It took an army of kind, generous, and patient people to write this book. First, I must thank Robert C. Merton, who inspired me to write it, helped plot out the structure, and provided helpful comments on the chapters. You reminded me what risk is: whatever is not risk-free.
I am beyond grateful to everyone I interviewed and profiled in this book. Your stories are what made this book possible. You took a risk by letting me tell your life story. I hope I did you justice.
I also had a small army of readers, especially Robin Epstein and Jason Levine, who read multiple drafts of every chapter and offered invaluable feedback. I also got very useful comments from Emily Rueb, Stacey Vanick-Smith, Peter Hancock, Chris Wiggins, Lisa Cowen, Byron Rogers, Kodjo Apedjinou, Praveen Korapaty, Jenna Reinen, Hal Vogel, Ross Fermer, David Pullman, Jill Stowe, Brandon Archuleta, and Peyo Lizarazu.
Most of the topics in this book were new to me. I had the crazy idea that financial economics can explain any market, but first I had to learn about these markets. Often this required infiltrating a whole new, sometimes secretive, subculture. That would not have been possible without the army of experts who were kind enough to spend hours explaining how it all works and introducing me to the right people.
I am grateful to Jeremy Lemur for arranging all my interviews in the Hof brothels, Dennis Hof for giving me free rein in his brothels—I wish you had lived to see this book—and Madam Suzette for encouraging the women to speak with me. A special thanks to Farrah Banks, Cassandra Claire, and Ruby Rae. Thanks to Scott Cunningham for help with the data.
Jon Sloss, Ross Fermer, and David Shaheen and his whole team at JPMorgan made the movie chapter possible. I also must thank Dan Goldstein and Jenna Reinen for explaining to me, an efficient-markets fundamentalist, why behavioral economics is so important. And a big thank-you to Mike Naft and Osi Gerald for sharing your stories and introducing me to everyone at the Fortune Society.
I am grateful to all the people in Kentucky who gave me so much of their time and explained the secrets of their industry to me: Frank Mitchell, Emmeline Hill (in Ireland), Grant Williamson, Bernie Sams, David Lambert, and Ed DeRosa.
A huge thank-you to the person at Carnival who transcribed my two-and-a-half-hour interview with Arnold Donald. I don’t know your name, but I am eternally grateful.
I am grateful to Mark Healey and everyone at BWRAG, especially Ian Masterson and Liam Wilmot, who were so welcoming. I owe a debt of gratitude to Chris Gough; when I cold-called you and said I was writing a book about finance and wanted to interview surfers, you did not miss a beat and said, “You made the right call.” At that moment I knew this chapter would work.
Thanks to Max Boot for introducing me to General H. R. McMaster and to Kevin Kawasaki for explaining how the army manages risk.
A big thank-you to Kevin Delany, Lauren Brown, Jason Karaian, and Kabir Chibir at Quartz. Kevin, you took a risk and believed in me. You gave me the opportunity and platform to explore Quartzy markets, which made it possible to develop as a writer and as an economist. I needed that to pull this off.
A huge thank-you to my editor, Stephanie Frerich, and everyone at Portfolio, especially Bria and Rebecca, who immediately got this book and loved it as much as I do. Your edits made this book everything it is. Maureen Clark, your copy edits were phenomenal; thank you for taking such care and attention, and making me sound like a much better writer. Another big thanks to my agent, Mel Flashman, who made this process so much fun.
And a big thanks and an apology to anyone I missed; I am sure there are many of you.
And finally, I owe everything to my wonderful, supportive family—my mother, my father, Steve, Terry, Josh, Staci, and Dakota. You never questioned any of my life choices. You held my hand through every minute of graduate school. You remained unwavering in your support, even when I did some very strange things with my degree. You made it possible for me to feel safe enough to take risks.