Contents

Title

Introduction

About This Book

Conventions Used in This Book

What I Assume about You

How This Book Is Organized

Icons Used in This Book

Where to Go from Here

Part I : Understanding the Financial Markets

Chapter 1: The Ins and Outs of Trading Futures

Who Trades Futures?

What Makes a Futures Trader Successful?

What You Need in Order to Trade

Seeing the Two Sides of Trading

Getting Used to Going Short

Managing Your Money

Analyzing the Markets

Noodling the Global Economy

Relating Money Flows to the Financial Markets

Enjoying Your Trading Habit

Chapter 2: Where Money Comes From

Discovering How Money Works: The Fiat System

Introducing Central Banks (Including the Federal Reserve)

Understanding Money Supply

Putting Fiat to Work for You

Bonding with the Fed: The Nuts and Bolts of Interest Rates

Central Banks

Chapter 3: The Futures Markets

Taking Big Risks and Guarding Against Them: Two Types of Traders

Limiting Risk Exposure: Contract and Trading Rules

Staying Up to Snuff: Criteria for Futures Contracts

Seeing Where the Magic Happens

Exploring How Trading Actually Takes Place

Making the Most of Margins

Chapter 4: Some Basic Concepts About Options on Futures

Getting Options on Futures Straight

Understanding Volatility: The Las Vega Syndrome

Some Practical Stuff

Chapter 5: Trading Futures Through the Side Door

Introducing Exchange-Traded Funds

Stocking Up on Stock Index Future ETFs

Comfort via Commodity ETFs

Getting Current with Currency ETFs

Using ETFs in Real Trading

Part II : Analyzing the Markets

Chapter 6: Understanding the Fundamentals of the Economy

Understanding the U.S. Economy: A Balancing Act

Getting a General Handle on the Reports

Exploring Specific Economic Reports

Staying Awake for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Trading the Big Reports

Keeping It Simple

Chapter 7: Getting Technical Without Getting Tense

Picturing a Thousand Ticks: The Purpose of Technical Analysis

First Things First: Getting a Good Charting Service

Deciding What Types of Charts to Use

Getting the Hang of Basic Charting Patterns

Seeing through the Haze: Common Candlestick Patterns

Chapter 8: Speculating Strategies That Use Advanced Technical Analysis

Using Indicators to Make Good Trading Decisions

Lining Up the Dots: Trading with the Technicals

Chapter 9: Trading with Feeling Now!

The Essence of Contrarian Thinking

Bull Market Dynamics

Survey Says: Trust Your Feelings

Considering Volume (And How the Market Feels About It)

Out in the Open with Open Interest

Putting Put/Call Ratios to Good Use

Understanding the Relationship Between Open Interest and Volume

Using Soft Sentiment Signs

Developing Your Own Sentiment Indicators

Part III : Financial Futures

Chapter 10: Wagging the Dog: Interest Rate Futures

Bonding with the Universe

Yielding to the Curve

Deciding Your Time Frame

Getting the Ground Rules of Interest-Rate Trading

Playing the Short End of the Curve: Eurodollars & T-Bills

Trading Bonds and Treasury Notes

Chapter 11: Rocking and Rolling: Speculating with Currencies

Understanding Foreign Exchange Rates

Exploring Basic Spot-Market Trading

The U.S. Dollar Index

Trading Foreign Currency

Arbitrage Opportunities and Sanity Requirements

Chapter 12: Stocking Up on Indexes

Seeing What Stock-Index Futures Have to Offer

Contracting with the Future: Looking into Fair Value

Major Stock-Index Futures Contracts

Formulating Trading Strategies

Using Your Head to Be Successful

Part IV : Commodity Futures

Chapter 13: Getting Slick and Slimy: Understanding Energy Futures

Some Easy Background Info

Completing the Circle of Life: Oil and the Bond Market

Examining the Peak Oil Concept

The Post-9/11 Mega Bull Market in Energy

Understanding Supply and Demand

Playing the Sensible Market

Handling Seasonal Cycles

Preparing for the Weekly Cycle

Forecasting Oil Prices by Using Oil Stocks

Burning the Midnight Oil

Getting the Lead Out with Gasoline

Keeping the Chill Out with Heating Oil

Getting Natural with Gas

Getting in Tune with Sentiment and the Energy Markets

Some Final Thoughts about Oil

Chapter 14: Getting Metallic Without Getting Heavy

Tuning In to the Economy

Gold Market Fundamentals

Lining the Markets with Silver

Catalyzing Platinum

Industrializing Your Metals

Getting into Metal Without the Leather: Trading Copper

Chapter 15: Getting to the Meat of the Markets: Livestock and More

Exploring Meat-Market Supply and Demand, Cycles, and Seasonality

Understanding Your Steak

Understanding Your Pork Chop

Matching Technicals with Fundamentals

Watching for the Major Meat-Market Reports

Interpreting Key Report Data

Outside Influences that Affect Meat Prices

Chapter 16: The Bumpy Truth About Agricultural Markets

Staying Out of Trouble Down on the Farm

Agriculture 101: Getting a Handle on the Crop Year

Cataloging Grains and Beans

Culling Some Good Fundamental Data

Gauging Spring Crop Risks

Agriculture 102: Getting Soft

Part V : The Trading Plan

Chapter 17: Trading with a Plan Today So You Can Do It Again Tomorrow

Financing Your Habit

Deciding Who’s Going to Do the Trading

Choosing a CTA

Choosing a Broker

Chapter 18: Looking for Balance Between the Sheets

Exploring What’s on Your Mental Balance Sheet

The Financial Balance Sheet

Calculating Your Net Worth

Chapter 19: Developing Strategies Now to Avoid Pain Later

Deciding What You’ll Trade

Adapting to the Markets

Managing Profitable Positions

Back Testing Your Strategies

Setting Your Time Frame for Trading

Setting Price Targets

Reviewing Your Results

Remember Your Successes and Manage Your Failures

Making the Right Adjustments

Chapter 20: Executing Successful Trades

Setting the Stage

Getting the Big Picture

Stalking the Setup

Jumping on the Wild Beast: Calling In Your Order

Riding the Storm

Knowing If You’ve Had Enough

Reviewing Your Trade

Mastering the Right Lessons

Part VI : The Part of Tens

Chapter 21: Ten Killer Rules to Keep You Sane and Solvent

Trust in Chaos

Avoid Undercapitalization

Be Patient

Trade with the Trend

Believe in the Charts, Not the Talking Heads

Remember, Diversification Is Protection

Limit Losses

Trade Small

Have Low Expectations

Set Realistic Goals

Chapter 22: More Than Ten Additional Resources

Government Web Sites

General Investment Information Web Sites

Commodity Exchanges

Trading Books

Newsletter and Magazine Resources

: Further Reading