Washington, D.C.
August 24
President Taylor stood before the three tall windows overlooking the garden. He was accustomed to making difficult decisions; it came with the job. All too often, lives were at stake. This call was no different, except maybe in regard to the number of people he was placing in peril. He recalled a poem, one he’d been required to memorize as a young student.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
He paused, repeating the line, his voice barely louder than a whisper, “Theirs but to do and die.”
With two naval ships swiftly sunk and tensions with China nearing the breaking point, was he being reckless, prideful? Was he repeating the errors of British commanders who, during the Crimean War in 1854, ordered the Light Brigade on their futile charge, dooming two-thirds of the men?
A familiar voice interrupted his introspection.
“Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.”
President Taylor turned, facing his Secretary of State.
“Lord Alfred Tennyson, if memory serves me well.”
“Paul, I didn’t hear you enter.”
“I’m sorry, sir. Should I wait outside?”
The President waved his hand. “Walk with me. I need some fresh air.”
The two men exited the tall glass door opening onto the Rose Garden. Walking slowly, a contemplative President Taylor voiced his concern. “Have I made the right decision?”
“You mean by sending the Gerald R. Ford strike group to the South China Sea? To the Spratly Islands?”
Taylor nodded. He stopped and faced Paul Bryan. “Paul, you’ve been an integral member of my cabinet from day one. I think you know that I value your counsel.”
“Thank you, sir. We’ve been tested before and have always prevailed. The carrier strike group is the best there is. I have confidence they will succeed.”
Taylor frowned. “But this weapon, this ship killer—we have no means of defense.” Secretary Bryan wanted to rebut the President’s statement, but he knew the truth as well as Taylor did.
“We can’t take out the launching sites, so what’s the tactical value of sending the carrier into harm’s way? Hell, we don’t even know what the launch vehicle is. It could be a sub or surface ship. It could be a secret silo on one of those islands and we just missed it.” Taylor sighed heavily.
To Paul Bryan’s eye, his boss had aged ten years in the last ten hours.
“Am I repeating the mistakes made by those arrogant British officers who ordered the Light Brigade to charge entrenched Russian cannon? Four-thousand five-hundred men and women serve on the Ford. It’s their lives I’m gambling with.”
“We can’t pull back the fleet, sir,” Bryan said. “To do so would concede the entire Western Pacific to China.”
“You’re assuming China is the power behind the attacks.”
“Assuming, for the sake of argument, that North Korea is somehow capable of carrying out these launchings—and mind you, we have no reason to believe they possess the technology to fabricate the warheads—it doesn’t materially change the balance of power in that region of the world. The U.S. Seventh Fleet is the only force able to check Chinese expansionism. If we pull back, China becomes the second superpower. Beijing has laid claim to almost all of the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Her sphere of influence will cover more than half of Asia plus the seas stretching east to Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and south to Malaysia.
“The mineral wealth beneath those waters could represent a staggering fortune. China is thirsty for oil, and many experts think there are enormous undiscovered reserves waiting to be claimed. If that’s true, it would be a boon for China’s economy.”
“I don’t see that as a bad thing,” Taylor replied.
“No sir, it’s not. But the South China Sea is a major shipping route. Five trillion dollars of sea-borne trade passes annually. If China refuses to allow open access under historical freedom of navigation agreements, the impact will be felt by every country that trades with Southeast Asia.”
“I’ve heard that argument before. But isn’t this simple fear mongering? Sure, China may clamp down on shipping and charge fees for passage, or forbid some ships altogether based on the flag they fly—and they may not. So what? I really don’t see this issue as materially different from the Panama Canal.”
“I beg to differ. Control of the Panama Canal was transferred to Panama by two treaties, collectively called the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. It was the second of the two documents, the Panama Canal Treaty, that actually transferred control of the canal as of December 31, 1999. However, the first document, commonly known as the Neutrality Treaty, provides that the United States will retain the right to defend the canal from any threat that might interfere with equitable access by ships of all nationality. In essence, the U.S. maintains the right to use military force to keep the canal open.”
“I’m familiar with the Neutrality Treaty. And yet we don’t see China or Russia complaining that the U.S. should relinquish influence over the canal. What if President Chen made a similar proposal regarding shipping through the South China Sea? Isn’t it time that we look at China as a trading partner and not a military threat?”
“Perhaps. However, the legal claims put forth by China to the disputed islands in the South China Sea and the East China Sea are not clear. The number of islands subject to the disputed claims is quite numerous.”
Taylor raised his eyebrows. “You’re not telling me anything we haven’t already discussed—in detail.”
“Respectfully sir, it is my duty to remind you of our obligations to our allies—Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines—who also have legitimate claims contradicting those of China. This is a complicated matter that must be resolved through diplomacy and the international courts—not through threat of force.”
Taylor had resumed his walk, turning the corner and strolling along the west colonnade, his hands folded behind his back. “As usual, Paul, you make a compelling argument.”
They took a few more steps in silence, thoughts weighing heavily on the President’s mind.
“Wanna know what really bothers me, Paul?” He didn’t wait for a reply. “It’s the relative ease with which these life-and-death decisions are made.” Taylor turned and gazed across the garden as if his eyes were searching for something that wasn’t there. “Hardly a week goes by when I’m not being asked to make a decision that would put our people at risk. Hell, the only remarkable point about the current affair is the number of service men and women that I’m…” The President paused, searching for the right word. “That I’m ordering to charge the Russian cannon, with literally no defense.”
“I’m sure all of your predecessors also wrestled with this very issue. But the world is a violent place, and we have to deal, as best we can, with situations and problems that are not of our making.”
“You’d make a good professor,” Taylor said, turning just enough for Paul Bryan to see his crooked grin. In fact, Paul Bryan had taught political science at Stanford. But the lure of politics was simply too strong.
“I’d like to believe,” Taylor continued, “the voters elected me in no small part because they had confidence I’d do a better job than the former administration at finding diplomatic solutions to conflict, rather than opting to use military might.”
“And you have, sir. At the risk of sounding self-congratulatory, you have a pretty impressive record of defusing very challenging international incidents. The Sudan and Eastern Europe immediately come to mind.” Bryan was thinking of two particularly dangerous events involving the Chinese in Africa in one case, and in another the Russians attempting to expand their borders through the use of proxy militia.
“Not good enough. It doesn’t matter what we’ve done, only what we do—or plan to do—that counts.” Taylor sighed. “I’ve ordered an entire carrier strike group—more than 7,000 enlisted men and officers—into harm’s way. All from the comfort of my office. And then, less than an hour later, I delivered a feel-good speech to high rollers in exchange for their generous contributions to the DNC. I order men and women to risk their lives, knowing many will pay the ultimate price, while I dine on prime rib and drink Champagne.”
He faced his Secretary of State. Bryan found it difficult to meet the President’s eyes. “Doesn’t that strike you as odd? Maybe even perverse?”
“Sir—” Bryan was cut off.
“No, I’m not back peddling. But I am saying that we need to do more to find common ground with our sometimes adversaries, especially China. We need to do better—we will do better.”
“I’ll revisit some Southeast Asia initiatives previously under consideration.”
Taylor nodded, liking what he heard. “And put a high priority on equality and respect. I don’t want to be preaching from a soap box or negotiating for a double standard. Look to historical examples of how territorial disputes were resolved amicably while preserving national self-interest. The Panama Canal treaties that you mentioned are a case in point.”
“I’ll get my people working on it. But in the meantime, we still have a very delicate situation off the coast of China.”
“Yes, plus possible involvement of North Korea—maybe even collusion with President Chen.”
“It makes for an extremely volatile mix, sir,” Bryan said.
Several more steps were taken in silence, and then the President said, “So, we can’t afford to fail. We have to find that launcher.”
“Colonel Pierson’s team at SGIT was made for this type of mission.” Bryan glanced at his watch. “We should have their first report in a little more than an hour.”
“You know, someday we’re going to run out of luck.”
“Who’s to say luck has any role in this mission?”
“It always does,” Taylor answered, his expression dour. “And between you and me, I’ll take luck over skill any day.”