“This generation may be the one that will face Armageddon.”
—Ronald Reagan, People magazine, December 26, 1985
It was just after three when my phone rang. I stared at it for a moment, then jerked it off the hook and said nothing. Three o’clock in the morning is not a late hour for some people, but they are usually not the calm ones. People who work the long distance lines at the darkest hour of the morning tend to be a special breed. When the phone rings at three it will not be the Culligan man, or anybody else with a straight job.
There was no sound on the other end of the line, but I could hear a person breathing. “Speak up!” I screamed finally. “What do you want?” “Hello,” said the voice. “Are you busy?”
It was my friend the political strategist, calling from Washington. His nerves were getting away from him, he said. He wanted to talk about almost anything except politics.
“Call a priest,” I said. “I’m in the politics business, and tonight I need some numbers.”
“On what?” he said. “The Senate?” He laughed harshly. “Don’t bother. It makes no difference. The Democrats might gain control, but Reagan will still have the veto. Our only hope is to stonewall him until 1988. That’s when the deal will go down.”
“You fool!” I said. “I warned you to stay away from that Crack. One of these days they’re going to put you in a cage. Your children will come around on Sundays and poke you through the bars with sharp sticks.”
“So what?” he replied. “We will all be in jail pretty soon. I will be worshiped like Walt Whitman.”
“Never mind that,” I said. “Get a grip on yourself. There are 34 seats up for grabs. All the Democrats need is a net gain of four. What are the numbers for Georgia? I also need Missouri and California. And what about that quack in Alaska? Does he have a chance?”
“Are you kidding?” he said. “That’s Doc Olds. He’s a sleeper. He might even win.”
“Maybe,” I said. “How about seven to one?”
He agreed, and we spent the next two hours fixing numbers on the other 33 Senate races. More than half were locked up, but we shook the list down to a dozen or so that looked interesting enough to gamble on.
Alaska—Presumed safe for Republican Frank Murkowski. . . . But Alaska’s economy has crashed worse than Texas, and unknown Demo challenger Dr. Glenn Olds might pull off an upset. Odds: 7-1 against.
Missouri—Tom Eagleton is giving up a safe Demo seat here, and former GOP Gov. Kit Bond has a huge name recognition advantage over current Lt. Gov. Harriet Woods, who might possibly win. Odds: 3-1 against.
Louisiana—Russell Long gives up another safe Demo seat here, probably to Republican Rep. Henson Moore, a heavy favorite to win 50 percent of the vote against four Democrats in the open primary Sept. 27. . . . But if Moore fails to get 50 percent, odds against Demos will drop from 8-1 down to 5-2. A very long shot, but possible.
California—There is no reason why Alan Cranston should be in trouble here, but some of the smart money says he is—against standard-brand millionaire GOP Rep. Ed Zschau, a yellow jacket Party Animal who in any normal year would consider himself fortunate to be allowed to shine Cranston’s shoes. Odds: 3-2 Cranston.
Colorado—Another Demo seat vacated, this time by Demo presidential front-runner Gary Hart. His friend and ally Tim Wirth, a high-profile congressman and proven Kennedy-style vote-getter in House races, is said to be in trouble from GOP Rep. Ken Kramer. Don’t bet on it. Odds: 7-5 against Kramer.
Nevada—Even the boys in the back room are wringing their hands about this one. Two-term GOP Sen. Paul Laxalt, the gray eminence and key strategist of the Reagan dynasty, is giving up a seat that is currently rated 50-50 between Republican Jim Santini and Demo Rep. Harry Reid. Laxalt is too much a classic Party man to give up a Senate seat unless he thought he could guarantee his successor. But he may be wrong. He is running his own high-tension big-stakes presidential candidacy for 1988, lurking in the weeds behind George Bush, and he might have lost his touch on the local scene. Remember Oscar Bonavena. He thought he was safe while strolling through the grounds of a local whorehouse called Mustang Ranch—but he was mysteriously slain when a sniper put a 30.06 bullet through his neck. Odds: 6-5 Reid.
North Carolina—Former governor and Hubert Humphrey clone Terry Sanford is overdue to win an election, and recently appointed GOP incumbent James Broyhill is not. Broyhill is serving out the term of former Sen. John East, who recently committed suicide under sad and morbid circumstances. The natives are still uneasy about it. Odds: 3-2 Sanford.
Florida—Reagan family favorite Paula Hawkins is in serious trouble here. Gov. Bob Graham is a finely organized political hot rod with major ambitions and a blue-chip staff with few weak links. He will beat her like the family mule. Odds: 5-2 Graham.
Georgia—GOP incumbent Mack Mattingly is the easy favorite here, but Atlanta Congressman Wyche Fowler is feeling uppity after flogging former Carter best boy Hamilton Jordan in the Demo primary. Mattingly is a Barbie Doll with no clear constituency and is not resting easy as the front-runner. As a 2-1 underdog, Fowler is one of the best bets on the board.
Alabama—We are looking at two pigs in a poke, here—but some pigs are more equal than others, and hard-edge fundamentalist fanatic Jeremiah Denton is a genuine dingbat who will seize almost any opportunity to make a fool of himself and perhaps even blow his big lead over Demo Congressman Richard Shelby. But probably not. Odds: 7-1 Denton.
With eight weeks to go until Election Day, the numbers are holding comfortably at just over 50-50, or maybe 51-49 to the Democrats, depending on whose numbers you like. My own figure is 52-48.
The ’86 Senate elections will be critical. A Democratic victory would not change the world, but it would at least slow the berserk white-trash momentum of the bombs-and-Jesus crowd. Those people have had their way long enough. Not even the Book of Revelation threatens a plague of vengeful yahoos. We all need a rest from this pogrom. Ronald Reagan is an old man. It will be the rest of us who will face Armageddon.
September 1, 1986