Marks out of ten

ASKED TO RATE LABOUR’S performance as an opposition since 2015, party members gave an average score of 5.7 out of 10. Jeremy Corbyn’s 2016 leadership voters awarded 6.8, compared to 3.0 from voters for Owen Smith.

This was slightly more generous than the 5.2 awarded by 2019 Labour voters as a whole, and considerably more so than the 2.9 given by the public in general.

Labour defectors gave an average score of 3.3 – though switchers from Labour to the Lib Dems (3.6) were slightly more generous than switchers from Labour to the Conservatives (2.3). 22

Antisemitism

Nearly three quarters of Labour Party members said the issue of antisemitism in the party was invented or wildly exaggerated by the right-wing media and opponents of Jeremy Corbyn.

23Even so, most of those who thought this also said that the leadership should have done a better job of dealing with the issue. Only just over one in five, and only 6% of 2016 Corbyn voters, agreed that “antisemitism was a real problem in the Labour Party, and that is why it got so much attention.”

This was largely echoed by Labour Party members in our focus groups: “The antisemitism stuff was rubbish. There may have been the odd incident, but it was hyped, weaponised. Other parties didn’t get the same scrutiny.” But some also felt the issue should have been handled better: “He should have said there’s no room for prejudice in the Labour Party, it’s not what we stand for, we’re going to have a really open, visible investigation and we’ll stamp it out – not do it all behind closed doors.”

“Why couldn’t he say, ‘yes we’ve got a problem and I’m dealing with it and I’m sorry’? Why couldn’t he say that?”

Former Labour voters in our focus groups often raised the subject spontaneously. Though there were mixed views as to how widespread the problem was and whether Jeremy Corbyn himself was guilty of it (and some linked it to his reported support for terrorist groups), they regarded his apparent inability to deal with the problem convincingly as an indictment of his leadership: “Corbyn has a dark shadow – links to terrorism, the antisemitism stuff. I don’t know much about it but it was there;” “He denied things but there was proof, and he argued black was white;” “He didn’t do anything about the antisemitism. He knew it was rife, he knew it was, and he denied it all the way along. You lose respect for someone then;” “Why couldn’t he say, ‘yes we’ve got a problem and I’m dealing with it and I’m sorry’? Why couldn’t he say that?” “I was very unhappy about the Jewish stuff. Even if it wasn’t all true, the insensitivity was stunning.” 24

Still your party?

Just under a quarter of those who voted Labour in 2017 but not in 2019 said they still identified with Labour or thought of them as their party – though this was true for nearly four in ten of those who switched to the Lib Dems.

More than half of those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives said they used to identify with Labour or think of them as their party, but not anymore.

Among those who did vote Labour in 2019, just over half said they identified with the party. A further 16% of Labour voters said they no longer identified with Labour or thought of them as their party, though they once did.25

If not you, who?

Asked who they thought Labour did stand for these days, several in our focus groups said, “I don’t think they know themselves,” and a few said the party was still for “the underdogs, the less well off.”

“It’s for young people and students, and the unemployed. It used to be for normal working people, who pay for their house, pay for their car.”

26However, most thought remaining Labour voters tended to fall into one of two categories: older voters who were too set in their ways ever to change (“people like my mum who’s 84 and voted Labour all her life and on her way out”), or a basket that included young people, students, the unemployed, ethnic minorities and affluent middle class socialists with few material concerns.

“It was for middle-class people in London who go on marches to get rid of Brexit.”

“It’s for young people and students, and the unemployed. It used to be for normal working people, who pay for their house, pay for their car;” “I don’t think they’re interested in supporting single mums, families, but affluent people with plenty of money who don’t need their help. If you’re working class, your priorities are paying the bills, keeping your car on the road, not keeping the swimming pool open or whether your kids have access to university. Middle class people are the ones who appear on Question Time;” “It used to be that the Conservatives looked after the rich and Labour looked after the working class. Now the Conservatives still look after the rich but Labour look after people on benefits. No-one looks after the middle, the working poor;” “Corbyn has a very big student following. Students don’t live in the real world, do they?”; “I do think they’re in a bubble in London. I don’t think they venture out to see what life is really like;” “Ethnic groups. They play that card all the time;” “First-time voters. They’re all about dropping the voting age to 16. That’s because they knew they’d lost us;” a current Labour supporter “probably lives in North London and they’re a college lecturer or something like that. A Hampstead socialist. A middle class radical;” “It was for middle-class people in London who go on marches to get rid of Brexit.” 27

“They all stood up and said they wanted to do what was best for their constituents. But they didn’t listen to us.”

Several also remarked that Labour in parliament had shown itself to be entirely self-interested, rather than trying to represent their voters: “When they were not making decisions about Brexit it was for the party, not for the people. They just cared about getting into power;” “They all stood up and said they wanted to do what was best for their constituents. But they didn’t listen to us;” “Plebs like us voted to leave but they’re the ruling class and they wanted to keep ruling.”

“They say ‘we’ve got 300,000 members’… They’re ignoring the fact that the voters who don’t go to rallies and conferences, who just go out and do a day’s work, still go out and vote.”

Some also felt that the party had been taken over by activists whose agenda was far removed from that of traditional Labour supporters: “They say ‘we’ve got 300,000 members’, which are all quite young and left-wing and generally remain. So they’ve changed their principles on that kind of minority. They’re ignoring the fact that the voters who don’t go to rallies and conferences, who just go out and do a day’s work, still go out and vote.”

Local Labour

For our former Labour voters, the idea that the party no longer represented them and had stopped listening was closely related to the feeling that Labour took them for 28granted. As well as local MPs voting how they wanted on Brexit irrespective of their constituents, some also felt that the local Labour establishment, including councils, did not do as good a job as they ought to.

“They take our votes for granted and think we were born yesterday.”

In the election, “they thought they were sitting pretty. Certain villages have always been Labour, they thought they were guaranteed the vote. They didn’t bother canvassing. I didn’t have anyone knock on my door;” “They take our votes for granted and think we were born yesterday.” More broadly, “I don’t think they get out and listen to people like they used to. They used to be part of the local community, but they became complacent. They thought ‘whatever we do we’re going to get the votes off the local people, especially in the North,’ but it didn’t work like that;” “The council has been Labour all my life and they are shocking. Fly tipping is awful;” “Stoke has always been Labour but it hasn’t done us any favours. If you walk round, some of it is quite scary. It was voted the 9th worst place to live;” “Bridgend has grown exponentially but how many new hospitals and GPs have we got? You’d think they’d take these problems back to Westminster. There are more and more people but there is no infrastructure, no plans, nothing;” “Rotherham Council wouldn’t talk about the child abuse in case it caused racial tensions;” “In Conservative-led councils, the roads are better, the schools are better. Labour councils are so run down it’s unbelievable. I lived in Portsmouth before. In Stoke, you need a four-by-four to drive on the streets.”

“There’s a guy down in Teesside, Ben Houchen, who’s actually doing what he said… It’s easier to vote Conservative when you can see them doing things for you.”

29Some drew comparisons with what they had seen of Conservative-run areas: “There’s a guy down in Teesside, Ben Houchen, who’s actually doing what he said, whereas Labour councillors will stab you in the back. He’s got the airport up and running, he’s following through. It’s easier to vote Conservative when you can see them doing things for you.”

Closer to the people?

A majority of Labour members, including nearly two thirds of 2016 Corbyn leadership voters, said they thought Labour’s values and general outlook on life were closer to those of the British public than the Conservatives’.

Voters themselves were more likely to think the Conservatives’ values were closer (36%) than Labour’s (20%), though 44% said neither party’s was closer, or that they didn’t know.

30More than half of those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives said they thought the Tories’ values were closer to those of the British public, with only one in 20 thinking this was truer of Labour. Labour defectors to the Lib Dems, however, were more than three times as likely to think Labour values were closer to those of the public at large than to think this was true of the Conservatives.

True or false?

Of five statements about Labour, the one that found the highest level of agreement was that the party “never really understood why so many people voted to leave the EU.” More than two thirds of all voters agreed, including nearly 9 out of 10 Labour defectors to the Conservatives.

31Most also agreed that “Labour seems to have completely different values now from the one it had a few years ago.” Two thirds of defectors (including 83% of switchers to the Conservatives) agreed, and 2019 Labour voters themselves were more likely to agree than not.

A majority (52%) concurred that “Labour’s policies seemed to look backwards to the past and would not work in the modern world.” Seven in 10 Labour-Conservatives switchers agreed, as did more than one in five 2019 Labour voters themselves.

The statement “I would trust Labour more than the Conservatives with Britain’s public services” was the most divisive, with 40% agreeing and 41% disagreeing. There was a sharp divide among Labour defectors: three quarters of Labour-Lib Dem switchers agreed with the statement, while a majority of Labour-Conservative switchers disagreed.

There was a similar split over the contention that “at its heart, Labour still fundamentally understands and represents ordinary working people.” Voters as a whole disagreed by 44% to 40%, but while Labour-Conservative switchers disagreed by 59% to 29%, those who moved from Labour to the Lib Dems agreed with the statement by 63% to 28%.

The good old days?

We asked Labour members and voters as a whole who they considered the best Labour leader of recent times, beginning with Michael Foot in the early 1980s.

For the public in general, including 2019 Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour defectors, the answer was Tony Blair, with John Smith in second place.

According to Labour members, the best recent leader of the Labour Party was Jeremy Corbyn.

32Former Labour voters in our focus groups tended to agree that Tony Blair had been the most effective Labour leader they could remember (at least until he “got too big for his boots” and “caused a boatload of trouble”), though there were also some takers for John Smith and Harold Wilson.

“With Blair, you felt you had a bit of a connection with him. He understood what needed doing.”

Many had liked what seemed to be a sensible, moderate approach that had produced practical changes for the better: “I liked it when they were building children’s centres;” “1997, centre-left, things can only get better. There was an optimism;” “It was 33Conservative-lite, but supporting people and putting money into things like social care;” “With Blair, you felt you had a bit of a connection with him. He understood what needed doing. He was a leader, he was leading the party in a certain direction. They had an identity. He encapsulated the working people.”

Labour Party members in our groups were more torn about the Blair years: “When he was first there, I thought, we’ve got to move with the times. Now I think he’s a war criminal. I despise that man;” “The hope was that there would be more fairness, but I don’t think that happened. He moved to the right;” “It was a wasted opportunity;” “The Sun backed him because he was a neoliberal.” On the other hand, “they did invest in schools and infrastructure and things;” “A lot of school roofs were fixed under the Blair banner. A lot of people went to university.”

Battle of the brands

In our 10,000-sample poll, people were offered a selection of words and images and asked which they most associated with the Labour and Conservative parties. They were also able to write a short explanation of their choice of image. Labour defectors’ most-chosen words and phrases to describe the Labour Party – “out of touch,” “confused,” “weak,” “un-trustworthy” and “tired” – speak for themselves, as does “for the many,” which some still considered to be Labour’s redeeming feature, even if the party had lost its way.

The lazy bloke on the sofa tended to stand for an indulgent attitude to benefit claimants and, as we often heard in focus groups, an apparent preference for those who do not work rather than those who do. The Division 2 Football Club represented the 34idea that the party was second rate, while the frightened woman embodied a fear of Labour being elected, and especially of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

The miner carried two different meanings. For some, as with “for the many,” it was a reminder of Labour standing with the workers – but for others the image signified a backward-looking approach to the economy and a potential return to strikes and industrial strife.

When it came to the Conservative Party, the collected word choices of Labour-Conservative switchers – “optimistic,” “hope,” “mean what they say,” “patriotic,” “opportunity” and “reasonable” – are self-explanatory.

35

Among the images, Big Ben tended to signify strength, belief in the UK and the return of sovereignty to Britain after Brexit; the policeman represented their preferred approach to law and order and the promised recruitment of new police officers; the soldier represented patriotism, tradition, Britishness and a stronger approach to national defence; and the man in a suit stands for a combination of business, entrepreneurship and professionalism – though with some saying he represents a typical rich Tory voter.

36Some former Labour voters in our groups felt the Conservatives had changed and was no longer the party of privilege.

“I think they’ve changed. They’re more for the people, all the country, not just one class.”

This was partly due to Brexit and the personality of Boris Johnson: “It feels like we’ve actually got a leader of the country. He comes across as passionate about the country and the people. If it’s all a front, he does it very well;” “When he took over, he said, right, you want Brexit, we’ll do it. On the other side of the House they were saying, ‘nah, we’re not doing that, we don’t want to’;” “In his acceptance speech in Downing Street he acknowledged that a lot of people, especially up North, who had never voted Conservative before had voted Conservative. And he actually got up and said, ‘I won’t let you down’. I’m not saying he will keep that promise but he didn’t have to say that, and it quite impressed me.”

There was also a view that the Tories now represented the priorities of working people more than Labour did: “I think they’ve changed. They’re more for the people, all the country, not just one class. It used to be that the Conservatives were for the rich, but I don’t think that’s true anymore;” “I think the Conservatives are less stuffy than they were. They’re trying. And they’re going to have to, or they’re not going to get people’s votes;” “Boris seems more like a real person than a politician. He reminds me a bit of Churchill. He gets stuck in and gets on with it;” “The Conservatives seem more aspirational, while Labour are quite regressional, looking back all the time, with things like the four-day week. Anyone who’s worked all their life, has bought a house, wants to keep hold of that, and that means the Conservatives.” 37

“I don’t think the Tories are to blame for austerity. Gordon Brown sold all the gold and they left a note saying there was no money left.”

Moreover, many said they held Labour at least as responsible as the Conservatives for austerity, which they felt had been made necessary by the previous government’s mismanagement: “I don’t think the Tories are to blame. Gordon Brown sold all the gold and they left a note saying there was no money left;” “We were up to our earholes in 38debt;” “It was a process we probably had to go through. It was hard but the country needed it. They spent and spent. There was a lot of waste.”

In our poll, we asked whether people thought certain descriptions applied to the Conservative Party or to Labour. “Wants to help ordinary people get on in life” was the description most often picked to describe Labour, but only by 35%. Around a quarter picked “its heart is in the right place” and “stands for fairness.” Fewer than one in five chose “on the side of people like me” and “stands for fairness,” though slightly fewer still chose these descriptions for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives were most associated with being “willing to take tough decisions for the long term” (by 38%, compared with 9% for Labour), having “the right priorities for the country” (by 29%, compared to 17% for Labour) and “clear about what they stand for” (also by 29%, more than three times the proportion who chose this for Labour). More also considered the Tories “competent and capable,” “united” and thought they “will do what they say.”

Labour values?

When we asked our focus groups of former Labour voters how they would describe the party’s values, several said it was hard to say with the party so divided: “It’s more difficult to say because of the discord. Labour hasn’t had any direction really since about 2016. There seemed to be a lot of conflict and contrast within one party. How can you vote for a party who don’t even know which way they want to go?”

“It’s not a mainstream political party anymore, it’s a cult around Corbyn.”

39A number of themes did emerge, however. One was that the party had been taken over by unrepresentative activists who were much further to the left than most people, including Labour voters: “They’re pandering to a minority of members, the Momentum movement, which is too left-wing for me, I’m more middle of the road. I’ve been watching what’s going on and thinking ‘there’s no way I’m voting for this shower’;” “Thatcher and the pit closures was 40 years ago, it’s ancient history now. I’ve got to look at what’s best for me and my family. Is it socialism bordering on communism, or the centre right, a focus on business, looking forward?” “A lot of them are quite educated people but it’s fashionable to be well-off and educated and be a socialist. They haven’t lived the kind of life we’ve all lived in a steel town;” “Corbyn and Momentum have hijacked the Labour Party. If any moderate Labour MP speaks out, they get rentamob. McDonnell is the ringleader;” “It’s not a mainstream political party anymore, it’s a cult around Corbyn.”

“Sarah Champion in Rotherham was booted out for saying the vast majority of child abuse groups were from ethnic minorities… Why? It’s 100% true.”

Partly because of this, some also felt the party had come to embody an excessively politically correct or “woke” culture, which would be intolerant of what they considered sensible, mainstream views: “Sarah Champion in Rotherham was booted out for saying the vast majority of child abuse groups were from ethnic minorities. She was speaking the truth, but because it was ‘racially insensitive’ it was, ‘oh, you can’t say that’. Why? It’s 100% true;” “They’re classing themselves as liberals but won’t let anyone else have a different viewpoint;” “You’re a bigot if you don’t agree there are 125 different genders;” “They can be woke, but they can also be vitriolic. I’ve heard them say things to Conservatives where I thought, ‘well, that wasn’t very nice’;” “The other day Jeremy Corbyn 40even did his pronouns! He said, ‘my name’s Jeremy Corbyn and my pronouns are ‘him’ and ‘his.’ You can Google it!”

“They knew us because they were part of us, but not anymore.”

At the same time, Labour seemed to have become disconnected from the kinds of people – like our participants – whom they used to represent: “They knew us because they were part of us, but not anymore;” “I was born and bred Labour, they were for the working man. But now they’re all bloody millionnaires, loads of them have got three or four houses. They’re hypocrites;” “Since Blair and Brown, Labour have become totally London-centric. If it doesn’t exist outside the Greater London area, they’re not really interested. They forgot about the real world. I can’t relate to what they’re talking about at all;” “They don’t know what everyday life is like here. Especially when you’ve got all the Lithuanians, Poles, all the ethnic majorities in this town. They’re just used to their own social life;” “They just thought ‘we’ll do what we think is right for the working-class people,’ but a lot of people have moved on from the 70s, thank God.” This in turn helped explain why Labour seemed not to represent them in areas like immigration and welfare, on both of which the party was much too “giving”: “they seem to want to open the borders for everybody;” “They want to go back to the old way when people on benefits earned more than I probably do.”

“They take you for granted in places like this that they think are the heartland. But if you raise something they don’t like, it’s like Kiosk Keith – the shutters come down.”

As a result of this disconnection, some felt Labour had failed to understand how what might once have been considered the working class had changed, and seemed not to 41understand or approve of their aspirations: “They’ve tried to go back to hard left Labour policies that they think represent the working-class man or working-class families, but at the same time working-class families have changed. They’re not the same as they were in the late 70s or early 80s. Policies like renationalising energy providers, I think, that’s what it was like before I was born. It seems a backward attitude;” “The lines are blurred between the classes, which is as it should be – we shouldn’t stick people in these different bands. We’re all the same, we all came in the same way and we’re all going out the same way. So to try and aim at the traditional working-class vote – it’s not there anymore.”

“They want everyone dependent on the state in one way or another.”

“If someone is successful, will they still vote Labour? So they want to keep them down;” “They want more of everybody the same than people being entrepreneurs and that sort of thing. They want everyone dependent on the state in one way or another;” “They’re champagne socialists, aren’t they? People who have got lots of money but say ‘vote Labour’ to look after us poor people.”

This led many to feel that Labour had taken them and their votes for granted while understanding and representing them less and less: “They expect you to vote the way your father did, which we can see isn’t always the case now. They think, ‘oh, they’ll vote for us anyway’;” “They relied on a heavy-spending manifesto, arrogantly assuming their voters are so uneducated that they won’t ask who’s paying for it. The working man knows things aren’t free;” “They take you for granted in places like this that they think are the heartland. But if you raise something they don’t like, it’s like Kiosk Keith – the shutters come down.”

42In our Labour Movement focus groups, it was clear that some members and supporters recognised many of these problems, and even acknowledged that they themselves were in something of a bubble: “I was on holiday during the referendum and there were leave posters everywhere. Loads of people outside London wanted to leave. It really shocked me;” “Labour used to be a working-class party, but it has shifted to being an ultra-liberal party. It has lost its identity;” “The average person would probably agree with Labour’s principles but they’re dressed up in this super-liberal modern way, very woke, and some traditional Labour voters might find that a bit repellent;” “They may be from a working-class background but they have moved to better careers and salaries, and they hear these policies and think ‘that’s going to affect me’. Taxing what he thinks are high earners but are really not anymore, they’re standard middle-class earnings;” “What is a working-class person now? What does that look like? I don’t think they even know.”

Some members recognised a divide, but simply thought they were on the right side of it: “If I lived in a different part of the world that was more homogenous, I might think differently too;” “We fact-check the news, and I’m not sure everyone does;” “They have been duped. If they are being spoon-fed by the media, they’re probably not seeing both sides of the argument. If you get both sides of the argument, how could you come to that conclusion?” “We’re not polar opposites, everyone wants their child to have a decent education, equal opportunities. So it just comes down to morals.”