Introduction
1. “In all honesty”: Ben Cohen, “The Basketball Team That Never Takes a Bad Shot,” Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2017.
2. “That’s how you”: Ibid.
One: On Fire
1. “The only problem”: Greg Voss, “Sneaking Up on Success: An Interview with Mark Turmell,” Softline, November 1981.
2. “I kept plugging”: Unless otherwise noted, quotes are from author interviews. See the Author’s Note on Sources.
3. Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak’s company: Steve Wozniak, iWoz: Computer Geek to Cult Icon (New York: W. W. Norton, 2007).
4. his family’s stucco: David Fleming, “Stephen Curry: The Full Circle,” ESPN the Magazine, April 23, 2015.
5. “We thought the numbers”: Alex Abnos and Dan Greene, “Boomshakalaka: The Oral History of NBA Jam,” Sports Illustrated, July 6, 2017.
6. “If you want to exceed”: John Hollinger, PER Diem, ESPN, March 27, 2009.
7. “I love the three-point shot”: Pete Carril, The Smart Take from the Strong: The Basketball Philosophy of Pete Carril (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1997), 133.
8. “We refer to Bob”: Emmanuelle Ejercito, “Everybody Loves Bob,” Daily Bruin, February 27, 1997.
9. “Were you serious”: Tim Kawakami, “Bob Myers Interview: How the Warriors GM Was Hired [ . . . ],” Talking Points (blog), Mercury News, March 11, 2016.
10. “What’s really interesting”: Ben Cohen, “The Golden State Warriors Have Revolutionized Basketball,” Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2016.
11. “I didn’t even feel him”: Jim Johnson, “Pacers Beat Warriors After 4th-Quarter Scuffle,” Associated Press, February 26, 2013.
12. “The way a long-distance swimmer”: Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience (New York: Harper Perennial, 1991), 48.
13. Queensway Christian College: Lee Jenkins, “Stephen Curry’s Next Stage: MVP Has Warriors Closing in on the NBA Finals,” Sports Illustrated, May 20, 2015.
14. “There was nothing”: Frank Isola, “Stephen Curry Scores 54 Points at Garden [ . . . ],” New York Daily News, February 28, 2013.
15. “I’ve never been”: Scott Fowler, “Curry Hits Broadway with Rare Performance,” Charlotte Observer, March 1, 2013.
16. Curry will tell you about three: Kathleen Elkins, “NBA Star Stephen Curry Shares the 3 Moments When He Knew He’d ‘Made It,’” CNBC, September 7, 2016.
Two: The Law of the Hot Hand
1. “a concentrated efflorescence”: J. Leeds Barroll, Politics, Plague, and Shakespeare’s Theater: The Stuart Years (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991), 152.
2. “as a composer”: Herbert F. Peyser, “Gifted Artists Join in Unique Recital,” Musical America, 1918.
3. “I thought it’s idiotic”: Ellen D. Lerner, “Musicologist Ellen D. Lerner Interviews Rebecca Clarke, 1978 and 1979,” in A Rebecca Clarke Reader, ed. Liane Curtis (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004), 204.
4. “It had much more attention”: Robert Sherman, “Robert Sherman Interviews Rebecca Clarke About Herself,” in Curtis, Rebecca Clarke Reader, 172.
5. “one should not overlook”: Hiram Kelly Moderwell, “Makers of Music,” Vogue, April 15, 1918.
6. “You should have seen”: Rebecca Clarke, “Rebecca Clarke’s 1977 Program Note on the Viola Sonata,” in Curtis, Rebecca Clarke Reader, 226.
7. “I put my things away”: Lerner, “Musicologist,” 205.
8. “that one little whiff”: Sherman, “Interviews Rebecca Clarke,” 171.
9. “Why did you stop”: Ibid., 176.
10. “There was a lot”: Curtis, introduction, Rebecca Clarke Reader, 4n5.
11. “I didn’t”: Sherman, “Interviews Rebecca Clarke,” 176.
12. “Every now and then”: Curtis, introduction, Rebecca Clarke Reader, 1.
13. “There’s nothing in the”: Sherman, “Interviews Rebecca Clarke,” 176–77.
14. “Most people don’t”: Ibid., 77.
15. “Had she not been”: Peter G. Davis, “Rewarding Program Assembled by Toby Appel for Viola Recital,” New York Times, April 4, 1977.
16. “I did my own”: Sherman, “Interviews Rebecca Clarke,” 179.
17. “one of the funniest”: Roger Ebert, review of This Is Spinal Tap, Chicago Sun-Times, March 1, 1985.
18. “He is successful”: Ron Base, “Fathers of the Princess Bride,” Toronto Star, September 26, 1987.
19. “We love your films”: Susan King, “‘The Princess Bride’ Turns 30: Rob Reiner, Robin Wright, Billy Crystal Dish About Making the Cult Classic,” Variety, September 25, 2017.
20. “The Princess Bride is my favorite”: Drew McWeeny, “The M/C Interview: Rob Reiner Talks ‘Flipped,’ ‘Princess Bride,’ ‘Misery’ and More,” HitFix, August 4, 2010.
21. The data they collected: Lu Liu et al., “Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers,” Nature 559, no. 7714 (July 2018): 396–99.
22. “Plague was the single”: Jonathan Bate, Soul of the Age: A Biography of the Mind of William Shakespeare (New York: Random House, 2009), 4.
23. “This meant that his days”: James Shapiro, The Year of Lear: Shakespeare in 1606 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015), 29.
24. “We have no idea”: Ibid., 292.
Three: Shuffle
1. “The users were asking”: Lukáš Poláček, “How to Shuffle Songs?” Spotify Labs, February 28, 2014, labs.spotify.com/2014/02/28/how-to-shuffle-songs.
2. “It really is random”: Steve Jobs Keynote, World Wide Developers Conference 2005, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6iF6yTiNlw.
3. “Our brain”: Dave Lee, “How Random Is Random on Your Music Player?” BBC News, February 19, 2015.
4. “steeples of excellence”: C. Stewart Gillmor, Fred Terman at Stanford: Building a Discipline, a University, and Silicon Valley (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004).
5. “Those who have been”: See the section “Eulogy for Amos Tversky (June 5, 1996),” in Daniel Kahneman, “Biographical,” Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002, Nobel Prize, nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/kahneman/biographical.
6. The joke among them: David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits and the Art of Battling Giants by Malcolm Gladwell (Little, Brown, 2013).
7. “When the initial idea is good”: Afterword by Daniel Kahneman in The Essential Tversky, page 366.
8. “Sometimes they lead”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science 185, no. 4157 (Sept. 27, 1974): 1124.
9. “Consider a hypothetical scientist”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 106.
10. The most famous example: How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life by Thomas Gilovich (Free Press, 1991), 19.
11. “People see patterns”: Kevin McKean, “The Orderly Pursuit of Pure Disorder,” Discover, January 1987.
12. “Amos had simply”: Kahneman, “Biographical.”
13. “glitch in the system”: Andreas Wilke and H. Clark Barrett, “The Hot Hand Phenomenon as Cognitive Adaptation to Clumped Resources,” Evolution and Human Behavior 30, no. 3 (May 2009): 161–69.
14. The three monkeys sipped: Tommy C. Blanchard, Andreas Wilke, and Benjamin Y. Hayden “Hot-Hand Bias in Rhesus Monkeys,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Learning and Cognition 40, no. 3 (July 2014): 280–86.
15. “Very often the search”: James Gleick, “‘Hot Hands’ Phenomenon: A Myth?” New York Times, April 19, 1988.
16. “The present data”: Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17, no. 3 (July 1985): 313.
17. “Who is this guy?”: “High-Handed Professor’s Comments Called Hot Air,” USA Today, August 30, 1985.
18. “There are plenty”: Kevin McKean, “When You’re Hot, You’re Not,” Discover, June 1985.
19. Only a few months earlier: Sylvia Nasar, A Beautiful Mind: A Biography of John Forbes Nash Jr. (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998), 372–73.
20. “I’ve been in”: McKean, “Orderly Pursuit.”
Four: Bet the Farm
1. “You spend too much time”: James Naismith, Basketball: Its Origin and Development (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1996), 21.
2. “I thought there”: Ibid., 23.
3. “I made up my mind”: Ibid.
4. “Now would be a good time”: Ibid., 37.
5. “How I hated the thought”: Ibid., 42.
6. “I have two old peach baskets”: Ibid., 53.
7. “Why not call it basketball?”: Ibid., 60.
8. “For many years”: Eugene F. Fama, “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices,” Journal of Business 38, no. 1 (Jan. 1965): 34.
9. What’s wrong here?: David Booth speech and Q&A, VIP Distinguished Speaker Series, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas, Austin, February 26, 2013, youtu.be/cCp1m7rG0Q0.
10. “I realized they”: Ibid.
11. “One of the first things”: Ibid.
12. “a country bumpkin”: Molly Yeh, Molly on the Range: Recipes and Stories from an Unlikely Life on the Farm (New York: Rodale, 2016), 18.
13. “lunatic monster”: Ibid, 133.
14. When his first farm: R. I. Holcombe and William H. Bingham, eds., “Bernt Hagen,” Compendium of History and Biography of Polk County, Minnesota (Minneapolis, MN: W. H. Bingham, 1916), 312–13.
15. removed the sauna: Vanessa Sumo, “The Science,” Chicago GSB Magazine, Winter 2009: 18.
16. Rex Sinquefield was: Shawn Tully, “How the Really Smart Money Invests,” Fortune, July 6, 1998.
17. “I’d compare stock-pickers”: Ibid.
18. “The first time”: Booth speech and Q&A, VIP Distinguished Speaker Series.
19. “One orangutan”: Lydialyle Gibson, “Return on Principles,” University of Chicago Magazine, January–February 2009.
20. “Most MBAs think”: Ibid.
21. One paper looked at: Andrew Mauboussin and Samuel Arbesman, “Differentiating Skill and Luck in Financial Markets with Streaks,” SSRN (2011): dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1664031.
22. “Most professions have value”: Warren Buffett’s comments at the 2006 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting are found in CNBC’s Warren Buffett Archive, buffett.cnbc.com/video/2006/05/06/morning-session---2006-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting.html.
23. “What followed was the sound”: Warren Buffett wrote about the bet in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2016 annual report, 22 (available at berkshirehathaway.com/2016ar/2016ar.pdf).
24. “I’ve often been asked”: Ibid., 24–25.
25. “Ignore the chatter”: Warren Buffet, “To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:” https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf.
26. “We would only be”: David Booth interview by James K. Glassman, George W. Bush Presidential Center, September 18, 2012, bushcenter.imgix.net/legacy/Tax_Competition_and_4percent_Growth_09-18-12_Chicago_0.pdf.
27. He works from: Edward Lewine, “There’s a Method to My Desk’s Madness,” New York Times, May 18, 2013.
28. “largely unknown”: Robert A. Guth, “Chicago Business School Gets Huge Gift,” Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2008.
29. “the most significant”: The descriptions of the auction lots are taken from Sotheby’s catalog.
30. Redden was used: James Barron, “He’s Auctioned the 1776 Declaration, Twice,” New York Times, July 4, 2000.
31. “I don’t think”: Christopher Michaud, “Magna Carta Fetches $21.3 Million at Sotheby’s Auction,” Reuters, December 18, 2007.
32. “I buy everything”: Julie Segal, “David Rubenstein’s Monopoly Money,” Institutional Investor, May 4, 2017.
33. “The third and final sale”: There’s No Place Like Home, dirs. Maura Mandt and Josh Swade, 30 for 30, ESPN Films, 2012.
Five: Wheel of Fortune
1. chiseling stone: Gabriel Gatehouse, “Baghdad Diary: Saddam’s Sculptor Makes Comeback,” BBC News, June 16, 2010.
2. “They called me an infidel”: Ibid.
3. Mejdal studied aeronautical: Sig Mejdal was a character in Sam Walker’s Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball’s Lunatic Fringe (New York: Viking, 2006), and the story of his scouting trip to see Jed Lowrie was informed by Ben Reiter’s Astroball: The New Way to Win It All (New York: Crown, 2018).
4. He made some extra cash: Bill Miller has been profiled a few times and repeated the same details of his life story. Among the sources I used were Scott Fields, “The Boy of Summer,” UCLA Magazine, October 1, 2010, and Bruce Weber, As They See ’Em: A Fan’s Travels in the Land of Umpires (New York: Scribner, 2009).
5. he especially loved: Miller has given long interviews to Off the Lip Radio Show in his native Santa Cruz, available at offthelipradio.com/live-stream.
6. He was a friend: Jeff Sullivan, “Incredulous Responses to Bill Miller’s Strike Zone,” FanGraphs, October 30, 2017, blogs.fangraphs.com/incredulous-responses-to-bill-millers-strike-zone.
7. “High pitches, low pitches”: Michael Lopez and Sadie Lewis, “An Exploration of MLB Umpires’ Strike Zones,” Hardball Times, May 4, 2018, tht.fangraphs.com/an-exploration-of-mlb-umpires-strike-zones.
8. It should have been: PITCHf/x data for every pitch of every game is available on the website Brooks Baseball (brooksbaseball.net).
9. They manage to nail: Daniel Chen, Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Kelly Shue, “Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, no. 3 (Aug. 2016): 1181–242.
10. When they set about: Rachel Croson and James Sundali, “The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 30, no. 3 (2005): 195–209.
11. “They place significantly”: Ibid., 205.
12. In one chapter: Pierre-Simon Laplace, Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, trans. Andrew I. Dale (1814; New York: Springer, 1995).
13. Peter Ayton and Ilan Fischer: Peter Ayton and Ilan Fischer, “The Hot Hand Fallacy and the Gambler’s Fallacy: Two Faces of Subjective Randomness?” Memory & Cognition 32, no. 8 (Dec. 2004): 1369–78.
14. “Any belief”: Peter Ayton, “Fallacy Football,” New Scientist, September 19, 1998.
15. “People seem to believe”: Ayton and Fischer, “Hot Hand Fallacy,” 1370.
16. It was the most comprehensive: Jaya Ramji-Nogales, Andrew I. Schoenholtz, and Philip G. Schrag, “Refugee Roulette: Disparities in Asylum Adjudication,” Stanford Law Review 60, no. 2 (Nov. 2007): 295–411.
17. “Whether the asylum applicant”: Ibid., 378.
18. “There is remarkable”: Ibid., 302.
19. The real number: Sisi Wei and Nick Fortugno, “The Waiting Game,” ProPublica and WNYC, April 23, 2018.
20. There were 320,663 people: These figures were taken from July 2018 data published by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Six: The Fog
1. “To a traveler”: Albin E. Johnson, “What I Saw in Sweden,” Rotarian, September 1944.
2. “That,” he said: Ray Furlong, “Wallenberg family mark centenary with plea for truth,” BBC News, August 8, 2012, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-19101339.
3. “I will be happy”: Ingrid Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg: The Biography, trans. Ebba Segerberg (London: MacLehose Press, 2015), 44.
4. “The conviction here”: Raoul Wallenberg, Letters and Dispatches, 1924–1944, trans. Kjersti Board (New York: Arcade, 2011), 111.
5. “Hitchhiking gives you”: Ibid., 69.
6. “sit around saying”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 110.
7. “We should find a person”: Ibid., 203.
8. “Every day costs”: John Bierman, Righteous Gentile: The Story of Raoul Wallenberg, Missing Hero of the Holocaust (Toronto: Bantam Books, 1983), 36.
9. “I think I’ve got”: Per Anger oral history interview by Joan Ringelheim, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum Collection, January 19, 1995, collections.ushmm.org/search/catalog/irn504796.
10. And then so many: Bierman, Righteous Gentile.
11. “Not even the name”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 280.
12. “If anyone is capable”: Ibid., 365.
13. He packed twenty thousand: Per Anger oral history interview.
14. He was so tireless: Kati Marton, Wallenberg: Missing Hero (New York: Arcade, 1982).
15. He hurled china: Ibid.
16. “have that Jew-dog Wallenberg shot”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 386.
17. “I admit that”: Bierman, Righteous Gentile, 100.
18. “Of course it gets”: Per Anger oral history interview.
19. “I do not know”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 439.
20. “Dear Mrs. Roosevelt”: Maj von Dardel letter to Eleanor Roosevelt, November 30, 1946, Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum, fdrlibrary.marist.edu/_resources/images/ergen/ergen1367.pdf.
21. “Not knowing is the worst”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 634.
22. Makinen was on the path: Stu Borman, “A Chemistry Spy Story,” Chemical & Engineering News, February 18, 2013.
23. As he flipped: Elenore Lester and Frederick E. Werbell, “The Lost Hero of the Holocaust: The Search for Sweden’s Raoul Wallenberg,” New York Times Magazine, March 30, 1980.
24. “One can’t accept”: Carlberg, Raoul Wallenberg, 630.
25. “To hinder the investigation”: Marvin W. Makinen and Ari D. Kaplan, Cell Occupancy Analysis of Korpus 2 of the Vladimir Prison, Swedish-Russian Working Group on the Fate of Raoul Wallenberg, December 15, 2000, raoul-wallenberg.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/makinen_kaplan_report_pp01-16.pdf.
26. He struck out: Scott Harris, “Caltech Student Has the Stats to Make It to the Major Leagues,” Los Angeles Times, June 6, 1990.
27. Back then he was: Michael Lewis, “The King of Human Error,” Vanity Fair, December 2011.
28. “Our ability to”: Ibid.
29. “He complained”: Marvin W. Makinen and Ari D. Kaplan, Cell Occupancy Analysis of Korpus 2 of the Vladimir Prison, Swedish-Russian Working Group on the Fate of Raoul Wallenberg, December 15, 2000, raoul-wallenberg.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/makinen_kaplan_report_pp01-16.pdf.
30. “We called him that”: Josyp Terelya, Josyp Terelya: Witness to Apparitions and Persecution in the USSR (Milford, OH: Faith Publications, 1991), 132.
31. “strange game”: Allan Shen, “Renowned Mathematician and Professor Elias Stein Passes Away at 87,” Daily Princetonian, February 5, 2019.
32. “How about”: Ben Cohen, “Moneyball 2.0: Students in Harvard Club Prep to Be GMs,” ThePostGame, February 24, 2011, thepostgame.com/features/201102/moneyball-20-students-harvard-club-prep-be-sports-gms.
33. “The sort of people”: Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003), 130.
34. “The more basketball”: Amos Tversky and Thomas Gilovich, “The Cold Facts About the ‘Hot Hand’ in Basketball,” Chance 2, no. 1 (1989): 21.
35. It was from Mark Cuban: “The Most Unlikely College Basketball Result of 2010,” Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, August 6, 2010, harvardsportsanalysis.org/2010/08/the-most-unlikely-college-basketball-result-of-2010.
36. “Hope exams are”: John Ezekowitz email to Carolyn Stein, December 20, 2012.
37. “The key is reading data”: Adam Davidson, “Boom, Bust or What?” New York Times Magazine, May 2, 2013.
38. “Each player has”: Gilovich et al.: “The Hot Hand in Basketball.”
39. “All I could see”: Kirk Goldsberry, “DataBall,” Grantland, February 6, 2014, grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics.
40. “If this was”: Bill James, “Underestimating the Fog,” Baseball Research Journal 33 (2004): 29.
41. “No one has made”: Ibid., 33.
42. “Let’s look again”: Ibid.
43. It amounted to: Andrew Bocskocsky, John Ezekowitz, and Carolyn Stein, “Heat Check: New Evidence on the Hot Hand in Basketball,” SSRN (2014): dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2481494.
44. “At the very least”: Ibid.
45. “It’s an impressive piece”: Larry Summers email to Carolyn Stein, February 27, 2014.
Seven: The Van Gogh in the Attic
1. Mustad was the scion: The bulk of the biographical information about Mustad comes from Louis van Tilborgh, Teio Meedendorp, and Oda van Maanen, “‘Sunset at Montmajour’: A Newly Discovered Painting by Vincent van Gogh,” Burlington Magazine, 155, no. 1327 (Oct. 2013): 696–705.
2. Pellerin’s impressive art collection: Alex Danchev, Cézanne: A Life (New York: Pantheon Books, 2012).
3. managed to track down: Richard J. Jagacinski, Karl M. Newell, and Paul D. Isaac, “Predicting the Success of a Basketball Shot at Various Stages of Execution,” Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology 1, no. 4 (1979): 301–10.
4. They worked on: Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, “Is It a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?” IGIER Working Paper No. 548, SSRN (2015): dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611987.
5. “The zenith”: Ronald Pickvance, Van Gogh in Arles (New York: Metropolitan Museum of Art, 1984), 11.
6. “I’ve seen lots”: Vincent van Gogh letter to Theo van Gogh, March 9, 1888.
7. “I was on a stony heath”: Vincent van Gogh letter to Theo van Gogh, July 5, 1888.
8. “Among them are many with”: Vincent van Gogh letter to Theo van Gogh, August 13, 1888.
9. the proportion of heads: Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, “Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers,” Econometrica 86, no. 6 (Nov. 2018): 2019–47.
10. “It may be that”: Gleick, “‘Hot Hands’ Phenomenon.”
11. “They’ve found something”: Jordan Ellenberg, “‘Hot Hands’ in Basketball Are Real” Slate, October 26, 2015.
12. Don Johnson wasn’t: Mary Dahdouh, “He Wed Science with Art, Solving Mystery of ‘Sunset at Montmajour,’” Houston Chronicle, September 23, 2013.
13. Johnson’s work was: Louis van Tilborgh et al., “Weave Matching and Dating of Van Gogh’s Painting: An Interdisciplinary Approach,” Burlington Magazine, February 2012.
14. The first thing: Teio Meedendorp explained their process of authentication in a TEDx Talk called “Discovering Vincent van Gogh’s Sunset at Montmajour” at the University of St. Andrews, available at youtu.be/SyzdA_dQjD0.
15. They were able to confirm: “How Do You Spot a Real Van Gogh?” Economist, September 24, 2013.
16. “It is still incomprehensible”: Van Tilborgh, Meedendorp, and Van Maanen, “‘Sunset at Montmajour.’”
17. “New discovery Van Gogh”: Frederique Haanen email to Don Johnson, September 9, 2013.
18. In a blog post: Andrew Gelman, “Hey—Guess What? There Really Is a Hot Hand!” Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, July 9, 2015, statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand.
19. “raised a valid”: Yosef Rinott and Maya Bar-Hillel, “Comments on a ‘Hot Hand’ Paper by Miller and Sanjurjo (2015).” SSRN (2015): dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2642450.