INDEX

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

A

• Aadhaar, 126

• academia, 128

• accessibility of new technology

  • AI, 69

  • decentralization and, 198

  • dematerialization and, 190

  • genetic engineering, 82–83

  • military applications and, 106, 126

  • power and, 163–64, 198, 199

• Acemoglu, Daron, 179, 276, 278

• Acheson-Lilienthal Report, 42

• additive manufacturing. See 3-D printing

• Aerorozvidka, 103–4

• agriculture

  • challenges of, 136–37

  • climate change and, 138

  • as general-purpose technology, 27

  • profit motive and, 133

  • robotics and, 93–94

  • as technology wave, 28

• AI Act (EU), 229, 260

• AI Incidents Database, 246

• air gaps, 241

• airlines, 267–68

• AlexNet, 58–59

• algorithms, 63, 114, 247

• Alibaba, 66

• Allison, Graham, 123

• Alphabet, 128, 256, 257

• AlphaFold, 89–90, 109

• AlphaGo, 53–54, 113, 117–19, 120

• AlphaZero, 54

• alternatives, 234

• Altos Labs, 85

• Amazon, 94–95, 189

• Anduril, 166

• anthrax, 174

• anti-aging technologies. See longevity technologies

• antibiotics, 36

• Apple, 187, 189

• Arkhipov, Vasili, 44

• arms race rhetoric, 124–25, 126–27

• Arnold, Frances, 87

• Arthur, W. Brian, 56

• artificial capable intelligence (ACI), vii, 77–78, 115, 164, 210

• artificial general intelligence (AGI)

  • catastrophe scenarios and, 209, 210

  • chatbots and, 114

  • DeepMind founding and, 8

  • defined, vii, 51

  • gorilla problem and, 115–16

• gradual nature of, 75

• superintelligence and, 75, 77, 78, 115

• yet to come, 73–74

• artificial intelligence (AI)

  • aspirations for, 7–8

  • autonomy and, 114, 115

  • as basis of coming wave, 55

  • benefits of, 10–11

  • catastrophe scenarios and, 208, 209–11

  • chatbots, 64, 68, 70, 113–14

  • Chinese development of, 120–21

  • choke points in, 251

  • climate change and, 139

  • consciousness and, 74, 75

  • contradictions and, 202

  • costs of, 64, 68

  • current applications, 61–62

  • current capabilities of, 8–9

  • cyberattacks and, 162–63, 166–67

  • defined, vii

  • early experiments in, 51–54

  • efficiency of, 68–69

  • ego and, 140

  • ethics and, 254

  • explanation and, 243

  • future of, 78

  • future ubiquity of, 284–85

  • global reach of, 9–10

  • hallucination problem and, 243

  • human brain as fixed target, 67–68

  • hyper-evolution and, 109

  • invisibility of, 73

  • limitations of, 73

  • medical applications, 110

  • military applications, 104, 165

  • Modern Turing Test, 76–77, 78, 115, 190, 210

  • narrow nature of, 73–74

  • near-term capabilities, 77

  • omni-use technology and, 111, 130

  • openness imperative and, 128–29

  • potential of, 56, 70, 135

  • as priority, 60

  • profit motive and, 134, 135, 136

  • proliferation of, 68–69

  • protein structure and, 88–89

  • red teaming and, 246

  • regulation attempts, 229, 260–61

  • research unpredictability and, 130

  • robotics and, 95, 96, 98

  • safety and, 241, 243–44

  • scaling hypothesis, 67–68, 74

  • self-critical culture and, 270

  • sentience claims, 72, 75

  • skepticism about, 72, 179

  • surveillance and, 193–94, 195, 196

  • synthetic biology and, 89–90, 109

  • technological unemployment and, 177–81

  • Turing test, 75

  • See also coming wave; deep learning; machine learning

• arXiv, 129

• Asilomar principles, 269–70, 272–73

• ASML, 251

• asymmetrical impact, 105–7, 234

• Atlantis, 5

• Atmanirbhar Bharat program (India), 125–26

• attention, 63

• attention maps, 63

• audits, 245–48, 267

• Aum Shinrikyo, 212–13, 214

• authoritarianism, 153, 158–59, 191–96, 216–17

• autocomplete, 63

• automated drug discovery, 110

• automation, 177–81

• autonomy, 105, 113–15, 166, 234

• Autor, David, 179

• al-Awlaki, Anwar, 171

B

• backpropagation, 59

• bad actor empowerment, 165–66, 208, 266

  • See also terrorism

• B corps, 258

• Bell, Alexander Graham, 31

• Benz, Carl, 24, 285

• Berg, Paul, 269–70

• BGI Group, 122

• bias, 69–70, 239–40

• Bioforge, 86

• Biological Weapons Convention, 241, 263

• biotech. See synthetic biology

• Black Death, 205

• Bletchley Park, 32

• books, 30

• Boyer, Herbert W., 80

• Breakout, 51–52, 113

• Brin, Sergey, 53

• British East India Company, 186, 189

• Brown, David, 98

• Brown, Wendy, 185

C

• “Can We Survive Technology” (Neumann), 221

• capital expenditure, 134

• Carey, Nessa, 82

• Carlson curve, 81

• cars. See vehicles

• Cartwright, Edmund, 282

• Cas9, 81

• catastrophe, 205–14

  • containment and, 211–12, 214

  • scenarios for, 207–9

  • skepticism about, 206–7

  • stagnation as, 217–21

  • surveillance dystopia as, 215–17

• Caulobacter ethensis-2.0, 84

• Cello, 109

• CFCs, 45, 46, 263

• Charles Martel, 183–84

• Charpentier, Emmanuelle, 81, 265

• chatbots, 64, 68, 70, 113–14

• ChatGPT, 62, 65

• chemical weapons, 46, 110

• chemistry, 98–99

• Chernobyl, 45

• chess, 53

• China

  • geopolitics and, 120–24

  • historical containment attempts by, 39–40

  • international cooperation and, 265–66

  • Maoism, 192

  • regulation and, 231

  • silk and, 41

  • surveillance, 193–95

  • U.S. export controls and, 249–50

• Chinchilla, 68

• chips

  • choke points and, 249–51

  • hyper-evolution and, 32–33, 57, 81, 108

  • size of, 67

  • See also semiconductors

• chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 35

• CICERO, 167

• climate change

  • containment attempts, 45, 46, 263

  • as global challenge, 137–39

• popular understanding of, 236

• unintended consequences of technology and, 35

• clocks, 157

• cloud computing, 251

• CloudWalk, 194

• Cohen, Stanley N., 80

• Cold War

  • containment and, 37

  • international cooperation and, 263, 264

  • nuclear weapons and, 42

  • Sputnik and, 119–20, 126

• coming wave

  • AI on, 3–4

  • AI-synthetic biology interactivity and, 88–91

  • autonomy and, 105, 113–15

  • avoidance of, 12–14

  • benefits of, 10, 11, 16, 283

  • defined, vii, 7

  • ego as driver of, 139–41

  • global challenges and, 137–40

  • idealism and, 150–51

  • inevitability of, 142–43, 214, 225

  • interrelated nature of, 56–57

  • popular understanding of, 234–36

  • possible responses, 11

  • power and, 102, 163–64

  • profit motive and, 131–36

  • research unpredictability and, 129–30

  • skepticism about, 57–58, 72, 102, 179, 206–7

  • technology penumbra of, 92–93

  • See also accessibility of new technology; coming wave incentives; omni-use technology

• coming wave incentives, 119, 141

  • containment and, 250

  • geopolitics, 119–27

  • global challenges, 137–40, 219

  • openness imperative, 127–29

  • profit motive, 131–36, 254–58

  • regulation and, 231–32

• coming wave technology characteristics

  • asymmetrical impact, 105–7, 234

  • autonomy, 105, 113–15, 166, 234

  • containment and, 234–35

  • See also hyper-evolution; omni-use technology

• computer vision, 58–60

• computing, 32–34

  • dematerialization and, 55, 190

  • hyper-evolution of, 108

  • manufacturing processes and, 84

  • quantum computing, 97–99, 109, 114, 122

  • U.S. export controls and, 249–50

• Consortium, 84

• containment

  • audits and, 245–48, 267

  • beginnings of, 272–73

  • catastrophe and, 211–12, 214

  • choke points and, 249–51

  • coherence and, 275

  • critics and, 252–54

  • defined, vii, 37–38

  • elements of, 232–33

  • gorilla problem and, 115–16

  • government roles, 258–63

  • historical attempts, 38–41, 42–43, 119

  • Industrial Revolution and, 39, 40, 281–82

  • integrated approach to, 228–29

  • international cooperation and, 263–67

  • makers’ responsibility for, 252

  • as narrow corridor, 276–78

  • need for, 16, 18–19, 46, 48, 285–86

  • off switches and, 244–45

  • omni-use technology and, 111

  • organizational limitations and, 228

  • overview, 274–75

  • pathogens and, 273–74

  • popular movements and, 271–72

  • possibility of, 278–79

  • profit motive and, 254–58

  • quantum computing and, 98

  • risks in, 43–45

  • safety and, 239–43

  • self-critical culture and, 267–70

  • stagnation as method for, 217–21

  • surveillance as method for, 206, 215–17

  • technology characteristics and, 233–35

  • See also regulation as method for containment

• containment problem, vii

  • See also containment

• Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, 263

• Copilot, 69

• corporations

  • British East India Company, 186, 189

  • concentrated power and, 187–88, 190–91

  • containment and, 255, 258

  • dematerialization and, 189–90

  • intelligence and, 186–87

  • public benefit, 258

  • role in coming wave, 134–35

  • taxation and, 262

• Cortical Labs, 91

• costs. See technology cost decreases

• COVID-19 pandemic

  • disinformation/misinformation and, 172

  • gain-of-function (GOF) research and, 176

  • organizational limitations and, 228

  • surveillance and, 194, 195, 215

• Craspase, 82

• Crick, Francis, 80

• CRISPR gene editing, 81–82, 86, 129–30

• critic AIs, 244

• Critical Assessment for Structure Prediction (CASP), 89, 90

• Cronin, Audrey Kurth, 106, 127

• crossbow, 39, 40

• cryptography, 98, 244, 248, 266

• Cuban missile crisis, 44

• Cugnot, Nicolas-Joseph, 23

• cults, 212–13

• culture, 267–70

• cyberattacks, 160–63, 166–67

D

• Daimler, Gottlieb, 24

• data, proliferation of, 33

• decentralization, 198–99

• Deep Blue, 53

• deepfakes, 169–71, 172

• deep learning

  • autonomy and, 113

  • computer vision and, 58–60

  • limitations of, 73

  • potential of, 61–62

  • protein structure and, 89–90

  • supervised, 65

  • synthetic biology and, 90–91

  • See also machine learning

• DeepMind

  • AGI as goal of, 8, 51

  • arms race rhetoric and, 124

  • choke points and, 251

  • containment and, 254, 255–56

  • DQN algorithm, 51–52, 113

• efficiency and, 68

• founding of, 8, 9

• Google purchase of, 60, 255–57

• openness imperative and, 128

• practical applications and, 61

• protein structure and, 89–90

• See also AlphaGo

• Deere, John, 93

• Delta, 104

• demand, 25, 30, 31, 40, 41, 132–33

• dematerialization, 55–56, 189–90, 233

• demographic crisis, 219–20

• diffusion, 30–31

• dilemma, the, defined, vii

• Diplomacy, 167

• disinformation/misinformation, 167, 169–73, 208

• DJI, 106

• DNA profiling, 81

• DNA Script, 83

• DNA synthesizers, 12–13

• Doudna, Jennifer, 81

• DQN (Deep Q-Network), 51–52, 113

• drones, 103–4, 105, 106, 166, 207

• dual-use technology. See omni-use technology

• dystopia, 215–17

E

• East Germany, 192

• eBay, 188–89

• economic inequality, 153–54

• Edison, Thomas, 35

• ego, 140–41

• electricity, 30–31

• EleutherAI, 68–69

• Elizabeth I (queen of England), 39, 40

• Endy, Drew, 84

• energy, 99–101, 198

• engines, 23–25

• ENIAC, 32

• enzymatic synthesis, 83, 109

• Epic of Gilgamesh, 5

• Esvelt, Kevin, 273

• EternalBlue, 161–62

• ethnic cleansing, 195

• ETH Zurich, 84

• European Union, 125, 229, 260

• evolution, 26–27, 79, 84

• explanation, 243

• explosives, 35, 110

• Exscientia, 110

F

• Facebook, 150, 172, 258

• facial recognition software, 194, 207

• Fakhrizadeh, Mohsen, 165

• feudalism, 184

• Feynman, Richard, 259

• fire, 26–27

• flood myths, 5

• flying shuttle, 39

• Ford, Henry, 24

• Ford Motor Company, 98

• four features, defined, vii

• fragility amplifiers. See nation-state fragility amplifiers

• fragmentation. See decentralization

• Franklin, Rosalind, 80

• frenzy phase, 132

• fusion power, 100

G

• gain-of-function (GOF) research, 175–77

• Gato, 111

• gene editing

  • containment and, 46, 265

  • CRISPR technology and, 81–82, 86, 129–30

  • ethical issues, 86

• Genentech, 80

• general-purpose technologies

  • as accelerants, 92

  • containment and, 233

  • corporate concentration and, 190–91

  • defined, 26

  • internal combustion engine as, 25, 26

  • invisibility of, 27

  • omni-use and, 111

• generative AI, 69, 73

  • See also large language models

• gene synthesis, 83–84, 247–48

• genetically modified organisms (GMOs), 45, 46, 231

• genetic engineering

  • accessibility and, 82–83

  • autonomy and, 114

  • containment and, 46, 265, 269–70

  • genome sequencing, 80–81, 114

  • origins of, 80

  • See also gene editing; synthetic biology

• genetics, 55

  • See also synthetic biology

• Genghis Khan, 205

• genome sequencing, 80–81

• geopolitics

  • AlphaGo and, 117–19, 120

  • arms race rhetoric and, 124–25, 126–27

  • China and, 120–24

  • as coming wave incentive, 119–27

  • containment and, 234

  • European Union and, 125

  • India and, 125–26

  • international cooperation and, 263–67

  • post-sovereign world and, 192

  • Sputnik and, 119–20

• germline editing, 265

• GitHub, 128–29

• Gladstone, William, 131

• global challenges, 137–40, 219

• globalization, 107, 155–56

• global warming. See climate change

• Go, 53–54, 113, 117–19, 120

• Google

  • corporate power of, 187

  • DeepMind purchase, 60, 255–57

  • efficiency and, 68

  • LaMDA and, 71, 72

  • large language models and, 66

  • quantum computing and, 97–98, 122

  • robotics and, 95

  • on transformers, 64

• Google Scholar, 128

• Gopher, 68

• gorilla problem, 115–16

• governments

  • containment and, 258–63

  • organizational limitations of, 148–50

  • See also nation-states

• GPS (Global Positioning System), 110

• GPT-2, 64, 70

• GPT-3, 64, 68

• GPT-4, 64, 113–14

• GPUs, 130, 251

• grand bargain, defined, viii

• Great Britain

  • corporations and, 186, 189

  • surveillance, 193, 195–96

• great power competition. See geopolitics

• Gutenberg, Johannes, 30, 35

H

• H1N1 flu, 173–74

• hallucination problem, 243

• Harvard Wyss Institute, 95

• Hassabis, Demis, 8

• health care. See medical applications

• Henrich, Joseph, 28

• Heritage Foundation, 257

• Hershberg, Elliot, 87

• Hezbollah, 196–97

• Hidalgo, César, 108

• hierarchical planning, 76–77

• Hinton, Geoffrey, 59, 60, 130

• Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombings, 41–42

• Hobbes, Thomas, 216

• Homo technologicus, 6

• Hugging Face, 199

• Human Genome Project, 80–81

• Huskisson, William, 131

• Hutchins, Marcus, 161

• hyper-evolution, 105, 107–9

  • chips and, 32–33, 57, 81, 108

  • containment and, 250

  • large language models and, 66, 68

I

• India, 125–26, 169–70

• Industrial Revolution

  • containment attempts, 39, 40, 281–83

  • openness imperative and, 127

  • profit motive and, 133, 134

  • technology waves and, 28–29

• inertial confinement, 100

• Inflection AI, 66, 68, 243, 244

• information

  • dematerialization and, 55–56

  • DNA as, 79, 87–88

• Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 241

• integrated circuit, 32

• intelligence

  • action and, 75–76

  • corporations and, 186–87

  • economic value of, 136

  • gorilla problem, 115–16

  • prediction and, 62

  • See also artificial intelligence

• interconnectedness, 28

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 138–39

• internal combustion engine, 24–25, 26, 35–36

• International Atomic Energy Agency, 241

• international cooperation, 263–67

• internet, 33, 107–8, 202

• iPhone, 187

• Iran, 165

• Israel, 165

J

• James, Kay Coles, 257

• Japan, containment attempts, 39, 40

• jobs, technology impact on, 177–81, 261, 262

• Joint European Torus, 100

K

• Kasparov, Garry, 53

• Kay, John, 39

• Ke Jie, 118–19, 121

• Kennan, George F., 37

• Keynes, John Maynard, 178

• Khan, A. Q., 45

• Khrushchev, Nikita, 126

• Kilobots, 95

• Klausner, Richard, 85

• Krizhevsky, Alex, 59

• Kurzweil, Ray, 57

L

• lab leaks, 173–75, 176

• labor markets, 177–81, 261, 262, 282

• LaMDA, 71–72, 75

• Lander, Eric, 265

• language, 27, 157

  • See also large language models

• LanzaTech, 87

• large language models (LLMs), 62–65

  • bias in, 69–70, 239–40

  • capabilities of, 64–65

  • deepfakes and, 170

  • efficiency of, 68

  • open source and, 69

  • scale of, 65–66

  • synthetic biology and, 91

• laser weapons, 263

• law enforcement, 97–98

• Lebanon, 196–97

• LeCun, Yann, 130

• Lee Sedol, 53–54, 117

• Legg, Shane, 8

• legislation, 260

  • See also regulation as method for containment

• Lemoine, Blake, 71–72

• Lenoir, Jean Joseph Étienne, 23

• Li, Fei-Fei, 59

• libertarianism, 201

• Library of Alexandria, 41

• licensing, 261

• lithium production, 109

• LLaMA system, 69

• London DNA Foundry, 83

• longevity technologies, 85–86

• Luddites, 39, 40, 281–83

M

• machine learning

  • autonomy and, 113

  • bias in, 69–70, 239–40

  • computer vision and, 58–60

  • cyberattacks and, 162–63, 166–67

  • limitations of, 73

  • medical applications, 110

  • military applications and, 103–5

  • potential of, 61–62

  • protein structure and, 89–90

  • robotics and, 95

  • supervised deep learning, 65

  • synthetic biology and, 90–91

  • See also deep learning

• Macron, Emmanuel, 125

• Malthus, Thomas, 136

• Manhattan Project, 41, 124, 126, 141, 270

• Maoism, 192

• Mao Zedong, 194

• Marcus, Gary, 73

• Maybach, Wilhelm, 24

• McCarthy, John, 73

• McCormick, Cyrus, 133

• medical applications, 85, 95, 110

• megamachine, 217

• Megvii, 194

• Meta, 69, 128, 167

• Micius, 122

• Microsoft, 69, 98, 128, 160–61

• military applications

  • AI and, 104, 165

  • asymmetry and, 106

  • machine learning and, 103–5

  • nation-state fragility amplifiers and, 167–69

  • omni-use technology and, 110–11

  • robotics and, 165–66

• Minsky, Marvin, 58, 130

• misinformation. See disinformation/misinformation

• Mitchell, Melanie, 73

• Model T, 24

• Modern Turing Test, 76–77, 78, 115, 190, 210

• Mojica, Francisco, 129–30

• Montreal Protocol (1987), 45, 263

• Moore, Gordon, 32–33, 35

• Moore’s Law, 32–33, 67, 81, 108

• Motorwagen, 24

• Mumford, Lewis, 29, 217

• mutually assured destruction, 43

N

• nanotechnology, 101

• narrow path, defined, viii

• National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences (China), 122

• nation-state fragility amplifiers, vii, 11

  • AI and, 166–67

  • authoritarianism and, 158–59

  • bad actor empowerment and, 165–66, 168

  • cyberattacks and, 160–63

  • democracies and, 158, 185

  • disinformation and, 169–73

  • fragility and, 152–54

  • globalization and, 155–56

  • inadvertent, 173–77

  • military applications and, 167–69

  • power and, 163–64

  • technological unemployment and, 177–81

• nation-states

  • containment and, 143, 159

  • economic inequality and, 153–54

  • equilibrium of, 147

  • functions of, 158

  • importance of, 151–52

  • regulation and, 230–31

  • technology symbiosis with, 156–58

  • trust and, 152–53

  • See also geopolitics; governments; nation-state fragility amplifiers

• Neuralink, 91

• neural networks, 59, 64

  • See also deep learning

• 1984 (Orwell), 196

• Nobel, Alfred, 35

• Nordhaus, William, 30–31

• North Korea, 44, 161

• NotPetya, 161–62, 163

• Noyce, Robert, 32

• nuclear technology

  • arms race rhetoric and, 126

  • catastrophe and, 205

  • containment of, 42–45, 264–65

  • development of, 41–42

  • ego and, 141

  • safety and, 241

• NVIDIA, 130, 250, 251

O

• Odin, 82

• offensive vs. defensive capabilities, 157, 234

• off-grid living, 198

• off switches, 244–45

• omni-use technology, 105, 110–12

  • AI and, 111, 130

  • containment and, 233

  • contradictions and, 202

  • power and, 182

  • regulation and, 229–30

• OpenAI, 62, 64, 69, 251

• openness imperative, 127–29

• opioids, 36

• Oppenheimer, J. Robert, 140

• optimization problems, 98

• organizational limitations, 148–50, 228

• Orwell, George, 196

• Otto, Nicolaus August, 23

• Ottoman Empire, 38, 40

P

• Pakistan, 45

• PaLM, 66, 68

• pandemics, 205, 209, 243, 273–74

  • See also COVID-19 pandemic

• Pan Jianwei, 122–23

• Paris Agreement, 45, 46, 263

• Partial Test Ban Treaty (1963), 42–43

• Partnership on AI, 246

• patent system, 127

• pathogens

  • containment and, 273–74

  • gain-of-function (GOF) research, 175–77

  • lab leaks, 173–75, 176

• PayPal, 188–89

• peer review, 128

• Pelosi, Nancy, 170

• Perez, Carlota, 29, 132

• pessimism aversion, viii, 13–14, 102, 236, 253

• petrochemical industry, 87

• Phantom camera quadcopter, 106

• phishing, 171

• phonograph, 35

• physical self-modifications, 86, 200

• Pi, 243

• Plague of Justinian, 205

• Plato, 5

• PlayStation 2, 110–11

• polio vaccine, 263

• political polarization, 155

• popular movements, 271–72

• population size

  • crisis of, 219–20

  • technology waves and, 27–28

• populism, 153

• post-sovereign world

  • authoritarianism and, 185, 191–92

  • contradictions and, 202–4

  • corporations and, 186–89

  • decentralization and, 198–99, 200–202

  • dematerialization and, 189

  • democracies and, 185

  • ethnic cleansing and, 195

  • hybrid entities and, 196–97

  • power and, 184–85

  • surveillance and, 193–96, 206

• power, 102

  • contradictions and, 202

  • nation-state fragility amplifiers and, 163–64

  • omni-use technology and, 182

  • post-sovereign world and, 184–85

• power loom, 282–83

• printing, 30, 35, 38–39, 40, 157

• profit motive, 131–36

  • containment and, 254–58

• proliferation, 30–31, 32–34

  • AI and, 68–69

  • inevitability of, 40–41, 47

• protein folds, 88–90

• Proteus, 94

• Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons (1995), 263

• public benefit corporations, 258

• Putin, Vladimir, 125

Q

• quantum computing, 97–99, 109, 114, 122

R

• R&D spending, 129, 134, 259

• racism, 69, 239–40

• radio, 157

• railways, 23, 131–32

• ransomware, 160–62

• Reagan, Ronald, 201

• Rebellion Defense, 166

• red teaming, 246

• Reformation, 35

• regenerative technologies, 85

• regulation as method for containment, 225–26

  • challenges of, 226–27, 229–30

  • legislation and, 260

  • licensing and, 261

  • nation-states and, 230–31

  • necessity of, 277

  • self-critical culture and, 269

• reinforcement learning, 95, 117, 166–67, 240

  • See also machine learning

• Remotec Andros Mark 5A-1 robot, 97–98

• Renaissance, 201

• renewable energy, 100–101

• Restrepo, Pascual, 179

• revenge effects, 36, 176, 177

• Ring, 227

• RNA editing, 82

• Robinson, James, 276, 278

• robotics, 93–97

  • Chinese development of, 122

  • military applications, 165–66

  • profit motive and, 134–35

  • synthetic biology and, 109

• Rogers, Everett, 56–57

• Rotblat, Joseph, 270

• Russell, Stuart, 115, 244

• Russian flu epidemic, 173–74

• Russian invasion of Ukraine, 44, 103–4

• Rutherford, Ernest, 41

S

• Samsung Group, 188

• Sanofi, 110

• SARS, 174–75

• scaling hypothesis, 67–68, 75

• Schneier, Bruce, 167

• Schumpeter, Joseph, 29

• Scientific Revolution, 35, 127

• SecureDNA, 247, 265

• self-driving vehicles, 113

• semiconductors, 32, 84, 249–50

• SenseTime, 194

• Shield AI, 166

• silk, 41

• Singer, Isaac, 133

• Singularity, 74

  • See also superintelligence

• smartphones, 33, 60, 112, 187

• Smil, Vaclav, 138

• Snowden, Edward, 122

• social media

  • contradictions and, 202

  • disinformation and, 172

  • nation-states and, 155, 156

  • openness imperative and, 128

  • organizational efficiency and, 150

• solar energy, 100, 198

• Solugen, 86

• South Korea, 188

• Soviet Union, 171–72, 192

• space debris, 36

• space travel, 122

• SpaceX, 104

• Sparrow, 95

• speed. See hyper-evolution

• Sputnik, 119–20, 126

• Stability AI, 199

• Stable Diffusion, 69

• stagnation, 217–21

• Starlink, 104

• start-up myth, 141

• steam engine, 23, 131

• Stephenson, George, 131

• stirrup, 183–84

• stone tools, 26

• superintelligence, 74–75, 77, 115

• surveillance

  • audits and, 248

  • dystopia and, 215–17

  • post-sovereign world and, 193–96, 206

  • regulation and, 228

  • resistance to, 277–78

• Sutskever, Ilya, 59

• swarming robots, 95–96

• Switch Transformer, 68

• Sycamore, 122

• synthetic biology

  • AI and, 89–90, 109

  • audits and, 247–48

  • catastrophe scenarios and, 208–9

  • computers and, 87–88

  • current applications, 84–85

  • decentralization and, 200

  • deep learning and, 90–91

  • defined, viii

  • dematerialization and, 190

  • development of, 55

  • international cooperation and, 265–66

  • omni-use technology and, 112

  • potential of, 85–87

  • power of, 56

  • profit motive and, 134

  • research unpredictability and, 129–30

  • See also coming wave; gene editing

• synthetic media, 169–71, 172–73

• Synthia, 84

• systems biology, 85

• Szilard, Leo, 41

T

• taxation, 261–62

• technological unemployment, 177–81, 261, 262, 282

• technology

  • defined, viii, 26

  • failures of, 18

  • interrelated nature of, 56–57

  • societal dependence on, 218–19

  • as symbiotic with nation-states, 156–58

  • ubiquity of, 235–36

  • unintended consequences of, 35–36

  • See also coming wave technology characteristics; specific technologies

• technology cost decreases

  • AI and, 64, 68

  • computing, 108

  • containment and, 39, 43, 233–34

  • genetic engineering, 80, 81, 83, 84

  • genome sequencing, 81

  • power and, 102

  • proliferation and, 31

  • robotics, 95, 96

• technology waves, 6, 16, 25–26

  • acceleration of, 28–29, 92

  • diffusion and, 30–31

  • evolution and, 26–27

  • inevitability of, 29, 47

  • invisibility of, 27, 73

  • material and, 54–55

  • proliferation and, 32–34

  • resignation to, 47

  • unpredictability of, 29

  • urbanization and, 27–28

• telephone, 31

• television, 157

• terrorism, 44–45, 160–62, 207, 212–13

• Thiel, Peter, 201

• 3-D printing (additive manufacturing), 96, 109, 166, 190

• Tilly, Charles, 157

• Tiwari, Manoj, 169–70

• Toffler, Alvin, 29

• tokens, 63

• totalitarianism. See authoritarianism; surveillance

• traffic optimization, 98

• transcriptors, 88

• transformers, 64, 90–91

• transistor, 32–33, 67

• Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968), 43, 263

• Tsar Bomba, 42

• Tsinghua University, 121

• TSMC, 251

• Turing, Alan, 35, 75

• 23andMe, 81

• 2001: A Space Odyssey, 110

U

• Uighur ethnic cleansing, 195

• Ukraine, 44, 103–4, 161–62

• Unabomber, 213

• United States

  • export controls, 249–50

  • international cooperation and, 265–66

  • surveillance, 195

• universal basic income (UBI), 262

• University of Oxford, 101

• Urban II (pope), 39

• urbanization, technology waves and, 27–28

• U.S. National Security Agency (NSA), 161

V

• vehicles

  • asymmetrical impact and, 107

  • autonomy and, 113

  • internal combustion engine and, 24–25

  • regulation of, 229–30

• Venter, Craig, 84

• Vigilant Solutions, 196

• viruses, 173–75, 209, 273–74

• von Neumann, John, 141, 221, 222

W

• Walmart, 95–96

• WannaCry, 160–61, 163, 166

• Watson, James, 80

• Watson, Thomas J., 32

• WaveNet, 61

• waves, viii, 5–6, 16

  • See also technology waves

• We (Zamyatin), 196

• weapons

  • AI and, 165

  • containment and, 39, 40, 263

  • nation-states and, 157

  • stirrup and, 183–84

  • See also military applications; nuclear technology

• wheel, 28

• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, 260

• Wilkins, Maurice, 80

• Winner, Langdon, 156

• World War I, 110, 205

• World War II, 32, 42, 126, 205, 264

• writing, 27, 28, 156–57

X

• Xi Jinping, 121, 122, 123–24, 249

Z

• Zamyatin, Yevgeny, 196

• Zhang, Feng, 265

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