If we were to single out the major intellectual limitation at this age, it would be your child’s feeling that everything that happens in his world is the result of something he has done. . . . Reasoning with your two-year-old is often difficult. After all, he views everything in extremely simple terms.
American Academy of Pediatrics, Caring for Your Baby and Young Child
One of the biggest differences between a toddler and an adult is also one of the simplest: an adult knows a lot more about the world. This is a simple question of brain development; the ability to retain knowledge, or even to grasp the concept of object permanence, is limited in babies. In his pioneering theory of cognitive development, Jean Piaget suggests that while infants develop some degree of object permanence by age seven months, the ability to think symbolically about the world takes far longer. One toddler parenting manual explains, “During the toddler stage . . . higher mental processes simply haven’t developed yet.”1 A leading child development textbook puts it similarly: “Although children’s capacity to relate symbols to each other in a meaningful way increases dramatically during the preschool years, it does not include the ability to relate them in a consistently logical way.”2 It is difficult for toddlers to understand cause-and-effect relationships—that is, that α causes β—when they barely know what α and β actually are.
To be fair to toddlers, however, they lack the cognitive capacity to learn through conventional educational means.3 They are simply too young. As children mature, they develop the ability to sit in a classroom setting and imbibe knowledge. Expecting this of most preschoolers would seem unfair. After all, they call it “preschool” for a reason.
Donald Trump may have the cognitive capacity of an adult, but when it comes to what he knows about politics, public policy, and international affairs, he shares a toddler’s limitations. His short attention span makes it difficult for him to learn facts in a conventional manner, according to Tony Schwartz, who shadowed Trump for 18 months to write The Art of the Deal. Schwartz explained that Trump possessed “a stunning level of superficial knowledge and plain ignorance,” attributing the deficit to a short attention span. He added, “I seriously doubt that Trump has ever read a book straight through in his adult life.”4 Similarly, biographer Michael D’Antonio warned after Trump’s election that “he’s going to be very frustrated with the flow of information if they try to press it upon him in the way that staff would press information upon a normal President. And I could see him lashing out and sending people out of his office because he doesn’t want to deal with data.”5 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell acknowledged, “This is a guy who is largely unfamiliar with a whole lot of stuff, as we know.”6 Trump’s economic advisors have repeatedly complained to the press that his knowledge of international economics is meager at best. One of his former advisors told a reporter, “Frankly I don’t think he really understands any of this.”7
These assessments jibe with Trump’s unintentional displays of ignorance as the Commander in Chief. In his first 1,000 days as President, Trump made well over 13,000 false or misleading claims.8 Some of these falsehoods are conscious lies; some are, to use a technical term of philosophy, complete bullshit.9 In many instances, it would appear that Trump genuinely does not know what he is talking about. Daniel Dale, a journalist who has meticulously fact-checked Trump for his entire time in office, notes that, “a solid chunk of [Trump’s false claims] seem confused or uninformed rather than deliberate.”10 Trump’s appalling lack of knowledge across a wide array of issues guarantees that he will also get a lot wrong in his public statements. When asked about subjects ranging from Frederick Douglass to school busing, his answers reveal a lack of contextual knowledge. He frequently relies on phrases like “we’re looking into it” and “we’ll see what happens” to cover for his ignorance.11
Trump also has demonstrated a tendency, once he learns a basic fact, to repeat that fact as if no one else were aware of it. When he said “nobody knew that health care could be so complicated” in early 2017, it prompted widespread derision because of course everyone in Washington knew it.12 As the Washington Post’s Jenna Johnson observed, “Trump’s public remarks are filled with dozens of similar comments. They often begin with some variation of the phrase ‘Most people don’t know . . . ’ and end with a nugget of information that many of those surrounding him—fellow world leaders, diplomats, journalists, politicians or aides—do indeed already know.”13 On issues ranging from France being America’s first ally to Lincoln being a Republican, the Toddler in Chief tries to sound like the smartest person in the room while unintentionally revealing his very small knowledge base. As the examples in this chapter demonstrate, there are significant gaps in Donald Trump’s factual knowledge. Unlike any of his predecessors, Trump possessed zero experience in any branch or level of government. His only legal experience has been suing others and being sued, which did not prep him for the finer points of constitutional law. Trump’s lack of interest in the intricacies of legislation or executive management compound the problem.14 As a result, Trump has repeatedly commanded his staffers and Cabinet Secretaries to do things that, as President, he has no legal authority to do.15 A few weeks after coming on as White House Chief of Staff, John Kelly said, “The president just really doesn’t understand anything about that. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” By 2018, he had condensed his assessment to “he’s an idiot. It’s pointless to convince him of anything.”16 Kelly was hardly the only Trump official to reportedly make that assessment. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, and National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster all called him some variation of “idiot.”17
Trump’s lack of public service and knowledge of governance is compounded by a complete absence of practical lived experience. Trump’s privileged upbringing shielded him from “common sense” knowledge about how the other half lives. During the January 2019 government shutdown, Trump suggested that furloughed government workers would be fine, because local grocers would extend them temporary credit.18 He appears to know the fictional world of Mayberry R.F.D. better than 21st-century America. He avoided military service during the Vietnam era with a medical diagnosis of bone spurs, written by a podiatrist as a favor to Trump’s father.19 Trump claimed that his attendance of a secondary-school military academy was tantamount to military experience. Steve Bannon, an actual Navy veteran, countered that Trump was incapable of handling the families of soldiers killed in combat: “He’s not that guy. He’s never really been around the military. He’s never been around military family. Never been around death.”20
Trump’s lack of experience is matched only by his lack of knowledge about foreign policy. In his initial interviews with the Washington Post and New York Times during the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump displayed a weak understanding of world politics; follow-up interviews on the topic suggested little subsequent learning.21 In GOP primary debates, Trump demonstrated ignorance of concepts like the nuclear triad or the Trans-Pacific Partnership. On the campaign trail, Trump backtracked, prevaricated, and flip-flopped on key foreign policy issues numerous times.22 In his first few weeks as President, Trump continued to demonstrate ignorance on numerous foreign policy matters ranging from the particulars of his own executive orders to a refugee deal with Australia to the contents of a nuclear arms treaty with Russia.23
Trump’s lack of policy understanding has pronounced effects on the way he is staffed. Even before he was inaugurated, Steve Bannon warned incoming CIA Director Mike Pompeo that Trump “has a steep learning curve.”24 Trump’s first Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, invoked that phrase repeatedly when discussing Trump in his May 2019 congressional testimony.25 White House advisors have voiced uneasiness with leaving Trump without supervision during negotiations. Stephen Miller, for example, was convinced in January 2018 that Trump would agree to a grand bargain on immigration if he were left alone with Senators pushing for that deal. At a key meeting—the one in which Trump referred to West African countries as “shitholes”—Miller took care to pack the Oval Office with as many immigration hawks as possible.26 Similarly, John Kelly repeatedly expressed fears in January 2018 that if Trump were left alone with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, he would acquiesce on immigration.27 As Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo demonstrated similar uneasiness over Trump spending too much time alone with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
To be fair, no one enters the presidency with firsthand experience of the job. This century’s other Presidents—George W. Bush and Barack Obama—were also inexperienced compared to their predecessors. And most Presidents have gaps in their policy knowledge, particularly in foreign affairs. The difference, however, is that prior Presidents could recognize and attempt to compensate for their shortcomings. George W. Bush, for example, demonstrated a willingness to be tutored on foreign policy questions. Obama took care to hire seasoned foreign policy experts before launching his presidential campaign. Almost all Presidents prior to Trump possessed the self-awareness to know, to some degree, what they did not know. Furthermore, they were all genuinely interested in the presidency as an institution. In contrast, Trump admitted in the summer of 2016 that he had never read a single biography of a President and had no intention to do so in the future.28
The Toddler in Chief lacks the necessary metacognition to know what he does not know. Like a small child who thinks that no one is wise to him, Trump has consistently claimed expertise on subjects that he clearly knows nothing about.29 During the 2016 campaign, Trump boasted that, on foreign policy, “My primary consultant is myself and I have a good instinct for this stuff.”30 Despite Trump’s rather limited tech savviness, he has claimed expertise about wind energy, the aeronautics of Boeing planes, and self-driving cars.31 He repeatedly brags that he is a “very stable genius”; as one former White House official explained, “Part of it comes from his insecurities about not being perceived as intelligent.”32 These insecurities make it difficult for his staff compensate for his lack of knowledge. Such efforts always run the risk of setting off his temper. Trump is the President with the least experience in government in American history and also the one most hostile to expert advice.
The president’s deep ignorance leaves him more vulnerable to conspiracy theories and data shaped by advisors leery of upsetting him. Trump’s first Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert, repeatedly tried to convince Trump that Ukraine did not meddle in the 2016 election, but the Toddler in Chief persisted in his belief.33 Even as the economy started cooling off in the summer of 2019, Trump’s White House advisors continued their practice of only showing him rosier economic assessments. According to the Washington Post, “Trump has a somewhat conspiratorial view, telling some confidants that he distrusts statistics he sees reported in the news media and that he suspects many economists and other forecasters are presenting biased data to thwart his reelection.”34
Trump’s ignorance of international affairs has also negatively affected his relations with allied leaders. In the run-up to the 2017 G-7 summit, Trump’s staffers warned foreign leaders that contradicting or lecturing the President on climate change would be counterproductive.35 Nonetheless, Trump’s knowledge deficits have prompted leaders to fact-check him—a gambit certain to irk the 45th President. President Trump complained about British Prime Minister Theresa May’s “schoolmistress” tone, particularly when she corrected him in public.36 He has been similarly hostile to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s lectures.37 Some might argue that frosty personal relationships with world leaders are a function of diverging interests. This contradicts Trump’s own views, however. Multiple accounts suggest that he believes foreign relations are all about strong personal ties between leaders. Indeed, nearly all of Trump’s interactions with world leaders are premised on his belief that his ability to charm and cajole foreign leaders is more important than policy goals or strategic aims.38
Trump’s defenders might argue that the 45th President’s deal-making abilities compensate for his ignorance, that well-informed advisors can compensate. These arguments do not hold up. Trump’s lack of knowledge erodes his ability to lead. Indeed, his ignorance enables his subordinates to pursue policies independently, including those at variance with Trump’s broader wishes. As Georgetown political scientist Elizabeth Saunders has demonstrated, inexperienced leaders are less able to constrain their subordinates from engaging in bureaucratic conflicts or pursuing risky actions.39 Their lack of direct experience and knowledge makes it more difficult for them to effectively monitor their subordinates. Saunders concludes that “a base of substantive, domain-specific knowledge is important, and is distinct from procedural experience and acumen (such as good organizational or bargaining skills).”40 The Toddler in Chief does not possess that base of knowledge.
Manifestly clear is that Trump’s ignorance about policy and process make it harder for both him and his staff to do their jobs properly. In his first 1,000 days Trump stumbled repeatedly on questions of policy. Briefing him was next to impossible. In his House testimony, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, “I had to adapt to the fact that it wasn’t going to be useful to give him something and say this is, you know, this is an article worth reading or this is a brief.” While he acknowledged that this was very different from how he operated, he explained, “The task for the rest of us was to learn how to operate in a way that supported him given that that’s his style. It wasn’t our job to try to change the way he does things.”41 His staff, if anything, exacerbated the problem. They declined to correct his public assertions when they were factually incorrect, because they feared making him look uninformed. In August 2019 Trump asserted, “The First Lady has gotten to know Kim Jong Un and I think she’d agree with me, he is a man with a country that has tremendous potential.” Trump’s claim was patently false, since Melania Trump had never met the North Korean dictator. White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham’s clarification was that, while the First Lady had never met Kim, “the President feels like she’s gotten to know him too.”42
The result has been akin to letting a proud toddler make decisions: a radically uninformed President fully confident that he knows everything he needs to know.