Pause for a moment and think about what you have been doing the last few weeks. Can you see the progress you have made in challenging your unrealistic thoughts? Do you feel as if you have taken at least a small step toward controlling your emotions? Progress in mastering stress is more subtle than progress in other areas of self-improvement, such as losing weight. If you have lost weight, friends are likely to stop you on the street and exclaim, “Oh, you look so much thinner!” They are far less likely to stop and say, “Oh, you seem so much calmer!” Eventually the change will be obvious to those closest to you.
For now, though, you should be careful to give yourself credit. Take time out now and then to read over your recording forms, think about recent events, and pat yourself on the back for your progress. If you feel you are progressing too slowly, you may be expecting too much. Even so, it is a good idea to go back to basics by rereading Chapters 3 and 4, and practicing. This is good advice even if you seem to be going great guns. It may help to brush up on the details. Once you have mastered the basics of realistic thinking, you are ready to start testing predictions.
By now it should be almost second nature for you to ask yourself, “How likely is it?” when you notice a stressful thought. To come up with a realistic probability, you need to take into account as much realistic evidence as possible. But people who are stressed often have trouble assessing evidence; they focus on the negative and ignore the positive. Take our case example, Rhani. Rhani wanted to attend a friend’s birthday party at which she knew only a couple of people. She was anxious about attending because she thought that she would have no one to talk to and appear out of place. Rhani had trouble finding evidence to challenge this thought. When she got to the party she did end up talking to a range of people, but she was so focused on her anxiety, and the times when she felt awkward, that she came away from the party convinced that her negative thoughts were true.
You can see that Rhani’s tendency to focus on the negative prevented her from looking objectively at what had actually occurred when she went to the party. To help her look at the evidence more realistically, we suggested that Rhani try a technique called prediction testing for her next social event. In prediction testing, you predict what you think will happen in a certain situation. You ask yourself beforehand: What evidence will I need to look for to see if these predictions come true? Then, when it’s over, you compare your predictions to the evidence you collected. Doing this over and over will give you an accurate perception of reality, based on real evidence.
The next time Rhani attended a party, she made similar predictions. She predicted, “I will have no one to talk to,” and “People will think I don’t belong.” We asked her to consider how she would know if her predictions came true. That is, what evidence would she need to look for? Rhani found this a challenging question. Normally, she just focused on her own feelings and used these as evidence—if she felt awkward, she assumed she looked awkward. But we didn’t accept this and encouraged her to consider the facts. How would she really know if her predictions came true?
The first prediction was easy enough to test. She would count the number of people she talked to. If the number turned out to be zero, she would know her prediction was correct. The second prediction was more difficult. How would she know what other people were thinking? Like the rest of us, Rhani could not read minds—although she often tried to! We encouraged her to look only at the most reliable evidence. Did anyone say she looked out of place? Did anyone ask her what on earth she was doing there? Rhani agreed to take note of these facts, and competed the first three columns of her Prediction Testing Record:
Rhani then went to the party and looked for the evidence she needed. When she got home, she recorded the outcome in the final column of her Prediction Testing Record:
Prediction testing allowed Rhani to observe what actually happened at the party, and evaluate her predictions based on these facts. The next time she went to a party, Rhani was able to recall the experience and use it as evidence as she did her realistic thinking.
Prediction testing is an extremely powerful tool for reducing stress and building confidence over the long term. In order to get the most out of it, complete the following steps, using your Prediction Testing Record. The first three steps need to be completed before you enter the stressful situation.
1. Write down the event or situation that you are feeling stressed about.
2. Write down your predictions—what do you expect to happen?
3. Write down the evidence that you will need to look for in order to work out whether your predictions come true. It may be useful to ask yourself, what would convince someone else that your predictions are correct? This step can be the most difficult part of prediction testing, but it is vital. Take time to think it through before you enter the stressful situation.
4. Go into the situation and observe all the evidence that you identified in step 3. This will require you to focus on what is actually happening around you, not just your own feelings of stress.
5. Write down the outcome. Using the evidence you collected, were your predictions true or not?
Using this method, you will probably find that most of your stressful predictions do not come true. This will provide you with excellent real-world evidence that you can use in future realistic thinking. Occasionally, however, you may find that your stressful predictions do come true. If this is the case, don’t despair—you have discovered useful information. Now that you know that you were thinking realistically, you are in a better position to use some of the other strategies in this program, such as Problem Solving, which is outlined in Chapter 10.
For more examples of prediction testing, let’s consider the cases of Erik and Anne.
Erik was stressed about submitting an assignment because he didn’t think it was good enough and was concerned that he would fail. In order to test this prediction he had to wait until he had received his grade. But he didn’t stop there. He also asked his teacher directly for feedback about the quality of his assignment. This helped him to get a realistic perspective of what he had done well, and what he could improve next time.
Erik’s Prediction Testing Record
Anne was trying to reduce her stress by having lunch in the park instead of at her desk. However, she found that her stressful thoughts about what would happen if she left her desk, even for just half an hour, kept her in the office. Anne decided to commit to at least one lunch in the park, and test her predictions. You can see her Prediction Testing Record Form below:
Anne’s Prediction Testing Record
As you can see, prediction testing allowed Erik and Anne to find out whether their stressful predictions actually come true or not, based on real-world evidence. Approaching situations in this way allows you to evaluate your predictions on the basis of fact as opposed to a “hunch” or a general feeling. One of the difficulties of prediction testing, however, is that people often try to avoid those situations that might give them the best evidence. In Rhani’s example, evidence could be gained by going to the party and seeing what happened. But if, as many shy people do, Rhani had avoided the party altogether, it would have been difficult for her to collect the evidence she needed.
Everyone knows that the best way to learn something is to experience it firsthand. How many parents complain that their children have to learn from their own mistakes? Yet most of us tend to avoid the types of situations that have caused us stress in the past, and we therefore never learn to deal with them. Additionally, if we avoid, we never get the opportunity to test our predictions. Avoidance stops us from finding out that perhaps things aren’t as bad as we expected.
Of course, it is natural and normal to wish to avoid something that causes you stress. But it is important to recognize that such avoidance makes your stress much worse in the long term. You may be able to see this by thinking back to a situation that you felt stressed about in the past. Perhaps you started a new job, or went on a plane for the first time. It is natural that that situation would have caused at least a little stress. But what happened to that stress as you went back to that job week after week, or continued to fly on planes? Most likely your stress levels dropped. You discovered that it was OK, that you could cope, and you got used to the situation.
Now imagine that you hadn’t returned to that job after the first day, or that you had refused to get on the plane. What would have happened to your stress? In the short term, it probably would have improved—there would have been the instant relief of not having to face the situation. But over the long term, it would have gotten much worse. You would still be stuck with the belief that the job was too hard, or that the plane would crash. The next time you tried to start a new job or board a plane, your stress levels would be even higher than before.
There are many situations that people avoid due to their anticipation of stress. We have listed some of the common ones below, but we would need a whole other book to cover them all. The best way to identify what you avoid is to observe your own behavior. Asking a trusted friend or relative for their ideas might also help.
Commonly avoided situations (place a check next to those you avoid):
Medical appointments
Speeches
Job interviews
Participating in meetings
Parties or social events
Getting injections
Saying no
Delegating tasks
Taking time for yourself
Asking for help
Plane travel
Driving
Elevators
Catching trains or buses
Staying overnight away from home
New places
Another kind of avoidance that commonly occurs is when a person does a behavior too much to try to avoid stress. For example, our case study Erik would check his e-mails several times before sending them because he was so worried about making a mistake. This checking was unnecessary and wasted a lot of time. Because Erik always checked his e-mails so many times, he never learned that the chances of his making a mistake were actually small and that, even if he did make a mistake, it was probably not the end of the world. When Erik stopped checking his e-mails over and over, he quickly realized that he almost never made mistakes, and, even when he did, he was not yelled at and did not lose his job. In this way, Erik learned not to worry as much about making sure his work was absolutely perfect and also became more efficient at doing his work. This reduced a huge part of his daily stress.
Another example of an excessive behavior can be seen in our case study Joe. Joe was so concerned about being late that he always left far too much time to get to appointments. This meant that he was usually very early and would waste time waiting for the person he was meeting (who was sometimes a little late). This made him irritable and even more stressed. We suggested that Joe stop leaving so much time to get to appointments, and even try being deliberately late. Although this was initially stressful for Joe, he was able to find out that when he allowed less time he was still rarely late. Finally, he discovered that even if he was late, it wasn’t the end of the world—others understood because they were sometimes late too.
Are there any behaviors you do excessively because of your stress? We have listed some common ones below. Place a check next to those that apply to you:
Check work too much
Ask others for a lot of reassurance that what you’re doing is okay
Spend too much time on tasks, trying to do it “perfectly”
Stick to routines that are too rigid or inflexible
Leave too much time to get to places, due to worry about being late
Spend too much time making sure things are neat or clean
Be excessively careful with money
Take note that all these behaviors can contribute to stress when they are excessive. Of course there is nothing wrong with generally trying to be on time, keeping things clean, or sticking to a budget. The problem occurs when you do this behavior excessively, and feel stressed when something prevents you from doing it. Remember in Steps 3 and 4, when we suggested the technique of Changing Perspectives to help you with your realistic thinking? This technique involves choosing a calm and rational person in your life, and asking yourself how he or she would think if he or she were in your situation. Changing Perspectives can also be useful in identifying your own excessive behaviors. If the calm, rational person you know is called Lee, ask yourself, “Would Lee check his e-mails five times before sending?” or “Would Lee spend 45 minutes making sure his hair is perfect every morning?” If you don’t know, ask him! The answer to this question will help you to determine if your behavior is justified or excessive.
Once you have identified some situations that you avoid, or some behaviors that you do excessively, it is time to start prediction testing. Do the opposite of what you would normally do. If you would normally avoid going to the party, go to the party and start a conversation with someone. If you would normally rush around making the house look perfect before friends come over, leave it looking messy. And then, test your predictions. Use your Prediction Testing Record Form and observe the evidence—what really happens?
As we have already discussed, prediction testing is stressful. You may well say, “I’m reading this book to reduce my stress, not increase it!” And, of course, you are right. The catch is that prediction testing is an extremely powerful tool for reducing stress in the long term. It is only in the short term that your stress will be increased.
If doing the opposite of what you would normally do seems too stressful to bear, we suggest making change slowly and gradually. If it seems too stressful to go to a big party, you could try going to some smaller social gatherings first. If spending only 5 minutes on your hair in the morning seems impossible, then first try spending only 10 minutes. The important thing is that you make some change, and use your Prediction Testing Record Form! As you collect more and more evidence about what really happens, you will feel more comfortable about making bigger changes.
To conclude, we will illustrate this principle of slow and gradual change with our case study, Rhani.
Rhani had been feeling unhappy at work for a long time. She had tried to change her own reactions to her boss’s frequent criticisms, and although this helped a bit, Rhani longed to work for someone more friendly and supportive. Friends and family often urged Rhani to look for another job, but Rhani felt highly anxious about the prospect of a job interview. Whenever she thought about interviewing for a job a range of negative predictions came to mind, such as “I won’t be able to answer the questions,” “I’ll stammer over my words,” and “I won’t get the job.”
Rhani knew that she should test these predictions out by going to a job interview, but she just felt too anxious to try. So, she decided to test her predictions in a slow and gradual way. First, she did an Internet search for common job interview questions, and then wrote out a list of questions she thought she would be asked. Then she had her sister ask her the questions, just as if she were in a job interview.
Even though this was just a role-play at home, Rhani still found it stressful. But she was able to test her predictions, as you can see from her record below:
Rhani’s Prediction Testing Record
Rhani used this evidence to help her think realistically about job interviews. Due to her high level of stress, she decided to continue practicing with role-plays at home, working up to practicing in front of her whole family. Each time she used her Prediction Testing Record Form. After several practices, Rhani felt confident enough to attend a real job interview and, after a few interviews, eventually got a new job. Even though it had initially been quite stressful, Rhani was glad that she had pushed herself to test her predictions. By doing so she discovered that she could perform well, get a new job, and take control of her life.
Your main task for this chapter is to start prediction testing. Make sure you use the Prediction Testing Record. The first three steps need to be completed before you enter the stressful situation.
1. Write down the event or situation that you are feeling stressed about.
2. Write down your predictions—what do you expect to happen?
3. Write down the evidence that you will need to look for to determine whether your predictions come true. It may be useful to ask yourself, what would convince someone else that your predictions are correct? This step can be the most difficult part of prediction testing, but it is vital. Take time to think it through before you enter the stressful situation.
4. Go into the situation and observe all the evidence that you identified in step 3. This will require you to focus on what is actually happening around you, not just your own feelings of stress.
5. Write down the outcome. Using the evidence you collected, were your predictions confirmed or not?
If you are avoiding situations due to your stress, start facing them and use the Prediction Testing Record to test your predictions.
If you are doing a behavior excessively, start reducing this behavior and use the Prediction Testing Record to test your predictions.
Prediction testing is normally a bit stressful in the short term, but it is very effective in reducing stress over the long term. If it seems too hard, start making changes using small steps, slowly and gradually. Don’t forget to use your Prediction Testing Record for every stressful situation you encounter.
If you are finding it difficult to get started with your first step, you may want to reread the introduction to the book, where we talked about motivation.
Keep filling in your
Daily Stress Record
Progress Chart
You can stop filling in your Realistic Thinking Records at this stage if you don’t feel you need them. But you need to make sure that you still carry out realistic thinking in your head. Go back to using the sheets any time you have difficulty.
You can also stop using your Relaxation Practice Records if you wish. However, you should still include regular practice of relaxation, especially mini-relaxations, as an ongoing part of your life.
In this lesson we introduced the technique of prediction testing to help provide you with even more realistic evidence. In prediction testing, you predict what you think will happen in a certain situation. You ask yourself beforehand—what evidence will I need to look for to see if these predictions come true? Then, when it’s over, you compare your predictions to the evidence you collected. By doing this over and over, you get an accurate perception of reality, based on real-world evidence.
Many people avoid situations that they find stressful. This can be a problem because they never get a chance to test their predictions. Avoidance provides short-term relief but increases stress over the long term. Often, a person will do a behavior (such as checking or cleaning) excessively to try to avoid stress. This is a form of avoidance, and also leads to further stress in the long term.
