Adam Fox flipped over the carpet “GR Vac Shop Owner Picking Up the Pieces After Business and Home Raided,” Fox 17, October 9, 2020; Aaron C. Davis et al., “Alleged Michigan Plotters Attended Multiple Anti-Lockdown Protests, Photos and Videos Show,” The Washington Post, November 1, 2020; “Accused Leader of Plot to Kidnap Michigan Governor Was Struggling Financially, Living in Basement Storage Space,” The Washington Post, October 9, 2020.
It had hit Detroit and Grand Rapids “Governor Whitmer Signs ‘Stay Home, Stay Safe’ Executive Order,” Office of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, March 23, 2020; “Stay-Home Order Violators Face $500 Fines; Jail Possible,” The Detroit News, March 23, 2020.
join hundreds of protesters Matt Zapotosky, Devlin Barrett, and Abigail Hauslohner, “FBI Charges Six Who It Says Plotted to Kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, as Seven More Who Wanted to Ignite Civil War Face State Charges,” The Washington Post, October 8, 2020.
“We are in a war for the hearts” Davis et al., “Alleged Michigan Plotters Attended Multiple Anti-lockdown Protests, Photos and Videos Show,” The Washington Post, November 1, 2020.
That June, he livestreamed a video “Michigan Kidnapping Plot, Like So Many Other Extremist Crimes, Foreshadowed on Social Media,” The Washington Post, October 8, 2020.
Soon afterward, he reached out over Facebook Zapotosky, Barrett, and Hauslohner, “FBI Charges Six Who It Says Plotted to Kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer”; Gus Burns, Roberto Acosta, and John Tunison, “The Ties That Bind the Men Behind the Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer,” MLive, October 20, 2020.
they settled on a different plan “Northern Michigan Town Grapples with Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer from Local Vacation Home,” MLive, October 9, 2020; Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Shaila Dewan, and Kathleen Gray, “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer,” The New York Times, October 8, 2020.
That August and September, the men spied Bogel-Burroughs, Dewan, and Gray, “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer”; Burns, Acosta, and Tunison, “Ties That Bind the Men Behind the Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer.”
The fourteen men, including Fox “Michigan Charges 8th Man in Alleged Domestic Terrorism Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer,” NPR, October 15, 2020.
President Donald Trump criticized Whitmer “Trump Criticizes Whitmer After FBI Foiled Plot to Kidnap Michigan Governor,” MLive, October 8, 2020.
“I knew he was in a militia” “What We Know About the Alleged Plot to Kidnap Michigan’s Governor,” The New York Times, October 9, 2020.
“I just wanna make the world glow” Bogel-Burroughs, Dewan, and Gray, “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.”
In 2010, an article published Jack A. Goldstone et al., “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability,” American Journal of Political Science 54 (January 2010): 190–208.
Written by a team of academics The original name of the group was the State Failure Task Force.
Michigan also has a strong anti-government culture “Antigovernment Movement,” Southern Poverty Law Center, https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/antigovernment.
Free Syrian Army—was a mix of hundreds “Defected Soldiers Formed Free Syrian Army,” NPR, July 20, 2012; Emile Hokayem, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (Abingdon, Oxfordshire: Routledge, 2017).
Since 2008, over 70 percent of extremist-related deaths “U.S. Law Enforcement Failed to See the Threat of White Nationalism. Now They Don’t Know How to Stop It,” The New York Times, November 3, 2018.
Their growth may have felt imperceptible Janet I. Lewis, How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020), 31–36.
It took three years for Mexico’s Zapatista to grow Ibid.
“And then suddenly,” Kovac told me Author interview with Berina Kovac, July 16, 2020. Berina Kovac is a pseudonym.
“It was like a movie” Author interview with Noor, July 1, 2020. Noor is a pseudonym.
“We thought we would breathe freedom” “15 Years After U.S. Invasion, Some Iraqis are Nostalgic For Saddam Hussein Era,” NPR, April 30, 2018.
In an effort to bring rapid democracy “Fateful Choice on Iraq Army Bypassed Debate,” The New York Times, March 17, 2008; “Report Cites Americans for Purging Baath Party Members,” The New York Times, July 6, 2020.
Suddenly, before a new government could be formed “Debate Lingering on Decision to Dissolve the Iraqi Military,” The New York Times, October 21, 2004; James P. Pfiffner, “U.S. Blunders in Iraq: De-Baathification and Disbanding the Army,” Intelligence and National Security 25 (February 2010): 76–85; Thomas E. Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (New York: Penguin, 2006).
Nascent insurgent organizations began to form Daniel Byman, “An Autopsy of the Iraq Debacle: Policy Failure or Bridge Too Far?,” Security Studies 17 (December 2008): 599–643.
“We were on top of the system” Ibid.
fighting escalated in April 2004 “The Struggle for Iraq: The Occupation; Troops Hold Fire for Negotiations at 3 Iraqi Cities,” The New York Times, April 12, 2004.
“Saudi Arabia supported the Sunni militias” Author interview with Noor, July 1, 2020.
the animals were either starving to death “Author Describes Rescue of Baghdad’s Zoo Animals,” NPR, March 7, 2007.
But by 1948, world leaders had embraced “Human Rights Declaration Adopted by U.N. Assembly,” The New York Times, December 11, 1948; UN General Assembly, Resolution 217 A (III), Universal Declaration of Human Rights, A/RES/3/217A (December 10, 1948).
Today, almost 60 percent “Despite Global Concerns About Democracy, More Than Half of Countries Are Democratic,” Pew Research Center, May 14, 2019, citing the Polity5 Project, Center for Systemic Peace.
“a free Iraq at the heart” “Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy,” United States Chamber of Commerce, November 6, 2003.
But given a choice between “Globally, Broad Support for Representative and Direct Democracy,” Pew Research Center, October 16, 2017.
Since 1946, right after World War II ended Samuel P. Huntington, “How Countries Democratize,” Political Science Quarterly 106 (Winter 1991–92): 579–616.
Civil wars rose alongside democracies “Armed Conflict by Region 1946–2019,” Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 20.1 Data (UCDP 20.1 data); “Global Trends in Governance, 1800–2018,” Polity5 Project, Center for Systemic Peace.
In 1870, almost no countries were experiencing civil war A. C. Lopez and D.D.P. Johnson, “The Determinants of War in International Relations,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2017.
In 2019, we reached a new peak UCDP 20.1 data.
It turns out that one of the best predictors This sentence is a quote by Barbara F. Walter from Sean Illing, “Is America’s Political Violence Problem Getting Worse? I Asked 7 Experts,” Vox, October 30, 2018.
It is in this middle zone that most civil wars occur Havard Hegre et al., “Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992,” American Political Science Review, March 2001; Kristian Skrede Gledtisch, All International Politics Is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002); Zachary M. Jones and Yonatan Lupu, “Is There More Violence in the Middle?” American Journal of Political Science, 2018.
Experts call countries in this middle zone Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr, Peace and Conflict 2003: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy (College Park, Md.: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, 2003).
The same was true of Spain in the 1930s Note that Spain’s First Republic had a democratic election in 1873.
The dataset is useful Boese, Vanessa A. 2019. “How (not) to Measure Democracy,” International Area Studies Review. 22(2): 95–127; Vaccaro, Andrea. 2021, “Comparing Measures of Democracy: Statistical Properties, Convergence, and Interchangeability,” European Political Science.
Fareed Zakaria calls these types of governments Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (New York: W.W. Norton, 2003).
The CIA first discovered the relationship Daniel C. Esty et al., “State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings,” Environmental Change and Security Project Report 5, Summer 1999.
Anocracies, particularly those with more democratic Ibid.
When I asked Noor about the transition Author interview with Noor, July 1, 2020.
Former rebel leaders in Uganda Lewis, How Insurgency Begins, Chapter 6.
Though a reformist named Zviad Gamsakhurdia “Gamsakhurdia Wins Presidential Election,” UPI, May 27, 1991; “Tbilisi Battle Ends as President Flees,” The Washington Post, January 7, 1992; “In Crushing Blow to Georgia, City Falls to Secessionists,” The New York Times, September 28, 1993.
This happened in Indonesia “The Fall of Suharto: The Overview; Suharto, Besieged, Steps Down After 32-Year Rule in Indonesia,” The New York Times, May 21, 1998.
Within weeks of entering office “New Leader Vows Early Elections for Indonesians,” The New York Times, May 26, 1998; “Indonesia Changed, But Who Deserves the Credit?” The New York Times, June 13, 1999.
the Christian Ambonese, an ethnic group in the province of Maluku For a more in-depth history on the revolt, see especially Richard Chauvel, Nationalists, Soldiers and Separatists: The Ambonese Islands from Colonialism to Revolt, 1880–1950 (Leiden, Netherlands: KITLV Press, 1990).
“then there is no reason Aceh” Quote by Kautsar, an activist in Aceh, from Slobodan Lekic, “The Legacy of East Timor: Other Indonesian Provinces Feel Stirrings of Separatism,” Montreal Gazette, November 7, 1999.
Rapid regime change—a six-point or more Patrick M. Regan and Sam R. Bell, “Changing Lanes or Stuck in the Middle: Why Are Anocracies More Prone to Civil Wars?” Political Research Quarterly 63, no. 4 (December 2010): 747–59.
Ethiopia’s recent political violence “Abiy Ahmed: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister,” BBC, October 11, 2019; “In Ethiopian Leader’s New Cabinet, Half the Ministers Are Women,” The Washington Post, October 16, 2018.
“beyond our wildest dreams” Interview with author, February 1, 2019.
“such a remarkable level of democratic opening” “Ethiopia: Thousands Protest After Deadly Ethnic Violence,” Al Jazeera, September 17, 2018.
Today, a full-scale civil war “Why Is Ethiopia at War With Itself?,” The New York Times, July 2, 2021.
Mexico weathered democratization relatively peacefully Roderic Ai Camp, “Democratizing Mexican Politics, 1982–2012,” in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Latin American History, ed. William H. Beezley (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015).
Even once-safe liberal democracies “Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace.
We’ve seen this in Poland “Democracy in Poland Is in Mortal Danger,” The Atlantic, October 9, 2019.
The government controls the media Zach Beauchamp, “It Happened There: How Democracy Died in Hungary,” Vox, September 13, 2018.
Orbán and his party may have won Beauchamp, “It Happened There.”
According to the V-Dem Institute “Autocratization Turns Viral: Democracy Report 2021,” V-Dem Institute, March 2021.
Democratic countries that veer into anocracy Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die (New York: Crown, 2018).
There are three widely used Boese, Vanessa A. 2019: “How (not) to Measure Democracy,” International Area Studies Review, 22(2): 95–127; Vaccaro, Andrea. 2021: “Comparing Measures of Democracy: Statistical Properties, Convergence, and Interchangeability,” European Political Science.
For a decaying democracy “Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace.
Annual Likelihood of Armed Conflict The numbers on the y axis represent the probability that a civil war begins in a particular country in any given year, depending on its polity score. An anocracy with a polity score of +1, for example, is more than six times more likely to experience a civil war than a full democracy with a polity score of +10.
One cautionary tale is Ukraine “Ukraine Protests After Yanukovych EU Deal Rejection,” BBC, November 30, 2013; “Pro-European Businessman Claims Victory in Ukraine Presidential Vote,” The New York Times, May 25, 2014.
“We had dreams of a new life” Author interview with Anton Melnyk, June 30, 2020. Anton Melnyk is a pseudonym.
Within weeks of Yanukovych’s ouster “Russians Find Few Barriers to Joining Ukraine Battle,” The New York Times, June 9, 2014.
The decline of democracy in Ukraine “Why Ukraine’s Government, Which Just Collapsed, Is Such a Mess,” Vox, July 25, 2014.
When he showed up in Kyiv on March 3 Author interview with Mikhail Minakov, July 1, 2020.
By April 6, after weeks of protests “Pro-Russia Protesters Seize Ukraine Buildings, Kiev Blames Putin,” Reuters, April 6, 2014; “Ukraine: President Calls Emergency Meeting Over Protests,” BBC, April 7, 2014.
The love affair with democratization “Autocratization Turns Viral: Democracy Report 2021,” V-Dem Institute, March 2021.
Some democracies that have crossed into anocracy “How Venezuela Went from a Rich Democracy to a Dictatorship on the Brink of Collapse,” Vox, September 19, 2017.
have resisted civil war by resorting to straight-up repression Christian Davenport, “State Repression and Political Order,” Annual Review of Political Science, June 15, 2007.
People began asking whether you Author interview with Noor, July 1, 2020.
The men in military uniform inched the casket “Thousands Join Ceremonies for Tito’s Return to Belgrade,” The Washington Post, May 6, 1980; “Leaders Gathering for Tito’s Funeral,” The New York Times, May 7, 1980.
“the most frightful mix-up of races” This passage was quoted in Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1993), 52.
“One-third we will kill” Alex N. Dragnich, Serbs and Croats: The Struggle in Yugoslavia (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1992), 102.
Each ethnic group would have a geographic home base Vesna Pesic, “Serbian Nationalism and the Origins of the Yugoslav Crisis,” United States Institute of Peace, April 1996.
Tensions broke out almost immediately Misha Glenny, The Balkans: Nationalism, War, and the Great Powers, 1804–2012 (Toronto: House of Anansi Press, 2012); Anton Logoreci, “Riots and Trials in Kosovo,” Index on Censorship 11 (1982): 23–40; “Yugoslavia Destroyed Its Own Economy,” The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 1999.
Serbs viewed Kosovo as their cherished homeland Monica Duffy Toft, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2003).
Instead, that June, on the six hundredth anniversary “1 Million Serbs Cheer Their Nationalist Leader in Kosovo,” Associated Press, June 28, 1989; Paul R. Bartrop, Modern Genocide: A Documentary and Reference Guide (Santa Barbara, Calif.: ABC-CLIO, 2019), 64.
the world would come to know the term “ethnic cleansing” “On Language: Ethnic Cleansing,” The New York Times, March 14, 1993.
In the first five years after World War II James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War,” World Development 39, no. 2 (February 2011): 199–211.
they focused on ethnicity as a potential cause Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 234).
But the dawn of datasets cast doubt on this theory Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers 56 (October 2004): 563–95; James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,” American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (February 2003): 75–90.
“We studied every situation of factionalism” Author interview with Monty Marshall, September 22, 2020.
found that once these types of political parties Andreas Wimmer, Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the Modern World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 5.
And if a country was an anocracy “Political Instability Task Force: New Findings,” Wilson Center, February 5, 2004.
War is even more likely Joshua R. Gubler and Joel Sawat Selway, “Horizontal Inequality, Crosscutting Cleavages, and Civil War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (April 2012): 206–32.
Experts have found that the most volatile countries Tanja Ellingsen, “Colorful Community or Ethnic Witches’ Brew? Multiethnicity and Domestic Conflict During and After the Cold War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44, no. 2: 228–49; Collier and Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War”; Joan Esteban and Gerald Schneider, “Polarization and Conflict: Theoretical and Empirical Issues,” Journal of Peace Research, March 2008.
Perhaps there is no greater picture of the deep divide “Croatian Cityscape: Stray Dogs, Rows of Wounded, Piles of Dead,” The New York Times, November 21, 1991.
“We kept telling jokes at [The Serbs’] expense”Zlatko Dizdarević, Sarajevo: A War Journal (New York: Fromm International, 1993), 112.
citizens exposed to its broadcast Stefano DellaVigna et al., “Cross-Border Media and Nationalism: Evidence from Serbian Radio in Croatia,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 6 (July 2014): 103–32.
By the time Vukovar finally fell “Murder of the City,” The New York Review, May 27, 1993; “A War on Civilians: The Struggle for Land in Bosnia Is Waged Mainly by Serbs With Help from Belgrade,” The New York Times, July 18, 1992.
Experts have a term for these individuals: ethnic entrepreneurs V. P. Gagnon Jr., “Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia,” International Security 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994–95), 130–66; V. P. Gagnon, Jr., The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2006).
“gambling for resurrection”—an aggressive George W. Downs and David M. Rocke, “Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War,” American Journal of Political Science. May 1994; Rui De Figueiredo and Barry Weingast, “The Rationality of Fear: Political Opportunism and Ethnic Conflict,” in Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, ed. Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder (New York: Columbia University Press) 1999, 261–302.
This is how, at a 1992 rally “Cockroaches” was a term used in the Hutu revolution in 1959 to refer to Tutsi rebels “scurrying” at night across borders. I thank James Fearon for this reference. “Trial of Ex-Quebec Resident on Genocide Charges Stirs Ethnic Tensions in Rwanda,” National Post, November 17, 2013.
In 2012, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir “Sudan President Seeks to ‘Liberate’ South Sudan,” BBC, April 19, 2012.
After purging disloyal journalists “Media Controls Leave Serbians in the Dark,” The Washington Post, October 18, 1998.
“dark, genocidal urges of the Croats” Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan War (London: Penguin Books), 1996, 66.
The republic had the highest percentage of people Ibid., 161.
Sarajevo had hosted the Winter Olympics “And Now, Dovidjenja, Sarajevo,” The New York Times, February 21, 1984.
“I was sure that what happened in Croatia” Author interview with Berina Kovac, July 16, 2020.
“We are culturally very, very close” Author interview with Daris Kovac, July 16, 2020. Daris Kovac is a pseudonym.
“The facts started to get twisted” Ibid.
In 1991, the Serbian Pale TV company “For Sarajevo Serbs, Grief Upon Grief,” The New York Times, April 26, 1995.
Newscasters mocked Muslim prayers Kemal Kurspahić, Prime Time Crime: Balkan Media in War and Peace (Washington, D.C.: Institute of Peace Press, 2003), 102–3.
“At weddings in Bosnia” Author interview with Berina Kovac, July 16, 2020.
In the rhetoric of Milošević and Karadžić Roger D. Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 238.
agreed to divide Bosnia into two parts “Serbs, Croats Met Secretly to Split Bosnia,” Los Angeles Times, May 9, 1992.
“We are bound to the Serbs” Tom Gallagher, The Balkans After the Cold War: From Tyranny to Tragedy (London: Routledge), 2003.
more than 1,500 Muslim men, women, and children “The Warlord of Visegrad,” The Guardian, August 10, 2005.
At the start of the war, 63 percent “Serb Forces Overwhelm Key Town,” The Washington Post, April 15, 1992; “War Is Over—Now Serbs and Bosniaks Fight to Win Control of a Brutal History,” The Guardian, March 23, 2014.
“We see their fires when they cook” Author interview with Berina Kovac, July 16, 2020.
granting key government positions to extremists “Firebrand Hindu Cleric Ascends India’s Political Ladder,” The New York Times, July 12, 2017.
Modi went on to put extremists in charge “India Is Changing Some Cities’ Names, and Muslims Fear Their Heritage Is Being Erased,” NPR, April 23, 2019; “India’s New Textbooks Are Promoting the Prime Minister’s Favorite Policies, Critics Allege,” The Washington Post, July 1, 2018.
In 2019, he rescinded special status “India Revokes Kashmir’s Special Status, Raising Fears of Unrest,” The New York Times, August 5, 2019; “India Says the Path to Citizenship Will Get Easier, But Muslims See a Hindu Plot,” The Wall Street Journal, December 11, 2019.
Though the economy has not improved “India Has to Create More Jobs. Modi May Need Some Help from State Governments,” CNBC, June 6, 2019.
This pattern is repeating itself in democracies “Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil’s Firebrand Leader Dubbed the Trump of the Tropics,” BBC, December 31, 2018; “How Jair Bolsonaro Entranced Brazil’s Minorities—While Also Insulting Them,” The Washington Post, October 24, 2018.
“We called him a crazy psychiatrist” Author interview with Berina Kovac, July 16, 2020.
“I didn’t know at the time” Author interview with Daris Kovac, July 16, 2020.
five months before the genocide “Serbia Arrests Seven Over 1995 Srebrenica Massacre,” BBC, March 18, 1995.
“I couldn’t believe it” Author interview with Daris Kovac, July 16, 2020.
In October 1990, the CIA issued a report “A Bloody Failure in the Balkans,” The Washington Post, February 8, 1993; “Yugoslavia Transformed: National Intelligence Estimate,” Director of Central Intelligence, National Foreign Intelligence Board, October 18, 1990.
To Muslims, he was a World War II hero There are multiple accounts of Matalam’s life, some of them conflicting, and none of them completely reliable.
Matalam was born at the turn of the twentieth century Thomas M. McKenna, Muslim Rulers and Rebels: Everyday Politics and Armed Separatism in the Southern Philippines (Berkeley: University of California Press), 1998.
Catholics increasingly began to migrate to Mindanao Ibid.
Many Muslims were physically thrown off land Thomas M. McKenna, “The Origins of the Muslim Separatist Movement in the Philippines,” Asia Society, https://asiasociety.org/origins-muslim-separatist-movement-philippines.
Matalam’s loss of political stature McKenna, Muslim Rulers and Rebels, 146.
“Once our religion is no more” Anabelle Ragsag, Ethnic Boundary-Making at the Margins of Conflict in the Philippines: Everyday Identity Politics in Mindanao (Singapore: Springer, 2020).
Matalam’s manifesto, however, caused a spiral McKenna, Muslim Rulers and Rebels, 146.
But the creation of the MIM Ibid., 147–50.
It was the classic “security dilemma,” John J. Herz, “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 2, no. 2 (January 1950): 157–80; Robert Jervis, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (January 1978): 167–214; Barry R. Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” Survival 35, no. 1 (Spring 1993), 27–41.
But what really tempted all-out conflict “Mass Arrests and Curfew Announced in Philippines,” The New York Times, September 24, 1972.
A few days before the weapons deadline McKenna, Muslim Rulers and Rebels, 157; Ruben G. Domingo, “The Muslim Secessionist Movement in the Philippines: Issues and Prospects” (thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 1995).
leading to the deaths “Philippines-Mindanao (1971 – First Conflict Deaths),” Project Ploughshares, https://ploughshares.ca/pl_armedconflict/philippines-mindanao-1971-first-combat-deaths/#:~:text=Total%3A%20At%20least%20100%2C63%20people,by%20the%2040%2Dyear%20conflict.
Over the past three decades, scholars have zeroed in For excellent research on this subject, see Lars-Erik Cederman, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min, “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis,” World Politics 62 (2010): 87–119; Halvard Buhaug, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Jan K. Rød, “Disaggregating Ethno-Nationalist Civil Wars: A Dyadic Test of Exclusion Theory,” International Organization 62 (2008): 531–51.
But the most powerful determinant of violence Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence, 2002.
“immediately caused a reaction among Tamils” Fearon and Laitin, “Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War,” 199–211.
psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,” Econometrica 47 (1979): 263–91.
Thousands of Georgians and Abkhazians were killed, “Georgia/Abkhazia: Violations of the Laws of War and Russia’s Role in the Conflict,” Human Rights Watch 7, no. 7 (March 1995), https://www.hrw.org/reports/1995/Georgia2.htm#P117_4464; Jared Ferrie, “Can They Ever Go Home? The Forgotten Victims of Georgia’s Civil War,” New Humanitarian, May 27, 2019, https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2019/05/27/Abkhazia-georgia-civil-war-forgotten-victims.
what experts call “sons of the soil” This term was coined by Myron Weiner, a political scientist at MIT, and then developed by David Laitin. Myron Weiner, Sons of the Soil: Migration and Ethnic Conflict in India (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press), 1978; Fearon and Laitin, “Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War.”
In one study of civil wars since 1800 David D. Laitin, “Immigrant Communities and Civil War,” International Migration Review 43 (2009): 35–59.
In 1965, Indigenous Papuans formed the Free Papua Movement R. G. Crocombe, Asia in the Pacific Islands: Replacing the West (Suva, Fiji: IPS Publications), 2007.
Native speakers of a country’s official language David D. Laitin, “Language Games,” Comparative Politics 20, no. 3 (April 1988): 289–302.
“numbers are an indicator” Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 194.
The first migrants were brought in by the British “The Economic Basis of Assam’s Linguistic Politics and Anti-Immigrant Movements,” The Wire, September 27, 2018.
But migration continued even after India “Ethnic and Religious Conflicts in India,” Cultural Survival Quarterly, September 1983.
The Assamese responded by organizing Myron Weiner, “The Political Demography of Assam’s Anti-Immigrant Movement,” Population and Development Review 9 (June 1983): 279–92.
The surge in new voters Ibid.
“For the Assamese, the towns” Ibid.
In 1979, student leaders from Assam’s Ibid.
The government ignored these demands, leading to the formation of an even more radical group Sandhya Goswami, Assam Politics in Post-Congress Era: 1985 and Beyond (New Delhi: SAGE Publications), 2020.
The leaders of the AASU Ibid.
demanding that all immigrants Sanjib Baruah, “Immigration, Ethnic Conflict, and Political Turmoil—Assam, 1979–1985,” Asian Survey 26 (November 1986): 1184–206.
“last struggle for survival” Baruah, “Immigration, Ethnic Conflict, and Political Turmoil.”
“We will give blood, not country” Manash Firaq Bhattacharjee, “We Foreigners: What It Means to Be Bengali in India’s Assam,” Al Jazeera, February 26, 2020.
Violence reached its peak “Nellie Massacre—How Xenophobia, Politics Caused Assam’s Genocide,” Quint, February 18, 2020; Makiko Kimura, The Nellie Massacre of 1983: Agency of Rioters (New Delhi: SAGE Publications), 2013.
Using machetes, spears, and homemade guns Weiner, “Political Demography of Assam’s Anti-Immigrant Movement.”
“Not only is there no apparent” James D. Fearon, “Governance and Civil War Onset,” World Development Report 2011 Background Paper, August 31, 2010.
The citizens living in the Donbas Tim Judah, In Wartime: Stories from Ukraine (New York: Crown), 2016.
They were both politically excluded Lars-Erik Cederman, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug, Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013); Ted Robert Gurr, “Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization and Conflict Since 1945,” International Political Science Review, 1993; F. Stewart, “Social Exclusion and Conflict: Analysis and Policy Implications” (report prepared for the UK Department for International Development, London, 2004).
“Loggers came to despoil our beautiful hills” Federico V. Magdalena, “Population Growth and Changing Ecosystems in Mindanao,” Philippine Quarterly of Culture and Society 25 (1997): 5–30.
By 2050, the World Bank predicts Kanta Kumari Rigaud et al., “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration,” World Bank, 2018.
The Syrian war is an early example Colin P. Kelley et al., “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (March 17, 2015): 3241–46.
found that armed conflict was more likely Carl-Friedrich Schleussner et al., “Armed-Conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-Related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalized Countries,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (August 16, 2016), 9216–21.
designed to exclude Irish Catholics James Waller, A Troubled Sleep: Risk and Resilience in Contemporary Northern Ireland (New York: Oxford University Press, 2021).
The councils also controlled government jobs Peter Taylor, The Provos: The IRA and Sinn Fein (London: Bloomsbury, 2014), 44.
“It was basically designed” Ibid., 50.
“Catholics were convinced” Eamonn Mallie and Patrick Bishop, The Provisional IRA (London: Corgi, 1987).
All attempts to change the system Gerry Adams, Before the Dawn: An Autobiography (Dublin: Brandon, 1996), 51.
It’s when a group looks This conclusion is based on my read of qualitative case studies as well as interviews with the political leaders of rebel groups.
“People were in a hopeless” Richard English, Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 121.
Sunnis living in these new “misery belts” Sam Dagher, Assad or We Burn the Country: How One Family’s Lust for Power Destroyed Syria (New York: Little, Brown, 2019), 158.
“We were only chanting in the streets” Wendy Pearlman, We Crossed a Bridge and It Trembled: Voices from Syria (New York: Custom House, 2017), 145.
But Assad’s response removed any doubt “Assad Blames Conspirators for Syrian Protests,” The Guardian, March 30, 2011.
“We couldn’t believe what we were hearing” Pearlman, We Crossed a Bridge, 100.
“the one that sent Syria” David W. Lesch, “Anatomy of an Uprising: Bashar al-Assad’s Fateful Choices That Launched the Civil War,” in The Arab Spring: The Hope and Reality of the Uprisings, ed. Mark L. Haas and David W. Lesch (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 2017).
The result? “People exploded” Mary Elizabeth King, A Quiet Revolution: The First Palestinian Intifada and Nonviolent Resistance (New York: Nation Books, 2007), 2–4, 205.
violence tends to escalate Paul Collier et al., “Post-Conflict Risks,” Journal of Peace Research 45 (July 2008): 461–78; Lars-Erik Cederman et al., “Elections and Ethnic Civil War,” Comparative Political Studies 46 (March 2013): 387–417.
This is why civil wars Ibid.
“Irish people for hundreds of years” Interview with Brendan Hughes, “Behind the Mask: The IRA and Sinn Fein,” Frontline, October 21, 1997.
Since 2010, protests have surged Thomas S. Szayna et al., “Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict” (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2017); Erica Chenoweth, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know (New York: Oxford University Press, 2021).
In 2019 alone, political protests Global Protest Tracker, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020.
In the 1990s, peaceful protests Chenoweth, Civil Resistance.
“Something has really shifted” “From Chile to Lebanon, Protests Flare Over Wallet Issues,” The New York Times, October 23, 2019.
In a study of global conflict Cederman et al., “Elections and Ethnic Civil War.”
Elections give people hope Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 1991.
One study revealed that all Marta Reynal-Querol, “Political Systems, Stability and Civil Wars,” Defence and Peace Economics 13 (February 2002): 465–83.
Once elections take place Cederman et al., “Elections and Ethnic Civil War.”
In the American Civil War Maury Klein, Days of Defiance: Sumter, Secession, and the Coming of the Civil War (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1997).
Multiple studies have found Fearon, “Governance and Civil War Onset”; Jason Lyall and Isaiah Wilson, “Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars,” International Organization 63 (2009): 67–106; Luke N. Condra and Jacob N. Shapiro, “Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage,” American Journal of Political Science 56 (January 2012): 167–87; Mark Irving Lichbach, “Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (June 1987): 266–97.
“If I ever write a book” Pearlman, We Crossed a Bridge, 66.
Hamas has stored weapons “Israel Says That Hamas Uses Civilian Shields, Reviving Debate,” The New York Times, July 23, 2014.
Carlos Marighella, a Brazilian Marxist Carlos Marighella, “Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla,” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 13 (1971): 95–100; David B. Carter, “Provocation and the Strategy of Terrorist and Guerrilla Attacks,” International Organization 70 (January 2016): 133–73.
“were our best recruiting agents” English, Armed Struggle, 122.
“Nothing radicalizes a people faster” Paddy Woodworth, “Why Do They Kill? The Basque Conflict in Spain,” World Policy Journal 18 (2001): 1–12.
violent conflict entrepreneurs Chenoweth, Civil Resistance.
In a study of self-determination movements Barbara F. Walter, Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
Studies have shown that governments Stefan Lindemann and Andreas Wimmer, “Repression and Refuge: Why Only Some Politically Excluded Ethnic Groups Rebel,” Journal of Peace Research 55 (May 2018): 305–19; Stathis N. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
“really had no idea what was going on” Author interview with Jonathan Powell, July 2011.
“Burma for the Burmans” Matthew Bowser, “Origins of an Atrocity: Tracing the Roots of Islamophobia in Myanmar,” AHA Today, June 25, 2018.
Ever since then, Indian Muslims Ibid.
When rebel groups tried to resist Afroza Anwary, “Atrocities Against the Rohingya Community of Myanmar,” Indian Journal of Asian Affairs 31 (2018): 93.
In 2012, a group of Buddhist ultranationalists Christina Fink, “Dangerous Speech, Anti-Muslim Violence, and Facebook in Myanmar,” Journal of International Affairs 71 (2018): 43–52.
The posts, which went viral Steve Stecklow, “Why Facebook Is Losing the War on Hate Speech in Myanmar,” Reuters, August 15, 2018.
Myanmar’s military leaders were using it to post Paul Mozur, “A Genocide Incited on Facebook, with Posts from Myanmar’s Military,” The New York Times, October 15, 2018.
world began to hear reports Peter Shadbolt, “Rights Group Accuses Myanmar of ‘Ethnic Cleansing,’ ” CNN, April 22, 2013.
In the years that followed “Facebook Bans Rohingya Group’s Posts as Minority Faces ‘Ethnic Cleansing,’ ” The Guardian, September 20, 2017.
Violence began to escalate “Myanmar’s Killing Fields,” Frontline, May 8, 2018; “Myanmar Rohingya: What You Need to Know About the Crisis,” BBC, January 23, 2020; Mohshin Habib et al., Forced Migration of Rohingya: An Untold Experience (Ottawa: Ontario International Development Agency, 2018); “Rohingya Crisis: Villages Destroyed for Government Facilities,” BBC, September 10, 2019.
“women and children raped or sexually assaulted” For excellent in-depth analysis of rape as a tactic of civil war, see Dara Kay Cohen, Rape During Civil War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2016).
“We know very well” Information Committee post, Facebook, September 5, 2017; “Rohingya Crisis: Aung San Suu Kyi Breaks Silence on Myanmar Violence,” NBC News, September 6, 2017.
Every year since 2010 This is based on V-Dem’s measure of liberal electoral democracy, which reached a record high in 2011; 2012 was the high on the measure of participatory democracy. Not only was the net decline in democracy larger than the improvements, but continuously more countries declined on the liberal democracy index than countries that gained; Michael Coppedge et al., “V-Dem Codebook v10,” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
the one glaring exception to this trend “Autocratization Surges—Resistance Grows, Democracy Report 2020,” V-Dem Institute, March 2020.
Africa was an outlier in another way “Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population),” World Bank, 2016.
In Ethiopia, for example, longstanding tensions “Ethiopia Violence: Facebook to Blame, Says Runner Gebrselassie,” BBC, November 2, 2019.
“a rapid increase in access” “Hate Speech on Facebook Is Pushing Ethiopia Dangerously Close to a Genocide,” Vice, September 14, 2020.
It’s not likely to be a coincidence “Autocratization Turns Viral, Democracy Report 2021,” V-Dem Institute, March 2021.
By 2013, 23 percent of Americans “State of the News Media 2013: Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism,” Journalist’s Resource, March 18, 2013; “News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2016,” Pew Research Center, May 26, 2016.
“The problem of misinformation” “Social Media in 2020: A Year of Misinformation and Disinformation,” The Wall Street Journal, December 11, 2020.
The problem is social media’s business model See Tristan Harris’s website for the Center for Humane Technology, which makes this argument.
When William J. Brady and his colleagues William J. Brady, et al., “Emotion Shapes the Diffusion of Moralized Content in Social Networks,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (July 2017): 7313–18.
Another study by the Pew Research Center “Critical Posts Get More Likes, Comments, and Shares Than Other Posts,” Pew Research Center, February 21, 2017.
“If I’m YouTube” “The Making of a YouTube Radical,” The New York Times, June 8, 2019.
These recommendation engines “What’s New About Conspiracy Theories?,” The New Yorker, April 15, 2019; Eli Pariser, The Filter Bubble: How the New Personalized Web Is Changing What We Read and How We Think (New York: Penguin, 2012); Eytan Bakshy et al., “Political Science: Exposure to Ideologically Diverse News and Opinion on Facebook,” Science 348 (June 5, 2015): 1130–32.
Walter Quattrociocchi, a computer scientist Peter Pomerantsev, This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality (New York: PublicAffairs, 2019), 125.
YouTube is “a radicalization pipeline” Manoel Horta Ribeiro et al., “Auditing Radicalization Pathways on YouTube,” Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (January 2020), 131–41.
Wirathu found an eager audience “He Incited Massacre, But Insulting Aung San Suu Kyi Was the Last Straw,” The New York Times, May 29, 2019.
In 2018, Facebook finally admitted “Facebook Admits It Was Used to Incite Violence in Myanmar,” The New York Times, November 6, 2018.
Most activists and human rights groups felt Jen Kirby, “Mark Zuckerberg on Facebook Role in Ethnic Cleansing in Myanmar: ‘It’s a Real Issue,’ ” Vox, April 2, 2018; Matthew Smith, “Facebook Wanted to Be a Force for Good in Myanmar. Now It Is Rejecting a Request to Help with a Genocide Investigation,” Time, August 18, 2020; Anthony Kuhn, “Activists in Myanmar Say Facebook Needs to Do More to Quell Hate Speech, NPR, June 14, 2018.
blocked from Facebook turned to Twitter Stecklow, “Why Facebook Is Losing the War on Hate Speech in Myanmar.”
“There is no Rohingya” Ibid.; “Myanmar’s Coup and Violence, Explained,” The New York Times, April 24, 2021.
“though Facebook barred Myanmar’s military” “Facebook Takes a Side, Barring Myanmar Military After Coup,” The New York Times, March 3, 2021.
Facebook’s dominance over Myanmar’s national conversation “Myanmar President Htin Kyaw Resigns,” BBC, March 21, 2018.
One of the local leaders of the protest “Why a Protest Leader in Myanmar Is Reluctantly Giving Up Nonviolence and Preparing for Combat,” Mother Jones, March 31, 2021.
“prime Facebook country” “What Happens When the Government Uses Facebook as a Weapon?,” Bloomberg Businessweek, December 7, 2017.
At the start of Duterte’s campaign Ibid.
The strategy worked “Official Count: Duterte Is New President, Robredo Is Vice President,” CNN, May 17, 2016.
Exit polls showed “ ‘I Held Back Tears’: Young Filipinos Vote in Divisive Midterm Election,” Vice, May 13, 2019.
his campaign budget was much smaller Sean Williams, “Rodrigo Duterte’s Army of Online Trolls,” The New Republic, January 4, 2017.
disinformation campaigns influenced elections Sanja Kelly et al., “Freedom on the Net 2017: Manipulating Social Media to Undermine Democracy,” Freedom House, 2017.
“Government agents in Venezuela” Ibid.
a poll of Brazilian voters Fadi Quran, “The Bully’s Pulpit,” podcast, Center for Humane Technology, June 22, 2020, https://www.humanetech.com/podcast/20-the-bullys-pulpit.
Bolsonaro used what little money “Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s President, Is a Master of Social Media,” Economist, March 14, 2019.
His early YouTube videos “Ministra Das Mulheres Confessa Que É Gay,” YouTube, February 28, 2013.
Like other populist leaders “In Brazil, a President Under Fire Lashes Out at Investigators,” The New York Times, May 29, 2020.
As Bolsonaro faced greater scrutiny Ricardo F. Mendonça and Renato Duarte Caetano, “Populism as Parody: The Visual Self-Presentation of Jair Bolsonaro on Instagram,” International Journal of Press/Politics 26 (January 2021): 210–35.
Duterte has hired hundreds In September 2020, Facebook suspended 155 of these accounts after they were revealed to be part of a Chinese-based network of purchased accounts. In addition to these, fake accounts made by police and government officials were also taken down. An avid supporter of China, the Philippines president has used Chinese internet scams to raise his popularity in his own country. Furious at the takedown of accounts, Duterte reprimanded Facebook with harsh remarks, but continues to rely on the company for his base of support. See also “Facebook Removes Chinese Accounts Active in Philippines and U.S. Politics,” Reuters, September 22, 2020.
20 percent are in fact bots Williams, “Rodrigo Duterte’s Army of Online Trolls.”
The fact that Sweden “The Global Machine Behind the Rise of Far-Right Nationalism,” The New York Times, August 10, 2019.
More than a million Swedes viewed these sites weekly Amy Watson, “Sweden: Usage of Digital News Sources, 2020,” Statista, April 28, 2021.
the party gained seats “Swedish Far-Right Wins First Seats in Parliament,” BBC, September 20, 2010.
restore “the national home” Danielle Lee Tomson, “The Rise of Sweden Democrats: Islam, Populism and the End of Swedish Exceptionalism,” Brookings Institution, March 26, 2020.
Ethnic entrepreneurs use it to craft Angry Foreigner, YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8kf0zcrJkz7muZg2C_J-XQ, accessed April 26, 2021.
Another Swedish YouTuber Lennart Matikainen, YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMkVJrQM6YRUymwGamEJNNA, accessed April 26, 2021.
Modi had the third-highest number “PM Modi Crosses 60 Million Followers on Twitter,” Times of India, July 19, 2020.
TV presenter Arnab Goswami “Indian News Channel Fined in UK for Hate Speech About Pakistan,” The Guardian, December 23, 2020.
famous yogi Baba Ramdev “The Billionaire Yogi Behind Modi’s Rise,” The New York Times, July 26, 2018.
In Brazil, YouTuber Nando Moura “How YouTube Radicalized Brazil,” The New York Times, August 11, 2019.
In the United Kingdom, YouTuber “How Far-Right Extremists Rebrand to Evade Facebook’s Ban,” National Observer, May 10, 2019.
Le Pen has fifteen permanent staffers “Marine Le Pen’s Internet Army,” Politico, February 3, 2017.
Despite losing the 2017 runoff “Marine Le Pen Defeated But France’s Far Right Is Far from Finished,” The Guardian, May 7, 2017; “Marine Le Pen’s Financial Scandal Continues,” The Atlantic, June 30, 2017; “Far-Right Wins French Vote in EU Election, But Macron Limits Damage,” Reuters, May 26, 2019.
“Right-wing populism is always” “Why the Right Wing Has a Massive Advantage on Facebook,” Politico, September 26, 2020.
It was easy for Shane Bauer “Undercover with a Border Militia,” Mother Jones, November/December 2016.
They can now easily share information Vera Mironova, From Freedom Fighters to Jihadists: Human Resources of Non-State Armed Groups (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).
“sprawling online arms bazaars” “Facebook Groups Act as Weapons Bazaars for Militias,” The New York Times, April 6, 2016.
“hundreds of thousands of new” “The Strategy of Violent White Supremacy Is Evolving,” The Atlantic, August 7, 2019.
Since 2018, the number of white nationalist groups “The Year in Hate and Extremism 2020: Hate Groups Became More Difficult to Track Amid COVID and Migration to Online Networks,” Southern Poverty Law Center, February 1, 2021.
“The media people are more important” “Inside the Surreal World of the Islamic State’s Propaganda Machine,” The Washington Post, November 20, 2015.
“The first thing I did” Mironova, From Freedom Fighters to Jihadists, 8.
“people who are more likely” “To Russia with Likes (Part 2),” Your Undivided Attention podcast, episode 6, August 1, 2019.
Wearing winter coats and MAGA hats “How a Presidential Rally Turned into a Capitol Rampage,” The New York Times, January 12, 2021; “Trump’s Full Speech at D.C. Rally on January 6,” The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2021.
Grassroots groups, along with Republican “77 Days: Trump’s Campaign to Subvert the Election,” The New York Times, January 31, 2021.
tweeting on December 19 “ ‘Be There. Will Be Wild!’: Trump All But Circled the Date,” The New York Times, January 6, 2021.
On January 4, at a rally “President Trump Remarks at Georgia U.S. Senate Campaign Event,” C-SPAN, January 4, 2021.
“Today is not the end!” “Former President Donald Trump’s January 6 Speech,” CNN, February 8, 2021.
At a rally the night before, pastor Greg Locke Katherine Stewart, “The Roots of Josh Hawley’s Rage,” The New York Times, January 11, 2021.
Many came armed for battle “Arrested Capitol Rioters Had Guns and Bombs, Everyday Careers and Olympic Medals,” Reuters, January 14, 2021.
he would cover their legal fees “Trump Urges Crowd to ‘Knock the Crap Out of’ Anyone with Tomatoes,” Politico, February 1, 2016.
when a rally in Las Vegas “Trump on Protester: ‘I’d Like to Punch Him in the Face,’ ” Politico, February 23, 2016.
by hinting that gun owners “Trump Says Maybe ‘2nd Amendment People’ Can Stop Clinton’s Supreme Court Picks,” ABC News, August 9, 2016.
The presidency had emboldened him “Man Charged After White Nationalist Rally in Charlottesville Ends in Deadly Violence,” The New York Times, August 12, 2017.
“liberate Michigan” by going to the state’s capitol “Trump Tweets ‘Liberate’ Michigan, Two Other States with Dem Governors,” The Detroit News, April 17, 2020; “Trump Tweets Support for Michigan Protesters, Some of Whom Were Armed, as 2020 Stress Mounts,” CNN, May 1, 2020.
“If you don’t fight like hell” “Former President Donald Trump’s January 6 Speech,” CNN, February 8, 2021.
“Mike Pence didn’t have” “Inside the Remarkable Rift Between Donald Trump and Mike Pence,” The Washington Post, January 11, 2021.
At around three p.m., Trump tweeted: “No violence!” Courtney Subramanian, “A Minute-by-Minute Timeline of Trump’s Day as the Capitol Siege Unfolded on Jan. 6,” USA Today, February 11, 2021.
“It was a landslide election” Ibid.
“Remember this day forever!” “Deleted Tweets from Donald J. Trump, R-Fla.,” ProPublica, January 8, 2021.
The first condition—how close we are to anocracy “Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace.
“mostly for its limited political competitiveness” The Polity scale, unlike V-Dem, does not take suffrage into account in its democracy score.
as presidential historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Imperial Presidency (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1973); “America Is Living James Madison’s Nightmare,” The Atlantic, October 2018.
“We’re supposed to be in a system” “Clash Between Trump and House Democrats Poses Threat to Constitutional Order,” The New York Times, May 7, 2019.
“LIBERATE MICHIGAN! LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” “Trump Accelerates the Unrest,” Axios, April 17, 2020.
He then wielded it for his own purposes “Forceful Removal of Protesters From Outside White House Spurs Debate,” The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2020.
“If a city or state refuses” “Trump’s Full June 1 Address at the Rose Garden,” The Washington Post, June 1, 2020.
The United States is an anocracy “Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace; “Mapped: The World’s Oldest Democracies,” World Economic Forum, August 8, 2019.
Though Trump and the Republican Party filed “Elections Results Under Attack: Here Are the Facts,” The Washington Post, March 11, 2021; “Fact Check: Courts Have Dismissed Multiple Lawsuits of Alleged Electoral Fraud Presented by Trump Campaign,” Reuters, February 15, 2021; “By the Numbers: President Donald Trump’s Failed Efforts to Overturn the Election,” USA Today, January 6, 2021.
Republican state officials “Arizona Governor Becomes Latest Trump Target After Certifying Biden’s Win,” NBC News, December 2, 2020; “Trump Pressured Georgia Secretary of State to ‘Find’ Votes,” The Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2021.
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper “Trump Fires Mark Esper, Defense Secretary Who Opposed Use of Troops on U.S. Streets,” The New York Times, November 9, 2020.
the ten living former defense secretaries “Opinion: All 10 Living Former Defense Secretaries: Involving the Military in Election Disputes Would Cross into Dangerous Territory,” The Washington Post, January 3, 2021.
FBI immediately launched investigations “Conspiracy Charges Filed Over Capitol Riot,” The Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2021.
That’s not quite as fast Goldstone et al., “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.”
“A drop of five points” Author interview with Monty Marshall, September 22, 2020.
the democratic decay in the United States Anna Lührmann and Matthew Wilson, “One-Third of the World’s Population Lives in a Declining Democracy. That Includes the United States,” The Washington Post, July 4, 2018.
country standing on this threshold Fearon, “Governance and Civil War Onset”; Barbara F. Walter, “Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (October 2015): 1242–72.
“adverse to the rights” “The Federalist Number 10,” November 22, 1787, Founders Online, National Archives.
Today, the best predictor And race is aligning with religion, especially a particular right-wing religion. Evangelical Christians are the strongest supporters of the Republican Party. In 2020, eight in ten white evangelicals voted for Trump. On the other side is a mixed bag of atheists, agnostics, Jews, and Muslims. They line up overwhelmingly in favor of the Democratic Party. Biden won the support of 72 percent of atheists and agnostics, 68 percent of Jewish voters, and 64 percent of Muslims. Elana Schor and David Crary, “AP VoteCast: Trump Wins White Evangelicals, Catholics Split,” Associated Press, November 6, 2020.
Two-thirds or more of Black, Latino Zoltan L. Hajnal, Dangerously Divided: How Race and Class Shape Winning and Losing in American Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020).
In fact, as late as 2007 Ibid.
win all of the Deep South’s electoral votes “South Reverses Voting Patterns; Goldwater Makes Inroads, But More Electoral Votes Go to the President,” The New York Times, November 4, 1964.
“If Goldwater wins his fight” “What Republicans Must Do to Regain the Negro Vote,” Ebony, April 1962.
White evangelicals now represent “In Changing U.S. Electorate, Race and Education Remain Stark Dividing Lines,” Pew Research Center, June 2, 2020.
by 2010, The Alex Jones Show “Alex Jones,” Southern Poverty Law Center, https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/alex-jones, accessed April 27, 2021.
retweeted a video of a retiree “Trump Retweets Video of Apparent Supporter Saying ‘White Power,’ ” NPR, June 28, 2020.
It’s exactly what Tudjman did Gordana Uzelak, “Franjo Tudjman’s Nationalist Ideology,” East European Quarterly 31 (1997): 449–72.
No Republican president in the past fifty years “Religion and Right-Wing Politics: How Evangelicals Reshaped Elections,” The New York Times, October 28, 2018; “Ronald Reagan’s Long-Hidden Racist Conversation with Richard Nixon,” The Atlantic, July 30, 2019.
even withhold food and drink from people waiting in lengthy voting lines Tim Carman, “New Limits on Food and Water at Georgia’s Polls Could Hinder Black and Low-Income Voters, Advocates Say,” The Washington Post, April 9, 2021.
In 2016, the United States dropped to a 3 Author correspondence with Monty Marshall, December 14, 2020. See also Polity Change File for 2016.
this level of political factionalism “Why Reconstruction Matters,” The New York Times, March 28, 2015.
The same is happening today “ ‘The Civil War Lies on Us Like a Sleeping Dragon’: America’s Deadly Divide—and Why It Has Returned,” The Guardian, August 20, 2017.
In a 2019 survey Pippa Norris, “Measuring Populism Worldwide,” Party Politics 26 (November 2020): 697–717.
a poll of attendees revealed “Trump Wins CPAC Straw Poll, but Only 68 Percent Want Him to Run Again,” New York Times, February 28, 2021; “Trump Wins CPAC Straw Poll on the 2024 Presidential Primary, with 55 Percent Support,” Vox, March 1, 2021.
Ted Cruz went on Fox News’s “Cruz Says Supreme Court ‘Better Forum’ for Election Disputes Amid Electoral College Objection Push,” Fox News, January 3, 2021.
On January 6, as Trump supporters “The 147 Republicans Who Voted to Overturn Election Results,” The New York Times, January 7, 2021.
His victory was clear evidence For an excellent account of how white Americans became increasingly reactionary as a result of a loss of status, see Matt A. Barreto and Christopher S. Parker, Change They Can’t Believe In: The Tea Party and Reactionary Politics in Contemporary America (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2013).
The seismic change reflected “Census: Minority Babies Are Now Majority in United States,” The Washington Post, May 17, 2012.
The census, according to Andrew Cherlin “Census: Minority Babies Are Now Majority in United States,” The Washington Post, May 17, 2012.
In 2015, Lin-Manuel Miranda “All About the Hamiltons,” The New Yorker, February 2, 2015.
the quality of life for the white working class William Emmons et al., “Why Is the White Working Class in Decline?,” On the Economy blog, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 20, 2019.
“Their pain is our pain” “Full Text: 2017 Donald Trump Inauguration Speech Transcript,” Politico, January 20, 2017.
This included a focus on the perils “Down the Breitbart Hole,” The New York Times, August 16, 2017; “Who Is Mike Cernovich? A Guide,” The New York Times, April 5, 2017.
found that self-identified conservatives Andrew Guess et al., “Less Than You Think: Prevalence and Predictors of Fake News Dissemination on Facebook,” Science Advances 5 (January 9, 2019).
Researchers at the University of Oxford Samantha Bradshaw and Philip N. Howard, “The Global Disinformation Order: 2019 Global Inventory of Organised Social Media Manipulation” (working paper, Project on Computational Propaganda, 2019).
This pattern was present in the most recent “Stranger Than Fiction,” Your Undivided Attention podcast, episode 14, March 30, 2020.
best predictor of voters who switched Diana C. Mutz, “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (May 2018): E4330–39.
best way to predict Republican support Justin Gest, The New Minority: White Working Class Politics in an Age of Immigration and Inequality (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016).
experimentally triggering threats Rachel Wetts and Robb Willer, “Privilege on the Precipice: Perceived Racial Status Threats Lead White Americans to Oppose Welfare Programs,” Social Forces 97 (December 2018): 793–822.
Almost everyone who scored highest “Racial Prejudice, Not Populism or Authoritarianism, Predicts Support for Trump Over Clinton,” The Washington Post, May 26, 2016.
Republicans with high racial resentment “Trump Is the First Modern Republican to Win the Nomination Based on Racial Prejudice,” The Washington Post, August 1, 2016.
Perhaps most convincing are studies Ilyana Kuziemko and Ebonya Washington, “Why Did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate,” American Economic Review 108 (2018): 2830–67; Rory McVeigh et al., “Political Polarization as a Social Movement Outcome: 1960s Klan Activism and Its Enduring Impact on Political Realignment in Southern Counties, 1960 to 2000,” American Sociological Review 79 (December 2014): 1144–71.
created the racial resentment scale Donald R. Kinder and Lynn M. Sanders, Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996.
In the 2016 American National Election Study Zoltan Hajnal, Vince Hutchings, and Taeku Lee, Racial and Ethnic Politics in the United States (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming). Source of underlying data is the “Times Series Study,” American National Election Study, 2016.
it’s not the desperately poor Francis Fukuyama, Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2018); Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence, 2002.
In a poll conducted days after “About Half of Republicans Don’t Think Joe Biden Should Be Sworn in as President,” Vox, January 11, 2021.
Polls also revealed that 45 percent “Most Voters Say the Events at the U.S. Capitol Are a Threat to Democracy,” YouGov, January 6, 2021.
And more than six months after the election “53% of Republicans View Trump as True U.S. President,” Reuters, May 24, 2021.
feel “somewhat justified” in using violence “Feelings of Political Violence Rise,” Statista, January 7, 2021; “Americans Increasingly Believe Violence Is Justified if the Other Side Wins,” Politico, October 1, 2020.
Another recent survey found that 20 percent of Republicans Nathan P. Kalmoe and Lilliana Mason, “Lethal Mass Partisanship: Prevalence, Correlates, and Electoral Contingencies” (paper presented at the American Political Science Association Conference, 2018).
“pass through similar stages” “Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency,” Central Intelligence Agency, 2012.
The number of militias “Active ‘Patriot’ Groups in the United States in 2011,” Southern Poverty Law Center, March 8, 2012; “The Second Wave: Return of the Militias,” Southern Poverty Law Center, August 1, 2009.
Today, less than a quarter Seth G. Jones, Catrina Doxsee, Grace Hwang, and Jared Thompson, “The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States,” CSIS: CSIS Briefs, April 2021.
About 65 percent of far-right extremists “Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS)” (research brief, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Responses to Terrorism, May 2020).
Two of the most high-profile militias “Oath Keepers,” Southern Poverty Law Center, https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/group/oath-keepers, accessed April 28, 2021.
According to JJ MacNab “One-on-One with JJ MacNab,” Intelligence Unclassified podcast, episode 22, State of New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness, June 6, 2016.
The second stage of insurgency CIA, “Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency.”
the number of right-wing terrorist attacks “The War Comes Home: The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 22, 2020; “The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in the United States,” CSIS, November 7, 2018.
The open insurgency stage CIA, “Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency.”
At least 14 percent of those arrested “The Capitol Siege: The Arrested and Their Stories,” NPR, April 23, 2021.
As Tim Alberta, chief political correspondent for Politico, tweeted Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta),” Twitter, January 10, 2021.
On the morning of Tuesday, November 14, 2028 Experts disagree on how a civil war would start in the United States. Some believe it will never happen; others think it could happen much sooner. This opening is my attempt to dramatize what the early stages of conflict could look like, but it is by no means a scientific prediction. There are literally millions of possible scenarios.
stationed west of the Mississippi Clayton R. Newell, The Regular Army Before the Civil War, 1845–1860 (Washington, D.C.: Center of Military History, United States Army, 2014).
And, increasingly, domestic terror campaigns are aimed Robert A. Pape, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, (New York: Random House, 2005).
“bible of the racist right” “The Turner Diaries, Other Racist Novels, Inspire Extremist Violence,” Southern Poverty Law Center, October 14, 2004.
“heady heroic narrative” Aja Romano, “How a Dystopian Neo-Nazi Novel Helped Fuel Decades of White Supremacist Terrorism,” Vox, January 28. 2021.
the influence of the book “How ‘The Turner Diaries’ Incites White Supremacists,” The New York Times, January 12, 2021; “ ‘The Turner Diaries’ Didn’t Just Inspire the Capitol Attack. It Warns Us What Might Be Next,” Los Angeles Times, January 8, 2021.
wrote a series of newsletters “Influential Neo-Nazi Eats at Soup Kitchens, Lives in Government Housing,” NBC News, November 26, 2019; “Atomwaffen and the SIEGE Parallax: How One Neo-Nazi’s Life’s Work Is Fueling a Younger Generation,” Southern Poverty Law Center, February 22, 2018.
As reported by ProPublica “Inside Atomwaffen as It Celebrates a Member for Allegedly Killing a Gay Jewish College Student,” ProPublica, February 23, 2018.
“If I were asked by anyone” “Accelerationism: The Obscure Idea Inspiring White Supremacist Killers Around the World,” Vox, November 18, 2019.
Amazon is the biggest distributor “The Hate Store: Amazon’s Self-Publishing Arm Is a Haven for White Supremacists,” ProPublica, April 7, 2020.
civil wars involve some type of ethnic cleansing “As Global Democracy Retreats, Ethnic Cleansing Is on the Rise,” Freedom House, February 25, 2019.
“You came here from there” “Stratton Town Report Cover Draws Attention for All the Wrong Reasons,” VTDigger, February 24, 2021; Ellen Barry (@EllenBarryNYT), “Holy Moly, Stratton, Vermont’s annual report,” Twitter, February 23, 2021.
argues that countries go through eight steps Gregory Stanton, “The Ten Steps of Genocide,” Genocide Watch, 1996.
members of both parties have proposed “Dems Spark Alarm with Call for National ID Card,” The Hill, April 30, 2010.
Stage three is “discrimination” “The Ten Steps of Genocide,” Genocide Watch.
Research has shown that Blacks are half as likely Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan, “Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal?” American Economic Review 94 (2004): 991–1013.
showed that legislators are much more likely Daniel M. Butler and David E. Broockman, “Do Politicians Racially Discriminate Against Constituents? A Field Experiment on State Legislators,” American Journal of Political Science 55 (2011): 463–77.
Black families get fewer loans “A Troubling Tale of a Black Man Trying to Refinance His Mortgage,” CNBC, August 19, 2020; Peter Christensen and Christopher Timmins, “Sorting or Steering: Experimental Evidence on the Economic Effects of Housing Discrimination” (NBER working paper, 2020).
embracing abuse in public discourse “Trump Used Words Like ‘Invasion’ and ‘Killer’ to Discuss Immigrants at Rallies 500 Times,” USA Today, August 8, 2019; “Trump Calls Omarosa Manigault Newman ‘That Dog’ in His Latest Insult,” The New York Times, August 14, 2019.
“You wouldn’t believe how bad” “Trump Ramps Up Rhetoric on Undocumented Immigrants: ‘These Aren’t People. These Are Animals,’ ” USA Today, May 16, 2018.
In Bosnia, a plan to exterminate Muslims “What Are the 10 Stages of Genocide?,” Al Jazeera, July 10, 2020.
increasingly organizing, training, and arming themselves “A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans,” The Atlantic, November 2020.
“the only way you get your freedoms” “A Guide to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Conspiracy Theories and Toxic Rhetoric,” Media Matters, February 2, 2021.
Moderates who resist or refuse “South Carolina GOP Censures SC-07 Representative Tom Rice After ‘Disappointing’ Vote to Impeach Trump,” Fox News, January 30, 2021; “Wyoming GOP Censures Liz Cheney for Voting to Impeach Trump,” NPR, February 6, 2021; “GOP Rep. Meijer Receiving Threats After ‘Vote of Conscience’ to Impeach Trump,” The Detroit News, January 14, 2021.
they are looking for any excuse “The Boogaloo Bois Prepare for Civil War,” The Atlantic, January 15, 2021; “Atomwaffen Division,” Anti-Defamation League, 2021.
MacNab even sees a possibility of far-right extremists joining “One-on-One with JJ MacNab,” Intelligence Unclassified podcast.
the first accelerationist group “Documenting Hate: New American Nazis,” Frontline, November 20, 2018.
Despite its small size, the group “What Is Atomwaffen? A Neo-Nazi Group, Linked to Multiple Murders,” The New York Times, February 12, 2018; “An Atomwaffen Member Sketched a Map to Take the Neo-Nazis Down. What Path Officials Took Is a Mystery,” ProPublica, November 20, 2018.
In August 2020, the group rebranded “Neo-Nazi Terror Group Atomwaffen Division Re-Emerges Under New Name,” Vice, August 5, 2020.
Members of AWD were among “He’s a Proud Neo-Nazi, Charlottesville Attacker—and a U.S. Marine,” ProPublica, May 11, 2018.
“Huge rallies don’t work” “Documenting Hate: New American Nazis,” Frontline.
The term “leaderless resistance” Max Taylor, Donald Holbrook, and P. M. Currie, Extreme Right Wing Political Violence and Terrorism (London: Bloomsbury, 2013).
As J. M. Berger recounts J. M. Berger, “The Strategy of Violent White Supremacy Is Evolving,” The Atlantic, August 7, 2019.
Two groups on the forefront Ibid.
the best example of a leaderless resistance “Facebook’s Boogaloo Problem: A Record of Failure,” Tech Transparency Project, August 12, 2020; “The Boogaloo: Extremists’ New Slang Term for a Coming Civil War,” Anti-Defamation League, November 26, 2019; “The Boogaloo Tipping Point,” The Atlantic, July 4, 2020; “Who Are the Boogaloo Bois? A Man Who Shot Up a Minneapolis Police Precinct Was Associated with the Extremist Movement, According to Unsealed Documents,” Insider, October 26, 2020.
They call this showdown Civil War 2 “Why the Extremist ‘Boogaloo Boys’ Wear Hawaiian Shirts,” The Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2020.
be “boogaloo ready” “Boogaloo: Extremists’ New Slang Term for a Coming Civil War,” ADL.
“the battle that would erupt” “Boss: Kidnapping Plot Suspect Was ‘On Edge’ Recently,” WOOD-TV, October 8, 2020.
referred to himself as “Boogaloo Bunyan” “FBI Charges Six Who It Says Plotted to Kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, as Seven More Who Wanted to Ignite Civil War Face State Charges,” The Washington Post, October 8, 2020.
The first time most Americans heard “Boogaloo: Extremists’ New Slang Term for a Coming Civil War,” ADL.
In the spring of 2020, one watchdog group “Extremists Are Using Facebook to Organize for Civil War Amid Coronavirus,” Tech Transparency Project, April 22, 2020.
On Facebook, Boogaloo members Ibid.
One group even compiled a document detailing Ibid.
Boogaloo Bois have engaged in violence “3 Men Tied to ‘Boogaloo’ Movement Plotted to Terrorize Las Vegas Protests, Officials Say,” ABC7, June 4, 2020.
In May 2020, Facebook banned the use “Facebook Bans Large Segment of Boogaloo Movement,” The Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2020.
Intimidation was the preferred tactic David Zucchino, Wilmington’s Lie: The Murderous Coup of 1898 and the Rise of White Supremacy (New York: Grove Atlantic, 2020).
the massacre was meant to serve as an “incentive” “What’s Inside the Hate-Filled Manifesto Linked to the Alleged El Paso Shooter,” The Washington Post, August 4, 2019.
militias are legal in twenty-two states “The Private Militias Providing ‘Security’ for Anti-Lockdown Protests, Explained,” Vox, May 11, 2020.
“He was in Kenosha as part” “Where Protesters Go, Armed Militias, Vigilantes Likely to Follow with Little to Stop Them,” NBC News, September 1, 2020.
Rebel groups that embrace Barbara F. Walter, “The Extremist’s Advantage in Civil Wars,” International Security 42 (2017): 7–39.
When it entered a town Barbara F. Walter and Gregoire Philipps, “Who Uses Internet Propaganda in Civil War?” (forthcoming).
because there were signs of rapprochement Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism,” International Security 31 (2006): 49–80.
Rebels in the Donbas region Sergiy Kudelia, Dismantling the State from Below: Intervention, Collaborationism, and Resistance in the Armed Conflict in Donbas (forthcoming).
“You have a global network of violent” Tim Hume, “Far-Right Extremists Have Been Using Ukraine’s War as a Training Ground. They’re Returning Home,” Vice, July 31, 2019.
There is hate, yes, but the real fuel is fear According to David Kilcullen, “The strongest indicator that shit is about to get extremely bad is not hate. There’s always hate. It’s fear”; Matthew Gault, “Is the U.S. Already in a New Civil War,” Vice, October 27, 2020.
“Why, of course, the people don’t want war” G. M. Gilbert, Nuremberg Diary (New York: Farrar, Straus, 1947), 278.
“it was particularly the last idea” Human Rights Watch, “The Rwandan Genocide: How It Was Prepared” (briefing paper, April 2006).
U.S. gun sales hit an all-time high “Americans Have Bought Record 17m Guns in Year of Unrest, Analysis Finds,” The Guardian, October 30, 2020.
“The common thread is just uncertainty” Ibid.
In 2019, only 8 percent of terrorist incidents “The War Comes Home: The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States,” CSIS, October 22, 2020; “In America, Far-Right Terrorist Plots Have Outnumbered Far-Left Ones in 2020,” The Economist, October 27, 2020.
“to providing working class people” Wikipedia, s.v. “Socialist Rifle Association.” Note that the quote came from the group’s original website, which is now no longer operational. See also https://www.facebook.com/SocialistRifle/about/.
supports self-policing and firearms training “ ‘If You Attack Us, We Will Kill You’: The Not Fucking Around Coalition Wants to Protect Black Americans,” Vice, October 28, 2020.
The Redneck Revolt, which stands “What Is Redneck Revolt? These Left-wing Activists Protect Minorities with Guns,” Newsweek, December 27, 2017.
Valentino found that a remarkably small number Benjamin A. Valentino, Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20th Century (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2013).
Terror shifted the Israeli public to the right C. Berrebi and E. Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate,” American Political Science Review 102, no. 3 (2008): 279–301; Anna Getmansky and Thomas Zeitzoff, “Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections,” American Political Science Review 108, no. 3 (2014): 588–604.
a large study found that the attacks Eitan D. Hersch, “Long-Term Effect of September 11 on the Political Behavior of Victims’ Families and Neighbors,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 52 (December 24, 2013): 20959–63.
a negative view of democracy Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk, “The Democratic Disconnect,” Journal of Democracy 27 (2016): 5–17.
a recent study by two Yale political scientists Matthew H. Graham and Milan W. Svolik, “Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States,” American Political Science Review 114 (2020): 392–409.
Faith in government has plummeted “Public Trust in Government: 1958–2019,” Pew Research Center, April 11, 2019.
Americans are also losing faith in one another “Little Public Support for Reductions in Federal Spending,” Pew Research Center, April 11, 2019.
those who would view “army rule” “Follow the Leader: Exploring American Support for Democracy and Authoritarianism,” Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, March 2018.
we knew exactly: South Africa Barbara F. Walter, “In Memoriam: Nelson Mandela,” Political Violence @ A Glance, December 6, 2013.
Civil wars are rare Readers should note that a 3.4 percent annual risk may seem small but is not. That’s because the risk of civil war compounds over time so that a 3 percent annual risk translates into a 150 percent risk over a fifty-year period if conditions remain the same. A good analogy is the risk of cancer due to smoking. Early on, a smoker has a low risk of getting lung cancer, but if he or she continues to smoke over a lifetime that risk increases significantly. Source: “Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946–2018,” Center for Systemic Peace. I thank Monty Marshall for this clear explanation.
they tend to repeat themselves Barbara F. Walter, “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,” Journal of Peace Research 41 (May 2004): 371–88; Walter, “Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War.”
Experts call it “the conflict trap” Paul Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (Washington, D.C.: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003).
Most countries that were able to avoid Barbara F. Walter, “Conflict Relapse and the Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace,” World Bank, 2011; Walter, “Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War.”
“a significantly greater risk” Fearon, “Governance and Civil War Onset.”
a wealthy country like the United States Walter, “Conflict Relapse and the Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace”; Walter, “Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War.”
“all good things tend” Fearon, “Governance and Civil War Onset.”
According to the political scientist Pippa Norris Sean Illing, “A Political Scientist Explains Why the GOP Is a Threat to American Democracy,” Vox, October 20, 2020.
Canada’s election system is run Elliott Davis, “U.S. Election Integrity Compares Poorly to Other Democracies,” U.S. News & World Report, October 7, 2020.
An independent and centralized election management Illing, “Political Scientist Explains Why the GOP Is a Threat.”
found that the quality of U.S. elections Davis, “U.S. Election Integrity Compares Poorly to Other Democracies.”
In states that have already adopted Nathaniel Rakich, “What Happened When 2.2 Million People Were Automatically Registered to Vote,” FiveThirtyEight, October 10, 2019.
Canada focused on reaffirming voting “Trudeau Breaks Promise on Reforming Canada’s Voting System,” BBC, February 1, 2017; “Canada,” Freedom House, 2020.
“create a registry of digital” “Canada,” Freedom House.
“too many people are profoundly” Eric Liu, You’re More Powerful Than You Think: A Citizen’s Guide to Making Change Happen (New York: PublicAffairs, 2017), 8.
A 2016 survey led by “Americans’ Knowledge of the Branches of Government Is Declining,” Annenberg Public Policy Center, September 13, 2016.
A group of six former U.S. education secretaries “America Needs History and Civics Education to Promote Unity,” The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2021.
we spend 1,000 times more per student on STEM It should be noted that if America eventually experiences a civil war, any advances in STEM will grind to a halt. Countries that experience civil war see their GDP per capita dramatically decline, their institutions weaken, and public services such as health and education break down. Collier, P. (1999), “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 168–183. Retrieved August 19, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3488597; Hannes Mueller, Julia Tobias, (2016), “The Cost of Violence: Estimating the Economic Impact of Conflict,” International Growth Center.
“works only if enough” Author interview with Eric Liu, April 2021.
all confess that they didn’t see Anton Melnyk is a pseudonym.
“One had no time to think” Cass R. Sunstein, “It Can Happen Here,” The New York Review, June 28, 2018.
unlike in other countries “Labeling Groups Like the Proud Boys ‘Domestic Terrorists’ Won’t Fix Anything,” Vox, February 19, 2021; “An Old Debate Renewed: Does the U.S. Now Need a Domestic Terrorism Law?,” NPR, March 16, 2021.
a threat that is common Lewis, How Insurgency Begins.
observed that “right-wing extremism” Janet Reitman, “U.S. Law Enforcement Failed to See the Threat of White Nationalism. Now They Don’t Know How to Stop It,” The New York Times, November 3, 2018.
based on a 2008 FBI assessment Ibid.
“Having personnel within law enforcement” “White Supremacist Infiltration of Law Enforcement,” FBI Intelligence Assessment, October 17, 2016.
A follow-up report, in 2015 “The FBI Has Quietly Investigated White Supremacist Infiltration of Law Enforcement,” The Intercept, January 31, 2017.
the recruitment of former fighters Lewis, How Insurgency Begins.
The 2009 Department of Homeland Security report “Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment,” Department of Homeland Security, April 7, 2009.
“metastasizing across the country” “Domestic Terrorism Threat Is ‘Metastasizing’ in U.S., F.B.I. Director Says,” The New York Times, March 2, 2021.
In less than a year “The Oklahoma City Bombing: 25 Years Later,” Federal Bureau of Investigation, April 15, 2020.
various of the new JTTFs “The Department of Justice’s Terrorism Task Forces June 2005,” U.S. Department of Justice, June 2005.
the FBI enlisted more than 1,400 investigators FBI, “Oklahoma City Bombing: 25 Years Later.”
put in charge of the investigation “Merrick Garland Faces Resurgent Peril After Years Fighting Extremism,” The New York Times, February 20, 2021.
“remedy grievances and fix problems” David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), 265.
“much more money and energy” Evan Osnos, “Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich,” The New Yorker, November 30, 2017.
Following the Unite the Right rally “Six More Defendants Settle Lawsuit Brought After ‘Unite the Right’ Rally,” Georgetown Law, May 16, 2018.
Lawsuits have been particularly effective David Cook, “The Time Has Come for the Story of the Five Women Who Defeated the Klan,” Chattanooga Times Free Press, February 22, 2020; “Attorney, Victim Share Story of 1980 KKK Shooting on MLK Boulevard,” WRCB-TV, February 20, 2020.
a man named Michael Donald “Donald v. United Klans of America,” Southern Poverty Law Center; “Inside the Case That Bankrupted the Klan,” CNN, April 11, 2021.
Delivering basic services can help Carrie O’Neil and Ryan Sheely, “Governance as a Root Cause of Protracted Conflict and Sustainable Peace: Moving from Rhetoric to a New Way of Working,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, June 20, 2019.
“It’s kinda weird that deplatforming” Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), “It’s kinda weird that deplatforming Trump just like completely worked with no visible downside whatsoever,” Twitter, January 21, 2021.
As Voltaire once said Gregory S. Gordon, “Atrocity Speech Law: Foundation, Fragmentation, Fruition, Oxford Scholarship Online, May 2017, https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190612689.001.0001/acprof-9780190612689-chapter-1.
found that fully 17 percent “More Than 1 in 3 Americans Believe a ‘Deep State’ Is Working to Undermine Trump,” NPR/Ipsos, December 30, 2020.
Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter cracked down “Unwelcome on Facebook and Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock to Fringe Sites,” NPR, January 31, 2021.
used clandestine social media campaigns “Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts,” Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, July 8, 2019.
seven of the ten most-read online pieces “7 Out of the 10 Most Viral Articles About Angela Merkel on Facebook Are False,” BuzzFeed, July 27, 2017.
Facebook account called Blacktivist “Fake Black Activist Accounts Linked to Russian Government,” CNN, September 28, 2017; “Exclusive: Russian-Linked Group Sold Merchandise Online,” CNN, October 6, 2017.
where groups of citizens William C. Schambra, “Local Groups Are the Key to America’s Civic Renewal,” Brookings Institution, September 1, 1997.
“We want to put an end to the myth” Author interview with Jená Cane, April 2021.
One of the programs “How Citizen University Is Building an Army of Civic Leaders,” Shareable, March 18, 2019.
“The great majority of people” Author interview with Eric Liu, April 2021.
“We don’t know if Tennessee” Quoted by Eric Liu from a conversation he had with Kate Tucker, in a Civic Saturday sermon, January 16, 2021.
People learned that having a multiethnic party Zoltan L. Hajnal, Changing White Attitudes Toward Black Political Leadership (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
California is another successful example “Gross Domestic Product By State, 3rd Quarter 2020,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 23, 2020.
Since becoming minority-white in 1998 Note that Hawaii has always been a majority non-white state and that New Mexico became majority non-white prior to California. Kathleen Murphy, “Texas Minorities Now the Majority,” Pew Charitable Trusts, August 11, 2005.
Unemployment has dropped U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate in California, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Employment dropped from 6 percent in 1998 to 4.2 percent in 2020 before COVID-19; it did jump to around 9 percent during the pandemic).
California’s transition met fierce resistance “Prop. 187 Backers Elated—Challenges Imminent,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 1994; “Pete Wilson Looks Back on Proposition 187 and Says, Heck Yeah, He’d Support It All Over Again,” Los Angeles Times, March 23, 2017.
California still has many challenges “California Is Making Liberals Squirm,” The New York Times, February 11, 2021.