Somewhere, I imagine, there’s a small group of people proud to be counted among the Friends of Avian Flu, or FAF for short. I suspect they have a catchy statement, such as “Keeping the nightmare alive” . . . their challenge is to keep the bird flu forever in the public eye.
It was like something out of a conspiracy movie.
A deadly, bird-transmitted virus was about to sweep the world—and the secretary of defense of the United States just happened to have substantial holdings in the company making the very product that just might put a dent in the pandemic.
How convenient.
In an e-mail labeled “BIRD FLU—U.S. PROPAGANDA!” the conspiracy theorists laid out the “facts,” so to speak. A truncated version of the e-mail that surfaced in 2006:
Do you know that “bird flu” was discovered in Vietnam 9 years ago?
Do you know that barely 100 people have died in the whole world in all that time?
Do you know it was the Americans who alerted us to the efficiency of the human anti-viral Tamiflu as a preventative?
Do you know that Tamiflu barely alleviates some symptoms of the common flu?
Do you know who markets Tamiflu?
Roche Laboratories.
Do you know who bought the patent for Tamiflu from Roche Laboratories in 1996?
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Do you know who was then president of Gilead Sciences Inc. and remains a major shareholder?
Donald Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defence of the USA.
Do you know that sales of Tamiflu were over $254 million in 2004 and more than $1 billion in 2005?
Do you know how many more millions Roche can earn in the coming months if the business of fear continues?
President’s Bush’s friends decide that Tamiflu is the solution for a pandemic that has not yet occurred and has caused a hundred deaths worldwide in 9 years. This medicine doesn’t so much as cure the common flu. So we end up paying for medicine while Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush get richer. Thank the RED states!
I’ll say this: Unlike some conspiracy theories (e.g., the faked moon landing), this one isn’t a wild fantasy concocted and perpetuated by paranoid minds. That said, there are some errors and some holes in the bird flu panic conspiracy.
We were never really sure—we’re still not sure—how scared we should be about this whole bird flu thing. It’s a very real virus, and there is still concern that it could become a pandemic, especially in some third world countries.
In June 2007, scientists and researchers met for a three-day conference in Rome to assess the bird flu problem.
“In most cases the virus is rapidly detected and kept under control, as most countries are equipped with improved response systems,” said a story from the Associated Press.
”However, in nations that combine a high density of population and unsafe poultry management, the situation remains serious.”
As of this writing, the H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed nearly 200 people and has seriously depleted poultry stocks worldwide.
“Experts fear that the virus could mutate into a form easily spread between people, potentially igniting a flu pandemic,” said the AP.
That’s what we’ve been hearing for a few years now—that there’s the potential for a pandemic. And that’s what has doctors, scientists, and the media treading the tricky border between responsible reporting on a possible danger, and panic peddling. So far, we haven’t seen evidence of human-to-human transmission; everyone who contracted the virus had extensive contact with infected birds.
But there is the possibility of a mutated, stronger strain of the virus.
Let’s take a look at the claims that Rumsfeld and his pals orchestrated some kind of conspiracy to push bird flu panic—and cash in on the public’s worries.
First, the bird flu was discovered in humans in Hong Kong, not Vietnam. However, the death toll listed in the e-mail was pretty accurate for the time, and it is true that “the Americans”—that is, the Centers for Disease Control—named Tamiflu as a possible treatment for avian flu.
As for the charge that Tamiflu “barely alleviates” common flu symptoms—the drug is designed to go after the virus itself, not to alleviate symptoms. Nevertheless, it actually has proven to be effective in alleviating some flu symptoms some of the time. As of this writing, Tamiflu’s effectiveness in combating bird flu in humans has not been 100 percent determined.
It is true that Rumsfeld holds a substantial number of shares in the company that produces Tamiflu, that he has profited from this association and would profit even more if there were a bird flu pandemic. It would be in his best financial interest if every family in the world stocked up on Tamiflu, just in case.
Rumsfeld urged President Ford to develop a swine flu vaccine in the 1970s—and the vaccination program caused thousands of cases of paralysis and dozens of deaths (more people actually died from the vaccine than from the swine flu itself). In the 1980s he was president of the company that owned the patent on aspartame, and he used his clout to get long-denied FDA approval for the controversial artificial sweetener.
And he sold us a load of horseshit about the Iraq War in the 2000s.
So it’s difficult to dismiss the bird flu conspiracy out of hand— but there exists no proof that Rumsfeld deliberately exaggerated the bird flu situation just so he could make even more money. (He’s already filthy rich.) He can’t be that conscience-free, greedy, and ruthless, can he?
Rumsfeld recused himself from any administration decisions regarding Tamiflu. News reports said he didn’t sell his shares because he didn’t want to appear to be cashing in on the bird flu semipanic—but by hanging on to the shares, it could give the appearance that he felt the price of his stock would only go up.
Maybe Rummy’s best move would have been to sell the shares—and to donate all the profits to medical research in third world countries. Sure, he might have been accused of cynical grandstanding, but so what? It could have been one of the few times in his long and controversial career when some folks would have said, “Nicely done, Rummy. Well played.”