This book is based on my life’s work studying confidence and overconfidence. That work is collaborative, and I owe deep debts of gratitude to my coauthors, students, mentors, and advisors. This is a long list that includes Jenn Logg, Liz Tenney, Derek Schatz, Uriel Haran, Sam Swift, Daylian Cain, Nate Meikle, Francesca Gino, Zach Sharek, Cameron Anderson, Jessica Kennedy, Phil Tetlock, Barb Mellers, Dan Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, Sunita Sah, Rob MacCoun, Terry Murray, Welton Chang, Pavel Atanasov, and many others. But a deeper debt goes to George Loewenstein, my colleague and mentor in my first job at Carnegie Mellon, who encouraged me to follow my hunches to the fertile research topics that have fueled my career. And then there is the deepest debt of all, to my doctoral advisor, Max Bazerman. I aspire to be as great a scientist, as wise a mentor, and as noble a person as Max.
I must also mention my wonderful colleagues at UC Berkeley: Leif Nelson, Ellen Evers, Clayton Critcher, Juliana Schroeder, Severin Borenstin, Drew Jacoby-Senghor, Sameer Srivastava, Andy Rose, Barry Schwartz, Ned Augenblick, Mathijs De Vaan, Laura Kray, Jenny Chatman, Toby Stuart, Dana Carney, and Alain Kesseru, among others. They make it fun to come to work every day. They set a high bar for intellectual rigor and for quality scholarship. I strive to live up to the impressive standards they set. Sameer and Barry deserve a special note of thanks for reading the first full draft of this book and providing me thoughtful and wise feedback.
I must offer my appreciation for the team of students and research assistants who are or have been part of my lab group at UC Berkeley. Thanks to Amelia Dev, Shreya Agrawal, Christina Carr, Mary Ford, Aditya Kotak, Ekaterina Goncherova, Sydney Mayes, Sean Sinisgalli, Maya Shen, Cody Strohl, Mitchell Wong, Winnie Yan, and Andrew Zheng. The first among these is the brilliant Amelia Dev, whom I am fortunate to be able to have as my lab manager.
This book would not have been possible without the heroic efforts of a small village in which I am fortunate to reside. First, I must acknowledge the tireless encouragement and patient support of my agent, Margo Fleming. She convinced me to pick the project back up after I had given up on it. She had confidence when I did not. Margo was my advocate, mentor, and consigliere throughout the process. She made the process a joy. I often wondered whether Margo was overconfident about me and this book’s potential.
I could not have hoped for a better editor than Hollis Heimbouch at HarperBusiness. At every point, I expected her to tell me to throw away what I had written and start over. Instead, she provided generous encouragement and the gentle guidance I needed. I will be forever grateful for her faith in my vision and her willingness to bet on this project. I hope that the confidence she and Margo displayed in this book will be borne out.
Most of all, thanks to my family. My mother taught me to see the many facets of optimism, happiness, and confidence. My father served as an inspiration to this book in many ways. First, he personified the high costs of pessimism, caution, and underconfidence. He missed out on many of life’s joys, rewards, and surprises because he was so fearful that any risk would turn into disaster. Second, he provided many useful examples for this book. I miss him and his gloomy sense of humor.
My wonderful wife, Sarah, and my fabulous children, Josh and Andy, give my life its most fulfilling purpose. They were able to both buoy my faith in myself when it flagged and cut me down to size when I was getting too big for my britches. Teenage children proved particularly useful for the latter.
Berkeley, California
July 2019