Notes

Chapter 1: Changing Direction

¹ Denmark annual data from Carsten Vittrup, Energinet.dk, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 22 May 2014; January from Kjetil Malkenes Hovland, “Denmark’s Wind Power Output Rises to Record in First Half,” Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2014; Portugal from Redes Energéticas Nacionais, Technical Data 2013 (Lisbon: 2014), p. 7; Spain from “Balance of Electrical Energy,” Table in Red Eléctrica de España, “Statistical Series,” at www.ree.es/en/publications/indicators-and-statistical-data/statistical-series, updated April 2014; Ireland from monthly and “Summary 2013” reports in EirGrid, “All-Island Wind and Fuel Mix Report,” at www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/all-islandwindandfuelmixreport, viewed 20 May 2014; RenewableUK, “Wind Power Beats Nuclear and Coal in Record-breaking August,” press release (London: 1 September 2014).

² Australian Energy Market Operator, South Australian Electricity Report (Adelaide: August 2014), p. 21; Giles Parkinson, “South Australia Hits 100% Renewables—for a Whole Working Day,” RenewEconomy, 7 October 2014; China wind and nuclear from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); number of Chinese households calculated by Earth Policy Institute from Franz Mauthner and Werner Weiss, Solar Heat Worldwide: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2012 (Gleisdorf, Austria: International Energy Agency (IEA), Solar Heating & Cooling Programme, June 2014), p. 9, and from Li Junfeng, China Renewable Energy Industries Association, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010.

³ Solar Energy Industries Association, “Major Solar Projects in the United States: Operating, Under Construction, or Under Development,” Table at www.seia.org/research-resources/major-solar-projects-list, updated 15 August 2014; American Wind Energy Association, “American Wind Power Reaches Major Power Generation Milestones in 2013,” press release (Washington, DC: 5 March 2014); Mike Wiser, “Iowa Jobs in Jeopardy If Congress Kills Wind Tax Credits,” Sioux City Journal, 30 November 2013; Matthew L. Wald, “Texas Is Wired for Wind Power, and More Farms Plug In,” New York Times, 23 July 2014; Ryan Holeywell, “Proposed Power Line Could Let Texas Share Electricity,” Houston Chronicle, 22 May 2014.

⁴ Ray Weaver, “Onshore Wind Least Expensive Form of Power,” Copenhagen Post, 22 July 2014; Ari Phillips, “Onshore Wind Power Is Now Cheapest Form Of New Electricity In Denmark,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 22 July 2014; Carsten Vittrup, Energinet.dk, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, 22 October 2014; Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, 2014 Australian Energy Update (Canberra: July 2014), pp. 13–15; REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), p. 47; Giles Parkinson, “Solar Has Won. Even if Coal Were Free to Burn, Power Stations Couldn’t Compete,” (London) Guardian, 6 July 2014.

⁵ Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya Lead Renewables Spurt in Africa,” press release (New York: 21 August 2014); Justin Doom, “Africa to Add More Renewables in 2014 Than Past 14 Years,” Bloomberg, 21 August 2014; REN21, op. cit. note 4, pp. 47, 57.

⁶ World Health Organization (WHO), “7 Million Premature Deaths Annually Linked to Air Pollution,” press release (Geneva: 25 March 2014); WHO, “WHO Sets Benchmarks to Reduce Health Damage from Indoor Air Pollution (Geneva: 12 November 2014); REN21, op. cit. note 4, p. 75.

⁷ Giles Parkinson, “Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Transformational Moment’ in Renewables Investment,” RenewEconomy, 31 January 2014; Noah Buhayar and Jim Polson, “Buffett Ready to Double $15 Billion Solar, Wind Bet,” Bloomberg, 10 June 2014; Turner Enterprises Inc., “Turner Renewable Energy,” at www.tedturner.com/renewable-energy, viewed 5 November 2014; Anuchit Nguyen, “Energy Absolute to Invest $1.4 Billion in Solar, Wind Projects,” Bloomberg, 21 August 2014; Alan Ohnsman, “Musk Wealth Soars $1.1 Billion in One Day as Tesla Surges,” Bloomberg, 25 February 2014.

⁸ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “2013: Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), p. 5; projection for 6-foot sea level rise from Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf, “Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 51 (22 December 2009), pp. 21,527–32.

⁹ David Lobell and Gregory Asner, “Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S. Agricultural Yields,” Science, vol. 299, no. 5,609 (14 February 2003), p. 1,032; Shaobing Peng et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101, no. 27 (6 July 2004), pp. 9,971–75; Liangzhi You et al., “Impact of Growing Season Temperature on Wheat Productivity in China,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 146, no. 6–7 (15 June 2009), pp. 1,009–14.

¹⁰ IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 485.

¹¹ Elaine Kurtenbach, “Rising Seas Threaten Shanghai, Other Major Cities,” Associated Press, 18 October 2009.

¹² For additional information, see IPCC, “2014: Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

¹³ Bloomberg New Energy Finance et al., Climatescope 2014: Mapping the Global Frontiers for Clean Energy Investment (Washington, DC: 2014), pp. 4–8.

¹⁴ BP, op. cit. note 2; REN21, op. cit. note 4, pp. 47–50.

¹⁵ Solar capacity from BP, op. cit. note 2; Liam Denning, “Lights Flicker for Utilities,” Wall Street Journal, 22 December 2013; Chris Nelder, “Can the Utility Industry Survive the Energy Transition?” Greentech Media, 9 April 2013.

¹⁶ Denning, op. cit. note 15; “Looking for Lifelines,” The Economist, 5 June 2014; Amory B. Lovins, “Let’s Celebrate, Not Lament, Renewables’ Disruption of Electric Utilities,” RMI Outlet, at blog.rmi.org, 6 February 2014; Western Electric Coordinating Council, Reliability Challenges White Paper (Salt Lake City, UT: 2 October 2014), p. 17; David Biello, “Fight over Rooftop Solar Forecasts a Bright Future for Cleaner Energy,” Scientific American, 25 March 2014; Nichola Groom, “Big Utilities Pushing into Booming Home Solar Market,” Reuters, 22 October 2014.

¹⁷ BP, op. cit. note 2; “Power to the Poor,” The Economist, 10 February 2001, pp. 21–23; Robert H. Williams, “Facilitating Widespread Deployment of Wind and Photovoltaic Technologies,” in Energy Foundation, 2001 Annual Report (San Francisco: 2002), pp. 20–22; Elisabeth Rosenthal, “African Huts Far From the Grid Glow with Renewable Power,” New York Times, 24 December 2010.

¹⁸ Declining coal consumption in European countries from BP, op. cit. note 2; U.S. coal use from “Coal Consumption by Sector,” Table 6.2 in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, September 2014.

¹⁹ Figure of 180 coal plants retired or planned to retire and 343 remaining from Sierra Club, “Victories,” at content.sierraclub.org/coal/victories, viewed 9 January 2015; Sierra Club, “2013: Landmark Year for Clean Energy; Twilight for Coal,” press release (San Francisco, CA: 29 December 2013).

²⁰ Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing key to shale gas and oil from DOE, EIA, Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays (Washington, DC: 2011), p. 4; U.S. switching from coal to natural gas from Steven Macmillan et al., Gas to Coal Competition in the U.S. Power Sector (Paris: IEA, 2013), p. 4; U.S. natural gas production from “Table 4.1 Natural Gas Overview,” Table in DOE, EIA, Monthly Energy Review, November 2014, p. 69; DOE, EIA, “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Carbon Dioxide Is Produced When Different Fuels Are Burned?,” at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11, updated 4 June 2014; Robert W. Howarth et al., “Venting and Leaking of Methane from Shale Gas Development: Response to Cathles et al.,” Climatic Change, vol. 113, no. 2 (1 February 2012), pp. 537-49; Robert W. Howarth, “A Bridge to Nowhere: Methane Emissions and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Natural Gas,” Energy Science and Engineering, vol. 2, no. 2 (June 2014), pp. 47–60; Dana R. Caulton et al., “Toward a Better Understanding and Quantification of Methane Emissions From Shale Gas Development,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 111, no. 17 (29 April 2014), pp. 6,237–42; Christina Nunez, “Switch to Natural Gas Won’t Reduce Carbon Emissions Much, Study Finds,” National Geographic, 24 September 2014.

²¹ In the United States, most new wells are shale gas wells, which deplete far more quickly than conventional wells. More shale gas wells from DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (Washington, DC: 2014), p. MT-23; David Wethe, “Wells That Fizzle Are a ‘Potential Show Stopper’ for the Shale Boom,” Bloomberg News, 24 February 2014; shale and tight oil depletion further covered in J. David Hughes, Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Boom (Santa Rosa, CA: Post Carbon Institute, October 2014); Matthew Philips, “Carnage on the Natural Gas Market,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 27 February 2014.

²² China uses more coal than all other countries combined from BP, op. cit. note 2; Lauri Myllyvirta, “China’s Coal Use Actually Falling Now (For the First Time this Century),” Greenpeace Energy Desk, 22 October 2014; Tim Buckley, “China’s Declining Coal Dependence is Evident in the Data,” Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Cleveland, OH, 6 January 2015; concern about air pollution from Li Shuo and Lauri Myllyvirta, The End of China’s Coal Boom (Greenpeace East Asia, 2014), p. 4; “Chinese Anger Over Pollution Becomes Main Cause of Social Unrest,” Bloomberg News, 6 March 2013; water scarcity and coal from China Water Risk, “MWR Announces Water-for-Coal Plan,” press release (Hong Kong: 17 December 2013), and from Coco Liu, “As China’s Demand for Coal Soars, So Does Its Water Scarcity,” ClimateWire, 1 July 2013.

²³ CO₂ emissions calculated by Earth Policy Institute from energy consumption in BP, op. cit. note 2, and from emissions data in T. A. Boden, G. Marland, and R. J. Andres, “Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,” in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2013) and in Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2014, at www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm, updated 21 September 2014; oil use dropping in many industrial countries and United State is leading consumer from BP, op. cit. note 2; U.S. oil consumption from “Petroleum Products Supplied by Type,” Table 3.5 in DOE, op. cit. note 18; roughly equivalent of $1-per-gallon from “Average U.S. Retail Fuel Prices per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent (GGE),” Table in DOE, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Clean Cities Alternatives Fuel Price Report (Washington, DC: 2014) and Michael B. McElroy, “Time to Electrify: Reducing Our Dependence on Imported Oil – While Addressing the Threat of Climate Change,” Harvard Magazine, July/August 2011, pp. 36–39.

²⁴ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2013 (Washington, DC: December 2013), p. 4; Michael Liebreich, “A Year of Cracking Ice: 10 Predictions for 2014,” at about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-a-year-of-cracking-ice-10-predictions-for-2014, 29 January 2014; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (Paris: 2013), pp. 427–28, 454; Ron Bousso, “Global Oil Exploration Nears $1 Trillion—Where are the Finds?” Reuters, 10 July 2014.

²⁵ Companies spent a half-trillion dollars in 2009–13 from Daniel Gilbert and Justin Scheck, “Big Oil Companies Struggle to Justify Soaring Project Costs,” Wall Street Journal, 28 January 2014; ExxonMobil production dropped from ExxonMobil, Summary Annual Report 2013 (Irving, TX: 2014), p. 5, and from ExxonMobil, Summary Annual Report 2012 (Irving, TX: 2014), p. 5; Royal Dutch Shell, Royal Dutch Shell plc Annual Report and For 20-F for the Year Ended December 31, 2013 (The Hague: 2014), p. 11; Chevron, 2013 Annual Report (San Ramon, CA: 2014), p. 18; “Chevron Profit Falls 32% in 4^th Quarter on Lower Production, Prices,” Associated Press, 31 January 2014; Daniel Gilbert and Tess Stynes, “Exxon Mobil Profit Falls on Lower Production,” Wall Street Journal, 30 January 2014; “Royal Dutch Shell plc Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Results Announcement,” press release (The Hague: 30 January 2014).

²⁶ Stock price changes in Morningstar, Inc., “Morningstar,” at www.morningstar.com, viewed October 2014.

²⁷ Mason Inman, “How to Measure the True Cost of Fossil Fuels,” Scientific American, vol. 308, no. 4 (April 2013); Rachel Nuwer, “Oil Sands Mining Uses Up Almost as Much Energy as It Produces,” InsideClimate News, 19 February 2014; David J. Murphy, “The Implications of the Declining Energy Return on Investment of Oil Production,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, vol. 327, no. 2,006 (13 January 2014); Shelley Dubois, “Petroleum Engineers: Big Oil Wants You,” Fortune Magazine, 20 July 2011; “ExxonMobil to Start Production at Record Number of New Oil and Gas Projects in 2014,” BusinessWire, 5 March 2014; Royal Dutch Shell, “New Shell CEO Ben van Beurden Sets Agenda for Sharper Performance and Rigorous Capital Discipline,” press release (The Hague: 30 January 2014); Chevron, “Chevron Announces $39.8 Billion Capital and Exploratory Budget for 2014,” press release (San Ramon, CA: 11 December 2013); Andrew Peaple, “Royal Dutch Shell CEO: Can’t Deny Returns Are Too Low,” Wall Street Journal, 5 September 2014.

²⁸ Jim Snyder, “Shell Seeks 5 More Years for Arctic Drilling Drive,” Bloomberg News, 28 October 2014; Royal Dutch Shell, op. cit. note 27; Royal Dutch Shell, “4^th Quarter and Full Year 2013 Unaudited Results,” press release (The Hague: 30 January 2014); Jennifer A. Dlouhy, “Shell Formally Launches 2015 Arctic Drilling Bid,” Fuel Fix, blog, at fuelfix.com/blog/2014/08/28/shell-formally-launches-2015-arctic-drilling-bid, 28 August 2014; Clifford Krauss, “Shell Submits a Plan for New Exploration of Alaskan Arctic Oil,” New York Times, 28 August 2014.

²⁹ Selina Williams, Géraldine Amiel, and Justin Scheck, “How a Giant Kazakh Oil Project Went Awry,” Wall Street Journal, 31 March 2014; Fredrik Robelius, Giant Oil Fields—The Highway to Oil (Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University Press, 2007), p. 79; Anthony DiPaola, “Kashagan Oil Field Seen by Total Producing 2017 at Latest,” Bloomberg, 10 November 2014; “Oil Firms in Kazakhstan: Cash All Gone,” The Economist, 11 October 2014; Jack Farchy, “Leaking Pipelines to Add up to $4bn in Costs to Kashagan Oil Project,” Financial Times, 9 October 2014.

³⁰ IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: 2014), pp. 93–94, 239; Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI), Achieving the G-20 Call to Phase Out Subsidies to Fossil Fuels, policy brief (Geneva: October 2009), p. 2; GSI, “Fossil Fuels—At What Cost?” at www.iisd.org/gsi/fossil-fuel-subsidies/fossil-fuels-what-cost, viewed 27 February 2013.

³¹ Alex Morales, “Oil Investors at Brink of Losing Trillions of Dollars in Assets,” Bloomberg, 2 December 2014.

³² Ibid.; Mindy Lubber, “Oil Majors Need to Boost Leadership on Climate Change,” Forbes, 29 May 2014.

³³ Kieran Cooke, “Bubble May Burst for Fossil Fuel Giants,” Climate News Network, 7 October 2013.

³⁴ Carbon Tracker Initiative, Unburnable Carbon—Are the Financial Markets Carrying a Carbon Bubble? (London: 2011); 2 degrees Celsius from U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Copenhagen Accord,” at unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/l07.pdf, December 2009; latest estimates from Carbon Tracker Initiative and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Unburnable Carbon: Wasted Capital and Stranded Assets (London: 2013), pp. 4, 10, 13; 1,000 gigatons CO₂ falls between the 50 and the 80 percent chance of staying below 2 degrees Celsius. See also Fred Pearce, “What Is the Carbon Limit?” Yale Environment 360, 6 November 2014, for a discussion of carbon budget estimates.

³⁵ Percentages were estimated from Carbon Tracker Initiative, op. cit. note 34, p. 2; Carbon Tracker Initiative and Grantham Research Institute, op. cit. note 34, pp. 4, 10, 13.

³⁶ U.S. coal use from “Coal Consumption by Sector,” op. cit. note 18; coal plants retired from Sierra Club, “Victories,” webpage, at content.sierraclub.org/coal/victories, viewed 9 January 2015; coal mines idled from Rizwan Qureshi, “Weak Coal Market Forces More than 150 US Coal Mines Idle in H1’13,” press release (Charlottesville, VA: SNL Energy, 27 August 2013); possible stranding of coal and its support infrastructure from Ben Caldecott, James Tilbury, and Yuge Ma, Stranded Down Under? Environment-related Factors Changing China’s Demand for Coal and What this Means for Australian Coal Assets (Oxford: University of Oxford), p. 9.

³⁷ Carrie Tait, “Total Shelves $11-billion Alberta Oil Sands Mine,” (Toronto) Globe and Mail, 30 May 2014.

³⁸ Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt, The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 (Paris, London, Washington, DC: Mycle Schneider Consulting, July 2014); Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 8.0 (September 2014), p. 2; Guy Chazan, “UK Nuclear Clean-up Bill Rises by £6.6bn,” Financial Times, 23 June 2014.

³⁹ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), “Trend in Electricity Supplied,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/WorldTrendinElectricalProduction.aspx, updated 20 July 2014; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris: 2011), pp. 452, 454; “Germany to Phase Out Nuclear Power by 2022,” Spiegel Online, 30 May 2011.

⁴⁰ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 38, pp. 20, 40–41, 156; Mycle Schneider Consulting, “Experts: Three out of Four Nuclear Reactors Under Construction Around the Globe Are Behind Schedule,” press release (Paris and Washington, DC: 18 September 2014); China end-2013 nuclear capacity from IAEA, PRIS, “Operational & Long-Term Shutdown Reactors,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/OperationalReactorsByCountry.aspx, updated 19 October 2014, and from IAEA, PRIS, “NPP Status Changes (2014),” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/home.aspx, updated 19 October 2014; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report Annual Market Update 2013 (Brussels: 2014), pp. 18, 50–51.

⁴¹ World Nuclear Association, WNA Reactor Database, electronic database, at world-nuclear.org/nucleardatabase/Default.aspx?id=27232, viewed 19 October 2014; Liming Qiao, GWEC, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 19 March 2012 and 29 July 2014; 2020 goal from GWEC, op. cit. note 40, p. 45.

⁴² Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 38, pp. 32–33; DOE, Western Area Power Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Draft Upper Great Plains Wind Energy Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (Washington, DC: March 2013), p. 3–6; Koben Calhoun et al., Lessons from Australia: Reducing Solar PV Costs through Installation Labor Efficiency (Boulder, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2014), p. 5; GWEC, op. cit. note 40, pp. 17, 21.

⁴³ National Association of Convenience Stores, “The Modern Gas Station Celebrates 100^th Anniversary,” press release (Alexandria, VA: 25 November 2013).

⁴⁴ Michael Liebreich, “A Year of Cracking Ice: 10 Predictions for 2014,” at about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-a-year-of-cracking-ice-10-predictions-for-2014, 29 January 2014; InsideEVs, “Monthly Blog-In Sales Scorecard,” at insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014-sales-chart-Oct-vfinal3.png, viewed 15 December 2014.

⁴⁵ DOE, EIA, “Electric Power Sales, Revenue and Energy Efficiency Form EIA-861 Detailed Form,” at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861, updated 29 October 2013.

⁴⁶ Dan Fitzpatrick, “Fossil Fuels Stir Debate at Endowments,” Wall Street Journal, 9 September 2014; John Schwartz, “Rockefellers, Heirs to an Oil Fortune, Will Divest Charity of Fossil Fuels,” New York Times, 21 September 2014. For more information on divestment campaigns, see gofossilfree.org.

⁴⁷ Atif Ansar, Ben Caldecott, and James Tilbury, Stranded Assets and the Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaign: What Does Divestment Mean for the Valuation of Fossil Fuel Assets? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013).

Chapter 2: The Rise and Fall of Oil

¹ Margaret Cronin Fisk and Laurel Brubaker Calkins, “BP Gulf of Mexico Spill, From Disaster to Trial: Timeline,” Bloomberg, 24 February 2013; Kathy Finn, “BP Spars with U.S. Government Over Size of Gulf of Mexico Spill,” Reuters, 7 October 2013; Philip Ross, “BP Oil Spill: 2010 Deepwater Horizon Catastrophe Is Much Worse than Thought,” International Business Times, 29 July 2014.

² Size of discoveries shrinking from International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2013 (Paris: 2013), p. 428; Ghawar from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Saudi Arabia,” at www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SA, updated 10 September 2014.

³ IEA, op. cit. note 2, pp. 421, 427, 433.

⁴ Ibid., p. 426; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: 2014), pp. 78, 97.

⁵ Ed Crooks, “Big Oil Counts the Cost of Tapping New Discoveries,” Financial Times, 6 March 2014.

⁶ Selina Williams, Géraldine Amiel, and Justin Scheck, “How a Giant Kazakh Oil Project Went Awry,” Wall Street Journal, 31 March 2014; Nariman Gizitdinov, “Biggest Find in Decades Becomes $39 Billion Cautionary Tale,” Bloomberg News, 17 November 2011; “Costly Delays in Bringing up Kashagan Weighing on Oil,” Forbes, 1 April 2013; DOE, EIA, “Kazakhstan,” at www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=KZ, updated 28 October 2013; Guy Chazan, “Kashagan Dream Lures Unlikely Bedfellows,” Financial Times, 8 July 2013.

⁷ Williams, Amiel, and Scheck, op. cit. note 6; Denis Pinchuk, “Kazakh Oil Output to Rise with Kashagan after 2020-Official,” Reuters, 22 October 2014; Raushan Nurshayeva, “New Pipelines to Cost Kashagan Oil Project up to $3.6 bln,” Reuters, 10 October 2014.

⁸ DOE, EIA, “Canada,” at www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CA, updated 30 September 2014; destroys landscape from Ed Struzik, “On Ravaged Tar Sands Lands, Big Challenges for Reclamation,“ Yale Environment 360, 27 March 2014; low net energy from Rachel Nuwer, “Oil Sands Mining Uses Up Almost as Much Energy as It Produces,” Inside Climate News, 19 February 2013; Mason Inman, “How to Measure the True Cost of Fossil Fuels,” Scientific American, vol. 308, no. 4 (April 2013).

⁹ Steve LeVine, “Big Oil Makes Amends for Missing Another Big Boom,” Quartz, 19 March 2013; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); J. David Hughes, Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Boom (Santa Rosa, CA: Post Carbon Institute, October 2014); IEA, op. cit. note 2, pp. 447–48.

¹⁰ Shell from Karolin Schaps and Dmitry Zhdannikov, “Shell Cuts Spending in U.S. to Lower Shale Exposure,” Reuters, 13 March 2014; Royal Dutch Shell, “New Shell CEO Ben van Beurden Sets Agenda for Sharper Performance and Rigorous Capital Discipline,” press release (The Hague: 30 January 2014); Clifford Krauss, “Shell Submits a Plan for New Exploration of Alaskan Arctic Oil,” New York Times, 28 August 2014; Chevron from Daniel Gilbert and Justin Scheck, “Big Oil Feels the Need to Get Smaller,” Wall Street Journal, 2 November 2014; Jeff Lewis, “Shell Halts Work on Pierre River Oil Sands Mine in Northern Alberta,” (Calgary) Financial Post,12 February 2014; Statoil from Jeffrey Jones, “Statoil Halts Multibillion-dollar Alberta Oil Sands Project,” (Toronto) Globe and Mail, 25 September 2014; Carrie Tait, “Total Shelves $11-billion Alberta Oil Sands Mine,” (Toronto) Globe and Mail, 30 May 2014.

¹¹ JBC from Daniel Gilbert and Justin Scheck, “Big Oil Feels the Need to Get Smaller,” Wall Street Journal, 2 November 2014; BP, op. cit. note 9.

¹² BP, op. cit. note 9; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, updated 13 June 2013; Indonesia left OPEC from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, “Member Countries,” at www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm, viewed12 December 2014, and from “Indonesia to Leave OPEC,” BBC, 29 May 2008.

¹³ BP, op. cit. note 9.

¹⁴ U.S. oil use with data for 1950–2010 from “Petroleum Products Supplied by Type,” Table 3.5 from DOE, EIA, Monthly Energy Review, February 2014; data for 2011–14 from DOE, EIA, “Short Term Energy Outlook: Custom Table Builder,” electronic database, at www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/query, updated 11 February 2014; oil prices compiled by Earth Policy Institute from International Monetary Fund, “International Financial Statistics,” electronic database, at www.imfstatistics.org/imf, updated September 2007, August 2009, and March 2012.

¹⁵ Most oil used for transportation from DOE, EIA, “U.S. Petroleum Flow, 2013,” at www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/petroleum.pdf, viewed 26 November 2014; most transportation used for passenger cars and trucks from DOE, EIA, “Light-duty Vehicles’ Share of Transportation Energy Use is Projected to Fall,” Today in Energy, 18 July 2014.

¹⁶ Keith Naughton, “Boomers Replace Their Children as No. 1 Market for Autos,” Bloomberg, 5 August 2013.

¹⁷ U.S. licensed drivers and vehicles from “Licensed Drivers, Vehicle Registrations, and Resident Population - Chart,” Table DV-1C in U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHA), “Highway Statistics 2011,” at www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2011/index.cfm, downloaded 13 January 2014; oil consumption data from BP, op. cit. note 9; moving away from cars from “Seeing the Back of the Car,” The Economist, 22 September 2012; Benjamin Davis, Tony Dutzik, and Phineas Baxandall, Transportation and the New Generation: Why Young People are Driving Less and What it Means for Transportation Policy (Boston: Frontier Group and U.S. PIRG Education Fund, April 2012).

¹⁸ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “EPA and NHTSA Set Standards to Reduce Greenhouse Gasses and Improve Fuel Economy for Model Years 2017–2025 Cars and Light Trucks,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: August 2012); big jump in efficiency from Gary Kendall, Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age (Brussels: WWF, March 2008), pp. 79–86.

¹⁹ Michael Sivak, Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked? Part 2: Use of Light-duty Vehicles (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2014), p. 10; U.S. PIRG, “Study Shows Driving Decline in America’s Cities,” press release (Boston: 4 December 2013); Benjamin Davis and Phineas Baxandall, Transportation in Transition (Boston: U.S. PIRG Education Fund and Frontier Group, December 2013), p. 4; Federal Transit Authority from Ashley Halsey III, “D.C. Area Sees Drop in Driving in 21^st Century; Nationwide Driving Has Decreased by 7.6%,” Washington Post, 5 December 2013.

²⁰ Socialize through Internet from DOE, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), “Fact #761: Smaller Share of Teenagers Have a Driver’s License in 2010,” at energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-761-january-7-2013-smaller-share-teenagers-have-drivers-license-2010, 7 January 2013; young people moving away from cars from “Seeing the Back of the Car,” op. cit. note 17; Davis, Dutzik, and Baxandall, op. cit. note 17; share of teen drivers from “Licensed Drivers, by Sex and Percentage in Each Age Group,” from DOT, FHA, Highway Statistics Series (Washington, DC: various years).

²¹ Michael Sivak quote from “Driving Forces: Fewer Young, but More Elderly, Have Driver’s Licenses,” UMTRI Research Review, vol. 42, no. 4 (October-December 2011), p. 1; Ashley Halsey III, “Cost, Economy Keep Many Teens from Driving,” Washington Post, 24 October 2013.

²² Tony Dutzik and Phineas Baxandall, A New Direction: Our Changing Relationship with Driving and the Implications for America’s Future (Boston: U.S. PIRG Education Fund and Frontier Group, 2013), p. 21.

²³ U.S. PIRG, op. cit. note 19.

²⁴ Tali Trigg, “Did Congestion Charging Just Go Viral?” Scientific American Blog, 22 August 2014.

²⁵ “In China, the License Plate Can Cost More than the Car,” Bloomberg, 25 April, 2013; “China’s Hangzhou Latest City to Restrict Car Sales,” Reuters, 25 March 2014; Shanghai’s license plate fee from Yue Li, “Shanghai’s Newest Luxury Item: The License Plate,” Wall Street Journal China Realtime Blog, 23 January 2013; U.S. cars from IHS Automotive cited in National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), NADA DATA 2014 (McLean, VA: 2014), p.16; U.S. population from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 12; 1.1 billion cars in the world today compiled by Earth Policy Institute from International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, “World Vehicles in Use,” at www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use, viewed 13 October 2014.

²⁶ Bike-friendly cities from Ron Sherer, “The Bike Boom,” Christian Science Monitor, 30 June 2013; encouraging biking and walking from DOT, “Safer People, Safer Streets: Summary of U.S. DOT Action Plan to Increase Walking and Biking and Reduce Pedestrian and Cyclist Fatalities,” Washington, DC, September 2014; Brandon Keim, “Did Cars Save Our Cities from Horses?” Nautilus, 7 November 2013.

²⁷ Dave McGinn, “The High Line Effect: Why Cities Around the World (Including Toronto) Are Building Parks in the Sky,” (Toronto) Globe and Mail, 1 October 2014.

²⁸ Brian McKenzie, “Modes Less Traveled—Bicycling and Walking to Work in the United States: 2008–2012,” American Community Survey Reports (May 2014), p. 8.

²⁹ Figure of 6.1 percent commute to work by bike from ibid., p. 8; miles of bikeways and bike friendly-city from Sherer, op. cit. note 26; bike racks from Scott Cohen, City of Portland, OR, discussion with Emily Adams, Earth Policy Institute, 23 September 2014; 36 percent commute trips by bike in City of Copenhagen, “Good, Better, Best: The City of Copenhagen’s Bicycle Strategy 2011-2025,” Copenhagen, 2011, pp. 3, 8.

³⁰ U.S. bike sales from “Bicycle Sales, 1981–2012,” Table in Stacy C. Davis, Susan W. Diegel, and Robert G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 33 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, 2014); U.S. vehicle sales in Ward’s Automotive Group, “U.S. Car and Truck Sales, 1931-2013,”at wardsauto.com/public-data, updated 26 January 2014.

³¹ Mona Chalabi, “Recession Transport: Bike Sales Overtake Cars,” (London) Guardian, Data Blog, 21 July 2013; Nick Squires, “More Bikes Sold than Cars in Italy for First Time Since WW2,” (London) Daily Telegraph, 2 October 2012; Paul Hamilos, “Spanish Saddle up and Ride the Bike Boom That’s Sweeping the Country,” (London) Guardian, 17 September 2013.

³² Bike-share information tallied by Earth Policy Institute; LDA Consulting, Capital Bikeshare 2013 Member Survey (Washington, DC: 22 May 2013), pp. 50–51; visitors from Destination DC, “Washington, DC Visitor Research,” at washington.org/press/DC-information/washington-dc-visitor-research, viewed 15 November 2014.

³³ Bike-share information tallied by Earth Policy Institute. For more information, see Janet Larsen, “Bike Sharing Programs Hit the Streets in Over 500 Cities Worldwide,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 25 April 2013) at www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2013/update112; and “Bicycle Share Fact Sheet,” at www.earth-policy.org/press_room/C68/bicycle_share_fact_sheet, updated September 2014.

³⁴ Jake Pearson, “NYC’s Bike Share, Largest in the Country, to Begin,” Associated Press, 6 May 2013; Sadik-Khan quote from Sherer, op. cit. note 26; Hangzhou from Heshuang Zeng, “China Transportation Briefing: 5 Trends to Watch in China’s Urban Transport,” The City Fix Blog, at thecityfix.com/blog/5-trends-watch-china-urban-transport-2013-1, 31 January 2013, and thecityfix.com/blog/5-trends-watch-china-urban-transport-2013-2, 1 February 2013.

³⁵ GM one of world’s largest automakers from Nick Gibbs, “Toyota Still the World’s Biggest Car Manufacturer,” Telegraph, 24 January 2014; Tim Higgins, “GM Turns to Employee Bike Share Program to Get Around Campus,” Bloomberg, 26 August 2014; Marc Gunther, “Bike Sharing is Pricey: Can Startup Zagster Make it Profitable,” Guardian, 28 August 2014.

³⁶ Sherer, op. cit. note 26.

³⁷ Twenty bikes per car from Molly O’Meara, Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet, Worldwatch Paper 147 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, June 1999), p. 45; 250 million cars from IHS Automotive cited in NADA, op. cit. note 25; 800 million parking spots from David Biello, “No Such Thing as a Free Parking Spot,” Scientific American, 9 January 2011; paved area calculated by Earth Policy Institute with data from Dr. Jeff Kenworthy, Associate Professor in Sustainable Settlements, Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Australia; DOT, FHA, Highway Statistics 2012, (Washington: DC: December 2013); Mark Delucchi, “Motor Vehicle Infrastructure and Services Provided by the Public Sector,” cited in Todd Litman, Transportation Land Valuation (Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, November 2000); and David Walterscheid, DOT, FHA Real Estate Office.

³⁸ EPA, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2014 (Washington, DC: December 2013), p. 50; road costs for bikes less than for cars from Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis: Techniques, Estimates and Implications (Victoria, BC: January 2009), pp. 6–10.

³⁹ U.S. PIRG, op. cit. note 19.

⁴⁰ Compiled by Earth Policy Institute with 2001 from R.L. Polk & Company data cited in NADA, NADA DATA 2012 (McLean, VA: 2012), p.16; 2002–03 from R.L. Polk & Company data cited in National Automobile Dealers Association, NADA DATA 2013 (McLean, VA: 2013), p. 16; 2004–13 from IHS Automotive cited in NADA, op. cit. note 25, p.16.

⁴¹ Vanessa Fuhrmans, “Europe’s Car Makers Spin their Wheels,” Wall Street Journal, 30 September 2013.

⁴² Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Motor Vehicle Statistics of Japan 2013 (Tokyo: 2013), pp. 1, 8; Yuki Hagiwara, Ma Jie, and Anna Mukai, “Casanovas on Foot Baffle Toyota CEO as Japan Car Sales Shrink: Cars,” Bloomberg, 7 October 2013.

⁴³ World Bank, “Motor Vehicles (per 1,000 People),” World Development Indicators, at data.worldbank.org/indicator, updated 9 April 2014.

⁴⁴ Ibid.; Samantha Pearson, “Brazil’s Car Sales Hit Reverse Gear for First Time in a Decade,” Financial Times, 7 January 2014; “India to be World’s 3^rd Largest Automotive Market by 2016: IHS,” (New Delhi) Economic Times, 24 July 2013.

⁴⁵ World Bank, op. cit. note 43; China world’s largest auto market from Angelo Young, “China Extends Lead as World’s Largest Car Market by Sales; GM, Ford China Deliveries up by Double Digits,” International Business Times, 7 July 2014; China overtook U.S. as largest auto market in 2009 from Bill Savadove, “China’s Booming Car Market is Terrific News for Western Automakers,” Agence France Presse, 9 January 2014; China 2013 car sales from Tom Mitchell and Avantika Chilkoti, “China Car Sales Accelerate Away from US and Brazil in 2013,” Financial Times, 9 January 2014; U.S. vehicle sales from Ward’s Automotive Group, “U.S. Car and Truck Sales, 1931–2013,”at wardsauto.com/public-data, updated 26 January 2014.

⁴⁶ “Truck and Bus Registrations for Selected Countries, 1960–2012 (thousands),” Table from Davis, Diegel, and Boundy, op. cit. note 30, p. 3-3; some analysts from Jeff Green and Keith Naughton, “Woes of Megacity Driving Signal Dawn of ‘Peak Car’ Era,” Bloomberg, 23 February 2014.

⁴⁷ Zipcar, “Zipcar Expands Service to Austin, Texas,” press release (Cambridge, MA and Austin, TX: 27 April 2012).

⁴⁸ Martyn Briggs, “Future of Mobility: Growth and Investment Sees Carsharing Become Mainstream,” Frost and Sullivan Market Insight (4 July 2014); worldwide breakdown of members from “Innovative Mobility Carsharing Outlook,” press release (Berkeley, CA: Transportation Sustainability Research Center–University of California, Berkeley, 1 July 2013); nine cars replaced from Elliot Martin and Susan Shaheen, “The Impact of Carsharing on Household Vehicle Ownership,” ACCESS, no. 38 (Spring 2011) and Ashley Halsey III, “D.C. Transit Apps’ Growth Help Fuel an Evolution Away from Sitting Behind the Wheel,” Washington Post, 1 October 2013; 32 cars replaced from AlixPartners, “AlixPartners Study Indicates Greater Negative Effect of Car Sharing on Vehicle Purchases,” press release (New York: 5 February 2014), and Mark Wakefield, AlixPartners, discussion with Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 19 June 2014; U.S. carsharing fleet size from Susan Shaheen and Adam Cohen, Innovative Mobility Carsharing Outlook (Berkeley, CA: Transportation Sustainability Research Center-University of California, Berkeley, summer 2014), p. 3; car share members drive less overall from Elliot W. Martin and Susan A. Shaheen, “Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts of Carsharing in North America,” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, vol. 12, no. 4 (December 2011), pp. 1,074-86.

⁴⁹ Figure of 24 miles per gallon in 2013 from EPA, op. cit. note 38, p. 4; 54.5 miles per gallon in 2025 from EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “EPA and NHTSA Set Standards to Reduce Greenhouse Gasses and Improve Fuel Economy for Model Years 2017-2025 Cars and Light Trucks,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: August 2012).

⁵⁰ Costs declining over time from DOE, “The History of the Electric Car,” at energy.gov/articles/history-electric-car, updated 15 September 2014; John Vidal, “Big Power Out, Solar In: UBS Urges Investors to Join Renewables Revolution,” (London) Guardian, 27 August 2014; Gary Kendall, Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age (Brussels: WWF, March 2008), pp. 79–86.

⁵¹ Christopher DeMorro, “Tesla Model S Is Best Selling Car in Norway—Busts Norway’s Monthly Sales,” CleanTechnica, 4 April 2014; John Vidal, “Norway Has Fallen in Love with Electric Cars—But the Affair is Coming to an End,” (London) Guardian, 29 January 2014.

⁵² David Strahan, “Dump the Pump: When Oil Will Lose its Lustre,” New Scientist, 21 May 2012; roughly equivalent of $1-per-gallon from “Average U.S. Retail Fuel Prices per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent (GGE),” table from DOE, EERE, Clean Cities Alternatives Fuel Price Report (Washington, DC: July 2014) and from Michael B. McElroy, “Time to Electrify: Reducing Our Dependence on Imported Oil—While Addressing the Threat of Climate Change,” Harvard Magazine (July/August 2011), pp. 36–39; “Electric Cars Are Getting Even Cleaner, New Analysis Finds,” press release (Washington, DC: Union of Concerned Scientists, 16 September 2014); Don Anair, “How Do EVs Compare with Gas-Powered Vehicles? Better Every Year,” The Equation, Blog of the Union of Concerned Scientists, 16 September 2014.

Chapter 3: Closing Coal Plants

¹ Percent energy sources from International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (Paris: 2014), p. II.40; wind and solar growth rates BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014).

² “Miners Battle Black Lung, and Bureaucracy,” New York Times, 7 September 2014; Chuin-Wei Yap, “China’s Coal Addiction Brings Scourge of Black Lung,” Wall Street Journal, 15 December 2014; “China Says it Saw Drops in Coal Mining Accidents and Deaths in 2013 as Safety Improves,” Associated Press, 4 January 2014.

³ Coal plants as major source of mercury pollution from U.N. Environment Programme, “Mercury Control from Coal Combustion,” at www.unep.org/chemicalsandwaste/Mercury/PrioritiesforAction/Coalcombustion/tabid/3530/Default.aspx, viewed 11 December 2014; mercury travels from coal burning to water to bioaccumulation from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “How People Are Exposed to Mercury,” at www.epa.gov/mercury/exposure.htm, updated 10 March 2014; coal also contains lead, cadmium, arsenic, and other carcinogens and washing, burning, and mining, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and particulate matter lead to cardio and respiratory diseases from Alan H. Lockwood et al., Coal’s Assault on Human Health (Washington, DC: Physicians for Social Responsibility, November 2009), pp. x–xi, 11, 43.

⁴ Conrad Schneider and Jonathan Banks, The Toll from Coal: An Updated Assessment of Death and Disease from America’s Dirtiest Energy Source (Boston, MA: Clean Air Task Force, September 2010), pp. 5, 8, 10–11.

⁵ Rates of cancer soaring from Ping Zhao et al., “Cancer Trends in China,” Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology, vol. 40, no. 4 (2010), pp. 281–85; rates of cardiovascular disease soaring from World Health Organization, “China,” country profile, Geneva, 2014; Edward Wong, “Life in a Toxic Country,” New York Times, 3 August 2013; Geoffrey Smith, “The Cost of China’s Dependence on Coal—670,000 Deaths a Year,” Fortune, 5 November 2014.

⁶ Yuyu Chen et al., “Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 110, no. 32 (6 August 2013), pp. 12,936–41.

⁷ Paul R. Epstein et al., “Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1,219 (February 2011), pp. 73–98.

⁸ U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, remarks prepared for the Ministerial Meeting on Climate Finance, Warsaw: 20 November 2013; coal emissions calculated by Earth Policy Institute from energy consumption from BP, op. cit. note 1, and from emissions data in T. A. Boden, G. Marland, and R. J. Andres, “Global, Regional, and National Fossil-fuel CO₂ Emissions,” in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2013), and from Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2014, at www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm, updated 21 September 2014.

⁹ Coal consumption from BP, op. cit. note 1; France closing 15 plants between 2012 and 2016 from Réseau de Transport d’Electricité, Generation Adequacy Report on the Electricity Supply-demand Balance in France (Paris: 2012), p. 12; 25 GW wind by 2020 from REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), p. 123.

¹⁰ Denmark banned new coal in 1997 from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Regulatory Reform in Denmark: Regulatory Reform in the Electricity Sector (Paris: 2000), p. 9; Alister Doyle, “Denmark Considers Phasing Out Coal by 2025 in Big Green Shift,” Reuters, 1 November 2014; Hungary closes last remaining coal plant from Elisabeth Rosenthal, “As Europe Kicks Coal, Hungarian Town Suffers,” New York Times, 15 September 2010; Italian police from “Italian Judge Blames Coal Plant for Hundreds of Deaths, Forces it to Shut Down,” Huffington Post, 11 March 2014 and from Emily Atkin, “Italian Judge Order Shutdown of Coal Plant Following Deaths and Disease,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/12/3398671/italian-coal-shutdown, 12 March2014.

¹¹ BP, op. cit. note 1; World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014 (Washington, DC: 2014), pp. 62, 83.

¹² Statistics Canada, “Population by Year, Province and Territory,” at www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html, updated 25 November 2013; Atikokan plant stopped burning coal in 2012 from Ontario Power Generation, “Atikokan Generating Station,” at www.opg.com/generating-power/thermal/stations/atikokan-station/Pages/atikokan-station.aspx, viewed 24 November; Christa Marshall, “Ontario Phases out Coal-fired Power,” Scientific American, 11 January 2013; Government of Ontario, “Creating Cleaner Air in Ontario Province on Track to Eliminate Coal-Fired Generation,” press release (Toronto: 23 October 2013); coal free in 2014 from Government of Ontario, “Creating Cleaner Air in Ontario Province Has Eliminated Coal-Fired Generation,” press release (Toronto:15 April 2014); smog days from Government of Ontario, “Ontario Smog Advisories: 2013–2014,” at www.airqualityontario.com/press/smog_advisories.php?t=1, viewed 13 September 2014; equivalent to 3.7 million cars in 2005 from “Ontario Premier’s Bill Bans Coal-Fired Power in the Province,” Environment News Service, 22 November 2013; Trillium Power Wind Corporation, Round 1: Turbocharging Ontario’s Economy through the Development of Its Unique Offshore Wind Resources (Toronto: January 2010), p. 5; wind part of transition from REN21, op. cit. note 9, p. 122; BP, op. cit. note 1.

¹³ Sierra Club, “Beyond Coal Victories,” at content.sierraclub.org/coal/victories, viewed 9 January 2015; China coal consumption from BP, op. cit. note 1; U.S. coal consumption compiled by Earth Policy Institute with consumption data for 1950–2013 from “Coal Consumption by Sector,” Table 6.2, and heat content data for 1950–2014 from “Approximate Heat Content of Coal and Coke Coal,” Table A.5 in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, September 2014; Association of American Railroads, “Railroads and Coal,” background paper (Washington, DC: July 2014), p. 7.

¹⁴ Steven Mufson, “Tennessee Valley Authority to Close 8 Coal-fired Power Units,” Washington Post, 14 November 2013.

¹⁵ Brad Plumer, “Study: The Coal Industry Is in Far More Trouble Than Anyone Realizes,” Wonkblog, at washingtonpost.com, 8 April 2013; Lincoln F. Pratson, Drew Haerer, and Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, “Fuel Prices, Emission Standards, and Generation Costs for Coal vs Natural Gas Power Plants,” Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 47, no. 9 (2013), pp. 4,926–33.

¹⁶ EPA’s MATS to cause coal plants to shut down and replaced with natural gas from Naureen S. Malik and Harry R. Weber, “Breathing Cleaner Air to Cost Americans on Utility Bills,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 29 October 2014, and from Institute for Energy Research, “Impact of EPA’s Regulatory Assault on Power Plants: New Regulations to Take More than 72 GW of electricity Generation Offline and the Plant Closing Announcements Keep Coming,” (Washington, DC: October 2014); Brad Plumer, “Supreme Court Allows EPA to Keep Regulating Carbon–but Will Review a Few Details,” Wonkblog, at washingtonpost.com, 15 October 2013.

¹⁷ Bob Sanders, “Concord, Portsmouth Businesses Call for Coal Plant Clampdowns,” New Hampshire Business Review, 18 October 2013; DOE, EIA, “Electricity Data Browser,” electronic database, at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser, downloaded 17 July 2014.

¹⁸ DOE, op. cit. note 17; $95 million in imports from Union of Concerned Scientists, “State Rankings of Net Coal Import Expenditures (2012) (billion $),” fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: January 2014); some from other countries from Union of Concerned Scientists, “Burning Coal, Burning Cash: Massachusetts’ Dependence on Imported Coal,” fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: May 2010), p. 1; old plants become uneconomical after pollution controls from Lesley Fleischman et al., “Ripe for Retirement: An Economic Analysis of the U.S. Coal Fleet,” Electricity Journal, vol. 26, no. 10 (December 2013), pp. 51–63.

¹⁹ Population from U.S. Census Bureau, State & County QuickFacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov, updated 30 June 2014; Brayton Point closing in 2017 from Alex Kuffner, “After Rejecting Request to Delay Shutdown, Brayton Point Moves to Close Coal-fired Plant in 2017,” Providence Journal, 29 January 2014; Salem Harbor and Mt. Tom from Erin Ailworth, “The End of the Coal Era in Massachusetts,” Boston Globe, 18 June 2014; cut in carbon emissions from DOE, EIA, State CO₂ Emissions, electronic database at www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/state_emissions.cfm, updated 25 February 2014.

²⁰ Patricia Sullivan, “GenOn Power Plant in Alexandria Is Set to Close,” Washington Post, 29 September 2012; Moran quote from Patricia Sullivan, “Alexandria Officials, Residents Celebrate GenOn Plant Closing,” Virginia Politics blog, at washingtonpost.com, 1 October 2012.

²¹ Valmy plant closed by 2025 from Chris Clarke, “Coal Being Phased Out in Nevada,” Rewire, 4 April 2013; Reid Gardner plant fully closed and replaced with gas and solar by 2019 from Sean Whaley, “NV Energy Proposes Shutting Three of Four Reid Gardner Coal-fired Units,” Las Vegas Review Journal, 1 May 2014; Richard Cowart et al., State Options for Low-Carbon Coal Policy, Coal Initiative Reports, White Paper Series, (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, February 2008), p. 13; uses little coal and exports less from California Energy Commission, “Current and Expected Energy from Coal for California,” (Sacramento, CA: 6 November 2014).

²² Plumer, op. cit. note 15; Lincoln F. Pratson, Drew Haerer, and Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, “Fuel Prices, Emission Standards, and Generation Costs for Coal vs Natural Gas Power Plants,” Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 47, no. 9 (2013), pp. 4,926–33; replacing coal with solar, wind, gas can be cheaper than retrofits from Fleischman et al., op. cit. note 18; horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing key to shale gas from DOE, EIA, Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays (Washington, DC: July 2011), p. 4; switching from coal to less expensive natural gas from DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to 2040 (Washington, DC: April 2014), pp. IF-34-40.

²³ Paul Reig et al., Global Shale Gas Development Water Availability And Business Risks (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2014) p. 19; Robert B. Jackson et al., “Increased Stray Gas Abundance in a Subset of Drinking Water Wells near Marcellus Shale Gas Extraction,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 110, no. 28 (9 July 2013), pp. 11,250–55; John L. Adgate et al., “Potential Public Health Hazards, Exposures and Health Effects from Unconventional Natural Gas Development,” Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 48, no. 15 (2014), pp. 8,307–20; fracking and health complaints from Jamie Smith Hopkins, “5-State Study Finds Unsafe Levels of Airborne Chemicals Near Oil and Gas Sites,” Inside Climate News, 30 October 2014; Felicity Carus “Dangerous Levels of Radioactivity Found at Fracking Waste Site in Pennsylvania,” (London) Guardian, 2 October 2013; Nathaniel R. Warner et al., “Impacts of Shale Gas Wastewater Disposal on Water Quality in Western Pennsylvania,” Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 47, no. 20 (15 October 2013), pp. 11,849–57; wastewater injection and earthquakes in Oklahoma from Darryl Fears, “Firing Fracking Wastewater into the Earth Likely Triggered Okla.’s Many Earthquakes,” Washington Post, 3 July 2014, and from K. M. Keranen et al., “Sharp Increase in Central Oklahoma Seismicity since 2008 Induced by Massive Wastewater Injection,” Science, vol. 345, no. 6,195 (25 July 2014), pp. 448–51; earthquakes in Ohio from Mark Berman, “Study Links Fracking to Dozens of Small Ohio Earthquakes,” Washington Post, 8 January 2015; climate and fracking from Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea, “Venting and Leaking of Methane from Shale Gas Development: Response to Cathles et al.,” Climatic Change, vol. 113, no. 2 (1 February 2012), pp. 537-49; climate also from Robert W. Howarth, “A Bridge to Nowhere: Methane Emissions and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Natural Gas,” Energy Science and Engineering, vol. 2, no. 2 (June 2014), pp. 47–60; over 400 municipalities from Food Water Watch, “The Anti-Fracking Movement,” at www.foodandwaterwatch.org/water/fracking/anti-fracking-map, viewed 12 December 2014.

²⁴ Jennifer M. Granholm, “State of the State Address,” 3 February 2009, at www.michigan.gov/documents/gov/SOS2009_265915_7.pdf; DOE, EIA, Electricity Data Browser, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser, viewed 14 November 2014.

²⁵ Twenty-one currently operating coal plants in Texas from DOE, EIA, Electricity Data Browser, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser, viewed 14 September 2014; five proposed coal plants from Sierra Club, “Proposed Coal Plant Tracker,” at content.sierraclub.org/coal/environmentallaw/plant-tracker, viewed 12 September 2014; Matthew Tresaugue, “Water Emerges as a New Weapon in Texas Coal Plant Fight,” Houston Chronicle, 25 October 2010.

²⁶ Tresaugue, op. cit. note 25.

²⁷ Ibid.; White Stallion plant defeated in Sierra Club, op. cit. note 25; quote from Sierra Club, “White Stallion Coal Proposal Cancelled,” press release (Bay City, TX: 15 February 2013).

²⁸ Sierra Club, “About Us,” at content.sierraclub.org/coal/about-the-campaign, viewed 12 September 2014; Sierra Club, 2012 Annual Report: Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign (Washington, DC: 2013); Sierra Club, 2013 Annual Report: Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign (Washington, DC: 2014); Joseph Kahn, “Cheney Promotes Increasing Supply as Energy Policy,” New York Times, 1 May 2001; defeated 183 proposed coal plants from Sierra Club, “Proposed Coal Plant Tracker,” at content.sierraclub.org/coal/environmentallaw/plant-tracker, viewed 10 January 2015; announced retirement of 180 plants from Sierra Club, op. cit. note 13.

²⁹ Oregon Sierra Club, “PGE, Sierra Club and Allies Settle Boardman Coal Emission Lawsuit,” at orsierraclub.wordpress.com/2011/07/20/pge-sierra-club-and-allies-settle-boardman-coal-emission-lawsuit, 20 July 2011; Portland General Electric, “PGE Asks DEQ to Allow Early Closure of Boardman Plant,” press release (Portland, OR: 2 April 2010); Government of Washington State, “Gov. Gregoire Announces Agreement with TransAlta,” press release (Olympia, WA: 5 March 2011); negotiations with many groups from Scott Martelle, “Kick Coal, Save Jobs Right Now,” Sierra Magazine, January/February 2012; Bruce Nilles quote from Dean Kuipers, “Last Coal Plant in Pacific Northwest to Shut Down Starting in 2020,” L.A. Times Greenspace blog, 6 March 2011.

³⁰ Donation and game changer from Bloomberg Philanthropies, “Bloomberg Philanthropies Commits $50 Million to Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign,” press release (New York: 21 July 2011).

³¹ Dennis Jacobe, “Americans Want More Emphasis on Solar, Wind, Natural Gas,” press release (Princeton, NJ: Gallup, 27 March 2013).

³² Partner with many organizations from “Winning: Lessons from the Fight Against Big Coal,” Sierra Rise, blog, at content.sierraclub.org/sierrarise/blog/2013/07/winning-lessons-fight-against-big-coal, 31 July 2013; civil rights groups from Sierra Club, 2013 Annual Report, op. cit. note 28, p. 4; example from National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, “Climate Justice Initiative,” at www.naacp.org/programs/entry/climate-justice, viewed 1 December 2014.

³³ Sierra Club, 2013 Annual Report, op. cit. note 28, pp. 8–9; Mary Anne Hitt, “’The Era of Coal is Over:’ Los Angeles Will Move Beyond Coal by 2025,” Compass, blog, at sierraclub.typepad.com/compass, 22 March 2013; Judith Lewis Mernit, “Repower LA,” Sierra Magazine, November/December 2013.

³⁴ Mary Anne Hitt and Bruce Nilles, “This Year, the Outlook Dimmed for Coal,” Compass, blog, at sierraclub.typepad.com/compass, 22 December 2010; campus coal tracking from Anastasia Schemkes, Sierra Club, e-mail to Emily Adams, Earth Policy Institute, 5 May 2014; Sierra Student Coalition, Campuses Beyond Coal Guidebook 2.0 (Washington, DC); University of Tennessee commitment from University of Tennessee, “Steam Plant Conversion Project Underway,” press release (Knoxville, TN: 10 April 2014).

³⁵ Schemkes, op. cit. note 34.

³⁶ Carbon Tracker Initiative, Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Evaluating Financial Risk to Coal Capital Expenditures (London: September 2014), p. 10; Christian Lelong et al., The Window for Thermal Coal Investment Is Closing (Goldman Sachs, July 2013), p. 1; Parker quote from Steven Mufson, “Coal’s Burnout: Have Investors Moved on to Cleaner Energy Sources?” Washington Post, 1 January 2011.

³⁷ Stowe Global Coal Index, “Historical Performance Data,” electronic database, at stowe.snetglobalindexes.com/indexdata-form.php, viewed 10 October 2014; Morningstar.com, “Independent Investment Research,” electronic database, at www.morningstar.com/, viewed 10 October 2014; profits shrinking from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR, electronic database, viewed 1 November 2014.

³⁸ Largest coal company from DOE, EIA, “Top Four U.S. Coal Companies Supplied More than Half of U.S. Coal Production in 2011,” Today in Energy, 2 October 2013; market value drop from 2006 to 2014 and cut from S&P from “Peabody Energy to be Removed from S&P 500 Index,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 12 September 2014; 17 percent fall versus 12 percent gain from Eric Platt, “Peabody Leads Miners Lower,” Financial Times, 8 July 2014.

³⁹ Morningstar.com, op. cit. note 37; Jacob Barker, “Investors Flee Arch Coal Debt, Driving Down its Bond Prices,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 31 October 2014; expected high Asian demand from Mario Parker and Aaron Clark, “Arch to Acquire International Coal for $3.4 Bill for Steelmaking Assets,” Bloomberg, 2 May 2014; took on debt thinking U.S. market and China market would stay hot from Liam Denning, “Arch Coal’s Bonds Shouldn’t Burn,” Wall Street Journal, 4 May 2014.

⁴⁰ Coal use from BP, op. cit. note 1; Michael D. Shear, “U.S. Says it Won’t Back New International Coal-Fired Power Plants,” New York Times, 29 October 2013; World Bank, “World Bank Group Sets Direction for Energy Sector Investments,” press release (Washington, DC: 16 July 2013); John McGarrity, “EU Finance Arm Curbs Loans to Coal-fired Power Plants,” Reuters, 24 July 2013.

⁴¹ Coal use from BP, op. cit. note 1; plans to build hundreds of new plants from Ailun Yang and Yiyun Cui, Global Coal Risk Assessment: Data Analysis and Market Research (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, November 2012); coal mining threatening forests, tigers from Ashish Fernandes, How Coal Mining is Trashing Tigerland (Bengaluru, India: Greenpeace-India, August 2012), p. 115; Modi expanding coal in India from Abheek Bhattacharya, “Coal India Remains Diamond in the Rough,” Wall Street Journal, 11 September 2014; displace thousands from Gardiner Harris, “Coal Rush in India Could Tip Balance on Climate Change,” New York Times, 17 November 2014; Nicole Ghio, Sierra Club, discussion with Emily Adams, Earth Policy Institute, 25 September 2014; Move Beyond Coal, Now! Victories on the Frontlines (Washington, DC: Sierra Club, September 2012), pp. 3–5.

⁴² Coalgate scandal from Vikas Baijaj and Jim Yardley, “Scandal Poses a Riddle: Will India Ever Be Able to Tackle Corruption?” New York Times, 15 September 2012; example of editorials from G. Sampath, “Ek Tha Tiger: The other Side of the Coal Scam,” DNA India, 25 August 2012, and from “The True Cost of ‘Coalgate,’” The Hindu, 19 August 2012; Supreme canceled and required new auctions from Puja Mehra, “Govt. to Bring Ordinance on Cancelled Coal Blocks,” The Hindu, 21 October 2014; James Crabtree, “India Court’s Coal Ruling Fuels Confusion,” Financial Times, 27 August 2014; James Crabtree, “India’s Supreme Court Declares More Than 200 Coal Mining Licences Illegal,” Financial Times, 25 August 2014.

⁴³ Bhattacharya, op. cit. note 41; Sarita Singh and Himangshu Watts, “Corruption, Inefficiency eat 25% of CIL Output: Sriprakash Jaiswal,” (New Delhi) Economic Times, 19 October 2011; “Greenpeace and Rainforest Action Network Call Out Bank of America for Major Stake in Coal India Deal,” press release (San Francisco: Rainforest Action Network, 4 September 2013); steps to end Coal India’s monopoly from Avantika Chilkoti and James Crabtree, “India Eyes End to State Coal Monopoly,” Financial Times, 24 October 2014.

⁴⁴ Smiti Mittal, “India Doubles Tax on Coal to Fund Clean Energy, Environmental Projects,” CleanTechnica, 20 July 2014; Modi as prime minister from Giles Parkinson, “Modi Accelerates India Solar Revolution, Doubles Tax on Coal,” Renew Economy, 11 July 2014; Modi as chief minister of Gujarat from Natalie Obiko Pearson and Debjit Chakraborty, “Modi Signals Solar Revolution for Power Market: Corporate India,” Bloomberg, 13 March 2014; Ryan Koronowski, “The World’s Biggest Coal Company is Turning to Solar Energy to Lower Its Utility Bill,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 6 June 2013; Rajesh Kumar Singh, “Coal India Said to Plan Building $1.2 Billion of Solar Projects,” Bloomberg, 22 September 2014.

⁴⁵ India wants to double its domestic coal production within five years from Alex Kirby, “India Set to Defy Warnings on Coal’s Climate Impact,” Climate News Network, 7 November 14; more on India’s goals to increase coal use from Gardiner Harris, “Coal Rush in India Could Tip Balance on Climate Change,” New York Times, 17 November 2014; third largest coal user from BP, op. cit. note 1; third largest carbon emissions from Global Carbon Project, op. cit. note 8; over 150,000 deaths by 2020 from coal expansion from Conservation Action Trust and Urban Emissions, Coal Kills: Health Impacts of Air Pollution from India’s Cal Expansion (Mumbai: 2014).

⁴⁶ BP, op. cit. note 1; some 80 percent of electricity from DOE, EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013: With Projections to 2040 (Washington, DC: July 2013), p. 103; Lauri Myllyvirta, “China’s Coal Use Might Just Have Dropped First Time This Century,” blog, Greenpeace East Asia, 7 August 2014; Damian Carrington, “China’s Coal Use Falls for the First Time this Century, Analysis Suggests,” (London) Guardian, 22 October 2014; Tim Buckley, “China’s Declining Coal Dependence is Evident in the Data,” Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Cleveland, OH: 6 January 2015.

⁴⁷ Public anger over pollutants from Juli Makinen, “China’s Battle Plans in War on Air Pollution Under Scrutiny,” Los Angeles Times, 10 September 2014; Li Shuo and Lauri Myllyvirta, The End of China’s Coal Boom (Greenpeace East Asia, April 2014), pp. 3, 9; North China Plain water table falling from Michael Ma, “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls,” South China Morning Post, 11 August 2001; Hal Bernton, “China’s Thirsty Coal Industry Guzzles Precious Water,” Seattle Times, 16 May 2014; Coco Liu, “Water Demands of Coal-fired Power Drying up Northern China,” ClimateWire, 25 March 2013; Lester R. Brown, “Can the World Feed China?” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 25 February 2014).

⁴⁸ Anthony Yuen et al., The Unimaginable: Peak Coal in China (Citi Research, September 2013); China wind from Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update 2013 (Brussels: 2014), pp. 17–18; solar PV capacity data from BP, op. cit. note 1.

⁴⁹ Three provinces and three cities pledge from Li and Myllyvirta, op. cit. note 47, p. 4; “China to Ban All Coal Use in Beijing by 2020,” Associated Press, 5 August 2014; David Nakamura and Steven Mufson, “China, U.S. Agree to Limit Greenhouse Gases,” Washington Post, 12 November 2014; Edward Wong, “In Step to Lower Carbon Emissions, China Will Place a Limit on Coal Use in 2020,” New York Times, 20 November 2014.

⁵⁰ Fayen Wong, “China to Again Levy Coal Import Tariffs after Nearly a Decade,” Reuters, 9 October 2014; China large coal producer from BP, op. cit. note 1; China is a leading importer from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject, viewed 8 July 2014, and from IEA, Coal Information 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. II–14; Scott Murdoch, “China’s Decision to Scrap Tariffs on Australian Coal Surprises Analysts,” Australian Business Review, 23 October 2014; Matt Siegel, “Australia, China Deepen Ties with Landmark Free Trade Deal,” Reuters, 17 November 2014; Oliver Milman, “China’s Ban on ‘Dirty’ Coal Could Cost Australian Mining Almost $1.5bn,” (London) Guardian, 16 September 2014.

⁵¹ IEA, op. cit. note 50, pp. IV–103–04, V–25; Australia’s coal use down from BP, op. cit. note 1; coal unpopular from The Climate Institute, “Preferred Energy Sources,” fact sheet (Sydney: July 2012); Gabrielle Chan, “Tony Abbott Says ‘Coal is Good for Humanity’ While Opening Mine,” (London) Guardian, 13 October 2014; Cole Latimer, “Coal Mining Increases in NSW,” Mining Australia, 5 August 2014; James Regan, “Australia’s Queensland Coal Exports Hit Record as Glut Mounts,” Reuters, 13 October 2014; Peter Hannam, “Australia Bets on Coal as Climate Policy Crumbles,” Sydney Morning Herald, 26 July 2014.

⁵² Coal companies looking to markets abroad from Pilita Clark, “The Toll on Coal,” Financial Times, 30 September 2013; U.S. coal exports going to China from U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, electronic database, at dataweb.usitc.gov, updated September 2014; overall U.S. coal exports DOE, EIA, Monthly Energy Review, November 2014.

⁵³ U.S. Department of the Interior, U. S. Geological Survey, “Assessment of Coal Geology, Resources, and Reserve Base in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: February 2013); BC exports from Manuel Quinones, “Coal: Swelling Exports Shine Spotlight on Port Pollution,” Greenwire, 29 June 2012; Seattle also exports coal from DOE, EIA, “Six Seaports Account for 94% of U.S. Coal Exports, which are Dominated by Coking Coal,” Today in Energy, 8 November 2011; western coal limited to Seattle and BC from DOE, EIA, “Europe and Asia Are the Leading Destinations for U.S. Coal Exports in 2012,” Today in Energy, 15 November 2012; 44 million tons from State of Washington, Department of Ecology, “Millennium Bulk Terminals Longview (MBTL) Proposal,” at www.ecy.wa.gov/geographic/millennium, viewed 14 September 2014; 54 million tons from State of Washington, Department of Ecology, “Gateway Pacific Terminal at Cherry Point Proposal,” at www.ecy.wa.gov/geographic/gatewaypacific, viewed 14 September 2014; Manuel Quinones, “Coal: Swelling Exports Shine Spotlight on Port Pollution,” Greenwire, 29 June 2012.

⁵⁴ Sierra Club working with Natural Resources Defense Council and others from Sierra Club, “Stopping Coal Exports,” at content.sierraclub.org/environmentallaw/category/stopping-coal-exports, viewed 14 September 2014; Cesia Kearns quote from Quinones, op. cit. note 53.

⁵⁵ Quinones, op. cit. note 53.

⁵⁶ David Steves, “Wall Street Giant Backs Away from Washington Coal Export Project,” OPB, 7 January 2014; Gulf from Tom Kenworthy, “Coal Could Suffer Major Setback In The Deep South,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/22/3579774/coal-exports-battle, 22 October 2014.

Chapter 4: Nuclear Power in Decline

¹ U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “A Short History of Nuclear Regulation, 1946-1999,” at www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/short-history.html, updated 29 March 2012; Joseph Romm, “Pandora’s Promise: Nuclear Power’s Trek From Too Cheap to Meter to Too Costly to Matter Much,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 17 June 2013; “A New Dawn for Nuclear Power?” The Economist, 19 May 2001; world generation from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), “Trend in Electricity Supplied,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/WorldTrendinElectricalProduction.aspx, updated 20 July 2014; U.S. nuclear generation compiled by Earth Policy Institute with 1960–2011 from “Electricity Net Generation: Total (All Sectors),” Table 7.2a in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review (Washington, DC: June 2014), and with 2012–14 from DOE, EIA, “Short Term Energy Outlook: Electricity,” at www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/electricity.cfm, updated 12 November 2014; generation in France and other countries from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); cost comparison from Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 8.0 (September 2014), p. 2; and from International Renewable Energy Agency, REthinking Energy 2014 (Abu Dhabi: September 2014), p. 27.

² Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library, Museum and Boyhood Home, “Atoms for Peace,” at www.eisenhower.archives.gov/research/online_documents/atoms_for_peace.html; construction activity and share of world generation from Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt, The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 (Paris, London, Washington, DC: Mycle Schneider Consulting, July 2014), pp. 6, 18; historical world nuclear generation data from Jiri Mandula, IAEA, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 16 May 2012.

³ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 17, 155.

⁴ World Energy Council and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Energy Perspective: Cost of Energy Technologies (London: World Energy Council, 2013), pp. 13, 18; Arnulf Grubler, “The Costs of the French Nuclear Scale-up: A Case of Negative Learning by Doing,” Energy Policy, vol. 38 (2010), pp. 5,174–88; “Bandwagons and Busts,” in Oliver Morton, “Special Report: Nuclear Energy—The Dream That Failed,” The Economist, 10 March 2012, pp. 14–16.

⁵ Nathan Ives, Steve McCabe, and Gary Gilmartin, Nuclear Renaissance and the Global Supply Chain (Washington, DC: Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions, August 2010); David Stanway, “China Says First Westinghouse Reactor Delayed Until at Least End-2015,” Reuters, 28 July 2014; Jussi Rosendahl, “UPDATE 2-Finland’s Nuclear Plant Start Delayed Again; Areva, TVO Trade Blame,” Reuters, 1 September 2014; Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 23–24, 32–33; Mycle Schneider Consulting, “Experts: Three Out of Four Nuclear Reactors Under Construction Around the Globe Are Behind Schedule,” press release (Paris and Washington, DC: 18 September 2014).

⁶ Mycle Schneider Consulting, op. cit. note 5; Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 23–24.

⁷ IAEA, PRIS, “Watts Bar-2,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/ReactorDetails.aspx?current=700, updated 14 October 2014; Scott DiSavino, “UPDATE 3-TVA Ups Watts Bar Reactor Cost to $4.5 Bln, Online ‘15,” Reuters, 5 April 2012; Matthew L. Wald, “In Tennessee, Time Comes for a Nuclear Plant Four Decades in the Making,” New York Times, 19 October 2014.

⁸ Ray Henry, “Delays Could Grow at Plant Vogtle Nuclear Plant and Cause Price to Rise $2 Million Per Day, Government Monitors Say,” Florida Times-Union, 23 June 2014; Ray Henry, “Price Tag for South Carolina Nuclear Plant Could Grow by $1B,” Associated Press, 2 October 2014; Amory B. Lovins, “The Economics of a US Civilian Nuclear Phase-out,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 69, no. 2 (March/April 2013), pp. 44–65; Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt, The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 (Paris, London, Kyoto: Mycle Schneider Consulting, July 2013), pp. 37–41; Mark Cooper, Public Risk, Private Profit; Ratepayer Cost, Utility Imprudence (South Royalton, VT: Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont Law School, March 2013), p. 1.

⁹ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 20, 40–41, 156; Michael Stothard, “EDF in Fresh Delay for Flagship Nuclear Plant,” Financial Times, 18 November 2014; Jussi Rosendahl, “UPDATE 1-Finnish Govt Rejects Olkiluoto 4 Nuclear Permit Extension,” Reuters, 25 September 2014.

¹⁰ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 48-52; Alex Barker and Pilita Clark, “Brussels Backs Hinkley Point C as Cost Forecasts Soar,” Financial Times, 8 October 2014.

¹¹ Credit Suisse, “Nuclear…The Middle Age Dilemma? Facing Declining Performance, Higher Costs, Inevitable Mortality,” investor presentation, 19 February 2013, at www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/SPSG/Lists/Events/DispForm.aspx?ID=485.

¹² DOE, EIA, “Lower Power Prices and High Repair Costs Drive Nuclear Retirements,” Today in Energy, 2 July 2013; Rebecca Smith, “Vermont Nuclear Plant’s Closure Shows Impact of Cheap Gas,” Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2013; Matthew L. Wald, “Nuclear Plants, Old and Uncompetitive, Are Closing Earlier Than Expected,” New York Times, 14 June 2013; Entergy, “Vermont Yankee Decommissioning: Frequently Asked Questions,” at vydecommissioning.com/faqs, viewed 2 December 2014; Jess Bidgood, “Vermont Yankee Nuclear Plant Begins Slow Process of Closing,” New York Times, 4 January 2015.

¹³ Mark Cooper, Renaissance in Reverse: Competition Pushes Aging U.S. Nuclear Reactors to the Brink of Economic Abandonment (South Royalton, VT: Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont Law School, 18 July 2013), pp. 24–25, 35–37; Credit Suisse, op. cit. note 11; Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Washington, DC: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, August 2014), pp. viii–ix; GTM Research and Solar Energy Industries Association, U.S. Solar Market Insight Report: 2013 Year-in-Review, Executive Summary (Washington, DC, and Boston: 2014), p. 6.

¹⁴ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, p. 8; Jan Hromadko, “Germany’s E.ON to Shut Down Nuclear Reactor Early,” Wall Street Journal, 28 March 2014.

¹⁵ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 54–58; Paul Lund, “Nuclear Generation’s Effect on Credit Quality: Moody’s Perspective on Operating Risks and New Build,” presentation at International WPNE Workshop on the Role of Electricity Price Stability and Long-Term Financing for Nuclear New Build, Paris, 19 September 2013.

¹⁶ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 54–58; “German Power Operators: Looking for Lifelines,” The Economist, 7 June 2014; share prices for EDF and Areva from interactive charts available at Financial Times, “Markets Data,” at http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Overview, viewed 3 December 2014; Areva largest builder from World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in France,” at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/France, updated 25 November 2014.

¹⁷ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 20–21; Wald, op. cit. note 12.

¹⁸ “Calif. Nuclear Plant to Cost $4.4 Billion to Dismantle,” CBS News, 2 August 2014; Guy Chazan, “UK Nuclear Clean-up Bill Rises by £6.6bn,” Financial Times, 23 June 2014; Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Annual Report and Accounts—Financial Year: April 2013 to March 2014 (Moor Row, U.K.: 2014), pp. 10–13.

¹⁹ World Nuclear Association, “Radioactive Waste Management,” at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/Radioactive-Waste-Management, updated September 2014; Mark Gaffigan, “Nuclear Waste: Disposal Challenges and Lessons Learned from Yucca Mountain,” testimony before U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Environment and the Economy, Committee on Energy and Commerce (Washington, DC: Government Accountability Office, 1 June 2011); nine states based on Scott Hendrick, “State Restrictions on New Nuclear Power Facility Construction,” National Conference of State Legislatures, at www.ncsl.org/issues-research/env-res/states-restrictions-on-new-nuclear-power-facility.aspx, updated December 2010.

²⁰ “Yucca Mountain Cost Estimate Climbs,” Nuclear Engineering International, 22 August 2008; Todd Garvey, Closing Yucca Mountain: Litigation Associated with Attempts to Abandon the Planned Nuclear Waste Repository (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 4 June 2012); Ralph Vartabedian, “Tiny Nuclear Waste Fee Added Up to Billions,” Los Angeles Times, 15 May 2014.

²¹ Gaffigan, op. cit. note 19; “Reid Moves to Ensure Yucca Mountain Stays Dead,” Associated Press, 16 September 2014.

²² Meeyoung Cho, “As Nuclear Waste Piles Up, South Korea Faces Storage Crisis,” Reuters, 12 October 2014.

²³ World Nuclear Association, “Processing of Used Nuclear Fuel,” at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Fuel-Recycling/Processing-of-Used-Nuclear-Fuel, updated September 2014; Union of Concerned Scientists, “Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive,” at www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/making-nuclear-power-safer/handling-nuclear-waste/nuclear-reprocessing.html, viewed 2 December 2014.

²⁴ Dana Sacchetti, “Generation Next,” IAEA Bulletin, vol. 49, no. 2 (March 2008), pp. 64–65; International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris: 2011), pp. 463–64; Michael Stothard, “Europe’s Nuclear Sector Looks Worldwide to Keep Skills Sharp,” Financial Times, 7 May 2014; Nathan Ives, Steve McCabe, and Gary Gilmartin, Nuclear Renaissance and the Global Supply Chain (Washington, DC: Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions, August 2010).

²⁵ National Research Council, Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident for Improving Safety of U.S. Nuclear Plants (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2014), pp. 82, 85–91; IEA, op. cit. note 24, p. 449.

²⁶ National Research Council, op. cit. note 25, pp. 90–91.

²⁷ Ibid., pp. 15, 85–91; IEA, op. cit. note 24, p. 449.

²⁸ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, p. 9.

²⁹ Ibid., pp. 9, 59, 68–69; “Status of the Nuclear Reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant,” New York Times, at www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/world/asia/reactors-status.html, updated 29 April 2011.

³⁰ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, p. 9, 59, 60, 72.

³¹ Mari Saito, Kiyoshi Takenaka, and James Topham, “Insight: Japan’s ‘Long War’ to Shut Down Fukushima,” Reuters, 8 March 2013.

³² Stephanie Cooke, “After Fukushima, Does Nuclear Power Have a Future?” New York Times, 10 October 2011; IEA, op. cit. note 24, pp. 451–54; “ANALYSIS: Future of Nuclear Energy Still Clouded Even As All Reactors Go Offline,” Asahi Shimbun, 15 September 2013; Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, p. 12.

³³ Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, p. 16; Ben Sharples and Tsuyoshi Inajima, “Japanese Public Seen as Biggest Obstacle to Nuke Restart,” Bloomberg, 27 August 2014; Mari Iwata, “Japan Industry Minister Leaves Key Term Unclear in Nuclear Debate,” Wall Street Journal, 21 October 2014; Mari Iwata, “Japan Nuclear Reactors Approved for Restart,” Wall Street Journal, 7 November 2014.

³⁴ DOE, EIA, “Japan,” Country Analysis Brief, at www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, updated 31 July 2014; Ari Phillips, “Post-Fukushima Japan Turns to Offshore Wind and Solar,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 9 September 2014; REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), p. 47.

³⁵ IEA, op. cit. note 24, pp. 452, 454; “Germany to Phase Out Nuclear Power by 2022,” Spiegel Online, 30 May 2011.

³⁶ James Kanter, “Switzerland Decides on Nuclear Phase-Out,” New York Times, 25 May 2011; Duncan Kennedy, “Italy’s Atomic Shift on Nuclear Power,” BBC News, 11 June 2011; “Italy Nuclear: Berlusconi Accepts Referendum Blow,” BBC News, 14 June 2011; “Belgium Plans to Phase Out Nuclear Power,” BBC News, 31 October 2011; Hugh Carnegy, “France to Set Nuclear Power Cap,” Financial Times, 18 June 2014.

³⁷ U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Backgrounder on the Three Mile Island Accident,” at www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html, updated 25 April 2014.

³⁸ Ibid.; cleanup cost from World Nuclear Association, “Three Mile Island Accident,” at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Three-Mile-Island-accident, updated January 2012.

³⁹ U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Backgrounder on Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident,” at www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/chernobyl-bg.html, updated 25 April 2014; World Nuclear Association, “Sequence of Events: Chernobyl Accident Appendix 1,” at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Appendices/Chernobyl-Accident---Appendix-1--Sequence-of-Events, updated November 2009; U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, “The Chernobyl Accident: UNSCEAR’s assessments of the radiation effects,” at www.unscear.org/unscear/en/chernobyl.html, updated16 July 2012; IAEA, “Frequently Asked Chernobyl Questions,” at www.iaea.org/newscenter/features/chernobyl-15/cherno-faq.shtml, viewed 8 October 2014; World Health Organization, “Chernobyl at 25th Anniversary: Frequently Asked Questions,” fact sheet (Geneva: 23 April 2011).

⁴⁰ Henry Fountain, “Chernobyl: Capping a Catastrophe,” New York Times, 27 April 2014; IAEA, op. cit. note 39.

⁴¹ D. Kinley III, ed., Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts and Recommendations to the Governments of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, The Chernobyl Forum 2003–2005, 2^nd rev. (Vienna: IAEA, Division of Public Information, 2006); Mary Mycio, “How Many People Have Really Been Killed by Chernobyl?” Slate, 26 April 2013; Alexey V. Yablokov, Vassily B. Nesterenko, and Alexey V. Nesterenko, “Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1,181 (December 2009); World Health Organization, “Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident: An Overview,” at www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/chernobyl/backgrounder/en, updated April 2006; Christopher Mims, “Chernobyl’s Real Horror Show Isn’t the Radiation, It’s the Economics,” The Atlantic, 30 May 2012.

⁴² Kinley III, op. cit. note 41, pp. 32–33.

⁴³ Fountain, op. cit. note 40.

⁴⁴ U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Backgrounder on Nuclear Insurance and Disaster Relief,” at www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/nuclear-insurance.html, updated 16 July 2014.

⁴⁵ Ibid.; Steve Hargreaves, “Nuclear Industry Shielded from Big Disaster Costs,” CNNMoney, 25 March 2011; Michele Boyd, Price-Anderson Act: The Billion Dollar Bailout for Nuclear Power Mishaps (Washington, DC: Public Citizen, September 2004), p. 2; Michele Boyd, “Combating Global Climate Change: The Case Against Nuclear Power,” Harvard International Review, 13 February 2007.

⁴⁶ Amory B. Lovins, “The Economics of a US Civilian Nuclear Phase-out,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 69, no. 2 (March/April 2013), pp. 44–65.

⁴⁷ Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Report Annual Market Update 2013 (Brussels: 2014), p. 21; solar capacity growth from BP, op. cit. note 1; IAEA, Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2014 Edition (Vienna: June 2014), p. 20.

⁴⁸ Electricity generation from wind and nuclear power from BP, op. cit. note 1; Global Wind Energy Council, op. cit. note 47, pp. 42–45.

⁴⁹ Carnegy, op. cit. note 36; Michel Rose, “French Energy Transition Law to Cut Red Tape on Renewables,” Reuters, 14 October 2014; current renewable electricity share from REN21, op. cit. note 34, p. 119; buildup of wind from Global Wind Energy Council, op. cit. note 47, pp. 50–51.

⁵⁰ Lovins, op. cit. note 46.

⁵¹ IAEA, PRIS, “Operational & Long-Term Shutdown Reactors,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/OperationalReactorsByCountry.aspx, updated 2 December 2014; IAEA, PRIS, “Under Construction Reactors,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstructionReactorsByCountry.aspx, updated 2 December 2014; world nuclear trend from Schneider and Froggatt, op. cit. note 2, pp. 13, 23–24; Lovins, op. cit. note 46.

Chapter 5: The Solar Revolution

¹ John Perlin, Let It Shine: The 6,000-year Story of Solar Energy (Novato, CA: New World Library, 2013), pp. 310–16; John Perlin, “The Invention of the Solar Cell,” Popular Science, 22 April 2014.

² Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen, Power Surge (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1994), p. 155.

³ Ibid., pp.157, 167; Sharp Solar, “Over 50 Years of History,” at www.sharp-solar.com/en/history, viewed 8 November 2014; Kyocera, “History of Kyocera Solar Power,” at global.kyocera.com/solarexpo/solar_power/system.html, viewed 8 November 2014; National Research Council (NRC), Optics and Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2013), pp. 189–91; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE), “The History of Solar,” fact sheet, at www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/solar_timeline.pdf.

⁴ NRC, op. cit, note 3, pp. 189–91; historical PV production data compiled by Earth Policy Institute with 1995–99 data from Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2004, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2005), with 2000 data from Prometheus Institute, “23rd Annual Data Collection—Final,” PVNews, vol. 26, no. 4 (April 2007), pp. 8–9, and with 2001–02 data from Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, “25th Annual Data Collection Results: PV Production Explodes in 2008,” PVNews, vol. 28, no. 4 (April 2009), pp. 15–18.

⁵ Justin Gillis, “Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind,” New York Times, 13 September 2014; Heinrich Böll Foundation, “Renewable Energy Act With Feed-in Tariffs,” at energytransition.de/2012/10/renewable-energy-act-with-feed-in-tariffs, viewed 8 November 2014; Amory B. Lovins, “How Opposite Energy Policies Turned the Fukushima Disaster into a Loss for Japan and a Win for Germany,” Forbes, 28 June 2014.

⁶ Gillis, op. cit. note 5; Geoffrey Carr, “Sunny Uplands,” The Economist, 21 November 2012; Keith Bradsher, “Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China,” New York Times, 4 October 2012; REN21, Renewables 2013 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2013), p. 47; manufacturing data compiled by Earth Policy Institute from GTM Research, PV Cell Module Production Data, electronic database, updated June 2014.

⁷ Price in 1972 from Citi Research, Rising Sun: Implications for US Utilities (New York: 8 August 2013), p. 17; price as of 2014 from Charlene Fowler, “Chinese Module Prices in US to Rise to Highest Levels Since Q2 2012,” Greentech Media, 6 August 2014; and from “PvXchange Module Price Index—October 2014: European Survival Strategies,” PV Magazine, at www.pv-magazine.com/investors/module-price-index, viewed 5 December 2014; typical U.S. rooftop system from Galen Barbose, Samantha Weaver, and Naïm Darghouth, Tracking the Sun VII: The Installed Price of Photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013 (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, September 2014), p. 11.

⁸ Price drop from International Renewable Energy Agency, REthinking Energy 2014 (Abu Dhabi: 2014), p. 34; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); DOE, EERE, “Photovoltaic Cell Basics,” at energy.gov/eere/energybasics/articles/photovoltaic-cell-basics, updated 26 August 2013; end-2013 PV capacity generation potential of 160 terawatt-hours from European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014–2018 (Brussels: 2014), p. 17; German residential electricity demand of 137 TWh from “Electricity Consumption of Households,” table in European Commission, Eurostat, electronic database, at epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdpc310&plugin=1, updated 28 May 2014, converted from tons oil equivalent using International Energy Agency (IEA), “Unit Converter,” at www.iea.org/statistics/resources/unitconverter; population from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, updated 14 April 2014; Vishal Shah, Jerimiah Booream-Phelps, and Susie Min, 2014 Outlook: Let the Second Gold Rush Begin (New York: Deutsche Bank Markets Research, January 2014).

⁹ IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris: 2011), p. 546; IEA, Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014, executive summary (Paris: 2014), p. 13.

¹⁰ Nathan S. Lewis and Daniel G. Nocera, “Powering the Planet: Chemical Challenges in Solar Energy Utilization,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 103, no. 43 (24 October 2006), pp. 15,729–35.

¹¹ Mary Ann Kenney, Enbridge Inc., e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 16 September 2010; Kyocera Corporation, “KYOCERA, Four Other Companies Reach Basic Agreement on Development Plan for 430-Megawatt Solar Power Project,” press release (Kyoto: 12 June 2014); Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), “Major Solar Projects in the United States: Operating, Under Construction, or Under Development,” table at www.seia.org/research-resources/major-solar-projects-list, updated 15 August 2014.

¹² Shah, Booream-Phelps, and Min, op. cit. note 8; Italy solar share of electricity from BP, op. cit. note 8.

¹³ Shah, Booream-Phelps, and Min, op. cit. note 8; solar resource comparison from Kristen Ardani and Robert Margolis, 2010 Solar Technologies Report (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2011), p. 53; number of systems from German Solar Industry Association, “Statistic Data on the German Solar Power (Photovoltaic) Industry,” fact sheet (Berlin: April 2014); solar capacity and share of electricity from BP, op. cit. note 8; 2014 share from Bruno Burger, Electricity Production from Solar and Wind in Germany in 2014 (Freiburg: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, 29 December 2014).

¹⁴ BP, op. cit. note 8; European Photovoltaic Industry Association, op. cit. note 8, pp. 9–11; REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), pp. 47, 76–78; Bentham Paulos, “Are the Legacy Costs of Germany’s Solar Feed-In Tariff Fixable?” Greentech Media, 4 June 2014; Bentham Paulos, “Germany’s Renewable Energy Law is About to Look More American,” Greentech Media, 11 June 2014; “China Sets Solar Power Target for 2014,” Xinhua, 5 August 2014.

¹⁵ Fayen Wong and Chen Yixin, “China Doubles Solar Power Target to 10 GW by 2015—Paper,” Reuters, 5 May 2011; “China Targets 70 Gigawatts of Solar Power to Cut Coal Reliance,” Bloomberg, 16 May 2014; Shah, Booream-Phelps, and Min, op. cit. note 8.

¹⁶ DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Australia,” country analysis brief, at www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=AS, updated 28 August 2014; Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, 2014 Australian Energy Update (Canberra: July 2014), pp. 13–15; REN21, op. cit. note 14, p. 47.

¹⁷ Jess Hill, “The Price of Power,” ABC Radio National, 27 April 2014.

¹⁸ Ibid.; Giles Parkinson, “Solar Has Won. Even If Coal Were Free to Burn, Power Stations Couldn’t Compete,” (London) Guardian, 6 July 2014; Australian Energy Market Commission, 2013 Residential Electricity Price Trends (Sydney: 2013), p. 12.

¹⁹ BP, op. cit. note 8; REN21, op. cit. note 14, p. 47; Chico Harlan, “In Japan, New Policy Spurs Solar Power Boom,” Washington Post, 4 June 2013; Junko Movellan, “New Solar Homes: Japanese Homebuilders Helping the Fight for Energy Independence,” Renewable Energy World, 29 July 2013.

²⁰ Bridge to India, India Solar Handbook June 2014 (New Delhi: 2014), p. 5; William P. Hirshman, “India’s Sun Takes Center Stage,” Photon International (December 2009), pp. 24–27; William P. Hirshman, “Mission Possible? Not Yet,” Photon International (June 2010), pp. 36–38; Lucy Woods, “India to Boost National Solar Target to 100GW by 2022—Reports,” PV-Tech, 17 November 2014.

²¹ A. N. Srivastava, “Draft Scheme for Development of Solar Parks and Ultra Mega Solar Power Projects—Circulation for Comments Reg.,” memorandum, Government of India, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, New Delhi, 1 August 2014; Government of India, Press Information Bureau, “Implementation of Scheme for Development of Solar Parks and Ultra Mega Solar Power Projects,” press release (New Delhi: 10 December 2014); Damian Carrington, “Can Narendra Modi Bring the Solar Power Revolution to India?” (London) Guardian, 30 September 2014.

²² Smiti Mittal, “India Doubles Tax on Coal to Fund Clean Energy, Environmental Projects,” CleanTechnica, 20 July 2014; Lucy Woods, “India Uses Coal Tax to Help Fund 21GW of New Solar Development,” PV-Tech, 11 December 2014.

²³ Goals and capacity factors from REN21, op. cit. note 14, pp. 64, 126; current electricity needs from BP, op. cit. note 8.

²⁴ BP, op. cit. note 8; GTM Research and SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight Report: Q3 2014, executive summary (Washington, DC, and Boston: 2014), p. 6.

²⁵ Larry Sherwood, U.S. Solar Market Trends 2013 (Latham, NY: Interstate Renewable Energy Council, 2014), pp. 18–21; Evan Halper, “Rules Prevent Solar Panels in Many States with Abundant Sunlight,” Los Angeles Times, 9 August 2014.

²⁶ GTM Research and SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight Report: 2013 Year-in-Review, executive summary (Washington, DC, and Boston: 2014), p. 5; GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 24, pp. 13–14; Brad Plumer, “Solar Power Keeps Getting Cheaper—But Not for the Reasons You’d Expect,” Vox, 16 October 2014.

²⁷ Bryan Bollinger and Kenneth Gillingham, “Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Panels,” Marketing Science, vol. 31, no. 6 (20 September 2012), pp. 900–12; Marcello Graziano and Kenneth Gillingham, “Spatial Patterns of Solar Photovoltaic System Adoption: The Influence of Neighbors and the Built Environment,” Journal of Economic Geography (7 October 2014); Brad Plumer, “Solar Power is Contagious: Installing Panels Often Means Your Neighbors Will Too,” Vox, 24 October 2014; Kevin Dennehy, “Why Solar Adoption Can be Contagious,” Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies News, 3 December 2014.

²⁸ GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 26, p. 4; GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 24, p. 6.

²⁹ SEIA, “Third-Party Solar Financing,” at www.seia.org/policy/finance-tax/third-party-financing, viewed 9 December 2014; Mike Munsell, “Market Share for Leasing Residential Solar to Peak in 2014,” Greentech Media, 23 June 2014.

³⁰ Daniel Cusick, “Solar Home Market Begins to Capture Mainstream Buyers,” ClimateWire, 17 June 2014; McGraw Hill Construction, Green Multifamily and Single Family Homes: Growth in a Recovering Market (Bedford, MA: 2014), p. 48.

³¹ “2013 Builder 100,” Builder Magazine, at www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2013, viewed 17 November 2014; Gillis, op. cit. note 5; Justin Doom, “Solar Panel is Next Granite Countertop for Homebuilders,” Bloomberg, 11 September 2013; Daniel Cusick, “Solar Home Market Begins to Capture Mainstream Buyers,” ClimateWire, 17 June 2014; Casey Meserve, “Solar Enjoys Its Time in the Sun,” TecHome Builder, 4 September 2014.

³² SEIA, “Shared Renewables/Community Solar,” at www.seia.org/policy/distributed-solar/shared-renewablescommunity-solar, viewed 17 November 2014.

³³ Liam Denning, “Lights Flicker for Utilities,” Wall Street Journal, 22 December 2013; “How to Lose Half a Trillion Euros,” The Economist, 12 October 2013; National Public Radio, “Analyst: Utilities Challenged by Spread of Solar,” Here & Now, 14 August 2013.

³⁴ Denning, op. cit. note 33; Chris Nelder, “Can the Utility Industry Survive the Energy Transition?” Greentech Media, 9 April 2013; “How to Lose Half a Trillion Euros,” op. cit. note 33.

³⁵ Denning, op. cit. note 33; “Looking for Lifelines,” The Economist, 5 June 2014; Bentham Paulos, “RWE’s Thomas Birr on Corporate Strategy in a Changing German Electricity Ecosystem,” POWER Magazine, 1 July 2014.

³⁶ Alex Morales, “‘Stranded Assets’: Will Efforts to Counter Warming Render Energy Reserves Worthless?” Washington Post, 5 December 2014; “Germany to Phase Out Nuclear Power by 2022,” Spiegel Online, 30 May 2011; Tino Andresen, “RWE Suffers First Loss Since Founding of German Republic,” Bloomberg, 4 March 2014; Stephen Lacey, “Germany’s Biggest Utility, E.ON, is Divesting Fully from Centralized Power Plants,” Greentech Media, 1 December 2014; Christoph Steitz, “UPDATE 3-German Utility E.ON to Split in Two in Major Overhaul,” Reuters, 30 November 2014.

³⁷ Stephen Lacey, “Rise of the Prosumer: Will Homeowners Ever be More Important Than Power Plants?” Greentech Media, 28 June 2014; Paulos, op. cit. note 35; Christoph Steitz and Tom Käckenhoff, “RWE Eyes Bigger Role in Energy Saving Business,” Reuters, 13 April 2014.

³⁸ Lacey, op. cit. note 36; Steitz, op. cit. note 36; Seth Masia, “Allies Emerge for Solar, State by State,” Solar Today, 16 December 2013.

³⁹ Tracy Rucinski and Byron Kaye, “INSIGHT—Taxes, Fees: The Worldwide Battle Between Utilities and Solar,” Reuters, 28 September 2014; Giles Parkinson, “Solar Wars: Utilities Take on Households Over Rooftop PV,” RenewEconomy, 19 May 2014; Brad Plumer, “Solar Power is Growing So Fast That Older Energy Companies are Trying to Stop It,” Vox, 29 September 2014; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency, “Glossary,” at www.dsireusa.org/glossary, viewed 11 November 2014.

⁴⁰ David Biello, “Solar Wars,” Scientific American, vol. 311 (November 2014), pp. 66–71; Plumer, op. cit. note 39; Steven Mufson and Tom Hamburger, “A Battle is Looming Over Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuel Interests Are Losing,” Washington Post, 25 April 2014; Stephen Lacey, “‘Stealth Business Lobbyist’ Plans 2014 Offensive Against Solar Net Metering,” Greentech Media, 21 November 2013; Herman K. Trabish, “ALEC Coordinates New Attacks on Renewables Mandates and Net Metering,” Greentech Media, 24 February 2014.

⁴¹ James Mandel, “Why the Barclays Downgrade of the Entire U.S. Electricity Sector Means an Upgrade for Consumers,” RMI Outlet, at blog.rmi.org, 10 June 2014.

⁴² Eric Wesoff, “Austin Energy Switches from SunEdison to Recurrent for 5-Cent Solar,” Greentech Media, 16 May 2014; Austin Energy, Austin Energy Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2025: An Update of the 2020 Plan (Austin, TX: December 2014), p. 3; Austin Energy, “Renewable Power Generation,” at austinenergy.com/wps/portal/ae/about/environment/renewable-power-generation, viewed 14 September 2014; Christian Roselund, “Austin, Texas Plans for at Least 950 MW of Solar PV by 2025,” PV Magazine, 12 December 2014.

⁴³ Amel Ahmed, “Major Solar Energy Plan for Minnesota Wins Support Over Gas,” Al Jazeera America, 2 January 2014; Geronimo Energy, “Geronimo Energy Team,” at www.geronimoenergy.com/team/index.html, viewed 14 September 2014; Turner Enterprises, Inc., “Turner Renewable Energy,” at www.tedturner.com/renewable-energy, viewed 18 November 2014; Tina Davis and Ehren Goossens, “Buffett Utility Buys $2.5 Billion SunPower Solar Projects,” Bloomberg, 2 January 2013; Todd Woody, “Warren Buffett in $2 Billion Solar Deal,” Forbes, 2 January 2013.

⁴⁴ Davis and Goossens, op. cit. note 43; Woody, op. cit. note 43; MidAmerican Energy, “One Millionth Solar Module Installed at Solar Star Projects,” press release (Des Moines, IA: 30 May 2014); Eric Wesoff, “Topaz, the Largest Solar Plant in the World, is Now Fully Operational,” Greentech Media, 24 November 2014; MidAmerican Solar, “Topaz Solar Farm,” at www.midamericanrenewablesllc.com./topaz_solar.aspx, viewed 9 December 2014.

⁴⁵ Wesoff, op. cit. note 44; NRG Energy, “NRG Energy and MidAmerican Solar Complete Agua Caliente, the World’s Largest Fully-Operational Solar Photovoltaic Facility,” press release (Carlsbad, CA and Phoenix, AZ: 29 April 2014); GTM Research, PV Cell Module Production Data, electronic database, updated June 2014.

⁴⁶ Turner Enterprises, Inc., op. cit. note 43; Southern Company, “Southern Company Subsidiary and Turner Renewable Energy Acquire New Mexico’s Largest Solar Facility,” press release (Atlanta, GA: 23 May 2014); Southern Company, “Southern Power: Overview,” at www.southerncompany.com/about-us/our-business/southern-power, viewed 9 December 2014; First Solar, “First Solar Sells 139-Megawatt Campo Verde Solar Project,” press release (Tempe, AZ: 23 April 2013).

⁴⁷ DOE, “2014: The Year of Concentrating Solar Power,” fact sheet (Washington, DC, May 2014); DOE, EERE, “Linear Concentrator System Basics for Concentrating Solar Power,” at energy.gov/eere/energybasics/articles/linear-concentrator-system-basics-concentrating-solar-power, updated 20 August 2013; SEIA, “Concentrating Solar Power,” at www.seia.org/policy/solar-technology/concentrating-solar-power, viewed 11 December 2014.

⁴⁸ CSP Today, CSP Today Global Tracker, electronic database, at social.csptoday.com/tracker/projects, viewed 19 May 2014; SEIA, “Major Solar Projects in the United States: Operating, Under Construction, or Under Development,” at www.seia.org/research-resources/major-solar-projects-list, updated 15 August 2014.

⁴⁹ Abengoa, “Solana,” fact sheet (Seville, Spain: September 2013); DOE, “2014: The Year of Concentrating Solar Power,” op. cit. note 47; Brightsource Energy, Inc., “What Is Ivanpah?” at www.ivanpahsolar.com/about, viewed 15 September 2014; CSP Today, op. cit. note 48; Natalie Obiko Pearson, “Godawari Starts Asia’s Biggest Solar-Thermal Power Plant,” Bloomberg, 14 June 2014; State Grid Corporation of China, “China’s First Concentrating Solar Power Project Connected to the Grid,” at www.sgcc.com.cn/ywlm/mediacenter/industrynews/07/295307.shtml, 26 July 2013.

⁵⁰ “Abengoa Kicks-off Construction for ‘Cerro Dominador’ CSP Plant in Chile,” CSP World, 10 July 2014.

⁵¹ Dexter Gauntlett, “Concentrating Solar Thermal Market Losing Steam?” Navigant Research Blog, at www.navigantresearch.com/tag/concentrating-solar-power, 9 September 2013; Lisa Cohn and Reid Smith, “Investors Favour PV over CSP,” Sun & Wind Energy, vol. 4 (2011), pp. 34–36; Ken Wells and Mark Chediak, “Solar Energy Shakeout: Concentrating vs. Photovoltaic,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 14 November 2013; DOE, EERE, SunShot Program, “Concentrating Solar Power,” at energy.gov/eere/sunshot/concentrating-solar-power, viewed 11 December 2014.

⁵² IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 74; “Power to the Poor,” The Economist, 10 February 2001, pp. 21–23; Robert H. Williams, “Facilitating Widespread Deployment of Wind and Photovoltaic Technologies,” in Energy Foundation, 2001 Annual Report (San Francisco: 2002), pp. 20–22.

⁵³ Surabhi Rajagopal, SELCO Solar, conversation with and e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 7 October and 18 and 25 November 2014; Sreyamsa Bairiganjan et al., Power to the People: Investing in Clean Energy for the Base of the Pyramid in India (Washington, DC: Centre for Development Finance and World Resources Institute, 2010), p. 52.

⁵⁴ Emissions include kerosene and other fuel lamps, from IEA, Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), pp. 201–02; Kuwait oil production from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, at www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm, viewed 2 October 2014; kerosene price rising from Dexter Gauntlett, “Solar PV Helps Eliminate Kerosene Lamps,” Navigant Research Blog, at www.navigantresearch.com/blog, 20 August 2014.

⁵⁵ Natalie Obiko Pearson, “Solar Cheaper Than Diesel Making India’s Mittal Believer: Energy,” Bloomberg, 24 January 2012; Bridge to India, “Weekly Update: Solar PV Market for Diesel Abatement in India is Preparing for New Investments,” at www.bridgetoindia.com/blog/weekly-update-solar-pv-market-for-diesel-abatement-in-india-is-preparing-for-new-investments, viewed 11 December 2014; Natalie Obiko Pearson and Ganesh Nagarajan, “Solar Water Pumps Wean Farmers from India’s Archaic Grid,” Bloomberg News, 8 February 2014.

⁵⁶ World Bank, “Bangladesh Receives $78.4 Million to Install an Additional 480,000 Solar Home Systems,” press release (Dhaka: 30 June 2014).

⁵⁷ Sybille de La Hamaide, “Bangladesh Seeks World Bank Loan for Solar Power,” Reuters, 26 April 2007.

⁵⁸ Rooftop solar water heater area calculated using capacity data from Franz Mauthner and Werner Weiss, Solar Heat Worldwide: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2012 (Gleisdorf, Austria: IEA, Solar Heating & Cooling Programme, June 2014), p. 9; number of households calculated using conversion factor from Li Junfeng, China Renewable Energy Industries Association, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2010; Ryan Hodum, “Kunming Heats Up as China’s ‘Solar City,’” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 5 June 2007); David Pierson, “China, Green? In the Case of Solar Water Heating, Yes,” Los Angeles Times, 6 September 2009; cost from Kate Galbraith, “Interest in Solar Water Heating Spreads Globally,” New York Times, 3 September 2014.

⁵⁹ Ole Pilgaard, Solar Thermal Action Plan for Europe (Brussels: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation, 2007); Janet L. Sawin, “Solar Industry Stays Hot,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2006–2007 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006); share of combination systems in Austria and Germany from REN21, op. cit. note 14, p. 53.

⁶⁰ REN21, op. cit. note 14, p. 53; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency, “Hawaii: Solar Water Heating Requirement for New Residential Construction,” at www.dsireusa.org/incentives/incentive.cfm?Incentive_Code=HI13R, updated 28 August 2014.

⁶¹ REN21, op. cit. note 14, p. 53.

Chapter 6: The Age of Wind

¹ Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update 2013 (Brussels: 2014), p. 21; solar capacity from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); number of U.S. homes calculated using average annual residential electricity consumption of 10,837 kWh from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Electricity Does an American Home Use?” at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3, updated 10 January 2014, with 32 percent capacity factor for wind power from “Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Not Primarily Using Fossil Fuels, January 2008-September 2014,” Table 6.7.B in DOE, EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Washington, DC: November 2014), and with 20 percent capacity factor for solar power from “Status of Renewable Energy Technologies: Characteristics and Costs,” Table 2 in REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), p. 64.

² GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 17–18; Canadian Wind Energy Association, “Powering Canada’s Future,” fact sheet (Ottawa: July 2014).

³ Denmark from Carsten Vittrup, Energinet.dk, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 22 May 2014; Portugal from Redes Energéticas Nacionais, Technical Data 2013 (Lisbon: 2014), p. 7; Spain from “Balance of Electrical Energy,” table in Red Eléctrica de España, “Statistical Series,” at www.ree.es/en/publications/indicators-and-statistical-data/statistical-series, updated April 2014; Ireland calculated by Earth Policy Institute from monthly reports in EirGrid, “All-Island Wind and Fuel Mix Report,” at www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/all-islandwindandfuelmixreport, viewed 20 May 2014.

⁴ Carsten Ender, “Wind Energy Use in Germany—Status 31.12.2013,” DEWI Magazin, no. 44 (February 2014), pp. 35–46.

⁵ Rachel Morison, “U.K. Wind Turbines Generate Record Power as Gas-Fed Plants Halt,” Bloomberg, 29 November 2013; Michael Goggin, “Wind Energy Blows Away Records Across Europe, Driving Emissions and Electricity Prices Down,” Into the Wind, at aweablog.org, 15 January 2014; annual wind share from U.K. Department of Energy and Climate Change, Energy Trends (London: March 2014), pp. 43, 50.

⁶ Various reports in EirGrid, “All-Island Wind and Fuel Mix Report,” at www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/all-islandwindandfuelmixreport, viewed 2 September 2014; Carsten Vittrup, “2013 Was a Record-Setting Year for Danish Wind Power,” press release (Fredericia, Denmark: Energinet.dk, 15 January 2014); January from Kjetil Malkenes Hovland, “Denmark’s Wind Power Output Rises to Record in First Half,” Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2014.

⁷ U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, updated 14 April 2014; International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and GWEC, 30 Years of Policies for Wind Energy: Lessons from 12 Wind Energy Markets (Abu Dhabi and Brussels: 2013), pp. 58–66; Sophie Vorrath, “Vestas Replaces GE as World’s Top Wind Turbine Installer in 2013,” RenewEconomy, 13 March 2014; Vestas, “Discover Wind,” at www.vestas.com/about/discover_wind, viewed 14 December 2014.

⁸ Colin Woodard, “Wind Power Pays Well for Denmark,” San Francisco Chronicle, 23 April 2001; Peter Asmus, Reaping the Wind (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000); IRENA and GWEC, op. cit. note 7, pp. 58–66; Danish Energy Agency, “Agreements on Danish Energy Policy,” at www.ens.dk/en/policy/danish-climate-energy-policy/agreements-danish-energy-policy, viewed 17 December 2014; Jesper Nørskov Rasmussen, “Wind Turbines Reached Record Level in 2014,” at energinet.dk/EN/El/Nyheder/Sider/Vindmoeller-slog-rekord-i-2014.aspx, 20 January 2015.

⁹ Paul Denholm et al., Land-Use Requirements of Modern Wind Power Plants in the United States (Golden, CO: DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL], August 2009), pp. 9–13.

¹⁰ Corn per acre and ethanol per bushel approximated from Allen Baker et al., “Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market,” Amber Waves, vol. 4, no. 2 (April 2006), pp. 32, 34; conservative ethanol price of $2 per gallon based on CME Group, “Ethanol Futures Quotes,” at www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/ethanol/cbot-ethanol.html, viewed 28 October 2014; wind calculations based on a 2-megawatt wind turbine operating 38 percent of the time, generating 6.6 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; capacity factor from Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Washington, DC: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy [EERE], August 2014), p. 44; wholesale electricity price of around 5ȼ per kilowatt-hour in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator regional electric power market from DOE, EIA, Electricity Monthly Update, various issues, at www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update; wind royalties are authors’ estimates based on Union of Concerned Scientists, “Farming the Wind: Wind Power and Agriculture,” fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: 2003); Iowa landowners from Mike Wiser, “Iowa Jobs in Jeopardy If Congress Kills Wind Tax Credits,” Sioux City Journal, 30 November 2013.

¹¹ D. L. Elliott, L. L. Wendell, and G. L. Gower, An Assessment of the Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous United States (Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1991); Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “The Spatial and Temporal Distributions of U.S. Winds and Wind Power at 80m Derived from Measurements,” Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 108 (13 May 2003); Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Juha Kiviluoma, “Global Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 27 (7 July 2009), pp. 10,933–38.

¹² Climate + Energy Project, “Kansas Energy Policy,” at climateandenergy.org/page.40.kansas-energy-policy, viewed 3 September 2014; Dan Judy, “Key Findings from Survey of Kansas Registered Voters Regarding Energy Issues,” memorandum, North Star Opinion Research, Alexandria, VA, 13 January 2014; Charul Vyas and Dave Hurst, “Energy and Environment Consumer Survey: Consumer Attitudes and Awareness Toward 10 Smart Energy Concepts,” White Paper (Boulder, CO: Navigant Research, 2013), p. 2; TNS Opinion & Social, Special Eurobarometer 364: Public Awareness and Acceptance of CO₂ Capture and Storage (Brussels: 2011), p. 68.

¹³ European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), The Economics of Wind Energy (Brussels: 2009), pp. 45–48; OwnEnergy, “How is a PPA Secured?” at www.ownenergy.net/knowledge-center/power-purchase-agreements/how-ppa-secured, viewed 28 October 2014.

¹⁴ Conway Irwin, “Midwest Wind Cost-Competitive with Gas and Coal,” Breaking Energy, 5 December 2013; Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Washington, DC: DOE, EERE, August 2014), pp. 69-75.

¹⁵ Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt, The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 (Paris, London, Washington, DC: Mycle Schneider Consulting, July 2014), pp. 32–33; DOE, Western Area Power Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Draft Upper Great Plains Wind Energy Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (Washington, DC: 2013), p. 3–6.

¹⁶ Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “Supplying Baseload Power and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 46 (November 2007), pp. 1,701–17.

¹⁷ Roger Drouin, “For the Birds (and the Bats): 8 Ways Wind Power Companies are Trying to Prevent Deadly Collisions,” Grist, 3 January 2014; Robin Webster and Freya Roberts, “Bird Death and Wind Turbines: a Look at the Evidence,” Carbon Brief, blog, at www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/04/wind-farms-and-birds, 10 April 2013; Benjamin K. Sovacool, “The Avian and Wildlife Costs of Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power,” Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, vol. 9, no. 4 (December 2012), pp. 255–78.

¹⁸ Historical data compiled by Earth Policy Institute from Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2001), from Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, China Wind Power Report 2007 (Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 2007), from GWEC, Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update (Brussels: various years), from EWEA, Wind Energy—The Facts (Brussels: 1999 and 2004), from François Demarcq, “Perspectives in France for the Coming Ten Years: WIND ENERGY,” in 1999 European Wind Energy Conference (Nice, France: 1999), from British Wind Energy Association, Wind Energy in the UK (London: 2008), from Associazione Nazionale Energia del Vento, “Installed Power Until 1999,” e-mail to Amy Heinzerling, Earth Policy Institute, 22 September 2009, and from EWEA, “Wind Energy Development in the EU 1998 to 2009,” table at www.ewea.org/index.php?id=180, 12 February 2010.

¹⁹ GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 43, 77; Eric Martinot and Li Junfeng, “China’s Latest Leap: An Update on Renewables Policy,” Renewable Energy World, 21 July 2010.

²⁰ GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 43, 77; BP, op. cit. note 1; International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries: 2012 Edition (Paris: 2012), pp. II.100–II.101; Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Juha Kiviluoma, “Global Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 27 (7 July 2009) pp. 10,933–38; current electricity generation from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm, downloaded 3 September 2014.

²¹ GWEC, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels: 2009), pp. 24-25; Liming Qiao, GWEC, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 12 November 2009.

²² Liming Qiao, GWEC, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 19 March 2012 and 29 July 2014.

²³ Ibid.; 2020 goal from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 45; Brazil from BP, op. cit. note 1.

²⁴ BP, op. cit. note 1; James Walker, “A Pleasant Surprise: USA, Not China, is #1 in Wind Energy,” Into the Wind, at aweablog.org, 19 January 2015.

²⁵ American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), “Wind Energy Delivers Record Construction Numbers; Leading Choice in Many Regions for New Electric Capacity,” press release (Washington, DC: 10 April 2014); Herman K. Trabish, “How America Ranks First in Wind Energy—Even with Less Capacity Than China,” Utility Dive, 13 November 2014.

²⁶ AWEA, AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Fourth Quarter 2013 Market Report (Washington, DC: 2014), p. 6; DOE, EIA, Crude Oil Production, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm, updated 2 September 2014; modern wind industry from Woodard, op. cit. note 8; Asmus, op. cit. note 8.

²⁷ Nicholas Sakelaris, “Wizard of Wind Power: Billingsley Says He Knows How to Make It Profitable,” Dallas Business Journal, 17 January 2014; Electric Reliability Council of Texas, System Planning: Monthly Status Report April 2014 (Austin, TX: 2014), p. 2.

²⁸ AWEA, “American Wind Power Reaches Major Power Generation Milestones in 2013,” press release (Washington, DC: 5 March 2014); Wiser, op. cit. note 10; Orlan Love, “Environment Iowa Study Underscores Wind Energy’s Benefits,” (Iowa City) Gazette, 21 November 2013; historical and current electricity mix in Iowa compiled by Earth Policy Institute from DOE, EIA, Electricity Data Browser, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser, viewed 2 September 2014.

²⁹ MidAmerican Energy, “Wind VIII Construction,” at www.midamericanenergy.com/wind_VIII_construction.aspx, viewed 12 January 2015; MidAmerican Energy Company, “Siemens Energy Announces World’s Largest Onshore Wind Turbine Order is Placed by MidAmerican Energy Company,” press release (Des Moines, IA: 16 December 2013); Ehren Goossens, “Buffett’s MidAmerican Gives Siemens Biggest Turbine Order,” Bloomberg, 16 December 2013.

³⁰ Byron Dorgan et al., “Unleashing the Powers of the Wind and the Great Sioux Nation,” Clinton Global Initiative Blog, at www.clintonfoundation.org/blog, 14 June 2013; Rona Fried, “Native Americans Find True Home in Renewable Energy,” Solar Today, vol. 27, no. 7 (November/December 2013), p. 11; Robin Whitlock, “South Dakota Tribes Unite to Develop Mega Wind Farm,” Renewable Energy Magazine, 1 July 2013; Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, “Oceti Ŝakowiŋ Power Project,” at rockpa.org/about-us-sponsored-projects-ospp, viewed 27 October 2014; Caroline Herron, Herron Consulting LLC, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 8 and 13 December 2014.

³¹ Fried, op. cit. note 30, p. 11.

³² U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 7; GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 18, 58; Ganesh Nagarajan, “India Invites Bids for $8 Billion Renewable Grid Upgrade,” Bloomberg, 7 August 2014; IEA, “Energy Access Database,” at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase, viewed 16 June 2014; Amitabh Sinha, “Four New Missions to Boost Response to Climate Change,” Indian Express, 3 January 2015; Valerie Volcovici and Aditya Kalra, “India to Push Renewable Energy Drive During Obama Visit,” Reuters, 22 January 2015.

³³ U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 7; GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 17, 36–37; Bloomberg New Energy Finance et al., Climatescope 2014: Mapping the Global Frontiers for Clean Energy Investment (Washington, DC: 2014), p. 51.

³⁴ Gideon Long, “Chile Launches its Biggest Wind Farm,” BBC News, 27 August 2014; Matt Craze, “Chile Top Renewables Market on Sunny Desert, Windy Shores,” Bloomberg, 7 October 2014; Pattern Energy Group, “El Arrayán Wind,” at patternenergy.com/en/operations/projects/el_arrayan, viewed 30 October 2014; Bloomberg New Energy Finance et al., op. cit. note 33, p. 51; Zindler quote from Justin Doom, “Poor Countries Tap Renewables at Twice the Pace of Rich,” Bloomberg, 28 October 2014.

³⁵ GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 17–18, 64–65; BP, op. cit. note 1; Jan Cienski, “Poland Struggles to Break its Dependency on Coal Power,” Financial Times, 10 November 2013.

³⁶ GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 70–71; Hülya Dagli, “Fresh Wind from an Ancient Land,” Pictures of the Future (Spring 2013), pp. 56-58; current electricity needs from BP, op. cit. note 1.

³⁷ EWEA, “Operational Offshore Wind Farms in Europe, End 2010” (Brussels: 2011); GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 55.

³⁸ EWEA, op. cit. note 37; GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 54–57; U.K. homes calculated based on 2012 data in The Crown Estate, Offshore Wind Operational Report 2013 (London: 2013), p. 8, assuming capacity factor of 40 percent from EWEA, Pure Power: Wind Energy Targets for 2020 and 2030 (Brussels: July 2011), p. 93; London Array, “Prime Minister David Cameron Inaugurates World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm,” press release (London: 4 July 2013); EWEA, The European Offshore Wind Industry—Key Trends and Statistics 2013 (Brussels: 2014), p. 3; German Wind Energy Association, “Significant German Offshore Wind Energy in 2013 Shows Growth,” press release (Berlin: 23 January 2014); Bentham Paulos, “Germany Reforms Renewable Energy Laws,” POWER, 1 August 2014.

³⁹ Henning Gloystein, “Dutch Gemini Wind Project Signs 3 Billion Euro Deal with Siemens Group,” Reuters, 15 May 2014; Siemens, “Siemens Provides 150 Wind Turbines for Largest Dutch Offshore Project,” press release (Erlangen: 15 May 2014); Pascal Ramaekers, Lydia Geijtenbeek, and Jurriën de Jong, “Netherlands Performs Above Average on Themes Europe 2020,” Statistics Netherlands Web Magazine, at www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/dossiers/eu/publicaties/archief/2014/2014-4058-wm.htm, 20 May 2014.

⁴⁰ GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 54–57; Yang Jianxiang, “China Plans Offshore Rethink,” Windpower Monthly, 2 September 2014.

⁴¹ U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center, “U.S. Bathymetric and Fishing Maps,” at maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/fishmaps, viewed 3 September 2014.

⁴² Walter Musial and Bonnie Ram, Large-scale Offshore Wind Power in the United States: Assessment of Opportunities and Barriers (Golden, CO, and Washington, DC: DOE, NREL, and Energetics Incorporated, 2010), pp. 3, 56–57, 59, assuming capacity factor of 40 percent from EWEA, op. cit. note 38, p. 93; U.S. electricity generation from DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 20; Navigant Consulting, Inc., Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis: 2014 Annual Market Assessment (Burlington, MA: 2014), pp. 5–11.

⁴³ Steve LeBlanc, “742K Acres of Ocean Off Massachusetts Coast to be Opened Up for Wind Energy Development,” Associated Press, 18 June 2014; U.S. Department of the Interior, “Secretary Jewell, Governor Patrick Announced the Nation’s Largest Offshore Wind Energy Area Available for Commercial Development,” press release (Boston: 17 June 2014).

⁴⁴ U.S. Department of the Interior, op. cit. note 43; U.S. Department of the Interior, “Interior Auctions 80,000 Acres Offshore Maryland for Wind Energy Development, Advances President’s Climate Action Plan,” press release (Washington, DC: 19 August 2014).

⁴⁵ Siemens AG, “Grid Access References,” at www.energy.siemens.com/hq/en/power-transmission/grid-access-solutions/references.htm, viewed 30 October 2014; Jan Mrosik, Offshore Wind Power as a Pillar of the Energy Transition (Erlangen, Germany: Siemens AG, July 2014); DONG Energy, “Construction of the Wind Farm,” at www.anholt-windfarm.com/en/the-project/construction-of-the-wind-farm, viewed 30 October 2014.

⁴⁶ Mrosik, op. cit. note 45; 50Hertz, “The Energy Supply of the Future,” at www.50hertz.com/en/Offshore/Wind-farms, viewed 30 October 2014; Kenneth Johannesson et al., “HVDC Light Cables for Long Distance Grid Connection,” paper presented at European Offshore Wind Conference 2009, Stockholm, 14–16 September 2009; Jesse Broehl, “High-Voltage DC Unlocks Distant Offshore Wind Sites,” Navigant Research Blog, at www.navigantresearch.com/blog, 24 February 2014.

⁴⁷ Siemens AG, “Siemens Installs Two Offshore Platforms for TenneT in the North Sea in July,” press release (Erlangen, Germany: 21 July 2014); Mrosik, op. cit. note 45; ABB, “BorWin1,” “DolWin1,” and “DolWin2,” at new.abb.com/systems/hvdc/references, viewed 31 October 2014; EWEA, The European Offshore Wind Industry—Key Trends and Statistics 2012 (Brussels: January 2013).

⁴⁸ Christian von Hirschhausen, “The German “Energiewende”—An Introduction,” Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, vol. 3, no. 2 (2014), pp. 1-12; Gerrit Wiesmann, “Germany Plans to Build Wind Power Grid,” Financial Times, 30 May 2012; 50Hertz et al., “Transmission System Operators Prepare Joint Realisation of Four Direct Current Power Links,” press release (Bayreuth, Berlin, Dortmund, and Stuttgart: 30 April 2013); Peter Fairley, “Germany Takes the Lead in HVDC,” IEEE Spectrum, 29 April 2013; Nuclear Engineering International, “Decommissioning in Germany,” at www.neimagazine.com/features/featuredecommissioning-in-germany, 27 March 2013.

⁴⁹ Friends of the Supergrid, “Member Companies,” “The Challenge,” and “Technology,” at www.friendsofthesupergrid.eu, viewed 31 October 2014; Fairley, op. cit. note 48.

⁵⁰ Power Company of Wyoming, “Putting Wind to Work for Carbon County,” at www.powercompanyofwyoming.com, viewed 4 September 2014; Mark Jaffe, “Phil Anschutz and Wind Energy in Wyoming: Entrepreneur’s Latest $9 Billion Idea,” Denver Post, 20 January 2013; Ari Phillips, “Wind Farm Powering a Million Homes Nears Approval Deep in Coal Country,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 11 August 2014; U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, “Chokecherry & Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project,” at www.blm.gov/wy/st/en/info/NEPA/documents/rfo/Chokecherry.html, updated 14 October 2014; Kara Choquette, Power Company of Wyoming, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 24 October 2014; TransWest Express LLC, “Delivering Wyoming Wind Energy to the West,” at www.transwestexpress.net/index.shtml, viewed 23 October 2014.

⁵¹ Herman K. Trabish, “Texas and Inner Mongolia Need Transmission to Integrate Wind,” Greentech Media, 19 February 2013; Phillips, op. cit. note 50; TransWest Express LLC, op. cit. note 50; Matthew L. Wald, “Texas is Wired for Wind Power, and More Farms Plug In,” New York Times, 23 July 2014; Mariah project from Jim Swafford, Scandia Wind Southwest, LLC, discussion with J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 22 October 2014; AWEA, op. cit. note 28; “BPA to Upgrade Pacific Direct Current Intertie,” POWERnews, 29 February 2012; ABB, “Pacific Intertie,” at new.abb.com/systems/hvdc/references/pacific-intertie, viewed 23 October 2014; Doug Johnson, Bonneville Power Administration, discussion with J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 27 October 2014.

⁵² Clean Line Energy Partners, “Projects Overview,” at www.cleanlineenergy.com/projects, viewed 27 October 2014.

⁵³ Tres Amigas LLC, “Location,” at www.tresamigasllc.com/location.php, viewed 27 October 2014.

⁵⁴ Rebecca Smith, “Drive to Link Wind, Solar Power to Distant Users,” Wall Street Journal, 13 October 2009; Richard A. Kessler, “Interview: Tres Amigas’ Phil Harris,” Recharge News, 27 August 2014; Tres Amigas LLC, “Technology,” at www.tresamigasllc.com/technology.php, viewed 4 September 2014.

⁵⁵ James Lawson, “Repowering Gives New Life to Old Wind Sites,” Renewable Energy World, 17 June 2013; Ros Davidson, “Analysis: Repowering of Iconic California Cluster in Doubt,” Windpower Monthly, 11 April 2014; Justin Wu, “BNEF University: How Innovation is Driving System Change,” presentation at The Future of Energy Summit 2014, New York, 7 April 2014.

⁵⁶ Doom, op. cit. note 34.

Chapter 7: Tapping the Earth’s Heat

¹ Rebecca J. Rosen, “The Earth’s Core Is as Hot as the Surface of the Sun,” The Atlantic, 26 April 2013; National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Sun: Read More,” at solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/profile.cfm?Object=Sun&Display=OverviewLong, viewed 20 January 2015; Simone Anzellini et al., “Melting of Iron at Earth’s Inner Core Boundary Based on Fast X-ray Diffraction,” Science, vol. 340, no. 6131 (26 April 2013), pp. 464-66.

² World Energy Council, World Energy Resources: Geothermal (London: 2013) p. 9.4.

³ John W. Lund and Tonya L. Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review,” prepared for World Geothermal Congress 2015, Melbourne, Australia, 19–25 April 2015; Árni Ragnarsson, “Geothermal Development in Iceland 2005–2009,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010.

⁴ Ragnarsson, op. cit. note 3; geothermal capacity and percent electricity from hydropower from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); geothermal percent generation from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm, viewed 1 August 2014; aluminum from National Energy Authority, “Electricity Generation,” at www.nea.is/geothermal/electricity-generation, viewed 29 December 2014.

⁵ Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; 1,100 years ago from Árni Ragnarsson, “Utilization of Geothermal Energy in Iceland,” presented at International Geothermal Conference, Reykjavík, Iceland, 14–17 September 2003; number of baths from National Energy Authority, “Bathing & Recreation,” at www.nea.is/geothermal/direct-utilization/bathing--recreation, viewed 20 January 2015; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, updated 14 April 2014; more than 400,000 visitors and temperature of Blue Lagoon from Magnea Gudmundsóttir, Ása Brynjólfsdóttir, and Albert Albertsson, “The History of the Blue Lagoon in Svartsengi,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; most famous tourist destination and brine from Albert Albertsson and Júlíus Jónsson, “The Svartsengi Resource Park,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010.

⁶ Ragnarsson, op. cit. note 3; National Energy Authority, “Space Heating,” at www.nea.is/geothermal/direct-utilization/space-heating, viewed 29 December 2014; U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, at esa.un.org/unpd/wup, electronic database, downloaded 20 December 2014.

⁷ Area of sidewalks and greenhouses from Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; National Energy Authority, “Snow Melting,” at www.nea.is/geothermal/direct-utilization/snow-melting, viewed 23 January 2015; cement curing and salt production from National Energy Authority, “Industrial Users,” at www.nea.is/geothermal/direct-utilization/industrial-uses, viewed 29 December 2014; Árni Ragnarsson, “Geothermal Energy in Aquaculture,” presented at Short Course VI on Utilization of Low- and Medium-Enthalpy Geothermal Resources and Financial Aspects of Utilization, Santa Tecla, El Salvador, 23–29 March 2014.

⁸ John W. Lund, Oregon Institute of Technology (retired), e-mail to Lindsay Garten, Earth Policy Institute, 5 November 2014; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; John W. Lund, Derek H. Freeston, and Tonya L. Boyd, “World-Wide Direct Uses of Geothermal Energy 2005,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2005, Antalya, Turkey, 24–29 April 2005; “Orka Energy Drills Well No. 100 for its Heating Projects in China,” ThinkGeoEnergy, 7 November 2013; Orka Energy, “Current Projects,” at www.orkaenergy.com/projects, viewed 29 December 2014.

⁹ Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3.

¹⁰ Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; John W. Lund, Derek H. Freeston, and Tonya L. Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2010 Worldwide Review,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010.

¹¹ Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; Tuscany from Lund, Freeston, and Boyd, op. cit. note 10; “France Bets on Geothermal Energy” (editorial), New York Times, 17 September 2014.

¹² Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; 1,200 swimming pools from John W. Lund and Derek H. Freeston, “World-wide Direct Uses of Geothermal Energy 2000,” Geothermics, vol. 30 (2001), p. 53; 193 geothermal wells from Lund, Freeston, and Boyd, op. cit. note 10.

¹³ Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; first district heating system and other U.S. cities that use district heating from DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE), Geothermal Technologies Program: Direct Use (Washington, DC: 2004), p. 11; U.S. Census Bureau, State & County QuickFacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states, updated 8 July 2014; “Boise’s Geothermal Network Expanding to BSU campus,” KTVB.com, 11 November 2013.

¹⁴ Today’s Energy Solutions, “Goodbye Coal, Hello Geothermal,” at www.onlinetes.com/coal-geothermal-ball-state-university-32914.aspx, 29 March 2014; “New Geothermal Boilers Being Installed at Ball State,” WNDU, 28 March 2014.

¹⁵ Lund, op. cit. note 8; Lund and Boyd, op. cit. note 3; Pacific Aqua Farms, at www.pacificaquafarms.net, viewed 29 December 2014.

¹⁶ Dina Kraft, “From Far Beneath the Israeli Desert, Water Sustains a Fertile Enterprise,” New York Times, 2 January 2007; Samuel Appelbaum, “Aquaculture Experiences in the Negev Desert in Israel,” in Valerio Crespi and Alessandro Lovatelli, eds., Aquaculture in Desert and Arid Lands, presented at FAO Technical Workshop, Hermosillo, Mexico, 6–9 July 2010.

¹⁷ DOE, EERE, “Geothermal Heat Pumps,” at energy.gov/energysaver/articles/geothermal-heat-pumps, updated 24 June 2012; DOE, EERE, “Choosing and Installing Geothermal Heat Pumps,” at energy.gov/energysaver/articles/choosing-and-installing-geothermal-heat-pumps, updated 24 June 2012; capacity from Lund, op. cit. note 8.

¹⁸ Lund, op. cit. note 8; geothermal power from BP, op. cit. note 4.

¹⁹ Compiled by Earth Policy Institute from DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 4.

²⁰ Karl Gawell et al., Preliminary Report: Geothermal Energy, the Potential for Clean Power from the Earth (Washington, DC: Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), 7 April 1999); 2014 population from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

²¹ Generating capacity from BP, op. cit. note 4; generation in 2012 from DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 4; number of homes calculated using average annual residential electricity consumption of 10,837 kWh from DOE, EIA, “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Electricity Does an American Home Use?” at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3, updated 10 January 2014; Geysers generating capacity from Benjamin Matek and Karl Gawell, Report on the State of Geothermal Energy in California (Washington, DC: GEA, 2014), p. 4; plants under development from Benjamin Matek, 2014 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report (Washington, DC: GEA, 2014), pp.12, 15–16.

²² GEA, Geothermal 101: Basics of Geothermal Energy (Washington, DC: April 2014), p. 12; Union of Concerned Scientists, “How Geothermal Energy Works,” at www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/renewable-energy/how-geothermal-energy-works.html, viewed 31 December 2014; Ruggero Bertani, “Geothermal Power Generation in the World 2005–2010 Update Report,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; World Energy Council, op. cit. note 2, pp. 9.3–9.6.

²³ Matek, op. cit. note 21, pp. 4, 16; MidAmerican Renewables, “CalEnergy Supports California Legislature Recognition of May as Geothermal Month,” press release (Des Moines: 15 May 2014).

²⁴ Number of homes calculated using average annual residential electricity consumption of 10,837 kWh from DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 21; 42,000 megawatts calculated from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “Assessment of Moderate- and High-Temperature Geothermal Resources of the United States,” fact sheet (Reston, VA: 2008), and from BP, op. cit. note 4; assumed 90 percent capacity factor based on REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), p. 64.

²⁵ BP, op. cit. note 4; Alena Mae S. Flores, “Mindoro Geothermal Plant Gets 2 Investors,” Manila Standard Today, 19 October 2014; Juliana Glenn and Benjamin Matek, The Status of Geothermal Power in Emerging Economies (Washington, DC: GEA, October 2014), p. 11; DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 19.

²⁶ Active volcanoes from Ben Otto, “Indonesia Volcano Erupts 77 Times in 24 Hours,” Wall Street Journal, 5 January 2014; generating capacity from BP, op. cit. note 4; 2019 goal from “Geothermal Development: Indonesia to Tender 25 Projects in 2015,” Indonesia Investments, 21 November 2014; 330-megawatt project from Michael Taylor and Wilda Asmarini, “Indonesia Clears Path for Geothermal Energy as Power Needs Rise,” Reuters, 20 November 2014; 2025 goal from Harry Jacques, “Indonesia: the Slow Boil Geothermal Superpower,” Nikkei Asian Review, 30 June 2014.

²⁷ Production decline from BP, op. cit. note 4; net importer from DOE, EIA, “Indonesia,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 5 March 2014); Tito Summa Siahaan, “Pertamina Turns to New Energy Sources to Become Global Player,” Jakarta Globe, 21 July 2012.

²⁸ Figure of 80,000 megawatts is the total estimated geothermal power generation potential in shallow, deep, and hot spring resources, from Hirofumi Muraoka, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 5 and 13 July 2009; current capacity and annual electricity generation from all sources from BP, op. cit. note 4; projects under development from Matek, op. cit. note 21, p. 12; law change in 2012 from Yuriko Nagano, “Geothermal Power Tests Tradition in Japan,” New York Times, 1 October 2012; feed-in tariff from Kasumi Yasukawa, “Japan—Renewed Opportunities,” presented at Geothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting 2014, Reno, Nevada, 28 September–1 October 2014.

²⁹ U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; Daniel Kelly, “Frying Pan Lake Is World’s Largest Hot Spring,” Lake Scientist, blog, at www.lakescientist.com/frying-pan-lake-largest-hot-spring, 10 March 2014; DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 19; James Weir, “Te Mihi Geothermal Station to Boost Contact,” (Wellington) Dominion Post, 14 August 2014; Grant Bradley, “Geothermal Powers Ahead of Gas,” New Zealand Herald, 11 December 2014.

³⁰ Bradley, op. cit. note 29.

³¹ BP, op. cit. note 4; Larderello 1904 from John W. Lund, 100 Years of Geothermal Power Production (Klamath Falls, OR: Geo-Heat Center, Oregon Institute of Technology, 2004); Paolo Romagnoli and Ruggero Bertani, 2013 Italy Country Report (Taupo, New Zealand: International Energy Agency, Geothermal Implementing Agreement, 2013).

³² BP, op. cit. note 4; Alex Richter, “The Exciting Opportunities of the Turkish Geothermal Market,” ThinkGeoEnergy, 3 December 2014.

³³ BP, op. cit. note 4; projects under development from Glenn and Matek, op. cit. note 25, p. 7; population without access to electricity from International Energy Agency (IEA), WEO-2013 Electricity Access Database, electronic database, at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase, downloaded 2 November 2014; 2030 goal from Jessica Hatcher, “Kenya’s Energy Revolution: Full Steam Ahead for Geothermal Power,” (London) Guardian, 22 November 2013, and from REN21, op. cit. note 24, p. 124.

³⁴ Alex Richter, “African Union and Reykjavik Geothermal Sign Grant Agreement,” ThinkGeoEnergy, 26 May 2014; Karl Gawell and Benjamin Matek, GEA, discussion with Janet Larsen and J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 4 September 2014; current generating capacity from all sources from DOE, EIA, op. cit. note 19; hydropower share from BP, op. cit. note 4.

³⁵ Current renewable share of electricity and 2021 goal from REN21, op. cit. note 24, p. 119; 2012 renewable share by source from IEA, “Costa Rica: Electricity and Heat for 2012,” at www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=COSTARICA&product=electricityandheat&year=2012, viewed 19 December 2014; carbon neutral and project details from Glenn and Matek, op. cit. note 25, pp. 3–4; “Clean Energy Coming to Costa Rica…In a Few Years,” Costa Rican Times, 6 August 2014; 2013 installed geothermal capacity from BP, op. cit. note 4; dry season problems from Corey Kane, “Costa Rica Opens the Door to More Renewable Energy Generation,” Tico Times, 3 April 2014.

³⁶ Rodolfo Herrera, Francisco Montalvo, and Ada Herrera, “El Salvador Country Update,” presented at World Geothermal Congress 2010, Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; civil war from BBC News, “Timeline: El Salvador,” at news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1220818.stm, 16 August 2012; current geothermal share from IEA, “El Salvador: Electricity and Heat for 2012,” at www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=ELSALVADOR&product=electricityandheat&year=2012, viewed 19 December 2014; Enel Green Power, “Enel Green Power Sells Stake in La Geo and Steps out of El Salvador,” press release (San Salvador and Rome: 12 December 2014).

³⁷ GEA, “Geothermal Energy in 2013: Expanding Global Growth,” press release (Washington, DC: 23 December 2013); Matek, op. cit. note 21, pp. 4, 12.

³⁸ Magnus Gehringer and Victor Loksha, Geothermal Handbook: Planning and Financing Power Generation (Washington, DC: World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, June 2012), pp. 2-5, 55; cost-competitive from GEA, “Geothermal Basics: Power Plant Costs,” at www.geo-energy.org/geo_basics_plant_cost.aspx, viewed 5 August 2014, and from IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014: Harnessing Electricity’s Potential (Paris: 2014), p. 69.

³⁹ Roland N. Horne and Jefferson W. Tester, “Geothermal Energy: An Emerging Option for Heat and Power,” The Bridge, vol. 44, no. 1 (Spring 2014), pp. 7–15; DOE, Geothermal Technologies Office, “What is an Enhanced Geothermal System?” fact sheet (Washington, DC: September 2012); Joseph N. Moore and Stuart F. Simmons, “More Power from Below,” Science, vol. 340, no. 6,135 (24 May 2013), pp. 933–34; Glenn and Matek, op. cit. note 25.

⁴⁰ Moore and Simmons, op. cit. note 39.

⁴¹ REN21, op. cit. note 24, pp. 39, 41; Ormat, “Global Project Map,” at www.ormat.com/global-project, viewed 20 November 2014; Ormat, “Success with Enhanced Geothermal Systems Changing the Future of Geothermal Power in the U.S.,” press release (Reno, NV: 10 April 2013).

⁴² Jefferson Tester et al., The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006), pp. 1–6; USGS, op. cit. note 24; global conventional potential from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012), p. 409.

⁴³ Doug Hollett, DOE, Geothermal Technologies Office, discussion with J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 6 October 2014; DOE, EERE, “About FORGE,” at www.energy.gov/eere/forge/about-forge, viewed 20 November 2014.

⁴⁴ Magnus Gehringer and Victor Loksha, Geothermal Handbook: Planning and Financing Power Generation (Washington, DC: World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, June 2012), pp. 2–5; Gawell and Matek, op. cit. note 34.

Chapter 8: Hydropower: Past and Future

¹ Richard H. Solomon, “The Chairman’s Historic Swim,” Time, 27 September 1999; Linda Butler, Yangtze Remembered: The River Beneath the Lake (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004), p. 4; “FACTBOX: Facts About China’s Three Gorges Dam,” Reuters, 14 November 2007; Howard W. French, “Dam Project to Displace Millions More in China,” New York Times, 12 October 2007.

² Richard Stone, “The Legacy of the Three Gorges Dam,” Science, vol. 333, no. 6,044 (12 August 2011), p. 817; Sui-Lee Wee, “Thousands Being Moved From China’s Three Gorges—Again,” Reuters, 22 August 2012; Michael Wines, “China Admits Problems With Three Gorges Dam,” New York Times, 19 May 2011; “China’s Three Gorges Dam Receives Record Number of Tourists,” Xinhua, 2 October 2014; energy equivalents calculated using U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “How Much Coal, Natural Gas, or Petroleum is Used to Generate a Kilowatthour of Electricity?,” at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=667&t=8, updated 15 January 2014; nuclear reactor generation of 7,000 gigawatt-hours from International Atomic Energy Agency, Power Reactor Information System, “China, People’s Republic of,” at www.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=CN, updated 16 December 2014; 300 mega dams from Atif Ansar et al., “Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development,” Energy Policy, vol. 69, no. 2 (June 2014), pp. 43–56.

³ Flooding from Brian Handwerk, “China’s Three Gorges Dam, by the Numbers,” National Geographic News, 9 June 2006; displacement from Wines, op. cit. note 2; living standards from Charlton Lewis, “China’s Great Dam Boom: A Major Assault on its Rivers,” Yale Environment 360, 3 November 2013; unique species from Mara Hvistendahl, “China’s Three Gorges Dam: An Environmental Catastrophe?” Scientific American, 25 March 2008; “Three Gorges Dam Triggers Frequent Seismic Activities,” New Tang Dynasty Television, 2 April 2014; International Rivers, “Three Gorges Dam a Model of the Past,” fact sheet, (Berkeley, CA: 2012).

⁴ Wines, op. cit. note 2.

⁵ More than 150 countries and share of world electricity generation from DOE, EIA, International Energy Statistics, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/countries/data.cfm, viewed 12 August 2014; “Electricity Generating Capacity,” table in DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 With Projections to 2040 (Washington DC: April 2014), pp. A-20–21; number of large dams from World Commission on Dams, Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making (London: Earthscan, 2000); number of dams generating electricity from Christiane Zarfl et al., “A Global Boom in Hydropower Dam Construction” Aquatic Sciences, vol. 77, no. 1 (1 January 2015), pp. 161–70.

⁶ REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), pp. 43–45; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); Zarfl et al., op. cit. note 5.

⁷ BP, op. cit. note 6; Lewis, op. cit. note 3.

⁸ Percent electricity from hydropower from DOE, International Energy Statistics, op. cit. note 5, and from BP, op. cit. note 6; Emeline Wuilbercq, “Ethiopia’s Nile Dam Project Signals its Intention to Become an African Power,” (London) Guardian, 14 July 2014.

⁹ BP, op. cit. note 6; Water-Technology.net, “Top 10 Biggest Dams,” at www.water-technology.net/features/feature-ten-largest-dams-in-the-world-reservoirs, 30 September 2013.

¹⁰ Percent electricity from hydropower and could power global economy for almost two days from DOE, International Energy Statistics, op. cit. note 5; Hydroworld, “Brazil’s Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant Sets New Production Record,” at www.hydroworld.com/articles/2014/01/brazil-s-itaipu-hydroelectric-plant-sets-new-production-record.html, 1 January 2015; Itaipu Binacional “Energy,” at www.itaipu.gov.br/en/energy/energy, viewed 11 November 2014; Itaipu Binacional “Comparisons,” at www.itaipu.gov.py/en/energy/comparisons, viewed 9 December 2014; Itaipu Binacional “Itaipu Holds the Title of Largest Power Producer in the World,” at www.itaipu.gov.br/en/press-office/news/itaipu-holds-title-largest-power-producer-world, 1 January 2013.

¹¹ Percent hydropower from BP, op. cit. note 6; Hydro Québec, “Hydroelectric Generating Stations,” at www.hydroquebec.com/generation/centrale-hydroelectrique.html, 11 November 2014; B.C. Hydro, “Williston Reservoir,” at www.bchydro.com/community/recreation_areas/williston.html, viewed 11 November 2014; B.C. Hydro, “BC Hydro’s System,” at www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/our_system.html, viewed 21 January 2015.

¹² Population from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, updated 14 April 2014; meets the needs of roughly 10 million Americans calculated using Canada’s electricity exports to the United States from DOE, EIA, “Canada,” at www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CA, updated 30 September 2014; household electricity use from DOE, EIA, “Frequently Asked Questions: How Much Electricity Does an American Home Use?” at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3, updated 10 January 2014; people per household from U.S. Census Bureau, State & County Quickfacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov, updated 8 July 2014.

¹³ Population from United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 12; Victor Mallet, “Bhutan Hoping for Happiness with Hydropower,” Financial Times, 2 January 2014.

¹⁴ BP, op. cit. note 6; Geoffrey T. Smith, “Race Is On to Finish Siberian Dam,” Wall Street Journal, 22 April 2014; U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), AQUASTAT, electronic database, at www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm, updated 4 July 2013; Irkutskenergo, “General Information” and “History,” at en.irkutskenergo.ru, viewed 26 November 2014.

¹⁵ Richard Beilfuss, A Risky Climate for Southern African Hydro (Berkeley, CA: International Rivers, 2012) p. 19; Christopher Magadza, Kariba Dam (Shiga, Japan: International Lake Environmental Committee Foundation, 2013).

¹⁶ Volta River Authority, “Akosombo Hydro Plant,” at www.vra.com/our_mandate/akosombo_hydro_plant.php, viewed 17 December 2014; Henry Shirazu Alhassan, “Viewpoint—Butterflies vs. Hydropower: Reflections on Large Dams in Contemporary Africa,” Water Alternatives, vol. 2, no. 1 (February 2009).

¹⁷ National Performance of Dams Program, “Largest U.S. Reservoirs,” at npdp.stanford.edu/node/63, viewed 18 August 2014; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, “Grand Coulee Dam Statistics and Facts,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: March 2012); U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, “Grand Coulee Dam: About Us,” at www.usbr.gov/pn/grandcoulee/about/index.html, updated October 18, 2006; Jay Jones, “Hoover Dam Still Stands as Testament to American Ingenuity,” Los Angeles Times, 26 September 2010; National Park Service, “Grand Coulee Dam Washington,” at www.nps.gov/nr/travel/ReclamationDamsIrrigationProjectsAndPowerplants/grand_coulee_dam.html, viewed 18 August 2014.

¹⁸ Percent electricity from BP, op. cit. note 6; percent renewables from Table 1.1 “Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), 2004-September 2014,” Table in DOE, IEA Electric Power Monthly, November 2014; top generating states compiled by Earth Policy Institute from DOE, EIA, Electricity Data Browser, electronic database, at www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser, downloaded 16 December 2014; DOE, EIA, “The Columbia River Basin Provides More Than 40% of Total U.S. Hydroelectric Generation,” Today in Energy, 27 June 2014.

¹⁹ Boualem Hadjerioua, Yaxing Wei, and Shih-Chieh Kao, An Assessment of Energy Potential at Non-Powered Dams in the United States (Washington, DC: DOE, Wind and Water Program, 2012), pp. vii, 5; number of dams from National Hydropower Association, “Hydropower For a Clean Energy Future,” fact sheet (Washington, DC); Markey quotation from, National Hydropower Association, “Hydropower Potential,” fact sheet (Washington, DC); equivalent of 60 nuclear power reactors assumes roughly 1,000-megawatt capacity for large nuclear power reactor from World Nuclear Association, “WNA Reactor Database,” at world-nuclear.org/NuclearDatabase/Default.aspx?id=27232, viewed 11 December 2014.

²⁰ Hadjerioua, Wei, and Kao, op. cit. note 19, pp. 22, 24.

²¹ American Rivers, “2013 Dam Removals,” at www.americanrivers.org/initiative/dams/projects/2013-dam-removals, viewed 11 December 2014; American Rivers “Comprehensive List Of Dams Removed 1998-2012,” at www.americanrivers.org/assets/pdfs/dam-removal-docs/dams-removed-1998-to-2012.pdf?388ec0, viewed 11 December 2014; Yvon Chouinard, “Tear Down ‘Deadbeat’ Dams,” New York Times, 7 May 2014.

²² Doug Struck, “Setting Rivers Free: As Dams Are Torn Down, Nature is Quickly Recovering,” Christian Science Monitor, 3 August 2014; Douglas Main, “As World’s Largest Dam Removal is Completed, Fish Already Returning,” Newsweek, 9 September 2014; Fred Pearce, “A Successful Push to Restore Europe’s Long-Abused Rivers,” Yale Environment 360, 10 December 2013.

²³ Meshes with wind and solar from Lou Del Bello, “How to Plan Hydropower Stations for the Future,” SciDev.Net, 3 September 2014; water storage and flood control from Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Benefits of Dams,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 14 July 2014); U.S. Geological Survey, “Advantages of Hydroelectric Power Production and Usage,” at water.usgs.gov/edu/hydroadvantages.html, updated 17 March 2014.

²⁴ Hvistendahl, op. cit. note 3; Jeff Spross, “China Just Endorsed Construction of its Biggest Hydropower Dam Yet,” Think Progress, 19 May 2013; Lewis, op. cit. note 3; “Dam Effects on Rivers,” American Rivers, at www.americanrivers.org/initiatives/dams/why-remove, viewed 26 November 2014.

²⁵ DOE, EIA, “Hydropower Supplies More Than Three-quarters of Brazil’s Electric Power,” Today in Energy, 17 June 2014; “Biggest Brazil Metro Area Desperate for Water,” Associated Press, 7 November 2014; DOE, EIA, “California Drought Leads to Less Hydropower, Increased Natural Gas Generation,” Today in Energy, 6 October 2014; Nigeria hydropower production and vulnerability to changes in water availability from Bent Flyvbjerg and Atif Ansar, “Ending the Flood of Megadams,” Wall Street Journal, 18 March 2014.

²⁶ World Business Council on Sustainable Development and International Energy Agency (IEA), Cement Technology Roadmap 2009 (Paris: 2009), at www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Cement.pdf; Alexander English, Let All Rivers Run to the Sea (Berkeley, CA: International Rivers, 2013); Nathan Barros et al., “Carbon Emission from Hydroelectric Reservoirs Linked to Reservoir Age and Latitude,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 4, no. 9 (1 September 2011), pp. 593-96.

²⁷ International Rivers, “Earthquakes Triggered by Dams,” at www.internationalrivers.org/earthquakes-triggered-by-dams, viewed 1 December 2014; May 2008 earthquake from Sharon LaFraniere, “Possible Link Between Dam and China Quake,” New York Times, 5 February 2009; a mile from a major fault zone and 2013 earthquake from Lewis, op. cit. note 3; amplified the strain on the earth’s crust and 7.9 magnitude earthquake from Gautam Naik and Shai Oster, “Scientists Link China’s Dam to Earthquake, Renewing Debate,” Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2009; Jane Qiu, “Chinese Data Hint at Trigger For Fatal Quake,” Nature, vol. 513, no. 7,517 (10 September 2014), pp. 154–55.

²⁸ Ansar op. cit. note 2; came online in 1984 from “Why Brazil Gave Way on Itaipu Dam,” BBC News, 26 July 2009; cost $20 billion, 240 percent cost overrun, and financially impaired Brazil from Flyvbjerg and Ansar, op. cit. note 25.

²⁹ Ansar et al., op. cit. note 2; Flyvbjerg and Ansar, op. cit. note 25. Note that the average time to build large dams does not include the “lengthy lead times preparing the project” and that generally projects are publically financed.

³⁰ Zarfl et al., op. cit. note 5.

³¹ IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: 2014), pp. 259–60; rest of projected growth from REN21, op. cit. note 6, pp. 43–45; Lewis, op. cit. note 3; Zarfl et al., op. cit. note 5; Bo Li et al., The “Last Report” on China’s Rivers (China, 2014); Lily Kuo, “China’s Addiction to Hydropower in Two Dam Maps,” Quartz, 8 April 2014.

³² Lisa Ward, “Going With the Flow,” Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2013; Belo Monte capacity from DOE, “Hydropower Supplies,” op. cit. note 25; “The Rights and Wrongs of Belo Monte,” The Economist, 4 May 2013; Erin Brodwin, “Amazon Be Dammed: Deforestation Undermines Future Viability of Brazil’s Hydropower Projects,” Scientific American, 15 May 2013; Jason Plautz, “Brazil’s Dangerous Climate Spiral,” National Journal, 31 October 2014; James Randall Kahn, Carlos Edwar Freitas, and Miguel Petrere, “False Shades of Green: The Case of Brazilian Amazonian Hydropower,” Energies, vol. 7, no. 9 (16 September 2014), pp. 6,063-82.

³³ Himanshu Thakkar, “India’s Dam Building Abroad: Ignoring Lessons from Home?” International Rivers, 10 December 2010; David Appleyard, “Hydropower 2014 Outlook: Hydro Industry to Expand Its Global Reach,” Renewable Energy World, 28 January 2014; Andrew Williams, “Run-of-the-River Hydropower Goes With the Flow,” Renewable Energy World, 31 January 2012; International Rivers, The New Great Walls: A Guide to China’s Overseas Dam Industry (Berkeley, CA: 2012); International Rivers, “China Overseas Dams List,” at www.internationalrivers.org/resources/china-overseas-dams-list-3611, updated November 2014; International Rivers, Master Dams List, electronic database, at www.internationalrivers.org/files/attached-files/2014.11.07master_dams_list.xls, updated November 2014; International Rivers, “Nam Ou River,” at www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/nam-ou-river, viewed 21 January 2014.

³⁴ Chen Aizhu and David Stanway, “China’s Three Gorges to Diversify as Big Dam Projects Dry Up,” Reuters, 14 November 2014; International Rivers, The New Great Walls, op. cit. note 33; installed capacity and wind farms from China Three Gorges Corporation, “Corporation Information,” at www.ctgpc.com/information/information_c.php, viewed 22 December 2014; International Rivers, “China Three Gorges Corporation,” at www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/china-three-gorges-corporation, viewed 11 January 2015; International Rivers, “Sinohydro Corporation,” at www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/sinohydro-corporation, viewed 11 January 2015.

³⁵ Mike Cohen, “South Africa Approves Treaty for $100 Billion Inga Hydropower,” Bloomberg, 21 August 2014; International Rivers, “Inga 1 and Inga 2 Dams,” at www.internationalrivers.org/resources/inga-1-and-inga-2-dams-3616, viewed 21 January 2015; generating capacity from Howard Schneider, “World Bank Turns to Hydropower to Square Development With Climate Change,” Washington Post, 8 May 2013.

³⁶ Daniel Wesangula, “From Cape Town to Kinshasa: Could the Great Inga Dam Power Half of Africa?” (London) Guardian, 19 September 2014; World Bank, “DRC Inga 3 and Mid-Size Hydropower Development TA,” at www.worldbank.org/projects/P131027/inga-3-development-ta?lang=en, viewed 6 January 2015.

³⁷ International Rivers, “Congo’s Energy Divide Factsheet,” fact sheet (Berkeley, CA, 9 June 2013); Katrina Manson, “Congo Renews Push for Grand Inga Dam, an African White Elephant,” Financial Times, 8 September 2014; Howard Schneider, “World Bank Turns to Hydropower to Square Development with Climate Change,” Washington Post, 8 May 2013.

³⁸ Schneider, op. cit. note 37; Joshua S. Hill, “Solar PV Production Costs to Drop in 2014,” Clean Technica, 22 November 2013.

³⁹ Dave Levitan, “As Small Hydropower Expands, So Does Caution on Its Impacts,” Yale Environment 360, 4 August 2014; Heng Liu, Lara Esser, and Diego Masera, eds., World Small Hydropower Development Report 2013 Executive Summary (Hangzhou, China: International Center on Small Hydro Power, 2013), p. 3.

⁴⁰ Liu, Esser, and Masera, op. cit. note 39, pp. 3, 13. Note that China’s definition of small hydropower is more generous than many other countries, going up to 50 megawatts instead of 10 megawatts.

⁴¹ Levitan, op. cit. note 39; Klement Tockner quote from Fred Pearce, “A Successful Push to Restore Europe’s Long-Abused Rivers,” Yale Environment 360, 10 December 2013; lacking access to electricity from IEA, op. cit. note 31, p. 74, and from United Nations Foundation, “Achieving Universal Energy Access,” at www.unfoundation.org/what-we-do/issues/energy-and-climate/clean-energy-development.html, viewed 22 January 2015.

⁴² Parameswaran Ponnudurai, “Water Wars Feared Over Mekong,” Radio Free Asia, 30 September 2012; Thanassis Cambanis, “Egypt and Thirsty Neighbors Are at Odds Over Nile,” New York Times, 25 September 2010; Circle of Blue, “Map: Major Hydropower in China,” at www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2012/world/map-major-hydropower-in-china, updated 19 March 2012.

⁴³ First phase and run-of-the-river projects from Saibal Dasgupta, “China Builds Hydroelectric Dam on Brahmaputra in Tibet, India Fears Flash Floods,” TNN, 24 November 2014; several hundred new dams from R. Edward Grumbine and Maharaj K. Pandit, “Threats from India’s Himalaya Dams,” Science, vol. 339, no. 6,115 (4 January 2013), pp. 36–37; James T. Areddy, “China Dam Project Slated for Tibet Quietly Passes Key Hurdle,” Wall Street Journal, 14 August 2014.

⁴⁴ Ponnudurai, op. cit. note 42; FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2014 (Rome: 2014), p. 105.

⁴⁵ David Roberts, “No More Dams on the Mekong,” New York Times, 3 September 2014; International Centre for Environmental Management, Potential For Increasing The Role of Renewables in Mekong Power Supply (Mk14) Synthesis Report (Hanoi, Viet Nam: 2014).

⁴⁶ Hassen Hussein, “Egypt and Ethiopia Spar Over the Nile,” Al Jazeera, 6 February 2014; Lester R. Brown, “When the Nile Runs Dry,” New York Times, 1 June 2011; Fred Pearce, “Does Egypt Own The Nile? A Battle Over Precious Water,” Yale Environment 360, 19 July 2010; George Ledec and Juan David Quintero, Good Dams and Bad Dams: Environmental Criteria for Site Selection of Hydroelectric Projects (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003).

⁴⁷ United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 12; Hussein, op. cit. note 46; Jacey Fortin, “Dam Rising in Ethiopia Stirs Hope and Tension,” New York Times, 11 October 2014; South Korea, Saudi Arabia and India competing for farmland on the Nile from Brown, op. cit. note 46.

⁴⁸ Julia Harte, “New Dam in Turkey Threatens to Flood Ancient City and Archaeological Sites,” National Geographic, 21 February 2014; John Vidal, “Water Supply Key to Outcome of Conflicts in Iraq and Syria, Experts Warn,” (London) Guardian, 2 July 2014; existing power plants and under construction from David Appleyard and Bethany Duarte, “Reaching for Turkey’s Hydropower Summit,” Hydroworld, at www.hydroworld.com/articles/print/volume-22/issue-5/features/reaching-for-turkey-s-hydropower-summit.html, 8 October 2014; Julian Allason, “Hasankeyf, Turkey: Soon-to-be Sunken Treasure,” Financial Times, 7 March 2014.

⁴⁹ Nicole T. Carter, Clare Ribando Seelke, and Daniel T. Shedd, U.S.-Mexico Water Sharing: Background and Recent Developments (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2013); Brian Clark Howard, “Historic ‘Pulse Flow’ Brings Water to Parched Colorado River Delta,” National Geographic, 22 March 2014; Alexandra Witze, “Water Returns to Arid Colorado River Delta,” Nature, vol. 507, no. 7,492 (20 March 2014), pp. 286–87; treaty between the United States Government and Mexico, “Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande,” at www.ibwc.gov/Files/1944Treaty.pdf, 14 November 1944.

⁵⁰ Appleyard, op. cit. note 33.

⁵¹ REN21, op. cit. note 6, p. 45.

⁵² Simon Hall, “China’s New Wager: Pulling Energy from the Ocean,” Wall Street Journal, 31 March 2014; Pentland Firth from REN21, op. cit. note 6, p. 46; DOE, “Maine Deploys First U.S. Commercial, Grid-Connected Tidal Energy Project,” press release (Washington, DC: 24 July 2012); Colin Woodard, “Maine Tidal Turbine Goes Online, First in North America,” Portland Press Herald, 13 September 2012.

⁵³ Types of pumped storage facilities from IEA, Technology Roadmap: Hydropower (Paris, 2012); pumped storage capacity from DOE, International Energy Statistics, op. cit. note 5; Europe additional capacity and offset fluctuations in wind and solar from Ward, op. cit. note 32; proposed U.S. projects double capacity from DOE, EIA, “Pumped Storage Provides Grid Reliability Even With Net Generation Loss,” Today in Energy, 8 July 2013.

⁵⁴ Share of electricity from hydropower from BP, op. cit. note 6.

Chapter 9: The Accelerating Transition

¹ For additional information, see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “2014: Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014); and Carbon Tracker Initiative and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Unburnable Carbon: Wasted Capital and Stranded Assets (London: 2013).

² U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (Washington, DC: 10 November 2014).

³ BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); Vishal Shah, Jerimiah Booream-Phelps, and Susie Min, 2014 Outlook: Let the Second Gold Rush Begin Update (New York, NY: Deutsche Bank Markets Research, January 2014); Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 8.0 (September 2014); Amory B. Lovins, “Let’s Celebrate, Not Lament, Renewables’ Disruption of Electric Utilities,” RMI Outlet, at blog.rmi.org, 6 February 2014.

⁴ Three times more efficient in Gary Kendall, Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age (Brussels: WWF, March 2008), pp. 79–86.

⁵ REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 2014), pp. 76-77, 129, 209; Government of Gujarat, Energy and Petrochemicals Department, Solar Power Policy—2009 (Gandhinagar: 6 January 2009); capacity from Bridge to India, India Solar Compass: Quarterly Update on the Indian Solar Market (New Delhi: January 2014), p. 10; FIT-driven from Bridge to India, India Solar Handbook (New Delhi: November 2012), p. 7; “A Tale of Two Markets: How National and State Incentives are Spurring Solar in India,” Greentech Media, 3 November 2011; average residential electricity consumption in Gujarat calculated from Amit Garg et al., “An Assessment of Household Electricity Load Curves and Corresponding CO₂ Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Gujarat State, India,” Energy Policy, vol. 66 (March 2014), pp. 568–84, with installed capacity from Bridge to India, India Solar Compass: Quarterly Update on the Indian Solar Market (New Delhi: January 2014), p. 10, and with 18 percent capacity factor from RESolve Energy Consultants, Sunrise in Gujarat: Year 2012 in Review (Chennai: 2013), p. 16.

⁶ REN21, op. cit. note 5, pp. 79, 130, 211; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE), “Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies,” map available at www.dsireusa.org/documents/summarymaps/RPS_map.pdf, updated September 2014; Iowa wind share from American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), “American Wind Power Reaches Major Power Generation Milestones in 2013,” press release (Washington, DC: 5 March 2014).

⁷ “Transcript: Gov. Jerry Brown’s Inaugural Address,” L.A. Times, 5 January 2015; DSIRE, op. cit. note 6.

⁸ DSIRE, “Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC),” at dsireusa.org/incentives/incentive.cfm?Incentive_Code=US13F, updated 14 November 2014; AWEA, “Federal Production Tax Credit for Wind Energy,” at www.awea.org/Advocacy/content.aspx?ItemNumber=797, viewed 17 November 2014; Solar Energy Industries Association, “Solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC),” at www.seia.org/policy/finance-tax/solar-investment-tax-credit, viewed 17 November 2014; REN21, op. cit. note 5, pp. 89–91.

⁹ International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: 2014), pp. 93–94, 239; Harald Heubaum, “Has There Ever Been a Level Energy Playing Field? Putting Renewables Subsidies in Context,” Carbon Brief, at www.carbonbrief.org/blog, 20 August 2012; Nancy Pfund and Ben Healey, What Would Jefferson Do? The Historical Role of Federal Subsidies in Shaping America’s Energy Future (San Francisco, CA: DBL Investors, September 2011).

¹⁰ IEA, op. cit. note 9, pp. 93–94; Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI), Achieving the G-20 Call to Phase Out Subsidies to Fossil Fuels, policy brief (Geneva: October 2009), p. 2, and GSI, “Fossil Fuels—At What Cost?” at www.iisd.org/gsi/fossil-fuel-subsidies/fossil-fuels-what-cost, viewed 27 February 2013; Paul R. Epstein et al., “Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1,219 (February 2011), pp. 73–98.

¹¹ World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014 (Washington, DC: 2014); World Bank, “State & Trends Report Charts Global Growth of Carbon Pricing,” press release (Washington, DC: 28 May 2014).

¹² Kristin Eberhard, “All the World’s Carbon Pricing Systems in One Animated Map,” Sightline Daily, 17 November 2014; World Bank, State and Trends, op. cit. note 11.

¹³ N. Gregory Mankiw, “Gas Tax Now!” Fortune, 24 May 1999, pp. 60–64; Lawrence Summers, “Let This Be the Year When We Put a Proper Price on Carbon,” Financial Times, 4 January 2015.

¹⁴ Eberhard, op. cit. note 12; World Bank, State and Trends, op. cit. note 11.

¹⁵ Elisabeth Rosenthal, “Carbon Taxes Make Ireland Even Greener,” New York Times, 27 December 2012; Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland’s Provisional Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2013 (Wexford, Ireland: December 2014), p. 9; Environmental Protection Agency, “Climate Change: Responses,” at www.epa.ie/irelandsenvironment/climatechange, viewed 5 January 2015.

¹⁶ Alan Durning and Yoram Bauman, “All You Need to Know About BC’s Carbon Tax Shift in Five Charts,” Sightline Daily, 11 March 2014.

¹⁷ Hannah Fairfield, “Best of Both Worlds? Northeast Cut Emissions and Enjoyed Growth,” New York Times, 6 June 2014; Kristin Eberhard, “Reggie Recommends,” Sightline Daily, 27 June 2014.

¹⁸ Lazard, op. cit. note 3; American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, “New Report Finds Energy Efficiency is America’s Cheapest Energy Resource,” press release (Washington, DC: 25 March 2014); IEA, Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 16.

¹⁹ World total electricity consumption for lighting is 20 percent of electricity consumption from IEA, “About Lighting,” at www.iea.org/topics/energyefficiency/subtopics/lighting, viewed 5 January 2015; up to 90 percent less energy than traditional lighting from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and DOE, Energy Star Program, “Lighting,” at www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=lighting.pr_lighting_landing, viewed 7 January 2015, and from Cree, Inc., “FAQ General,” at www.cree.com/Lighting/Tools-and-Support/FAQ-General, viewed 13 January 2015; world reduction in electricity used for lighting if household incandescent bulbs were replaced with compact fluorescents based on calculations by Earth Policy Institute in Lester R. Brown, “Worldwide Shift from Incandescents to Compact Fluorescents Could Close 270 Coal-Fired Power Plants,” Plan B Update (Washington, DC: 9 May 2007); energy savings enough to drive a Prius from New York to San Francisco based on Larry Kinney, Lighting Systems in Southwestern Homes: Problems and Opportunities, prepared for DOE, Building America Program through the Midwest Research Institute, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Boulder, CO: Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, June 2005), pp. 4–5.

²⁰ Hidetoshi Nakagami, “Present Status of Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policies in Japan,” presentation to Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, Tokyo, 8 October 2014; IEA, Energy Efficiency Market Report 2013 (Paris: 2013), pp. 172-75.

²¹ Natalie Obiko Pearson and Ganesh Nagarajan, “Solar Water Pumps Wean Farmers from India’s Archaic Grid,” Bloomberg, 8 February 2014.

²² Smiti Mittal, “World’s Largest Coal Miner Announces 1 GW Solar Power Plan,” CleanTechnica, 10 December 2014; “Coal India Signs Pact for 1,000 MW Solar Power Projects,” The Hindu Business Line, 8 December 2014; Solar Energy Corporation of India, “SECI Signs MoU with Coal India for Development of 1000 MW of Solar Projects,” at seci.gov.in/content/news_update/seci-signs-mou-with-coal-india-for-development-of-1000-mw-of-solar-projects.php, viewed 7 January 2015.

²³ U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/wpp, updated 14 April 2014; REN21, op. cit. note 5, pp. 64, 126; current electricity needs from BP, op. cit. note 3.

²⁴ Jesper Nørskov Rasmussen, “Wind Turbines Reached Record Level in 2014,” at energinet.dk/EN/El/Nyheder/Sider/Vindmoeller-slog-rekord-i-2014.aspx, 20 January 2015; goals from REN21, op. cit. note 5, p. 119, and from Justin Gillis, “A Tricky Transition from Fossil Fuel,” New York Times, 10 November 2014; electricity and heat in 2035 from Danish Government, The Danish Climate Policy Plan: Towards a Low Carbon Society (Copenhagen: August 2013), p. 7; Scottish Government, Energy in Scotland 2014 (Edinburgh: 2014), pp. 6, 29.

²⁵ Current wind share in Ireland calculated by EPI from monthly reports in EirGrid, “All-Island Wind and Fuel Mix Report,” at www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/all-islandwindandfuelmixreport, viewed 20 May 2014; 2020 Ireland goal and Germany from REN21, op. cit. note 5, p. 119; mostly wind from EirGrid Group, Annual Renewable Report 2013 (Dublin: 2013), p. 4.

²⁶ REN21, op. cit. note 5, p. 132; San Francisco Department of the Environment, “Zero Waste,” at www.sfenvironment.org/zero-waste, viewed 18 December 2014.

²⁷ Carsten Ender, “Wind Energy Use in Germany—Status 31.12.2013,” DEWI Magazin, no. 44 (February 2014), pp. 35–46; AWEA, op. cit. note 6; Sophie Yeo, “Fukushima to Use 100% Renewable Energy by 2040,” Responding to Climate Change, 31 January 2014; Ari Phillips, “Fukushima Pledges to Go 100 Percent Renewable While Japan Grapples with Nuclear Future,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 5 February 2014.

²⁸ Pledges from Li Shuo and Lauri Myllyvirta, The End of China’s Coal Boom (Greenpeace East Asia, 2014), p. 4; Edward Wong, “In Step to Lower Carbon Emissions, China Will Place a Limit on Coal Use in 2020,” New York Times, 20 November 2014.

²⁹ Jennifer Duggan, “China Hit by Another Airpocalypse as Air Pollution Cancer Link Confirmed,” (London) Guardian, 24 October 2013; Louisa Lim, “Beijing’s ‘Airpocalypse’ Spurs Pollution Controls, Public Pressure,” NPR, 14 January 2013; vulnerable groups include children, elderly, and those with respiratory or cardiac illness from Clean Air Partnership, “Air Pollution and Your Health,” at www.cleanairpartnership.org/air_pollution_and_your_health, viewed 12 November 2014; quote from Li and Myllyvirta, op. cit. note 28, p. 9.

³⁰ “Chinese Coal Miner Faces Bankruptcy as Cash Supplies Dwindle,” South China Morning Post, 8 July 2014; China’s new climate regulation from World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014 (Washington, DC: 2014), pp. 64–67.

³¹ Giles Parkinson, “Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Transformational Moment’ in Renewables Investment,”RenewEconomy, 31 January 2014; Nelson D. Schwartz, “Banks Look to Burnish Their Images by Backing Green Technology Firms,” New York Times, 10 June 2012; Morgan Stanley, 2013 Sustainability Report (New York: 2014), p. 27; John Vidal, “Big Power Out, Solar In: UBS Urges Investors to Join Renewables Revolution,” (London) Guardian, 27 August 2014.

³² Forbes, “The World’s Billionaires,” at www.forbes.com/billionaires/list, updated 18 November 2014; Noah Buhayar and Jim Polson, “Buffett Ready to Double $15 Billion Solar, Wind Bet,” Bloomberg, 10 June 2014; Todd Woody, “Warren Buffett In $2 Billion Solar Deal,” Forbes, 2 January 2013; Anupreeta Das, “Warren Buffett Puts Wind in Berkshire’s Sails,” Wall Street Journal, 23 October 2014; SunPower Corp., “MidAmerican Solar, SunPower Corp. Synchronize Solar Star Development to the Grid,” press release (Phoenix, AZ, and San Jose, CA: MidAmerican Solar and SunPower Corp., 9 January 2014); Felicity Barringer, “Warren Buffett’s Big Bet on Renewables in Nevada,” New York Times, 7 October 2014.

³³ Turner Enterprises, Inc., “Turner Renewable Energy,” at www.tedturner.com/renewable-energy, viewed 18 November 2014; Southern Company, “Southern Company Subsidiary and Turner Renewable Energy Acquire New Mexico’s Largest Solar Facility,” press release (Atlanta, GA: 23 May 2014); wind power from Phillip Evans, Turner Enterprises Inc., e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 25 November 2014.

³⁴ Christopher Helman, “America’s Oil And Gas Billionaires,” Forbes, 4 March 2013; Mark Jaffe, “Phil Anschutz and Wind Energy in Wyoming: Entrepreneur’s Latest $9 Billion Idea,” Denver Post, 20 January 2013; Power Company of Wyoming, “Putting Wind to Work for Carbon County,” at www.powercompanyofwyoming.com, viewed 4 September 2014; Ari Phillips, “Wind Farm Powering a Million Homes Nears Approval Deep in Coal Country,” Climate Progress, blog, at thinkprogress.org/climate, 11 August 2014; TransWest Express LLC, “Delivering Wyoming Wind Energy to the West,” at www.transwestexpress.net/index.shtml, viewed 23 October 2014; Kara Choquette, Power Company of Wyoming, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 24 October 2014; U.S. Census Bureau, State & County Quickfacts, at quickfacts.census.gov, electronic database, updated 8 January 2014.

³⁵ Bloomberg Philanthropies, “Bloomberg Philanthropies Commits $50 Million to Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign,” press release (New York: 21 July 2011).

³⁶ Risky Business, “About the Project,” at riskybusiness.org/about, viewed 6 January 2015; Henry M. Paulson, “The Coming Climate Crash,” New York Times, 21 June 2014; Jaime Fuller, “Tom Steyer’s Long Road to Becoming the Environment’s Donor-in-chief,” Washington Post, 27 February 2014; Coral Davenport, “Meager Returns for the Democrats’ Biggest Donor,” New York Times, 6 November 2014.

³⁷ Stephen Lacey, “Verizon Executive on $40M Solar Investment: ‘It’s About Driving Shareholder Value,’” Greentech Media, 26 August 2014; Verizon, “Verizon Plans Major Expansion of Its On-Site Green Energy Program,” press release (New York: 25 August 2014).

³⁸ Largest retailer from Fortune, “Fortune 500 2014,” at fortune.com/fortune500/wal-mart-stores-inc-1; Walmart, “Environmental Sustainability: Energy,” at corporate.walmart.com/global-responsibility/environment-sustainability/energy, viewed 16 November 2014; Walmart, “Walmart Puts Price of Solar Power on Rollback,” press release (Mountain View, CA: 9 May 2014); Walmart, “Walmart Builds on Leadership of Commercial Solar Deployment and Expands On-Site Solar Energy Projects,” press release (Bentonville, AR: 20 November 2014); Walmart, “White House Energy Event, Remarks by Bill Simon,” transcript (Mountain View, CA: 9 May 2014).

³⁹ EPA, Green Power Partnership, National Top 100 Partner List (Washington, DC: 27 October 2014); EPA, Green Power Partnership, 100% Green Power Users (Washington, DC: 27 October 2014).

⁴⁰ Nick Coons, “A Solar Project on Top of an Old Oil Field in California’s Kern County,” Official Google Blog, at googleblog.blogspot.com, 10 September 2014; Heather Clancy, “Google’s $145 Million Clean Energy Investment Puts Solar Atop Old Oil Field,” Forbes, 13 September 2014.

⁴¹ Boeing, “2014 Environment Report: Cleaner Operations,” at www.boeing.com/aboutus/environment/environment_report_14/3.1_cleaner_operations.html, viewed 14 November 2014.

⁴² Johnson Controls, 2013 Business and Sustainability Report (Milwaukee, WI: 2014), p. 34.

⁴³ EPA, Green Power Partnership, Long-term Contracts (Washington, DC: 27 October 2014); NextEra Energy Resources, “NextEra Energy Resources Signs PPA with Google Energy to Supply Wind Power,” press release (Juno Beach, FL: 21 April 2011).

⁴⁴ EPA, “University of Oklahoma Partner Profile,” at www.epa.gov/greenpower/partners/partners/universityofoklahoma.htm, viewed 6 January 2015; Silas Allen, “University of Oklahoma, OG&E Tout Wind Power Partnership,” NewsOK, 19 February 2013; EPA, “Partner Profile: Oklahoma State University,” at www.epa.gov/greenpower/partners/partners/oklahomastateuniversity.htm, viewed 6 January 2015; Ohio State University, Office of Energy and Environment, “Ohio State Receives Green Power Partner of the Year Award from U.S. EPA,” at oee.osu.edu/green-power-partner-2013.html, 23 September 2013; EPA, “Partner Profile: The Ohio State University,” at www.epa.gov/greenpower/partners/partners/theohiostateuniversity.htm, viewed 6 January 2015; carbon-neutral from The Ohio State University, Climate Action Plan (Columbus, OH: April 2011).

⁴⁵ Government occupies nearly 500,000 buildings and has some 600,000 vehicles and spends $500 billion per year from Matthew Daly, “Obama to Feds: Boost Renewable Power 20 Percent,” Associated Press, 5 December 2013; Jason Miller, “Inside the World’s Biggest Buyer,” Federal News Radio, 11 June 2012; information on federal efficiency standards can be found at DOE, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), “Government Energy Management,” at energy.gov/eere/efficiency/government-energy-management, viewed 5 December 2014.

⁴⁶ New goal in “Federal Leadership on Energy Management,” presidential memorandum (Washington, DC: White House, 5 December 2013); old goal in Daly, op. cit. note 45; Barack Obama, “Address to Joint Session of Congress,” 24 February 2009, at www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-of-President-Barack-Obama-Address-to-Joint-Session-of-Congress.

⁴⁷ Figure of 24 miles per gallon in 2013 from EPA, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2014 (Washington, DC: 2013), p. 4; 54.5 miles per gallon in 2025 from EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “EPA and NHTSA Set Standards to Reduce Greenhouse Gasses and Improve Fuel Economy for Model Years 2017-2025 Cars and Light Trucks,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: August 2012); federal tax credit for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles from DOE, EERE, “Federal Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles Purchased in or After 2010,” at www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml, viewed 19 September 2014; additional tax credits in some states from Plug-in America, “State and Federal Incentives,” at www.pluginamerica.org/incentives, 4 December 2014.

⁴⁸ Zachary Shahan, “China 2013 Electric Car Sales Report,” Clean Technica, 27 January 2014; “BMW Sees China as Biggest Electric Car Market by 2019,” Bloomberg News, 28 May 2014.

⁴⁹ EV share of car sales from Amsterdam Roundtables Foundation and McKinsey and Company, Evolution Electric Vehicles in Europe: Gearing up for a New Phase? (Amsterdam: April 2014), p. 10; incentives from Tali Trigg and Paul Telleen, Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 (Paris: IEA, April 2013), p. 20; European Commission, “200 Charging Points for Electric Vehicles to Open in France with EU Support,” press release (Brussels: 15 December 2014).

⁵⁰ John Vidal, “Big Power Out, Solar In: UBS Urges Investors to Join Renewables Revolution,” (London) Guardian, 27 August 2014; Patrick Hummel et al., Global Utilities, Autos & Chemicals: Will Solar, Batteries and Electric Cars Re-shape the Electricity System? (Zurich: UBS, 2014).

⁵¹ Vidal, op. cit. note 50; Hummel et al., op. cit. note 50.

⁵² Atif Ansar, Ben Caldecott, and James Tilbury, Stranded Assets and the Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaign: What Does Divestment Mean for the Valuation of Fossil Fuel Assets? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013), p. 19; “About Fossil Free,” at gofossilfree.org/about-fossil-free, 30 September 2014.

⁵³ Ansar, Caldecott, and Tilbury, op. cit. note 52, pp. 10, 14.

⁵⁴ Kjetil Malkenes Hovland, “Denmark’s Wind Power Output Rises to Record in First Half,” Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2014; RenewableUK, “Wind Power Beats Nuclear and Coal in Record-breaking August,” press release (London: 1 September 2014); BP, op. cit. note 3.