NOTES

Unless otherwise indicated, all websites mentioned in the Notes are current as of October 18, 2016.

CHAPTER 1. THE CONVERGENCE MYTH

1.As Fen Osler Hampson and David Gordon point out, convergence theory originated in the 1950s. They refer to convergence as being primarily oriented around democracy. The meaning of convergence is broader here. It includes governance type, but it also includes the liberal international order, which countries could be a part of even if they were not democratic. See Fen Osler Hampson and David Gordon, “The Enduring Myth of Democratic Convergence,” Diplomat Online, September 27, 2015, http://diplomatonline.com/mag/2015/09/the-enduring-myth-of-democratic-convergence/.

2.The end of history thesis was that liberal democracy offered the only pathway to modernization. There would still be struggles, crises, and war, but they would not be fought over what it means to be modern. In the last chapter of The End of History and the Last Man, Fukuyama predicted that nations would rebel against peace and prosperity if necessary because the need to struggle is intrinsic to human nature. See Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Avon Books, 1992).

3.G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002).

4.The literature on balancing is vast. Good entry points are Stephen Walt, The Origin of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990); and John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

5.Ikenberry, America Unrivaled.

6.Charles Krauthammer, “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs (Winter 1990/1991): 23–33.

7.William Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24, no. 1 (Summer 1999): 7.

8.G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

9.Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 2nd ed. (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2000), Kindle edition, location 42.

10.Michael Mandelbaum, The Ideas That Conquered the World (New York: Public Affairs, 2004), p. 1.

11.Ibid., p. 4.

12.G. John Ikenberry, “The Logic of Order: Westphalia, Liberalism, and the Evolution of International Order in the Modern Era,” in Ikenberry, Power, Order, and Change in World Politics (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014), pp. 83–106.

13.The case for primacy was made in early drafts of the Defense Planning Guidance, written by Wolfowitz and his staff and leaked to the press. The White House subsequently distanced itself from the notion of primacy as a strategic objective. See Justin Vaisse, Neoconservatism: The Biography of a Movement (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010), pp. 224–225.

14.See Anthony Lake, “From Containment to Enlargement,” speech, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC, September 21, 1993, https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/lakedoc.html.

15.Quoted in Derek Chollet and James Goldgeier, America between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11 (New York: Public Affairs, 2008), p. 151.

16.In this passage, Clinton is partially quoting and endorsing Strobe Talbott’s assessment of his Russia policy. See Bill Clinton, My Life (New York: Vintage Books, 2004), Kindle edition, location 10272.

17.Ibid., location 16210.

18.Ibid.

19.Ibid., location 19446.

20.Ibid., location 19431.

21.Quoted in Chollet and Goldgeier, America between the Wars, p. 247.

22.President George W. Bush, Graduation Speech at West Point, June 1, 2002, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020601-3.html.

23.Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, p. 2, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2002/.

24.Fukuyama, End of History and the Last Man.

25.Robert Zoellick, “Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility,” speech, National Committee on US-China Relations, New York City, September 21, 2005, http://2001–2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm.

26.Condoleezza Rice, No Greater Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington (New York: Crown, 2011), pp. 436–440.

27.For instance, see G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter, “Forging a World of Liberty under Law,” final report of the Princeton Project on National Security (Princeton, NJ: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, 2006); and Anne-Marie Slaughter et al., Strategic Leadership: Framework for a 21st Century National Security Strategy, a Phoenix Initiative Report (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, 2008), https://www.brookings.edu/research/strategic-leadership-framework-for-a-21st-century-national-security-strategy/.

28.Joe Biden, “Remarks by Vice President Biden in Ukraine,” speech, Ukraine House, Kyiv, Ukraine, July 22, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-Vice-President-Biden-In-Ukraine/.

29.Oleg Schedrov and Matt Spetalnick, “Obama, Medvedev to Reset Ties with Arms Pact,” Reuters, April 1, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL194925620090401.

30.Helene Cooper, “On the World Stage, Obama Issues an Overture,” New York Times, April 2, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/world/europe/03assess.html.

31.Barack Obama, “A New Beginning,” speech, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-cairo-university-6-04-09.

32.Emile Nakhleh, A Necessary Engagement: Reinventing America’s Relations with the Muslim World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008).

33.Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic (April 2016), http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

34.James Goldgeier, “Stop Blaming NATO for Putin’s Provocations,” New Republic, April 17, 2014, https://newrepublic.com/article/117423/nato-not-blame-putins-actions.

35.Joe Biden, “Vice President Biden’s Remarks at Moscow State University,” speech, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, March 10, 2011, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/10/vice-president-bidens-remarks-moscow-state-university.

36.Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, “Addressing US-China Strategic Distrust,” John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 4, Brookings Institution, March 30, 2012, pp. 8–11, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/30-us-china-lieberthal/0330_china_lieberthal.pdf.

37.World Bank Dataset, http://data.worldbank.org, accessed July 23, 2016.

38.Strobe Talbott, The Russia Hand: A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy (2002; New York: Random House, 2003), pp. 7–8.

39.Robert Kagan, The Return of History and the End of Dreams (New York: First Vintage Books, 2008), p. 1.

40.Quoted in Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), pp. 138–139.

41.Vladimir Putin, “Putin’s Prepared Remarks at 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy,” speech, Munich, Germany, February 2007, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.

42.Ron Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West (New York: St. Martin’s, 2010).

43.Samuel Charap, “Beyond the Reset to Russia,” National Interest (July–August 2013).

44.Presentation by Philip Gordon, former assistant secretary for Europe, U.S. Department of State, 2009–2013, at the German Marshall Fund, September 21, 2015.

45.Quoted in Mike Dorning, “Obama Saw Too Late That Putin’s Return Would Undermine the Reset,” Bloomberg, February 19, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/obama-putin.

46.Stephen Lee Myers, The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin (New York: Knopf, 2015), Kindle edition, locations 7922, 7930.

47.Ibid., location 7954.

48.Dorning, “Obama Saw Too Late.”

49.David Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Prosperity in East Asia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2009).

50.Joshua Kurlantzick, “China’s Charm Offensive in Southeast Asia,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 1, 2006, http://carnegieendowment.org/2006/09/01/china-s-charm-offensive-in-southeast-asia/35wf.

51.Thomas Wright, “Strategic Engagement’s Track Record,” Washington Quarterly 33, no. 3 (July 2010): 35–60.

52.Jeffrey Bader, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), p. 80. For the case that Chinese assertiveness was not new, see Alastair Iain Johnston, “How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness?” International Security 37, no. 4 (Spring 2013): 7–48. Johnston does acknowledge, though, that China became more assertive in the maritime domain.

53.Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell, China’s Search for Security, 2nd ed. (Ithaca, NY: Columbia University Press, 2012), Kindle edition, pp. 98–99.

54.Jeffrey Bader, “How Xi Jinping Sees the World … And Why,” Asia Working Group Paper, Brookings Institution, February 2016, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Papers/2016/02/xi-jinping-worldview-bader/xi_jinping_worldview_bader.pdf?la=en.

55.President George W. Bush, Remarks at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC, November 6, 2003, http://www.ned.org/remarks-by-president-george-w-bush-at-the-20th-anniversary/.

56.President Obama, 2016 State of the Union Address, January 13, 2016, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepared-delivery-state-union-address.

57.Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, “A Tale of Two Depressions: What Does the New Data Tell Us?” VoxEu, March 8, 2010, http://www.voxeu.org/article/tale-two-depressions-what-do-new-data-tell-us-february-2010-update#jun09.

58.Jonathan Kirshner, American Power after the Financial Crisis (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014).

59.Raghuram Rajan, Faultlines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010), p. 4.

60.Michael Mandelbaum, Mission Failure: America and the World in the Post–Cold War Era (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), Kindle edition, location 246.

CHAPTER 2. EUROPE’S MULTIPLE CRISES

1. A Secure Europe in a Better World: European Security Strategy, Brussels, December 12, 2003, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/78367.pdf.

2.See, for instance, Mark Leonard, Why Europe Will Run the Twenty-First Century (New York: Public Affairs, 2006); T. R. Reid, The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy (New York: Penguin Press, 2004); Charles Kupchan, End of the American Era: US Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century (New York: Vintage Press, 2003).

3.Richard Haass, “Why Europe No Longer Matters,” Washington Post, June 17, 2011, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-europe-no-longer-matters/2011/06/15/AG7eCCZH_story.html.

4.“Unromantic” was the word Jeffrey Goldberg used to sum up President Obama’s view on Europe based on extensive conversations with him. See Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic (April 2016), http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

5.David Marsh, Europe’s Deadlock: How the Euro Crisis Could Be Solved—and Why It Won’t Happen (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008), Kindle edition, location 232.

6.Ambrose Evans Pritchard, “Financial Crisis: U.S. Will Lose Superpower Status, Claims German Minister,” Daily Telegraph, September 25, 2008, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3081909/Financial-Crisis-US-will-lose-superpower-status-claims-German-minister.html.

7.Ten-year bond yields for these countries are available from www.tradingeconomics.com. See http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-bond-yield; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-bond-yield; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-bond-yield; and http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield.

8.Quoted in Carlo Bastasin, Saving Europe: How National Politics Nearly Destroyed the Euro (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2012), p. 17.

9.German structural reforms took place at a time of global economic growth, a mild domestic recession, and low debt. These conditions limited or offset the contractionary effect of structural reform. They do not apply today. See Martin Wolf, “Germany’s Strange Parallel Universe,” Financial Times, September 24, 2013, https://www.ft.com/content/b3faf9b0-2489-11e3-8905-00144feab7de.

10.Wolfgang Schäuble, “Europe at a Crossroads (Again): A Conversation with Wolfgang Schäuble,” Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, April 16, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2015/04/16-wolfgang-schauble-eurozone-crossroads/20150416_germany_eurozone_schauble_transcript.pdf.

11.Barry Eichengreen, “The Break-Up of the Euro Area,” in Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, eds., Europe and the Euro (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010), pp. 11–51.

12.On Greece, see David Gordon and Thomas Wright, “No Exit: Why Greece and Europe Will Stay Attached,” Foreign Affairs, June 30, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/greece/2015-06-30/no-exit.

13.George Soros and Gregor Peter Schmitz, “The EU Is on the Verge of Collapse—An Interview,” New York Review of Books, February 11, 2016, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/11/europe-verge-collapse-interview/.

14.Author interview with a former senior EU official, Washington, DC, March 15, 2016.

15.Oil fell from $140 a barrel in 2008, just before the financial crisis, to $31 per barrel in 2016.

16.Vladimir Putin, “Meeting with Heads of Leading International News Agencies,” press conference, Saint Petersburg, May 24, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/21090.

17.Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (2013; Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2015), pp. 318–319.

18.Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), pp. 238–241.

19.Valery Gerasimov, “The Value of Science in Forecasting: New Challenges Require a Rethinking of the Forms and Methods of Warfare,” speech to the AVN (Military Sciences Academy) in late January 2013. Translation provided to author by Clifford Gaddy.

20.Ibid.

21.Ibid.

22.Army Modernization: Hearing before the Subcommittee on Airland of the Armed Services Committee, U.S. Senate, 114th Cong., 2016 (joint testimony from Lieutenant Generals Michael Williamson, Joseph Anderson, Herbert R. McMaster, and John Murray), http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/15-04-14-army-modernization.

23.Gustav Gressel, Russia’s Quiet Military Revolution and What It Means for Europe (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2015), p. 3.

24.Mark Galeotti, “Hybrid, Ambiguous, and Non-Linear? How New Is Russia’s ‘New Way of War’?,” Small Wars and Insurgencies 27, no. 2 (March 2016): 282–301.

25.Vladimir Putin, “Address by President of the Russian Federation,” press conference, The Kremlin, Moscow, March 18, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603.

26.Hill and Gaddy, Mr. Putin, p. 320.

27.For an excellent overview of Russian nuclear doctrine, see Elbridge Colby, “Russia’s Evolving Nuclear Doctrine and Its Implications,” Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, January 12, 2016, http://www.frstrategie.org/publications/notes/russia-s-evolving-nuclear-doctrine-and-its-implications-2016–01.

28.Zachary Keck, “Russia’s Military Begins Massive Nuclear War Drill,” Diplomat, March 29, 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/russias-military-begins-massive-nuclear-war-drill/.

29.For more on how domestic insecurity is driving Putin’s aggressive foreign policy, see Michael McFaul and Kathryn Stoner, “Who Lost Russia (This Time)? Vladimir Putin,” Washington Quarterly 38, no. 2 (2015): 167–187.

30.Quoted in Henry Kissinger, World Order (New York: Penguin Press, 2014), p. 52.

31.Ibid., p. 56.

32.Quoted in Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), Kindle edition, p. 63.

33.The UN special envoy in Syria said in April 2016 that the Syrian war had killed 400,000. In February, estimates by a Syrian non-governmental organization put the number at 470,000. See John Hudson, “UN Envoy Revises Syria Death Toll to 400,000,” Foreign Policy, April 22 ,2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/22/u-n-envoy-revises-syria-death-toll-to-400000/.

34.Deena Zaru, “Donald Trump Says US Should ‘Possibly’ Accept Refugees,” CNN, September 4, 2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/politics/donald-trump-refugee-migrant-crisis-syria/.

35.International Organization for Migration, Over 3,770 Migrants Have Died Trying to Cross the Mediterranean to Europe in 2015, December 31, 2015, http://www.iom.int/news/over-3770-migrants-have-died-trying-cross-mediterranean-europe-2015.

36.See Andrea Thomas, “Record Number of Asylum Seekers Flood Germany,” Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-records-rise-in-asylum-seekers-to-postwar-high-1452081246.

37.Author interviews with German officials, Washington, DC, January 2016.

38.Olivier Roy, “France’s Oedipal Islamist Complex,” Foreign Policy, January 7, 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/07/frances-oedipal-islamist-complex-charlie-hebdo-islamic-state-isis/.

39.“Cologne Assaults: Police Report Outlines ‘Chaotic and Shameful’ New Year’s Eve,” Der Spiegel, January 7, 2016, http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/cologne-attacks-on-new-years-produced-chaos-say-police-a-1070894.html.

40.Author interviews with EU and German officials, March 2016.

41.Patrick Collinson, “Bookies Got EU Vote Wrong, Ladbrokes Says,” Guardian, June 24, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/24/bookies-got-eu-vote-wrong-ladbrokes-says.

42.This section draws not just on the Goldberg article, but also on conversations with several individuals who have spoken with President Obama at length on Europe.

43.Vladimir Putin, “Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club,” press conference, Valdai International Discussion Club, Sochi, October 22, 2015, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548.

44.Natalie Nougayrède, “Europe Is in Crisis: Once More, America Will Have to Step in to Save Us,” Guardian, January 23, 2016, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/23/europe-crisis-america-save-us-again-refugees-security-brexit.

CHAPTER 3. CHINA’S EAST ASIA CHALLENGE

1.Ely Ratner, “Learning the Lessons of Scarborough Reef,” National Interest, November 21, 2013, accessed May 8, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/learning-the-lessons-scarborough-reef-9442.

2.Ibid.

3.Former senior U.S. official at off-the-record roundtable, Washington, DC, 2014.

4.Ratner, “Learning the Lessons of Scarborough Reef.”

5.Ryan D. Martinson, “China’s Second Navy,” Proceedings Magazine (April 2015), http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015–04–0/chinas-second-navy.

6.Andrew Erickson and Kevin Bond, “Dredging under the Radar: China Expands South China Sea Footprint,” National Interest, August 25, 2015, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/dredging-under-the-radar-china-expands-south-sea-foothold-13701.

7.Quoted in Andrew Erickson, “Doctrinal Sea Change, Making Real Waves: Examining the Naval Dimension of Strategy,” in Joe McReynolds, ed., China’s Evolving Military Strategy, prepublication edition (Washington, DC: Jameston Foundation, 2016), p. 113.

8.Fu Ying, “The US World Order Is a Suit That No Longer Fits,” Financial Times, January 6, 2016, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c09cbcb6-b3cb-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51.html#axzz40ulHNBNw.

9.G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

10.Thomas Christensen, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (New York: W. W. Norton, 2015), p. xv.

11.Ibid., p. 115.

12.Jeffrey Bader, “Changing China Policy: Are We in Search of Enemies?” Order from Chaos (blog), Brookings Institution, June 22, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2015/06/22-changing-china-policy-bader.

13.Robert Hartmann, “China Rising: Back to the Future,” Asia Times, March 16, 2007, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/IC16Ad01.html.

14.Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, China’s Search for Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012), p. 5.

15.Andrew Small, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics (New York: Oxford University Press), p. 164.

16.Ibid., p. 178.

17.Ibid., p. 179.

18.Yinhong Shi, director, Center on American Studies, Renmin University, in discussion with the author, October 2015.

19.Yinhong Shi, director, Center on American Studies, Renmin University, in discussion with the author, March 2016.

20.Some Chinese strategists have argued that China ought to emulate Russia and be willing to use force to advance its interests, but this is very much a minority position. The most prominent Chinese advocate of this position is Zhang Wenmu, a professor at Beihang University. For an analysis of his views see Lyle Goldstein, “Get Ready: China Could Pull a Crimea in Asia,” National Interest, April 11, 2015, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/get-ready-will-china-pull-crimea-asia-12605.

21.“US Pacific Command and US Forces Korea, before the Senate Armed Services Committee,” statement of Admiral Harry Harris, Jr., commander, U.S. Pacific Command, 114th Cong. (February 23, 2016). The hegemony remark was made in the questions and answers. For access to Admiral Harris’s testimony and video of the exchange, see: http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/16–02–23-us-pacific-command-and-us-forces-korea.

22.Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Island Builders: The People’s War at Sea,” Foreign Affairs, April 9, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2015–04–09/china-s-island-builders.

23.Megha Rajagopalan, “China Trains ‘Fishing Militia’ to Go into Disputed Waters,” Reuters, April 30, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-fishingboats-idUSKCN0XS0RS.

24.Manuel Mogato, “Exclusive: Philippines Reinforcing Rusting Ship on Spratly Reef Outpost,” Reuters, July 13, 2015, accessed on May 8, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-shoal-exclu-idUSKCN0PN2HN20150714.

25.“America’s Security Role in the South China Sea, before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific,” statement of Patrick Cronin, senior adviser and senior director, Asia-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security, 114th Cong. (July 23, 2015), https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-americas-security-role-in-the-south-china-sea/.

26.The most dramatic example of China using its coast guard to bully its neighbors occurred in the Scarborough Reef in 2012, though this was not an isolated incident. China used new fishing regulations to take action against Philippine and Vietnamese ships. In addition, China placed and protected a China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) deep-water oil rig (called HD-981) in the Parcel Islands close to the Vietnam coast in May of 2014. See Patrick M. Cronin et al., Tailored Coercion: Competition and Risk in Maritime Asia (Washington, DC: Center for a New America Security, March 2014).

27.Ashton Carter, “A Security Architecture Where Everyone Rises,” speech, The Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore, May 30, 2015.

28.U.S. Department of Defense, The Asia Pacific Maritime Security Strategy: Achieving US National Security Objectives in a Changing Environment (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, July 27, 2015), p. 16, accessed May 8, 2016, http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/NDAA%20A-P_Maritime_SecuritY_Strategy-08142015–1300-FINALFORMAT.PDF.

29.Ibid., p. 5.

30.Ibid., p. 1.

31.This is the Japanese government’s official count for the period between September 1, 2012, and February 16, 2016. See Current Japan-China Relations, briefing document (Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 2016), p. 8.

32.Franz Stefan Gady, “Japan’s Fighter Jets Intercepted Chinese Aircraft 571 Times in 2015,” Diplomat, April 26, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/japans-fighter-jets-intercepted-chinese-aircraft-571-times-in-2015/.

33.China’s Recent Air and Maritime Activities in East China Sea (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs, February 2016), p. 4.

34.Author interview with senior Japanese official no. 2, Tokyo, March 4, 2016.

35.Author interviews with Chinese policy experts in Beijing, October 11–14, 2015.

36.Caitlin Campbell et al., “China’s ‘Core Interests’ and the East China Sea,” US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Backgrounder, May 20, 2013, http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China’s%20Core%20Interests%20and%20the%20East%20China%20Sea.pdf.

37.Hillary Clinton, “Closing Remarks for U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue,” speech, U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Washington, DC, July 28, 2009, http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/july/126599.htm.

38.Campbell et al., “China’s ‘Core Interests,’” p. 4.

39.Edward Wong, “China’s Security Law Suggests a Broadening of China’s ‘Core Interests,’” New York Times, July 2, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/world/asia/security-law-suggests-a-broadening-of-chinas-core-interests.html?_r=0.

40.Cui Tiankai and Pang Hanzhao, “China-US Relations in China’s Overall Diplomacy in the New Era,” in Chinese International Strategy Review, 2012 (San Francisco: Long River Press, 2013). Also available from the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Malaysia, http://my.china-embassy.org/eng/zgxw/t954784.htm.

41.Author interviews, Beijing, October 11–14, 2015.

42.Quoted in Edward Wong, “Beijing Warns US about South China Sea Disputes,” New York Times, June 22, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/23/world/asia/23china.html?_r=0.

43.Cui Tiankai, “China and America: Stay Focused on What Really Matters,” National Interest, August 26, 2015.

44.Author interview with Japanese official, Tokyo, March 4, 2016.

45.President Barack Obama, “Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament,” speech, Parliament House, Canberra, Australia, November 17, 2011, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament. See also Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, “Remarks on the Next Phase of the US Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific,” speech, The McCain Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, April 6, 2015, http://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/606660. For a comprehensive analysis of the strategy by one of its chief architects, see Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (New York: Twelve Books, 2016).

46.Nina Silove, “The Pivot before the Pivot: U.S. Strategy to Preserve the Power Balance in Asia,” International Security 40, no. 4 (Spring 2016): 45–88.

47.For instance, see the congressionally mandated report by CSIS on the future of the rebalance: Michael Green, Kathleen Hicks, and Mark Cancian, Asia-Pacific Rebalance, 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships; an Independent Review of US Defense Strategy in the Asia Pacific, report (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2016).

48.President Barack Obama, “The TPP Would Let America, Not China, Lead the Way on Global Trade,” Washington Post, May 2, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obama-the-tpp-would-let-america-not-china-lead-the-way-on-global-trade/2016/05/02/680540e4-0fd0-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html?utm_term=.79b4ed3f369f.

49.Yuka Hayashi, “For Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Unfinished Family Business,” Wall Street Journal, December 11, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-japans-shinzo-abe-unfinished-family-business-1418354470.

50.For a description of Abe’s strategy, see Michael Auslin, “Japan’s New Realism,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2016), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/japans-new-realism.

51.Author interview with senior Japanese naval officer, Tokyo, March 1, 2016.

52.Opinion polls by Yomiuri, Asahi, and Nikkei in January 2016 all showed 46 percent opposed to the revision of the constitution, with 36 percent, 33 percent, and 34 percent supportive (respectively).

53.Author interview, senior Japanese naval officer, Tokyo, March 1, 2016.

54.Author interview with senior Japanese official no. 2, Tokyo, March 3, 2016.

55.Patrick M. Cronin et al., The Emerging Asia Power Web: The Rise of Bilateral Intra Asia Security Ties, report (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, June 2013), https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-emerging-asia-power-web-the-rise-of-bilateral-intra-asian-security-ties.

56.Edward Luttwak, The Rise of China versus the Logic of Strategy (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2012), p. 66.

57.Minxin Pei, China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016).

58.David Shambaugh, “The Coming Chinese Crackup,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659198.

59.Ruchir Sharma, “How China Fell off the Miracle Path,” New York Times, June 3, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/05/opinion/sunday/how-china-fell-off-the-miracle-path.html.

60.See Dale Copeland, The Origins of Major War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

CHAPTER 4. GEOPOLITICS AND CONTAGION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

1.Tamara Wittes, “Remarks at Princeton University Conference on Global Governance,” Princeton, NJ, May 14, 2016.

2.Quoted in Ryan Lizza, “The Consequentialist: How the Arab Spring Remade Obama’s Foreign Policy,” New Yorker, May 2, 2011.

3.Shadi Hamid, “Islamism, the Arab Spring, and the Failure of America’s Do-Nothing Policy in the Middle East,” Atlantic, October 9, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/middle-east-egypt-us-policy/409537/.

4.Robert F. Worth, A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Turmoil: From Tahrir Square to ISIS (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2016), Kindle edition, location 104.

5.Ibid.

6.Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 22, 2016.

7.Emma Sky, “Who Lost Iraq?” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2014, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iraq/2014–06–24/who-lost-iraq.

8.Emma Sky, The Unraveling: High Hopes and Missed Opportunities in Iraq (New York: Public Affairs, 2015), p. 338.

9.Quoted in Deter Filkins, “The Shadow Commander,” New Yorker, September 30, 2013, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander.

10.Sky, “Who Lost Iraq?”

11.Lizza, “The Consequentialist.”

12.Marc Lynch, “Obama and the Middle East: Rightsizing the US Role,” Foreign Affairs (September/October 2015), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/obama-and-middle-east.

13.Dennis Ross, “Why Middle Eastern Leaders Are Talking to Putin, Not Obama,” Politico Magazine, May 8, 2016, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/putin-obama-middle-east-leaders-213867.

14.Quoted in Michael Grunwald, “Ben Rhodes and the Tough Sell of Obama’s Foreign Policy,” Politico Magazine, May 10, 2016.

15.President Barack Obama, “Remarks to the UN General Assembly,” September 24, 2013, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/09/24/remarks-president-obama-address-united-nations-general-assembly.

16.For instance, see Steven Simon and Benjamin Stevenson, “The End of Pax Americana,” Foreign Affairs (November/December 2015), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/end-pax-americana.

17.President Barack Obama, The State of the Union, January 13, 2016, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepared-delivery-state-union-address.

18.Philip Gordon, “The Middle East Is Falling Apart. The US Is Not to Blame. There Is No Easy Fix,” Politico, June 4, 2015, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/america-not-to-blame-for-middle-east-falling-apart-118611#ixzz3zWF3y2Ap.

19.David Crist, The Twilight War: The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran (New York: Penguin Books, 2013), chapter 27 and epilogue.

20.Frederic Wehrey et al., Saudi-Iranian Relations since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for US Policy (Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2009).

21.F. Gregory Gause III, “Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War,” Brookings Doha Center Analysis Paper, no. 11, July 2014, p. 8.

22.Ibid., p. 19.

23.Olivier Roy, “The Sunni-Shia Divide: Where Religion Masks Geo-Strategy,” in Luigi Narbone and Martin Lestra, The Gulf Monarchies beyond the Arab Spring: Changes and Challenges (Florence: European University Institute, 2015).

24.Gregory Gause, The Gulf States and Iran: Two Misunderstandings and One Possible Game Changer, James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy of Rice University, Houston, 2016.

25.Gause, “Beyond Sectarianism.”

26.“Transcript: Interview with Muhammad bin Salman,” Economist, January 6, 2016, http://www.economist.com/saudi_interview.

27.Robin Wright, “Iran and Saudi Arabia: The Showdown between Islam’s Rival Powers,” New Yorker, January 4, 2016, http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/iran-and-saudi-arabia-the-showdown-between-islams-rival-powers.

28.Afshon Ostovar, Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), Kindle edition, locations 4278, 4290.

29.Ibid., location 4323–4362.

30.Ibid., location 4623.

31.Crist, Twilight War.

32.For an account of the Syrian civil war, see Emile Hokeyam, Syria Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (London: Routledge Press, 2013), and Charles Lister, The Syrian Jihad, Al-Qaeda, The Islamic State, and the Evolution of an Insurgency (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013).

33.Quoted in Ostovar, Vanguard of the Imam, location 4661.

34.Ibid., location 4731–4749.

35.For a good summary of the academic literature on this topic, see Max Fischer, “Syria’s Paradox: Why the War Only Ever Seems to Get Worse,” New York Times, August 26, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-why-get-worse.html.

36.I am grateful to Bruce Jones for this point.

37.Ivan Krastev, “Putin Looks for Regime Change in Turkey,” Bloomberg View, January 14, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-01-14/putin-looks-for-regime-change-in-turkey.

38.Ostovar, Vanguard of the Imam, location 4971–5212; David Ignatius, “Iran Overplays Its Hand,” Washington Post, July 3, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.html?utm_term=.051ce1e75108.

39.Jeremy Shapiro and Laura Daniels, “The US Plan to Counter Russia in Syria,” Brookings Order from Chaos (blog), November 17, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/11/17-us-plan-to-counter-russia-shapiro-daniels.

40.David Remnick, “Going the Distance: On and Off the Road with Barack Obama,” New Yorker, January 27, 2014, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/27/going-the-distance-david-remnick.

41.That this is Obama’s view was the central point made by Jeffrey Goldberg after interviewing him for hours on the topic. See Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

42.Vladimir Putin, “Address to the United Nations General Assembly,” September 28, 2015, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385.

43.Dmitri Trenin, “Russia in the Middle East: Moscow’s Objectives, Priorities, and Policy Drivers,” Task Force White Paper, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, April 5, 2016, http://carnegie.ru/2016/04/05/russia-in-middle-east-moscow-s-objectives-priorities-and-policy-drivers/iwni.

44.Michael Singh, “China’s Middle East Tour,” Foreign Affairs Snapshot, January 24, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016–01–24/chinas-middle-east-tour.

45.“China Issues Arab Policy Paper,” China Daily, January 13, 2016, http://www.china.org.cn/world/2016-01/13/content_37569936.htm.

46.Li Xiaokun, “Syrian Opposition Leader to Start 4 Day Beijing Visit,” China Daily, January 5, 2016, http://www.chinadailyasia.com/nation/2016-01/05/content_15367342.html.

47.Off-the-record discussion with Chinese Middle East expert, March 7, 2016. See also Xue Li and Zheng Yuwen, “The Future of China’s Diplomacy in the Middle East,” Diplomat, July 26, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/the-future-of-chinas-diplomacy-in-the-middle-east/.

CHAPTER 5. INTERDEPENDENT COMPETITION

1.Nicholas Lambert, Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012).

2.There is a robust debate in international relations theory on this topic. For a broad overview, see Edward Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003).

3.Albert O. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1945).

4.Jeremy Adelman, Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013).

5.World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed September 16, 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

6.OECD, “Measuring Globalization: Better Data for Better Policy,” agenda, FDI Statistics Workshop, Paris, March 20, 2014, p. 1, http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/2014-FDI-Statistics-Workshop-Agenda.pdf.

7.Mark Leonard, Weaponising Interdependence, European Council on Foreign Relations, January 20, 2016, http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/connectivity_wars_5064.

8.Ibid.

9.This was originally said by French president Giscard D’Estaing, who meant it as an insult.

10.Benn Steil, “Taper Trouble: The International Consequences of the Fed’s Policies,” Foreign Affairs (July–August 2015), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014–06–04/taper-trouble.

11.Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan, “Top Risks 2015,” Eurasia Group, January 5, 2015, https://www.eurasiagroup.net/media/eurasia-group-publishes-top-risks-2015.

12.Juan Zarate, Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare (New York: Public Affairs, 2013), Kindle edition, location 154.

13.Jack Lew, “Remarks of Secretary Lew at CSIS,” speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, June 2, 2014, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2414.aspx.

14.Zarate, Treasury’s War, location 6667.

15.Walter R. Mead, “Russia Threatens SWIFT,” American Interest, January 26, 2015, http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/26/russia-threatens-swift/.

16.International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, Washington, DC, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx.

17.The U.S. sanctions are detailed at https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx.

18.Kathrin Hille and Martin Arnold, “Sberbank Says Sanctions Hit Global Financial System,” Financial Times, August 1, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/190a5378-1958-11e4-9745-00144feabdc0.

19.Jarosław Cwiek-Karpowicz and Stanislav Secrieru, eds., Sanctions and Russia (Warsaw: Polish Institute of International Affairs, 2015), pp. 21–32, http://www.pism.pl/files/?id_plik=19045.

20.“Russia—Trade—European Commission,” European Commission, last modified March 10, 2016, http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/.

21.“US-Russian Trade Relationship? There Isn’t Really One,” Fortune, March 18, 2014, http://fortune.com/2014/03/18/u-s-russian-trade-relationship-there-really-isnt-one/.

22.Peter Spiegel and Geoff Dyer, “EU and US Present United Front with Tough Sanctions on Russia,” Financial Times, July 29, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/1905aac0-1738-11e4-87c0-00144feabdc0.

23.Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on Ukraine,” speech, White House, Washington, DC, July 29, 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/29/statement-president-ukraine.

24.It subsequently recovered to 50 to 1 in May 2015, only to fall back to 69 to 1 in August 2015. See http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR.

25.Anna Andrianova, “Russian GDP Plunges 4.6%,” Bloomberg, August 10, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015–08–10/russian-economy-shrinks-4-6-as-oil-slump-risks-deeper-recession.

26.“Update 2—Russian Economy Stagnates as Capital Flight Hits $75 Billion,” Reuters, July 9, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-money-idUSL6N0PK43020140709.

27.Alice Ross, Chris Bryant, and Camilla Hall, “Russian Crisis Already Taking Toll on Western Businesses,” Financial Times, July 31, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/494e088e-18ce-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0?siteedition=uk.

28.“Russian Inflation Rate, 1991–2016,” Trading Economics, accessed September 8, 2015, http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi.

29.Sabrina Tavernise, “Inflation Robs Russians of Buying Power,” New York Times, August 18, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/world/europe/russians-feel-rubles-fall-but-putin-remains-mostly-unscathed.html.

30.Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013), pp. 222–225.

31.Quoted in Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes, “Putin’s Third Way,” National Interest (January–February 2009), http://nationalinterest.org/article/putins-third-way-2958.

32.“Western Sanctions See Russia Looking to China for Military, Aerospace Components,” Sputnik News, June 8, 2014, http://sputniknews.com/military/20140806/191767747/Western-Sanctions-See-Russia-Looking-to-China-for-Military.html.

33.Vladimir Putin, “Security Council Meeting,” remarks at Security Council meeting, Kremlin, Moscow, July 22, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46305.

34.Jonathan Kirshner, American Power after the Financial Crisis (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014), p. 107.

35.David Barboza, “Billions in Hidden Riches for Family of Chinese Leader,” New York Times, October 25, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/business/global/family-of-wen-jiabao-holds-a-hidden-fortune-in-china.html.

36.Edward Wong, “Bloomberg News Is Said to Curb Articles That May Anger China,” New York Times, November 8, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/09/world/asia/bloomberg-news-is-said-to-curb-articles-that-might-anger-china.html.

37.David Brunnstrom, “US Warns China Not to Attempt Crimea-Style Action in Asia,” Reuters, April 4, 2014, http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-crimea-asia-idUKBREA3300020140404.

38.Philippe le Corre and Alain Sepulchre, China’s Offensive in Europe (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2016).

39.Stuart Gottlieb and Eric Lorber, “The Dark Side of Interdependence,” Foreign Affairs, August 5, 2014, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2014–08–05/dark-side-interdependence.

40.Ed Crooks and Jack Farchy, “Exxon Considers Its Course after Sanctions Hit Russian Ambitions,” Financial Times, September 30, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/586ae5c0-487c-11e4-ad19-00144feab7de.

41.Hille and Arnold, “Sberbank Says Sanctions Hit Global Financial System.”

42.Anne Applebaum, “Russia’s Corrupt Chokehold on Europe,” Slate, July 25, 2014, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/russia_s_corrupt_control_of_europe_how_vladimir_putin_keeps_the_continent.html.

43.For analysis of the New Silk Road see James McBride, “The New Silk Road,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 15, 2015, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/building-new-silk-road/p36573.

44.Xi Jinping, “Promote Friendship between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future,” speech, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan, September 7, 2013, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cebel/eng/zxxx/t1078088.htm.

45.Gabriel Wildau, “New BRICS Bank in Shanghai to Challenge Major Institutions,” Financial Times, July 21, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/d8e26216-2f8d-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d.

46.Gillian Tett and Jack Farchy, “Russian Banker Warns West over SWIFT,” Financial Times, January 23, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/7020c50c-a30a-11e4-9c06-00144feab7de.

47.Kathrin Hille, “Sanction-Scarred Russian Groups Eye BRIC Finance Options,” Financial Times, July 7, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/20275444-24ec-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.

48.Di Dongsheng, “The Renminbi’s Rise and Chinese Politics,” in Alan Wheatley, ed., Power of Currencies and the Currencies of Power (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2013), chapter 6.

49.Krishna Guha, “Paulson Claims Russia Tried to Foment Fannie-Freddie Crisis,” Financial Times, January 29, 2010, https://www.ft.com/content/ffd950c4-0d0a-11df-a2dc-00144feabdc0.

50.The raw data of foreign holdings of U.S. debt can be found at U.S. Treasury Department, “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities,” http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt; Marc Labonte and Jared Nagel, Foreign Holdings of US Debt, CRS Report RS33251 (Washington, DC: CRS, June 24, 2013), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf. The statement that foreign holdings are at a record high referred to the number for December 2012, but it still applies because the figure for May 2013 was larger still.

51.There is a large drop to third place, which is held by a collection of oil exporters with a total of $266 trillion. See U.S. Treasury Department, “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities.”

52.For example, “China Must Punish US for Taiwan Arm Sales with ‘Financial Weapon,’” People’s Daily, August 8, 2011, http://english.people.com.cn/90780/91342/7562776.html.

53.For example, see Daniel Drezner, “Bad Debts: Assessing China’s Financial Influence in Great Power Politics,” International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 7–45.

54.James Reilly, “China’s Unilateral Sanctions,” Washington Quarterly 35, no. 4 (2012): 121–133.

55.See Peter Singer and Allan Friedman, Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014), p. 138.

56.Ibid., p. 141.

57.Ibid., p. 142.

58.Joe Davidson, “OPM Hackers Are More Likely to Get Counterintelligence Action Than Criminal Charges, Report Says,” Washington Post, July 28, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/federal-eye/wp/2015/07/28/opm-hackers-are-more-likely-to-get-counterintelligence-measures-than-charges-report-says/.

59.Ellen Nakashima, “With a Series of Major Hacks, China Builds a Database on Americans,” Washington Post, June 5, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-a-series-of-hacks-china-appears-to-building-a-database-on-americans/2015/06/05/d2af51fa-0ba3-11e5-95fd-d580f1c5d44e_story.html.

60.Julianne Pepitone, “China Is the ‘Leading Suspect’ in OPM Hacks Says US Intelligence Chief James Clapper,” NBC News, June 25, 2015, http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/clapper-china-leading-suspect-opm-hack-n381881.

61.Ankit Panda, “Former US Spymaster: China Could Use OPM Data to Recruit Spies,” Diplomat, June 17, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/former-us-spymaster-china-could-use-opm-data-to-recruit-spies/.

62.This section draws on my 2013 article on interdependence. See Thomas Wright, “Sifting Through Interdependence,” Washington Quarterly 36, no. 4 (Fall 2013): 12–13.

63.Christopher Joye, “Transcript: Interview with former CIA, NSA Chief Michael V. Hayden,” Australian Financial Review, July 19, 2013, http://genius.com/Michael-hayden-interview-regarding-edward-snowden-cyber-security-and-transparency-annotated.

64.Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, U.S. House of Representatives, Investigative Report on the U.S. National Security Issues Posed by Chinese Telecommunications Companies Huawei and ZTE, 112th Congress, October 8, 2012, http://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/Huawei-ZTE%20Investigative%20Report%20(FINAL).pdf.

65.See Shelley Shan, “National Security Concerns Leads to Parts Ban,” Taipei Times, June 30, 2011, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2011/06/30/2003507055; Maggie Lu Yueyang, “Australia Bans Huawei from Broadband Project,” New York Times, March 26, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/technology/australia-bars-huawei-from-broadband-project.html?_r=0; Ray Le Maistre, “Huawei Denied German Bid,” Light Reading, October 5, 2012, http://www.lightreading.com/author.asp?section_id=210&doc_id=695791.

66.Daniel Thomas, Jim Pickard, and James Blitz, “Cameron Reaffirms Support for Huawei,” Financial Times, October 19, 2012, https://www.ft.com/content/ad81935a-19ea-11e2-a179-00144feabdc0; Kalyan Parbat, “Government Shuts Out Top Global Network Vendors from Rs 21,000 Crore Fibre Optic Venture,” Economic Times, January 19, 2013, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/telecom/government-shuts-out-top-global-network-vendors-from-rs-21000-crore-fibre-optic-venture/articleshow/18086110.cms.

67.James Kynge and Lucy Hornby, “Hinkley Decision Threatens UK ‘Golden Era’ with China,” Financial Times, July 31, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/d087a126-572d-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.

68.Jamie Smyth, “Australia Moves to Block a $10 Billion Power Grid Sale to Chinese,” Financial Times, August 11, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/918980ce-5f8f-11e6-ae3f-77baadeb1c93.

CHAPTER 6. DEVISING A STRATEGY

1.U.S. National Security Council, NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security; A Report to the President Pursuant to the President’s Directive of January 31, 1950 (Washington, DC: National Security Council, 1950), quoted in Ernest May, ed., American Cold War Strategy: Interpreting NSC-68 (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1993).

2.For a detailed account of the liberal order, see G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

3.Reinhold Niebuhr, The Irony of American History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1952), p. 1.

4.Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years at the State Department (New York: Norton, 1969).

5.See Jason Davidson, The Origins of Revisionist and Status-Quo States (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006).

6.Andrew Kydd, “Sheep in Sheep’s Clothing: Why Security Seekers Do Not Fight Each Other,” Security Studies 7, no. 1 (Autumn 1997): 114–154; John H. Herz, “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 2, no. 2 (January 1950): 157–180.

7.Randall L. Schweller, “Neorealism’s Status Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?” Security Studies 5, no. 3 (1996): 98–101.

8.Davidson, Origins of Revisionist and Status-Quo States, pp. 12–14.

9.The only major power that really flirted with revisionism after 1990 was, ironically, the United States, which expanded NATO and the U.S. alliance system in Asia, and sought to remake the Middle East. Yet it is important to note one crucial distinction between revisionism by the United States in Europe and Asia and past revisionists: the states that joined the U.S. alliance system did so by choice and to protect themselves against troublesome neighbors.

10.For an excellent analysis of modern revisionism see Jakub Grygiel and Wess Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).

11.Paul Kennedy, Strategy and Diplomacy, 1870–1945: Eight Studies, 2nd ed. (London: Fontana Press, 1989), chapter 2.

12.W. Averell Harriman and Elie Abel, Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941–1946 (New York: Random House, 1975), 236.

13.The literature on this is vast. For the case that America is not in decline, see Bruce Jones, Still Ours to Lead: America, Rising Powers, and the Tension between Rivalry and Restraint (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2014). For the case that the United States is in decline, see Christopher Layne, “This Time It’s Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana,” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1 (March 2012): 203–213.

14.This passage draws on Thomas Wright, “Review Essay on American Decline,” Orbis 54, no. 3 (2010): 479–488.

15.Quoted in William Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 9.

16.William Wohlforth and Stephen Brooks, “The Once and Future Superpower: Why China Won’t Overtake the United States,” Foreign Affairs (May–June 2016): 93.

17.Ibid.

18.Daniel Yergin, Shattered Peace: The Origins of the Cold War (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1977), p. 13.

19.Henry Kissinger, Problems of National Strategy: A Book of Readings (New York: Praeger, 1965), p. 7.

20.Barry Posen, Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983), p. 13.

21.Stephen Sestanovich, Maximalist: America in the World from Truman to Obama (New York: Vintage Press, 2014).

22.Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

23.Ibid.

24.Ibid.

25.Nina Hachigian and David Shorr, “The Responsibility Doctrine,” Washington Quarterly (Winter 2013): 73–91, http://csis.org/files/publication/TWQ_13Winter_HachigianShorr.pdf.

26.Goldberg, “Obama Doctrine.”

27.Ibid.

28.David B. Larter, “White House Tells the Pentagon to Quit Talking about Competition with China,” Navy Times, September 26, 2016, https://www.navytimes.com/articles/white-house-tells-the-pentagon-to-quit-talking-about-competition-with-china.

29.John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, “The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior US Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs (July–August 2016), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016–06–13/case-offshore-balancing.

30.Barry Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2015).

31.Ian Bremmer, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World (New York: Penguin, 2015).

32.Thomas Wright, “Donald Trump’s 19th Century Foreign Policy,” Politico, January 20, 2016. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546.

33.John Kerry, “Remarks on US Policy in the Western Hemisphere,” speech, Organization of American States, Washington, DC, November 18, 2013, accessed May 7, 2016, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/11/217680.htm.

34.George H. W. Bush, “Remarks to the Citizens in Mainz,” speech, Rheingoldhalle, Mainz, Federal Republic of Germany, May 31, 1989, accessed May 7, 2016, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=17085.

35.Hugh White, “Need to Face the Facts in Asia,” East Asia Forum, April 18, 2016, accessed May 7, 2016, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/04/18/need-to-face-the-facts-in-asia/. See also Michael Swaine, “The Real Challenge in the Pacific,” Foreign Affairs (May–June 2015), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2015–04–20/real-challenge-pacific.

36.Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power (Collingwood, Australia: Black, 2012), Kindle edition, location 117.

37.Lyle Goldstein, Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging U.S.-China Rivalry (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2015), pp. 211, 244.

38.Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro, “How to Avoid a New Cold War,” Current History (October 2014): 265–271.

39.Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro, “Consequences of a New Cold War,” Survival 57, no. 2 (April–May 2015).

CHAPTER 7. RESPONSIBLE COMPETITION

1.I am grateful to Stephen Hadley for this point.

2.Robert Kagan, “Superpowers Don’t Get to Retire,” New Republic, May 26, 2014, https://newrepublic.com/article/117859/superpowers-dont-get-retire.

3.Richard Haass, Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s House in Order (New York: Basic Books, 2013); Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbau, That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back (New York: Picador Books, 2012).

4.Stephen Peter Rosen, “Competitive Strategies: Theoretical Foundations, Limitations, and Extensions,” in Thomas Mahnken, ed., Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice (Stanford, CA: Stanford Security Studies, 2012), p. 12.

5.Henry Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership (New York: Anchor Books, 1966).

6.Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better (New York: Penguin Press, 2011).

7.Lawrence Summers, “What’s Behind the Revolt against Global Integration?” Washington Post, April 10, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/whats-behind-the-revolt-against-global-integration/2016/04/10/b4c09cb6-fdbb-11e5-80e4-c381214de1a3_story.html?utm_term=.72aaa0ad7d17.

8.Tamara Wittes, “Remarks at Princeton University Conference on Global Governance,” lecture, Princeton University Conference on Global Governance, Princeton, NJ, May 14, 2016.

9.Andrew Shearer, Australia-Japan-US Maritime Cooperation: Creating Federated Capabilities for the Asia Pacific, draft report (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 23, 2016), 27.

10.Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

11.Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2016), pp. 229–231.

12.Shearer, Australia-Japan-US Maritime Cooperation, p. 5.

13.See Saudi Vision 2030, http://vision2030.gov.sa/en.

14.Bruce Riedel, Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and America since FDR (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, forthcoming).

15.I am grateful to Matthew Spence for this point.

16.The case for hard-headed engagement with Iran to stabilize the Middle East is made in Zalmay Khalizad, “The Neo-Conservative Case for Negotiating with Iran,” Politico Magazine, March 28, 2016, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/iran-negotiation-foreign-policy-middle-east-213772?paginate=false.

17.Edward Wong, “Search for Lost Jet Is Complicated by Geopolitics and Rivalries,” New York Times, March 26, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/world/asia/geopolitical-rivalries-jet.html.

EPILOGUE

1.Thomas Wright, “Donald Trump’s 19th Century Foreign Policy,” Politico, January 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546.