ONE
Unfinished War
To our front, black smoke streamed from burning T72 tanks. Secondary explosions from fuel and ammunition ripped apart what remained of the burning hulks and the defensive positions to our front.
“Why are you stopping?” asked the Republican Guard commander who had survived our assault and was now a prisoner of war in the hands of the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment.
“Why do you not go to Baghdad? You have the power. Your army rules the heavens and the earth. Do you think we love Saddam? Saddam killed our best generals. He kills everyone.” In a voice filled with more anguish and frustration than fear, my new Iraqi prisoner of war looked me straight in the eye and said in heavily accented English, “Major, you must go to Baghdad and end this. You must save Iraq. ...”
But I knew there was no appetite at regiment or corps to do any such thing. From the time we crossed into Iraq, the generals saw only danger, never opportunity. I said the only thing to the Republican Guard officer that I could think of: “We are ordered to halt. I have orders. I cannot advance. That’s the way it is.”
... Along the 73 Easting in the Iraqi desert 2200 hours, 26 February 1991
A jolt of clear-air turbulence shook my seat in the jet aircraft and refocused my eyes on the 2nd Cavalry regimental coin I held in my hand. The coin had taken me back to the fighting in February 1991 almost from the moment the jet left the gate at Reagan National Airport.
Every major unit in the Army has its own distinctive coin, an item its members are supposed to keep on them for good luck. If they are “challenged” by another soldier from the unit and don’t have it with them, they end up buying drinks for everybody. But for me, the 2nd Cavalry coin is about more than drinks and better times. The green and gold regimental crest, emblazoned with the fleur-de-lis, symbolizes much more than a readiness to fight. It represents courage and character under fire, the essence of professional soldiering.
However, on 17 January 2002, I was carrying much more than just the 2nd Cavalry coin. I knew I was about to be challenged for stakes much higher than drinks. Now, on the final approach to Tampa–St. Petersburg Airport, the mild turbulence prompted me to put the coin away and focus on the meeting at U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), a meeting I had traveled from Washington, D.C., to attend.
Captain Melissa Wilson, a smart, attractive woman from CENTCOM’s public affairs office, met me at the gate. She was assigned to escort me to CENTCOM headquarters. If Florida’s intoxicating warm air and sunshine tempted me to forget this trip was official business, her presence was enough to gently remind me this trip was no vacation.
Actually, the trip to CENTCOM had begun much earlier, on a chilly Saturday morning in December 2001 when I met with Newt Gingrich, at a place not far from my home in McLean, Virginia. Gingrich, who was acting as a behind-the-scenes advisor to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, had read my 1997 book, Breaking the Phalanx, a book that set forth the vision for a new, reorganized, and reformed twenty-first-century Army. After a few minor pleasantries and some exceptionally good coffee, Gingrich had come straight to the point.
“In the last thirty to forty days, Secretary Rumsfeld asked GEN Eric Shinseki—the Army chief of staff—and the Joint Staff for their assessment of what force levels would be needed to invade Iraq and defeat the Iraqi army.”
Gingrich then paused to sip his coffee before ending his statement with, “You should know the Army chief of staff told the secretary that such an operation would require more than 550,000 troops.”
I smiled a little. There weren’t that many troops in the entire active-duty Army! So much for the decade-long fiction of the near-simultaneous, twomajor-regional-contingencies strategy maintained by every Army chief of staff since 1991, I thought.
Newt Gingrich sipped his coffee and continued.
“Based on your combat experience during the first Gulf War, what do you think? How many troops do we need to reach Baghdad and eliminate the regime? And how long do you think such an operation would take?”
So the decision was made. We would go back to Iraq, ostensibly to finish what we had begun in 1991. I was amazed. Only 120 days had elapsed since the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington.
Knowing the widespread opposition among the senior Army generals, both active and retired, to any plan for military intervention in Iraq, I saw that the Army’s numbers were obviously inflated with the hope of raising the cost of the operation so high that the Bush administration would drop the idea immediately. This approach had been tried in 1991, but President George H. W. Bush had complied with all of General Schwarzkopf’s troop requests, making it impossible for the Army generals to duck the fight.
Conditions were different now. In the air and at sea, our capacity to strike quickly and effectively against concentrations of enemy ground forces in open terrain had dramatically improved, but in the intervening years since 1991 the Army had become a smaller replica of the one that fought in 1991. Thanks to cuts implemented by the Army’s four-star generals in 1998, our combat battalions contained 25 percent fewer combat troops and armored fighting vehicles in 2001 than they had in 1991.
But I knew the quality of American combat troops, Army and Marine. They were excellent, and I knew from personal experience how incapable the Iraqi army had been in 1991. There was no reason to believe that the sanctions imposed on Iraq since 1991 had made Iraq’s already weak army any better.
I was, therefore, confident in responding to the question with a very different answer and a radically different plan of attack.
“Sir, given the impact of sanctions on an already incompetent Iraqi force, I suspect that with the right organization and mix of equipment, a surprise assault from a cold start by fifty thousand armored combat troops, with the potential for rapid reinforcement with additional soldiers and Marines to restore order, could do the job of eliminating Saddam Hussein’s regime in a week to ten days.”
Gingrich did not balk at my response. He explained that Rumsfeld was not unaware that the Army four-star generals inevitably choose men with the same attitudes as themselves—men with whom they were personally comfortable—to fill important command and staff posts, as well as to succeed them in authority when they retired. This condition, Gingrich noted, was particularly true of the officers that populated the Army chief of staff’s inner circle advising him.
The upshot of the discussion was that three weeks later I provided the secretary of defense with a briefing that emphasized the importance of a ground force organized for velocity. The force I outlined was composed primarily of mobile, armored troops tightly integrated with airpower, designed to go fast as hell, brush aside opposition, defeat any counterattack, and remove Saddam from power in Baghdad. On reaching Baghdad, the plan called for 15,000 light infantry to fly into Baghdad’s international airport to reinforce and restore civil order in the aftermath of Baghdad’s fall until Iraqi troops replaced them.
Occupation was never mentioned. I was never asked to plan or even contemplate the long-term occupation of Iraq. My task was to develop a concept for the rapid takedown of Iraq’s government by removing Saddam Hussein in his capital through an in-and-out expeditionary approach. Reorganizing the entire Middle East by imposing American democracy through the use of force, as the neocons eventually wanted, was not my task.
Rumsfeld liked the presentation. He sent the presentation and me to U.S. Central Command, where the members of the inner staff of the commander, Gen. “Tommy” Franks, viewed the briefing with considerable apprehension—and me with suspicion. CENTCOM was settled into a comfortable routine of managing operations in Afghanistan. War in Iraq, whatever the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) may have been, was the last thing anyone at CENTCOM wanted to think about.
Within an hour of my arrival in Tampa, I was hurried out of the airport and taken to MacDill Air Force Base and CENTCOM headquarters. A few minutes later, Captain Wilson presented me to Col. Mike Hayes, Chief of Strategic Planning and close confidante of General Franks.
Mike was very helpful. He explained that Secretary Rumsfeld had directed General Franks to bring me to Tampa for general discussions concerning future operations in Iraq. Mike finished up with a mild warning not to be surprised by the CENTCOM commander’s liberal use of profanity.
The next day, I met with General Franks. His office was what you would expect a four-star general’s headquarters to be—plush and beautifully decorated, but comfortable nonetheless.
The tall, lanky General Franks was cordial. Despite his years of service in an Army with an institutional culture that equates general-officer rank with intelligence and wisdom, Franks managed to conceal skillfully any contempt he felt about Rumsfeld’s sending an out-of-favor Army colonel, long ago identified as an “outcast” by the active and retired Army three and four stars, to propose a new concept of operation. Franks conducted himself as a gentleman throughout the meeting, which, although originally scheduled for forty-five minutes, lasted an hour and a half.1
Joining Franks for the meeting were the CENTCOM deputy commander, the J-2 (that is, the deputy chief of staff for Intelligence), two or three other senior officers, Colonel Hayes, and Franks’ executive officer, a Navy commander.
After brief introductions, the meeting opened with a twelve-minute monologue by General Franks during which he assessed the state of affairs in Iraq. His comments were laced with quite a bit of profanity and were difficult to follow. When General Franks finished his remarks, he asked for my opinion.
In roughly seven minutes, I outlined the following points. First, whatever we undertook, it would have to involve actions the Iraqi opponent did not expect or anticipate. Second, a robust, tracked, armored, and highly trained force should strike directly at Baghdad, avoiding contact with the Iraqi army as much as possible, to induce an early and complete collapse of the regime. By avoiding contact with the Iraqi army in the south, I argued, we would preserve as much of the army as possible for use in the postconflict stability phase.
Third, surprise depended on a skillful manipulation of both American and Southwest Asian (SWA) perceptions. Although I argued against a bombing campaign, I made the point that U.S. ground forces would have to be tightly integrated with air forces. This arrangement would allow us to attack from a “cold start.”
General Franks listened patiently and said the following in his colorful, heavy southern drawl: “Attack from a cold or standing start, I agree. Small and fast, I agree. Straight at Baghdad, I agree. Simultaneity or sequentially, simultaneous is probably better, I am not sure yet.”
Franks then mused for another ten to fifteen minutes about what he called a “generated start” along with a series of political-military considerations and comments about carrier battle groups and air forces. He then returned to the subject and said: “What size force are you suggesting?”
“Initially,” I answered, “no larger than 35,000 to 40,000 ground troops, primarily armored combat troops, with rapid reinforcement during the advance and subsequent immediate occupation of Baghdad by 15,000 light infantrymen.”
“You mean about two divisions,” asked Franks. “No, sir,” I replied, “I meant four or five five-to-six-thousand-man armored battle groups on at least two axes.” Armored forces could ignore most of the minor skirmishes that would consume light infantry units dependent on airpower and artillery for survival. The collateral damage would then also be minimized.
The 15,000 infantrymen would be prepositioned in Oman, with a cover story that they were training for employment in the horn of Africa. When Baghdad fell and the airport was ours, they would fly into Baghdad. Backed by armored firepower, they would secure the peace by restoring calm and public order in the capital city until Iraqi soldiers could replace them.
This plan was consistent with the idea of thoroughly controlling Baghdad while leaving the rest of the country under the control of Iraqi army units that cooperated with us until we could turn over Baghdad too. No one at CENTCOM suggested that American soldiers and Marines should occupy and control Iraq.
Based on my experience in 1991, I was sure that if left out of the fight, the Iraqi army and its officers would be useful in restoring order to the country under the direction of a new government. In the concept plan prepared for Rumsfeld I argued that, if possible, Iraqi military units should be integrated into our advance on Baghdad, ensuring that we arrived with Iraqi army troops capable of policing the capital with us. Sympathetic Iraqi army units also offered us the best chance for discovering and securing WMD sites, along with Baathist police and intelligence centers.
Flooding Iraq’s villages, towns, and cities with American soldiers and Marines was a prescription for serious anti-American violence, and I strongly opposed the idea. The Arabs would regard such an intrusive presence as public humiliation, not as liberation.
On the whole, General Franks reacted more positively to my proposal than I expected, although I was unsure at the time whether this was just a performance designed to mollify Secretary Rumsfeld. Since I was nobody’s “boy,” in the sense that I had no four-star sponsor pushing me, I fully expected to be curtly dismissed and guided out of Franks’ office. Instead, Franks talked for some time. Then, once he had made it clear that he was finished expressing his views, he invited the other attendees to give their opinions.
Franks’ deputy commander, Gen. Michael “Rifle” Delong, was the first to speak. He started by raising questions based on the threat from chemical, nuclear, or biological weapons, referred to simply as “WMD.”
DeLong seemed to favor a long air bombardment campaign and a larger buildup on the ground over time, which, in my view, would make the use of WMD much more likely.
I listened politely to his views and then told him that the alternative to a long buildup, a lengthy air campaign, and a ponderous, linear assault on the Desert Storm model was a swift strike at the jugular to collapse organized resistance—a strike that moved faster than the enemy could react. The importance of minimizing strikes from the air against a country that was already exhausted from years of sanctions and whose civil populations needed the water, power, and sanitation infrastructure intact was beyond the generals’ comprehension. The very notion that we should focus our attack away from the Iraqi army, which I was convinced would not fight much—if at all—was ignored.
But the discussion continued. The deputy commander was not satisfied with my responses.
It was now the J-2’s turn to question me.
The deputy chief of staff for Intelligence began by criticizing my concept of operation on the ground that the time frame equated to the period when Iraq’s ground forces achieved their highest state of training readiness. To me this comment was ludicrous; frankly, I did not think that the Republican Guard could stop a toilet from overflowing. But I kept my cool.
Franks interrupted and asked me about the quality of the Iraqi enemy.
I told him that surely, as former assistant division commander of the 1st Cavalry Division, he too recognized that our soldiers and their armor were vastly superior to anything the Iraqis could put into the field against us.
General Franks was trapped. He found it impossible to disagree with this assertion.
When the meeting finally ended, I was led out of Franks’ office into another room, where the discussion continued with the J-2, an Army brigadier general, who—like, unfortunately, most of the officers I talked to—had little or no personal experience of direct-fire combat in Iraq or anywhere else.
When I was asked what we would do in the event that the Iraqi armored formations inside Basra decided to come out of the city and attack near An Nasiryah, I replied, “Great! This will give our air forces something to do. They will annihilate them in minutes.”
My confident reply did not impress the J-2. He strongly objected to my faith in the effectiveness of American airpower as a tool to deal decisively with threats to our flanks or rear, claiming that I overestimated airpower’s effect and the willingness of the U.S. Air Force to cooperate with the Army.
Interservice squabbling seemed to be as alive and well as ever. All too many of those in high command seemed to be permanently afflicted with a high-school mentality.
Though I tried to listen attentively to the general, his lecture grew tiresome and my mind wandered. I had heard these views before—how my ideas and concepts of operation were too risky, why if we did what I proposed our open flanks would crack under Iraqi counterattack, why weeks of bombing and hundreds of thousands of American soldiers would be required to defeat the pathetic Iraqi army. I remembered how the Army generals of 1991 had initiated potentially brilliant maneuvers only to abort them and squander victory because they lacked the will to see them through to completion.
The general sitting in front of me could just as easily have been a general from 1991—nothing had changed in the Army generals’ thinking about war. And why should it? The generals select their friends to succeed them. Thus, it was no surprise that the views of this man were the same as those I heard ten years earlier. We obviously had learned nothing about Arabs or Iraq during the twelve years since the first Gulf War. Still, I was truly shocked when I learned later that General Franks expected that a ground offensive to take Baghdad might last as long as three months—I could not imagine any Iraqi force resisting a determined ground attack by American armored forces for more than a few minutes.2
The Army generals who had seen disaster waiting for them on the other side of every sand dune in 1991 had cloned themselves, producing a new generation of risk-averse, uninspired, uniformed bureaucrats who pretended to be bold leaders but actually were troubled with doubt and fear.
The one glaring difference was that most of the Army generals sitting at CENTCOM and Third Army headquarters had no personal experience of direct-fire combat against the Iraqi military or, in most cases, against anyone who knew what “right looks like.” The names and faces of the generals who would eventually lead Army forces into Iraq for a second time were well known to me. Like their four-star mentors, they were only as good as the canned tactical methods they knew from the training centers and simulations. None of them were inclined to ask what else might work.
Fearing that President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld would do what Lyndon Johnson and Robert McNamara had done and go to war with the generals they had found on taking office I was overcome by the premonition that whatever plan the generals followed, the outcome would be disastrous. The generals I knew did not know enough about Iraq or its people, and like their mentors in 1991, they were filled with fear of fighting a robust Iraqi army that simply did not exist. They were not the generals we needed. We did not need generals sitting in front of a TV screen watching icons and video feeds while our soldiers fought it out on the ground with an enemy who did not conform to the generals’ plans. Iraq, I feared, would prove to be a nightmare.
I grew weary of the discussion.
Time was suspended while a kind of monumental inner silence filled me. I no longer wanted to listen to the generals’ endless list of fears and concerns. I wanted to go back in time to a different place. I wanted to be with soldiers who did not take counsel of their fears—soldiers I admired and loved—soldiers who advanced under fire without hesitation, following officers who understood combat leadership from the front, the meaning of mobility and firepower, who were always ready to issue concise, relevant “orders from the saddle.”
In the deep recesses of memory, I could still see these men behind me in long columns of armor, submerged in a swirling sea of sand, wind, and black rain. Drifting away from the confines of CENTCOM headquarters, my mind echoed with the noise of tanks grinding against the desert floor of southern Iraq.
After all, I had fought in Iraq once before.