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MORE VIOLENCE

We had to destroy the city to save it.

US army officer, South Vietnam, 1968

Against this background, climate change has been underestimated and indeed, up to now, largely unconceptualized as a danger to society. It appears inconceivable that such a phenomenon defined by natural science might produce social disasters such as system breakdown, civil war or genocide, especially at a time when everything still seems to be in order. Yet no great flight of the imagination is needed to visualize such things, and a number of present-day social conflicts, wars and security measures can already be attributed to environmental factors.

  1. Climate wars are already occurring in regions where destatification and privatized ‘violence markets’ have become the norm. Here, any negative change in environmental conditions creates further scope for entrepreneurs of violence and makes it more likely that armed conflict will become permanently entrenched and spill across international frontiers.
  2. Such consequences of climate change as soil degradation, flooding, water shortages or hurricanes limit the possibility of making a livelihood and deepen the problems already present in the region.
  3. Outbreaks of violence in vulnerable societies, which are the most likely to suffer from climate changes and to be the hardest hit, will increase the flow of refugees and migrants, both within and between countries. And this will bring further violence in its train.
  4. Cross-border migration is reaching the islands of prosperity and stability in Western Europe and North America, causing their state authorities to tighten security policy and to strengthen their security apparatuses. In external policy, this involves strategies that seek to shift conflict from border control posts to the authorities in other countries and to increase the measures available for use against border violators.
  5. The terrorism that has grown in step with global modernization processes is legitimated and strengthened by inequalities and injustices resulting from climate change.
  6. This constantly raises the surveillance needs of the state, restricting the spaces of freedom in society and increasing the level of state-monopolized violence.
  7. New spaces outside the rule of law, such as those established in the war against terror, increase the level of state violence and expand the area behind the scenes of society. The use of force is displaced; the arm of the state hits at people before any crime is committed.
  8. Shifting baselines change the perception of problems and increase the public acceptance of new security measures and proposed solutions. Norms of conduct and standards of normality are redefined.
  9. These processes interact with one another. Growing numbers of refugees, more intense security efforts, international resource conflicts, and so on, generate autocatalytic effects. Sudden environmental disasters stretch the capacities of OECD and developing countries to the limit, and have a totally devastating impact on failing societies. The resulting stress and fear of new threats lead to unpredictable reactions.

The scenario that is taking shape is one that puts the global configuration of societies under pressure, resulting in tensions and violence of varying forms and intensity. The social climate is more complex than the physical climate, but this does not mean that we cannot identify the potential threats and violence that may become a reality in the future. Climate changes work in two directions: they may provoke violent conflicts or deepen existing ones; but they may also interact, accumulate and set up indirect chains that produce unexpected consequences. It is high time that environmental effects were taken into account in the description and analysis of social conflicts. Most of the changes outlined above have long since passed the stage of hypotheses and are already shaping the reality of human societies: there are climate wars here and now; people are already being killed, dying from other causes and taking the road of flight. Empirically, there is not the slightest reason to believe that the world will remain as we know it.