Was it a one-off?
More than 7 in 10 Labour members agreed that many Labour-Conservative switchers will go straight back to Labour at the next election either because they voted purely over Brexit in 2019 (22%), or because the government’s policies will prove so damaging that they will regret having voted for it (49%).
44Only just over a fifth – and only one in ten 2016 Corbyn voters (but more than half of those who backed Owen Smith) – felt that “whatever the reason they switched to the Conservatives, many will not go back to Labour unless the Labour Party changes very significantly.”
Members were evenly divided as to whether traditionally Labour seats that fell to the Tories would naturally return to Labour in the next couple of elections (46%, including a majority of 2016 Corbyn voters) or might now stay Conservative for many years to come (46%).
Asking Labour defectors themselves a similar question produced a somewhat different answer. Only one in five agreed that “2019 was an unusual election and the reasons I didn’t vote Labour were very specific – I will probably vote Labour again next time.” This included more than a third of Labour-Lib Dem switchers, but only 14% of 2017 Labour voters who moved to the Tories.
More than half of Labour defectors – including three quarters of Labour-Conservative switchers – said instead that “Labour will need to change very significantly before I’ll consider voting for them again.” 45
More broadly, most of those who did not vote Labour in 2019 said that as things stand, they could never see themselves doing so – though this included only 40% of those who voted Lib Dem, compared to 74% of 2019 Conservatives.
46While 6 in 10 Labour-Lib Dem switchers said they could see themselves voting Labour again in the future, switchers to the Tories were more circumspect, with 49% saying “don’t know.”
In our focus groups, former Labour voters sometimes emphasised that “we’re not necessarily Tories, we’ve just been pushed this way because there is no-one standing up for us,” and a few were clear that as far as they were concerned they had lent the Conservatives their vote for one election only. But most said they were open to voting Conservative again if Boris Johnson delivered, as they hoped and expected him to: “Boris has pumped a shedload of money into the NHS and is recruiting more police officers. Even in the first three weeks he was making all the right moves. If he’s going to continue in that vein, more power to the guy;” “If things improve, I’d have no hesitation in voting for Boris again. I don’t think you can jump back to Labour as soon as Brexit is done. Or I won’t, personally.”
“I don’t think you can jump back to Labour as soon as Brexit is done. Or I won’t, personally.”
“It’s not like we’re convinced Tories for life. We could change every time.”
Above all, they were at pains to point out that they would take each election as it comes and could not be taken for granted by any party: “It’s not like we’re convinced Tories for life. We could change every time;” “It does send a message to the greedy ones in London that if they rile us up again, we can go whichever way we like;” “We’re in the age of price comparison sites.” 47
“My grandad always said to me, you always vote Labour. But I got to the point where I thought, I can’t anymore, it’s the end of the road. So I won’t say that to my lad when he’s older, I won’t say you always vote Labour.”
“As the generations go on, people are more educated, they understand more what they’re voting for;” “There’s no loyalty now. I’ll take each case as it comes;” “My grandad always said to me, you always vote Labour. But I got to the point where I thought, I can’t anymore, it’s the end of the road. So I won’t say that to my lad when he’s older, I won’t say you always vote Labour.”
Show me a sign
Though they often named Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn among their primary reasons for not voting Labour, most former Labour voters in our groups did not think the party would be fixed once these two factors were out of the way. As well as a strong and credible leader, the party needed to be united, have sensible priorities that showed they understood the modern world and people like them, to project patriotism, and adopt believable, costed policies. Many expected this to take a decade or more.
“They’ve got a long way to come back. It’s not going to happen in the next ten years.”
Many said Labour needed to “start from the beginning,” which in turn meant getting back in touch with the kind of people they had lost: “They need to show a greater level 48of respect. They treat voters like idiots. The smugness, the virtue-signalling – people don’t want to be told they’re idiots for considering voting Conservative. There is a big attitude problem;” “They need to recruit from communities they’re representing, not someone from a university students’ union who’s full of crap from the word go;” “Hold their hands up and say we got it wrong, we went in the wrong direction, things are going to change. But they have to follow it up as well.”
“They need to show a greater level of respect. They treat voters like idiots. The smugness, the virtue-signalling… There is a big attitude problem.”
In terms of policies, many wanted to see Labour move to a more selective attitude to immigration, a more centrist approach to the economy, spending and debt, and an understanding of aspiration: “Be less communist. They wanted us all to be at that level, with no-one striving for excellence.”
Some also wanted a guarantee that Labour now accepted Brexit. For some, this meant “a recognition that they should have gone with the public. Their downfall was that they tried to overturn the democratic vote of the public. They should hold their hands up and say they got it wrong.”
Rebound or rethink?
More than two thirds of members agreed that “Labour in 2019 had the right policies – with a new leader and a strong campaign, the party will be in a good position to 49challenge the Conservatives at the next election.” This included 83% of those who voted for Jeremy Corbyn in the 2016 leadership election.
Only 12% of 2016 Corbyn voters agreed that the party “needs a fundamental rethink of its policies and its whole approach before it will be able to compete seriously at another general election – the view taken by two thirds of those who voted for Owen Smith in 2016.
When it comes to rebuilding electoral support, only just over half of Labour members agreed that the party’s priority should be “trying to win back former Labour voters who switched to the Conservatives in 2019.”
More than one third thought the most important thing was either to reach out to other non-Conservative voters and unite them behind Labour (21%), or to persuade Labour voters who stayed at home in 2019 to turn out again next time (14%). 50
Members were even more closely divided over whether the best route to an election victory was “a clearly left-wing, socialist manifesto” (44%, including 59% of 2016 Corbyn voters) or “a more centrist manifesto than the one presented in 2019” (48%, including 85% of 2016 Smith voters).
Voters as a whole, meanwhile, were much more likely to think a more centrist manifesto would give Labour the best chance of winning (55%) than that a left-wing, socialist manifesto was the answer (8%). 51
This included a clear majority of Labour defectors (which includes those who did not vote in 2019), and a large majority of those who switched to the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats.
Compromise with the electorate?
Labour members as a whole were more likely to agree that “the most important thing is to win a general election, even if that means making some compromises on Labour’s principles or policies” than that “it is more important to stand up for the right principles and policies than it is to win a general election,” by 53% to 38%. 52
Those who voted for Jeremy Corbyn in the 2016 leadership election took the opposite view, saying principles and policies were more important than winning by 50% to 39%. Nine out of ten 2016 Smith voters were prepared to make compromises to win a general election.
Most Labour members in our focus groups felt there would need to be a move towards the centre before they could win another election (though not everyone: “Don’t go to that murky place in the middle! Stay on the left!”) They sometimes said they knew they expected to find this process uncomfortable: “I have very strong values but it’s not just about me. Listening to people we don’t agree with has never been more important;” “It’s so difficult because I want Labour to be left, but to win it has to be more middle.”
Most also said the party needed to understand its former voters, sometimes implicitly acknowledging that they currently did not : “People changed their minds for a reason. Find out why and win them back. Don’t rush into it;” “We need to be proactive; we can’t wait for a catastrophe. We’ve got to reach out to people. Don’t just say they must be racist or right-wing.”
53However, some admitted they would find certain policy shifts very difficult. For example, should Labour have a more restrictive approach to immigration? “Curtailing freedom of movement? I’d have a real problem with that;” “I think if we were not open to accepting people, I’d be very uncomfortable with it;” “We could have been more informative about what the reality was.” What should be done about the idea some people have that Labour always wants to spend too much money? “That’s a media thing. The Conservatives do it as well, but they only ask Labour ‘where’s the money coming from?’” “I don’t think that’s fair. We want to spend a lot; we just need to justify the figures better – where it’s coming from and what we’re going to do with it.”
We’ll be back?
Asked what they thought would be the result of the next general election, more than one in three – including 40% of Labour defectors – said they didn’t know. Of those with an opinion, most expected the Conservatives to be re-elected, while 17% expected a hung parliament and only 6% expected a Labour victory. More than half (52%) of those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives expected another Tory victory at the next election.
Our focus groups of former Labour voters certainly reflected this. Most expected another Conservative majority and felt it would take a Tory implosion for Labour to have a chance.
“The only way someone else would get in is if they mess up. I mean, really mess up. It would have to be post-apocalyptic.”
54Though many noted that this partly depended on the effects of Brexit, they often noted that things currently seemed to be going in the right direction: “He’s talking about an Australian immigration system, recruiting police, funding the NHS – people have been talking about it for years but he’s doing it.” Some also wondered ruefully what Boris Johnson could do to put his voters off: “He’s got loads of children, he’s an adulterer, he’s been fired for lying to his employer, he’s under suspicion for misuse of public funds – what else could he do?”; “The only way someone else would get in is if they mess up. I mean, really mess up. It would have to be post-apocalyptic.”
Labour members were much more optimistic about their prospects. In our poll, only 15% (including only 9% of 2016 Corbyn voters) said they expected another Conservative majority, while 37% anticipated a hung parliament. More than one in five expected Labour to win a majority in four- or five years’ time.
55Some party members in our focus groups were similarly sanguine – either because they thought people had switched only because of Brexit, or because they expected them to be horrified by the consequences of electing Boris Johnson: “I think a significant proportion will go back because they voted on a single issue;” “Brexit will be done, and if the new leader is not a semi-Marxist they will be able to bring the recovery forward;” “With a new face at the head of the party, the next election will be a totally different thing;” “It will be a Labour landslide because the Tories will have turned the country into something out of Mad Max by then.”
Others were much less sure: “If we let Boris run with it he will eventually do something horrific. If we get someone votable we could maybe get a hung parliament. But that’s the best we can hope for;” “People lost a lot of faith in Labour, and I don’t think they will change enough. The people coming forward for the leadership are too entrenched;” “When you go into the booth you do what you usually do. The fact that people have done something different is quite telling.” 56