid.
30.Rim Turkmani, ‘Countering the logic of the war economy in Syria; evidence from three local areas’, Security in Transition Report for the London School of Economics 30/7/15, http://www.securityintransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Countering-war-economy-Syria2.pdf [accessed 12/11/15],
31.Ben Hubbard, Clifford Kraus and Eric Schmitt, ‘Rebels in Syria claim control of resources’, New York Times 28/1/14.
32.David Butter, Syria’s Economy: Picking up the Pieces, Chatham House Research Paper, June (2015).
33.Ibid.
34.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L235.
35.Lauren Williams, ‘Syrians adjust to life under ISIS rule’, Daily Star 30/8/14.
36.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L431.
37.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 34.
38.Ruth Sherlock, ‘Exclusive interview: why I defected from Bashar al-Assad’s regime, by former diplomat Nawaf Fares’, Telegraph 14/7/12.
39.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L1521.
40.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 32–47.
41.Ibid., L3178.
42.Butter, ‘Syria’s economy’.
43.Ruth Sherlock and Richard Spencer, ‘Syria’s Assad accused of boosting al-Qaeda with secret oil deals’, Telegraph 20/1/14.
44.Discussed in Chapter 7, see p. 151
45.‘Bashar al-Assad wins re-election in Syria as uprising against him rages on’, Guardian 4/6/14.
46.Weiss and Hassan, Isis [Kindle edition] L3159.
47.Butter, ‘Syria’s economy’.
48.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L374.
49.Lauren Williams, ‘Syria’s Alawites not deserting Assad yet, despite crackdown’, Middle East Eye 11/9/14, http://www.middleeasteye.net/in-depth/features/syrias-alawites-not-deserting-assad-yet-despite-crackdown-526622504 [accessed 12/4/15].
50.Christopher Kozak, ‘“An army in all corners”: Assad’s campaign strategy in Syria’. Institute for the Study of War, April 2015, p. 13, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/An%20Army%20in%20All%20Corners%20by%20Chris%20Kozak%201.pdf [accessed 7/7/15].
51.Nicholas Watt, ‘Tony Blair makes qualified apology for Iraq war ahead of Chilcot report’, Guardian 25/10/15, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/25/tony-blair-sorry-iraq-war-mistakes-admits-conflict-role-in-rise-of-isis [accessed 4/8/15].
52.Emma Sky, The Unraveling (New York: Public Affairs, 2015), pp. 329–344.
53.Toby Dodge, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 116.
54.‘Isis captured 2,300 Humvee armoured vehicles from Iraqi forces in Mosul’, Guardian 1/6/15.
55.‘Department of Defense Information Report, Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence – Iraq’ 3/7/12 http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf [accessed 4/8/15].
56.Steve Contorno, ‘What Obama said about Islamic State as a “JV” team’, Politifact 7/9/14, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/sep/07/barack-obama/what-obama-said-about-islamic-state-jv-team/ [accessed 14/10/15].
57.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L755.
58.Janice Dickson, ‘Turkey turns blind eye to ISIS fighters using its hospitals: sources’, Ipolitics 27/5/15, http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/27/turkey-turns-blind-eye-to-isis-fighters-using-its-hospitals-sources/ accessed 14/10/15].
59.Fazel Hawramy and Luke Harding, ‘Inside Islamic State’s oil empire: how captured oilfields fuel Isis insurgency,’ Guardian 19/11/14 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/19/-sp-islamic-state-oil-empire-iraq-isis [accessed 14/2/15]; Butter, ‘Syria’s economy’.
60.Christopher M. Blanchard, Qatar: Background and US Relations, Congressional Research Service paper, 4/11/14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdf [accessed 6/5/15].
61.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L137; Evan Osnos, The Biden agenda’, New Yorker 28/7/14.
62.Ewan Stein, ‘Modalities of Jihadist activism in the Middle East and North Africa’, IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2015, http://www.iemed.org/observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2015/IEMed%20Yearbook%202015_JihadismMENA_EwanStein.pdf [accessed 12/12/15].
63.Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State [Kindle edition] L181.
64.Stephane Lacroix, Saudi Islamists and the Arab Spring, Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, Research Paper 36, May 2014, http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/56725/1/Lacroix_Saudi-Islamists-and-theArab-Spring_2014.pdf [accessed 12/8/15].
65.Michael Weiss, ‘Russia is sending Jihadis to join ISIS’, Daily Beast 23/8/15, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/23/russia-s-playing-a-double-game-with-islamic-terror0.html [accessed 2/3/16].
66.Lister, The Syrian Jihad.
67.Mason, ‘Back to realism’.
68.Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, ‘Iran’s ISIS policy’, International Affairs 91.1 (2015), 1–15.
69.Marc Lynch, ‘Obama and the Middle East’, Foreign Affairs September/October 2015,.
70.Ibid.
71.‘Strikes in Syria and Iraq’, Operation Inherent Resolve – US Department of Defense http://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve [accessed 28/3/15].
72.‘Foreign fighters: an updated assessment of the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq’, The Soufan group 8/12/15 http://soufangroup.com/foreign-fighters/ [accessed 12/12/15].
73.Alireza Nader, ‘Iran & Region III: goals in Syria’, The Iran Primer 26/1/15, http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2015/jan/26/iran-region-iii-goals-syria [accessed 10/10/15]; İlhan Uzgel, ‘New Middle East: Turkey from being a playmaker to seclusion in the new Middle East’, Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey, IV.1 (2015), 47–55.
74.Interview with US official, Washington, May 2015.
75.Austin Wright and Philip Ewing, ‘Carter’s unwelcome news: only 60 Syrian rebels fit for training’, Politico 7/7/15, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/ash-carter-syrian-rebel-training-119812 [accessed 23/11/15].
76.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 322–338.
77.Ibid., p. 382.
78.Frederic Hof, Bassma Kodmani and Jeffery White, ‘Setting the stage for peace in Syria: the case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force’, Atlantic Council, 14/4/15.
79.Fred Lawson, ‘Implications of the 2011–13 Syrian uprising for the Middle Eastern Regional Security Complex’, Georgetown Papers, 2014.
80.Thomas McGee ‘Mapping action and identity in the Kobani crisis response’, Kurdish Studies Journal, 4.1 (2016): 51–77.
81.Interview with US official, Washington, May 2015.
82.Aron Lund, ‘The ten most important developments in Syria in 2015’, Syria Comment 3/1/16, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/ten-most-important-developments-syria-2015/ [accessed 12/3/16].
Chapter 10: Enter Russia: Putin raises the stakes
1.‘Vladimir Putin: supporting Syrian regime only way to end war’, Telegraph 25/9/16.
2.‘BBC inside airbase where Russia carries out Syria airstrikes’, BBC 11/11/15, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34790153 [accessed 20/1/16]; ‘Russia ‘plans forward air operating base in Syria – US’ BBC 14/9/15, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34252810 [accessed 10/3/16].
3.Ed Payne, Barbara Starr and Susannah Cullinane, ‘Russia launches first airstrikes in Syria’, CNN 1/10/15, http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html [accessed 10/3/16].
4.‘Inside Russian airbase launching Syria strikes’, BBC 20/1/16, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35365747 [accessed 10/2/16].
5.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 338.
6.Ibid., pp. 339–342.
7.Ibid., p. 349.
8.Ibid., p. 344.
9.Aron Lund, ‘The death of Rustum Ghazaleh’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=59953 [accessed 10/3/16].
10.New Approach in Southern Syria, International Crisis Group Middle East Report no. 163, 2 September 2015, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/163-new-approach-in-southern-syria.pdf [accessed 15/3/16].
11.Ibid.
12.Haid Haid, ‘The Southern Front: allies without a strategy’, Heinrich Böll Stiftung, 21/8/15, http://lb.boell.org/en/2015/08/21/southern-front-allies-without-strategy [accessed 10/3/16].
13.Aron Lund, ‘The ten most important developments in Syria in 2015’, Syria Comment 3/1/16, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/ten-most-important-developments-syria-2015/ [accessed 12/3/16].
14.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 360–363.
15.Robert S. Ford and Ali El Yassir, ‘Yes, talk with Syria’s Ahrar al-Sham’, Middle East Institute 15/7/15, http://www.mei.edu/content/at/yes-talk-syria%E2%80%99s-ahrar-al-sham [accessed 10/2/16].
16.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 343; Fabrice Balanche, ‘How to prevent al-Qaeda from Seizing a Safe Zone in Northwestern Syria’, The Washington Institute 7/3/16, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-prevent-al-qaeda-from-seizing-a-safe-zone-in-northwestern-syria#.Vt4AZPz_zRA.twitter [accessed 15/3/16]
17.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 372; Josh Rogin, ‘U.S. shoots down idea of Syria Safe Zone’, Bloomberg View 28/7/15, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015–07–28/u-s-shoots-down-idea-of-syria-safe-zone [accessed 10/3/16].
18.‘Assad admits “setbacks” in war against Syrian rebels’, al-Jazeera, 6/5/15, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/05/150506185408811.html [accessed 10/2/16].
19.Maher Samaan and Anne Barnard, ‘Assad, in rare admission, says Syria’s army lacks manpower’, New York Times 26/7/15.
20.Laila Bassam and Tom Perry, ‘How Iranian general plotted out Syrian assault in Moscow’, Reuters 6/10/15, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-soleimani-insigh-idUSKCN0S02BV20151006 [accessed 11/2/16].
21.‘Russo-Syrian agreement allows permanent stationing of Russian airbase on Syrian soil’, Info News 14/1/16, http://info-news.eu/russo-syrian-agreement-allows-permanent-stationing-of-russian-air-base-on-syrian-soil/ [accessed 10/3/16].
22.Lizzie Dearden, ‘Russia joins fight against Isis: parliament approves Vladimir Putin’s request for military intervention’, Independent, 30/9/15. parliament-approves-vladimir-putins-request-for-military-a6673091.html [accessed 15/3/16]
23.Kathrin Hille, Geoff Dyer, Demetri Sevastopulo and Erika Solomon, ‘Russian air strikes on Syrian targets raise “grave concerns” in US’, Financial Times 30/9/15.
24.Roland Oliphant, Harriet Alexander and David Blair, ‘Russian general tells US diplomats: “We launch Syria air strikes in one hour. Stay out of the way”’, Telegraph 30/9/15
25.Chris Kozak, ‘Regime and Iranian forces launch multip offensive in Aleppo’, Institute for the Study of War, 22/10/15 http://understandingwar.org/map/regime-and-iranian-forces-launch-multi-pronged-offensive-aleppo#sthash.p4mP44mf.dpuf [accessed 11/3/16].
26.Lund, ‘The ten most important developments’, Syria Comment.
27.Hossein Bastani, ‘Iran quietly deepens involvement in Syria’s war’, BBC 20/10/15, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34572756 [accessed 11/3/16].
28.‘Russia delivers humanitarian aid to Syria’, RT 24/2/16, https://www.rt.com/in-motion/333520-russia-syria-humanitarian-aid/ [accessed 10/3/16].
29.Aron Lund, ‘After Palmyra, where next for Assad?’ Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 31/3/16, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=63201 [accessed 1/4/16].
30.Genevieve Casagrande, Christopher Kozak and Jennifer Cafarella, ‘Syria 90 day forecast: the Assad regime and Allies in northern Syria’, Institute for the Study of War 24/2/16, http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Syria%2090%20Day%20Forecast%2024%20FEB%202016(1).pdf [accessed 11/3/16].
31.Ibid.
32.Dimitri Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit aims at something bigger than Syria’, The Tablet 13/10/15, http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/194109/putin-syria-trenin [accessed 24/2/16].
33.Fred Weir, ‘In Georgia, Russia saw its army’s shortcomings’, Christian Science Monitor 10/10/08, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2008/1010/p01s01-woeu.html [accessed 10/2/16].
34.Lister, The Syrian Jihad, pp. 3 and 75; Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit’, The Tablet.
35.Ibid.
36.Hazel Torres, ‘Russian Orthodox Church supports Putin’s “holy war” in Syria to protect Christians’, Christian Today 2/10/15,http://www.christiantoday.com/article/russian.orthodox.church.supports.putins.holy.war.in.syria.to.protect.christians/66312.htm [accessed 10/2/16].
37.Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit’, The Tablet; Ray Nothstine, ‘Syrian President Assad: Putin is the only world leader protecting Christians’, Christian Post 20/11/15, http://www.christianpost.com/news/syria-assad-putin-only-world-leader-protecting-christians-150472/ [accessed 10/2/16].
38.Peter Hobson, ‘Calculating the cost of Russia’s war in Syria’, Moscow Times 20/10/15, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/calculating-the-cost-of-russias-war-in-syria/540015.html [accessed 10/3/16].
39.Ibid.
40.Alec Luhn, ‘Russia’s campaign in Syria leads to arms sale windfall’, Guardian 29/3/16.
41.James O’Toole, ‘Billions at stake as Russia backs Syria’, CNN, 10/2/12, http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/09/news/international/russia_syria/ [accessed 10/3/16].
42.Peter Beaumont, ‘Netanyahu meets Putin to discuss concerns over Russian activity in Syria’, Guardian 21/9/15.
43.Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit’, The Tablet.
44.Dmitri Trenin, ‘Turkish-Russian war of words goes beyond downed plane’, al-Jazeera America 9/12/15, http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/9/turkey-russian-relationship-felled-by-more-than-a-downed-jet.html [accessed 10/3/16].
45.Selin Girit, ‘Turkey faces big losses as Russia sanctions bite’, BBC 2/1/16, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35209987 [accessed 10/3/16].
46.Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit’, The Tablet.
47.Noah Bonsey, ‘More Chechnya, less Afghanistan’, Foreign Policy, 12/10/15.
48.Trenin, ‘Putin’s Syria gambit’, The Tablet.
49.Ibid.
50.‘Europe: Syrian asylum applications’, UNHCR Syrian Regional Refugees Response http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/asylum.php [accessed 15/12/15].
51.‘Engaging with Assad a “lesser evil”, Spain says after Paris attacks’, Daily Star 18/11/15.
52.Laura Rozen, ‘On eve of Syria peace talks, Saudi Arabia questions Russian, Iranian intentions’, Al-Monitor 28/10/15, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/us-welcome-iran-syria-peace-talks.html# [accessed 12/3/16].
53.Louisa Loveluck, ‘Assad can stay in power “three months or longer”, says Hammond’, Telegraph 4/10/15.
54.Matthew Lee and Bradley Klapper, ‘Assad can stay, for now: Kerry accepts Russian stance’, Associated Press 15/12/15, http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-moscow-talks-syria-ukraine-081842398.html [accessed 10/2/16].
55.‘Final declaration on the results of the Syria talks in Vienna as agreed by participants’, European Union External Action 30/10/15, http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2015/151030_06.htm [accessed 10/2/16].
56.‘Statement of the International Syria Support Group’, US Department of State 14/11/15, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/11/249511.htm [accessed 10/3/16].
57.Aron Lund, ‘Syria’s opposition conferences: results and expectations’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 11/12/15,http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62263 [accessed 10/3/16].
58.Aaron Stein, ‘Turkey’s two-front war’, The American Interest 4/2/16, http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/02/04/turkeys-two-front-war/ [accessed 10/3/16].
59.Aron Lund, ‘Syria’s Kurds at the center of America’s anti-Jihadi strategy’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2/12/15, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62158 [accessed 10/3/16].
60.Lund, ‘Syria’s opposition conferences’.
61.Aron Lund, ‘The road to Geneva: the who, when, and how of Syria’s peace talks’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 29/1/16, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62631 [accessed 10/3/16].
62.Ibid.
63.‘Syria conflict: UN suspends peace talks in Geneva’, BBC 3/2/16, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35488073 [accessed 10/3/16].
64.Tim Walker, ‘Syria civil war: staff manning US ceasefire hotline “can’t speak Arabic”’, Independent 3/3/16
65.‘Syria war: John Kerry says violence drastically reduced’, al-Jazeera 12/3/16, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/syria-war-john-kerry-violence-drastically-reduced-160312082042884.html [accessed 10/3/16].
66.‘Civilian deaths drop to four-year low after Syria truce: monitor’, AFP 27/3/16, http://news.yahoo.com/civilian-deaths-drop-four-low-syria-truce-monitor-182900708.html [accessed 29/3/16].
67.Thanassis Cambanis, ‘The Syrian revolution against al Qaeda’, Foreign Policy 29/3/16 http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/29/the-syrian-revolution-against-al-qaeda-jabhat-al-nusra-fsa/ [accessed 31/3/16].
68.‘Syria war: John Kerry says violence drastically reduced’, al-Jazeera.
69.‘Putin discusses Syria ceasefire with world leaders by phone’, RT 24/2/16,https://www.rt.com/news/333481-putin-assad-syria-ceasefire/ [accessed 10/3/16].
70.‘Putin orders start of Russian military withdrawal from Syria, says “objectives achieved”’, RT 14/3/16, https://www.rt.com/news/335554-putin-orders-syria-withdrawal/ [accessed 31/3/16].
71.Aron Lund, ‘Interpreting the Russian withdrawal from Syria’, Syria in Crisis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=63042 [accessed 25/3/16].
Conclusion: The war that everyone lost
1.Interview with Lahkdar Brahimi, Paris, 31/8/15.
2.‘Banners’ (31/1/15) Occupied Liberated Kafranbel, http://www.occupiedkafranbel.com/banners [accessed 15/12/15].
3.Ibid. (16/12/11) and (15/3/14).
4.Raed Fares, ‘Why is Russia bombing my town?’ Washington Post 6/11/15.
5.Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, ‘Transnational dimensions of civil war’, Journal of Peace Research 44.3 (2007), 293–309.
