This section shows the correct method for determining the value of a company using the constant growth dividend capitalization model. Explanations are presented of (1) the variables defined in the model and (2) the valuation techniques and who uses them.
Financial information is an important determinant of company value. We need to know how the financial statements affect company value.
The value of a company is determined largely by its ability to earn a profit. We want to know how the interpretation of the company’s financial statements affects the value of the company. The value of a company is, after all, a reflection of the owner’s wealth.
The owner of a company needs to know the company’s value if he or she (1) is expecting to sell the company, or (2) is determining borrowing capacity.
The potential owner of a company must understand the concept of company value to determine how much to pay for the company.
A banker must understand company value when determining a company’s borrowing capacity or collateral value.
For large companies, security analysts spend considerable time with valuation techniques. This is not important for our purposes. We want to understand how financial statement information affects company value.
Our purpose in examining valuation is to give us a gauge by which we can determine the effect of the ratios on the company’s value.
The value of a company’s equity is the present value of cash flows (dividends) that can be taken out of the company. Value is affected by the company’s cash earnings, the expected growth rate of cash earnings and the company’s risk. Cash earnings and growth are positively related to company value, whereas risk is negatively related to company value.
Mathematically this expression can be reduced to
Value
FCF = Funds that can be withdrawn from the business are called “free cash flow”
R = Risk adjusted rate of return
G = Expected growth rate
In the numerator, the expression FCF represents the company’s free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash left over after all necessary investments have been made and expenses paid. Whenever we examine a ratio or other financial data that relates to a company’s earning power, valuation can be referred to. Specifically, if a company’s earning power increases (FCF goes up), then the value of the company will go up.
In the denominator, the expression R represents a company’s cost of equity capital. As a company’s risk increases, its cost of equity increases. It is important to note that if a company’s risk is increasing (liquidity or financial risk), then its value is declining. As R rises, the company’s equity value declines.
R is the rate of return required by equity holders. Because equity is riskier than debt to investors, R is greater than a company’s cost of debt. In large companies, it has been estimated that R is roughly three percent greater than the company’s cost of debt.
The second term in the denominator, G, represents the company’s ability to grow in terms of earning power. As G rises, the value of the company will rise.
What is the dividend capacity of a privately held company? This example will clarify the issue. Suppose that the owner of a company (C-corporation) pays a $150,000 salary to himself or herself for a job that he or she could hire an outside manager to do for $50,000. The owner’s added salary is $100,000. This practice eliminates the double taxation of dividends.
Example | |
Dividend paid | $75,000 |
Owner’s salary | 150,000 |
Equivalent manager’s salary | 50,000 |
The added salary of $100,000 was tax deductible as a salary, but it would not be tax deductible as a dividend. At a 50 percent tax rate, it would be worth only $50,000 as a dividend.
Real dividend computation | |
Dividend paid | $75,000 |
Adjustment for salary | 50,000* |
Free cash flow | $125,000 |
* $100,000 (1 - .5) with an assumed 50% tax rate
Therefore, free cash flow represents the earning power of the company in terms of cash flows that the owner(s) may withdraw from the company. If a decision is made that increases the company’s cash flows, then the company’s value is increased. If a decision is made that increases the company’s risk, then the value is decreased. Financial statement analysis is used to measure both the risk and return of the company.
Note also that in valuing a business one should look for other inefficiencies that may reduce FCF and the value of the business.
Using the data in the example, estimate this company’s value if it has a cost of capital of 12 percent and an expected growth rate of 2 percent.
You are the CFO of a medium sized publicly traded company. The CEO and 25 percent owner of the company wants to sell her shares in the company and retire. She is thinking about engaging in a new risky venture that has the chance of dramatically increasing reported income. She hopes that this would increase the stock price. She has asked your opinion.