Index

• Aircraft, 204, 207–209, 211, 222, 234, 237–239, 252
  • A-6, compared to Silkworm missile, 38–41
  • A-10, 211
  • aircrew, 222, 237–239
  • airliners, 52–54, 80–91, 233
  • AWACS, 1, 215
  • B-1, 201, 207–209
  • B-52, 208
  • Blackhawk helicopter, 1
  • C-5A, 201, 209
  • F-4, 79–80
  • phantom airplane in highway metaphor, 204
  • Silkworm missile, 37–41
• Airport baggage screeners, 44
• Analogues, 201–218, 261, 308n
  • analogical reasoning, 205–213
  • analogy, 205, 208, 210
  • applications, 215–217
  • comparability analysis, 207, 211, 215
• Analytical methods, 36, 206. See also Decision making; Rational choice model; and Recognition-primed decision (RPD) model
• Anesthesiologist, 224
• Anomalies, 37, 41, 154–155, 269, 298n. See also Expertise, characteristics of
• Antecedent conditions, 36, 309n
• Anti-air warfare, 37–41, 79–91
  • AWACS weapons director, 112–113
• Antigoals, 229, 231–233, 236
  • meaningful alternatives, 231, 308n
• Apollo 13, 138–144
• Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences. See US Army
• Army War College. See US Army
• Artificial intelligence, 134–137, 288
• Astronauts. See Apollo 13
• AT&T, 175–176, 192, 198
• Attention, 277–278
• Attorneys, 94, 188
• Aviation, 37, 38, 159. See also Aircraft
  • Federal Aviation Administration, 44
  • flying behind the plane, 159

• Baggage screens. See Airport baggage screeners
• Beach, L. R., 36
• Bicycling, 173
• Bidder’s Associate, 216–217
• Big picture, 139, 152, 156, 162, 226, 230. See also Situation awareness
• Bloch, A., 58–60
• Brezovic, C., 102–103, 209

• Calderwood, R., 101
• Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), 45–46, 154
  • instructors, 154
• Case-based reasoning, 216–217, 307n. See also Analogues
• Causal factors, 208–214
• Charness, N., 304n
• Cherniak, C., 266–267
• Chess, 96, 100, 118, 120–121, 160, 165–172, 277, 299n
  • test of recognition-primed decision (RPD) model, 165
  • time pressure, 165–172
  • United States Chess Federation ratings, 165
• Choke points, 121, 128
• Churchill, W., 221, 230, 265
• Cognitive modeling, 176, 306n
• Cognitive Task Analysis, 38, 173–176, 198
• Cohen, M., 72–74
• Colle, H., 308n
• Collective consciousness, 238, 253, 260, 308n
• Commanders. See Fireground commanders; Military, commanders
• Commander’s intent, 227–233, 307n
• Comparability analysis. See Analogues, comparability analysis
• Comparison of experiential sources of power with analytical sources of power, 261–271, 308n
• Computer
  • metaphor for thinking, 288–289
  • reasoning systems, 215
• Computer scientists, 216
• Confirmation bias, 274–275, 299n
• Consistency, 266–271
• Consumers, 178
• Cooking, 163–164
• Cost-benefit analyses, 263
• Counterfactual thinking, 158
• Courses of action (COA), 14, 17, 21, 24, 26, 66, 96, 100, 115, 118, 125–132, 134, 137, 138, 141–145, 194, 276
• Cowperthwaite, J., 212
• Crandall, B., 41–42, 45, 55–56, 101, 177, 193
• Creativity methods, 147
• Crisis management teams, 242–244, 246–248, 250
• Crisis managers. See Managers, crisis
• Critical decision method, 193
• Critical decision point, 233
• Critical thinking, 261
• Cryptarithmetic, 135
• Cues, 33, 38, 42-43, 45, 154–156, 160, 169, 173, 214, 248, 255
  • critical, 45–46, 158, 248
  • negative, 155, 304n
  • perceptual, 45–46

• Decenter, 160
• Decision(s)
  • cycle, 158
  • games, 109–110
  • matrix, 13
  • points, 3, 14, 16–18, 26, 101-102, 103–104, 166
  • poor, 273–285
  • requirements, 109–111, 176
  • support systems, 7, 234–235
  • training programs, 274
  • trees, 263
• Decision makers, 95–96, 276–278
  • skilled, 33, 42–43, 165–166, 168, 172–173, 281–282, 289, 303–304n
• Decision making, 16–17, 19–20, 133, 137, 142–143, 144–146, 150, 165, 177–178, 237–260, 297n–298n. See also Problem solving; Teams, advanced team decision making model; Team mind
  • analytical versus naturalistic, 273, 299n
  • biases, 273–275
  • contingency model, 36
  • heuristics, 273–275
  • improvisational, 166
  • skills, 106–111
  • training (see Training)
  • zone of indifference, 107
• Decision-making strategies, 24–25, 27, 162–163, 177–178
  • boundary conditions, 99–100
  • comparative evaluation, 12, 16–18, 20, 24, 26 (see also Courses of action; Rational choice model)
  • deliberative, 22–23
  • elimination by aspects, 98–99
  • face-off, 98–99
  • optimizing, 20
  • recognitional, 17–18, 24
  • satisficing, 20
  • singular evaluation, 96, 99–100, 101 (see also Recognition-primed decision (RPD) model)
  • two-option, 16–17, 27
• Defense Research Agency, 38
• de Groot, A. D., 96, 100, 299n
• Delusions, 256–257. See also Team mind, chaotic nature
• Demand feature of experiment, 28
• Dent-Read, C. H., 203
• Department of Defense, 257
• Desert Storm, Operation, 215, 229
• Designer, 160, 215, 235
  • computer, 268–269
  • engineers, 111, 157
  • equipment, 203
  • industrial, 157
  • interface, 203–204
  • system, 177, 214
• Di Bello, L., 284
• Doyle, A. C., 155
• Dreyfus, H., 172–173, 309n
• Dreyfus, S., 172–173
• Driving, 159, 163
• Duncker, K., 125–126
• Dupuy, T., 228

• Eggleston, R., 203
• Electronic warfare technician, 105, 157
• Emergency rescue team, 51
• Endsley, M., 304n
• Engineers, 119, 206–209, 211, 213–214, 217. See also Designer, engineers
  • Boeing, 119
  • highway, 299n
• Ericsson, K. A., 304n
• Errors, 221, 226, 252–253
  • traced to inconsistencies, 266–271
• Event. See also Cues, negative
  • absence of, 155, 165
  • anticipation of, 201
  • not typical, 34
• Expectancies, 37, 155–156, 159
  • generating, 213, 217
• Expectancy bias, 88–89, 91
• Experience, 33, 35–36, 42–43, 44, 99–100, 107, 110, 128–129, 151–155, 160–165, 166–167, 172, 174, 177, 201, 209, 214, 223, 225–226, 233, 240–242, 246, 248–249, 257–258, 262, 264, 269, 276, 281–284, 289, 298–299n, 303–304n
• Expertise, 13, 41, 42, 44, 56, 108–109, 120, 151–179, 183, 187, 193, 195, 236, 281–284, 288–289, 303–304n
  • characteristics of, 152–153, 174–175
• Expert-novice differences, 21, 101–102, 121, 149, 151–153, 160, 193–194, 214
• Experts, 23, 58, 107, 151–179, 284, 303–304n
  • experimental models, 156
• Extrasensory perception (ESP), 33, 35, 37, 39, 46

• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), 44. See also Aviation
• Firefighters, 1, 2, 7, 9, 13, 15, 21, 23, 33, 35, 37, 41, 177, 249, 298n
• Fireground commanders, 8, 9, 11, 14, 16–18, 20–23, 27–28, 33–35, 37, 45–47, 49, 56, 96, 101–102, 132, 154, 165, 193, 213, 240–242, 247, 249–250, 276–277
• Fischer, B., 165
• Flight crew, 223, 237–239, 276
• Flin, R., 104
• Ford, H., 119
• Free association, 254
• Friedman, D., 212

• Galton, Sir Francis, 69
• Gestalt, 125, 181, 186
• Goals, 202, 218, 227, 231–233, 235–236, 246–248, 252, 255
  • shifting, 15–16
• Great Depression, 282
• Grudin, J., 268

• Hammond, K., 97–98
• Harman, G., 266–267
• Harrington, D., 258–259
• Hastie, R., 94, 188
• Henderson, S., 104–105
• Heuristics, 135–137, 273–275
• Hindsight, 34, 225
• Hirt, E., 71
• Holmes, S., 155
• Hyperrationality, 261–271, 308n–309n
  • paralysis by analysis, 261

• Identify Friend or Foe (IFF), 39
• Improvisation, 152, 157–158, 160, 166, 226–228, 232, 236
• Inconsistencies. See Errors, traced to inconsistencies
• Individual mind versus team mind, 237–257
• Industrial College of the Armed Forces, 258
• Inference, 227, 299n, 304n. See also Situation awareness
  • associative, 299n
  • deductive, 299n
• Information overload, 156
• Intensive care unit, 1. See also Neonatal intensive care unit
• Intent, communication of, 219–236, 247, 257, 265, 307n
• Interviews, 203, 259, 292–293. See also Knowledge elicitation
  • methods, 13, 14, 15–16, 192–198
• Intuition, 3, 33–47, 153–154, 262, 299n, 309n
  • as inborn trait, 35
  • model of, 36

• Jacobs, E., 159–160
• Janis, I., 28–29
• Jaques, T., 159–160
• Jobs, S., 201
• Johnson, M., 202
• Judgments, 227, 265, 268
• Jurors, 94, 188

• Kaempf, G., 224, 229–230
• Kahneman, D., 55, 273–274
• Kasparov, G., 120–121, 165
• Kennedy, J., 189–191
• Klein, H., 154
• Klinger, D., 258–259
• Kluger, J., 138, 144
• Knowledge, 173–176, 262–263, 306n
• Knowledge elicitation methods, 172–173, 175, 197
  • interviews, 16, 153, 174–176, 178 (see also Interviews)

• Laboratory studies, contrasted to naturalistic studies, 178, 265, 271, 299n
  • naïve subjects, 299n
• Lakoff, G., 202
• Latent pathogens, 275
• Law, B., 224–225
• Lawmakers, 282
• Lenat, D., 297n
• Lesgold, A., 161
• Leverage points, 115–123, 125–130, 141, 145, 147, 156–157
• Los Angeles County Fire Department, 177
• Lovell, J., 138, 144

• Macintosh computer, 201–202
• Managers
  • crisis, 242–243, 246, 250
  • line, 160
  • office, 153
  • oil platforms, 104
  • senior, 160
• Mann, L., 28–29
• Market research, 178
• McKenzie, C., 299n
• Means-end analysis. See Problem solving, means-end analysis
• Memory, 12, 35–36, 43, 61, 299n
  • corporate, 176
  • explicit and implicit, 299n
  • limitations, 162–163
  • long-term, 162, 239, 260
  • working, 56, 162, 187, 239, 260, 277–278
• Memory compartmentalization, 267–268, 270
• Mental models, 156–157, 264, 305n
  • of equipment, 157
  • of team coordination, 157
• Mental simulation, 3, 21, 40, 49–77, 86, 88, 91, 93–97, 99, 118, 126–128, 142–143, 146, 153, 159–160, 187, 191–192, 220, 262, 271, 276, 278, 285, 291–292
  • action sequence, 50, 61–68, 117
  • constraints, 56
  • crystal ball, 73, 284
  • de minimus, 69, 71, 88, 276, 284
  • explanation of, 61–68
  • failure of, 68–69
  • overconfidence, 71
  • premortem, 74–75
  • projection, 66–68
  • snap-back, 72–73
  • storybuilding, 94
• Metacognition, 153, 162–163, 172, 248–249, 251, 305n
  • big picture, 162–163
  • memory limitations, 162
  • self-critiques, 162
  • strategy selection, 162
• Metaphors, 3, 201–218, 237, 240, 244, 256, 307n
• Military
  • commanders, 8, 120, 221, 227, 299n
  • experience, 105
  • instructors, 161
  • leaders, 1
  • M-1 tanks, 1
  • National Training Center, 228–229
  • solder, 161
  • tank platoon leaders, 33, 44, 101–102, 160, 209
  • trainees, 160–161
• Militello, L., 147, 177
• Mind reading, 219–236
• Mitchell, T., 36
• Mosier, K., 104
• Myocardial infarction, 45–46

• NASA, 222–223, 238, 308n
  • Boeing 727 full-flight simulator, 222
  • flight crews, 222–223
  • team coordination, 222
• National Defense University, 258
• National Fire Academy, 46
• National Institute of Health, 42
• Naturalistic decision making, 1, 4–7, 106, 146, 150, 162–163, 166–167, 273, 275, 277, 287, 293–294, 307n
• Natural setting, 165, 172–173, 209–210, 232
• Navy. See US Navy
• Neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), 42–43, 45, 176, 193, 198, 276
• Newell, A., 135
• Nonanalytical methods. See Recognition-primed decision (RPD) model
• Noticing, 221–222
• Novice, 24, 29, 45, 151–179, 214
• Nuclear power plants, 258–259, 263
  • Duke Power Company, 258–259
  • Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), 258–260, 308–309n
  • operators, 1
  • organization redesign, 259–260
  • simulations, 308–309n
• Nurses, 1, 33, 41–43, 45–46, 176–177, 276–277

• On-the-Job Training, 177, 242
• Opportunities
  • identify, 152, 157–158 (see also Experts)
• Option generation, 166–168, 171–172. See also Problem solving, option generation
• Orasanu, J., 308n

• Paramedic, 45–46, 154
• Pascual, R., 104–105
• Pattern recognition, 33–35, 41–43, 45, 152–156, 158, 160, 172–173, 262, 291–292. See also Typicality
• Pearl Harbor, 201
• Pennington, N., 94, 188
• Perceptual
  • discrimination, 153, 161
  • experience, 165, 177
  • learning, 153
  • skills, 177, 289
  • training, 177
• Performance, 156, 162–163, 165, 175–176, 248–249, 252, 299n, 309n
  • of teams, 226, 248–249, 252
• Petroleum, 174–175
  • metaphor for knowledge, 174–175
• Physicians, 46, 161
• Pilots, 1, 37–41, 122, 127, 187, 203–204, 234, 238–239, 277. See also Aircraft
• Planning, 146–150, 201, 226–228, 229–231, 248–249
• Polgar, J., 165
• Polish economy, 58–61, 76
• Preconscious, 238–239, 260
• Prediction, 158, 201, 205–207, 211, 213, 215, 217
• Problem representation, 126–128, 138–142, 144
  • goal setting, 302n
• Problems, 205, 226–227, 263–265
  • detection, 126–128, 129, 138–142, 144, 225
  • ill-defined, 205
• Problem solving, 125–150, 156, 171, 193, 201, 205, 213–214, 218
  • artificial intelligence model, 134–137
  • diagnosis, 128, 140, 142, 144, 146
  • evaluation, 126–129
  • forecasting, 126–128, 142, 144
  • means-end analysis, 136–137, 139, 141, 303n
  • option generation, 126–127, 138–139, 144
  • stage models, 131–134
• Programmers, 176
• Pugh, H., 105

• Radiologists, 161
• Randel, J., 105
• Rational analysis, 261–271, 308n
  • error-free decision making, 263
  • limitations and boundary conditions, 263, 308n
  • rational inference, 265–266
• Rational choice model, 10, 98, 100, 146, 278, 288. See also Recognition-primed decision model (RPD), contrasted with rational choice model
• Rational thinking, 261–271, 308n
• Rational versus reasonable, 308n
• Reason, J., 275
• Reber, A., 309n
• Recognition-primed decision model (RPD), 8, 15–31, 35–36, 46–47, 93, 96–97, 99–108, 155–156, 158, 165, 167–168, 171, 278–281, 293, 300n, 305n
  • compared to choosing among alternative courses of action, 17, 20–21, 24, 26–27, 93, 95, 96, 101, 142–143
  • contrasted with rational choice, 28–29, 98–106
  • design features, 8–9
  • design systems, 106
  • diagnosing, 26, 93–96
  • generation of expectancies, 24–26, 93, 95–96
  • learning of, 108–109
  • prototypicality, 17, 156 (see also Situation awareness)
  • recognition of cues, 24–26
  • recognition of goals, 24–26, 154, 156–157
  • typicality, 24, 26, 30, 153, 155, 282 (see also Situation awareness)
  • variations described, 24–27
• Reed, S., 105
• Reising, J., 203–204
• Rhodopsin. See Expert-novice differences
• Rock climbing, 123, 125, 127–129
• Roediger, H. L., III, 299n
• Rogers, Captain, 79–80, 85–87, 90–91, 94
• Roosevelt, F. D., 282
• Rowing, 256
• Royal Dutch/Shell, 75, 119
• Rules, 165, 172

• Satisficing, 20
• Schmitt, Major John, 305n
• Schwartz, H., 230–232
• Schwartz, P., 119
• Secretaries, 153
• Sepsis, 193, 198
  • detection of, 42–43, 176
• Shanteau, J., 283–284, 299n
• Shattuck, L., 227, 235
• Sherman, S., 71
• Sides, USS, 84, 87–88, 90
• Simon, H., 20, 134–135
• Simulation, 45, 220
  • high-fidelity simulator, 223
• Situation awareness, 35, 93, 139, 152, 154, 156, 159–160, 162, 194, 203, 218, 248–249, 252, 284–285, 304n
• Slaven, G., 104
• Sloman, S., 299n
• Slovic, P., 273
• Soccer, 157
• Soelberg, P., 10–13, 28
• Software
  • developers, 57, 174
  • engineers, 174, 195
  • programmers, 192
• Solomon, A., 197–198
• Sternberg, R., 205
• Stewart, K., 104
• Stories, 3, 181–200
• Story building, 189–191. See also Mental simulation
• Stress, 277–278
• Subject matter experts, 288. See also Experts
• Superstitions, 283
• Surgeon, 224
• System designers. See Designer, system
• Systems
  • case-based reasoning, 216–217
  • computer reasoning, 215
  • rule-based expert, 216

• Tasks
  • decomposition, 156
  • procedural, 172
  • simulated, 175
• Teachers
  • English, 132
  • kindergarten, 159
• Team mind, 237–260, 308n. See also Teams
  • “accidental” manner, 253, 256–257, 260
  • chaotic nature, 253–256
  • learning, 249–250, 260
  • limited attention, 239–240, 260
  • long-term memory, 239, 260
  • metaphor for thinking, 256
  • perceptual filters, 240, 260
  • working memory, 239, 260
• Teams, 74, 156, 226–227, 229, 233, 235–260, 308n. See also Team mind
  • advanced team decision making model, 244–253, 258, 308n
  • experienced versus inexperienced, 246
  • features similar to child development, 244–249, 255
  • mental processes, 237–238, 259
  • self-management, 245
  • training, 257
• Teamwork, 15, 148
• Tetmeyer, D., 207
• Thinking, 202–203, 231, 247–248, 256, 262. See also Rational thinking
  • explicit, 264
• Thordsen, M., 101–103, 209, 222, 225, 230, 240, 244, 253
• Time horizon, 148, 159–160, 244, 247, 252
• Time pressure, 29–31, 79, 82, 99–100, 102–103, 111, 149, 165–168, 172, 184, 277, 285
• Traditional Decision Research, 172–174. See also Rational choice model
• Training, 45–47, 106–109, 111, 204, 214, 228–229, 231, 235, 241–242, 257
  • to achieve expertise, 174–177
  • to generate options, 172–173
  • of RPD, 30
• Tricks of the trade, 157, 160, 165
• Truck levitation, 50, 66, 68
• Tversky, A., 55, 273–274
• Two-option hypothesis, 9–10, 12
• Tynan, K., 262
• Typicality, 45
  • prototype, 41
• Tyson, M., 188–189

• Uncertainty, 228, 247–248, 252, 278–281
  • types of, 279
• Uncle Remus Stories, 203
• US Air Force, 206–207
  • Armstrong Laboratory, 307n
  • Flight Dynamics Laboratory, 203
  • Materials Laboratory, 216
  • Office of Scientific Research, 165, 307n
  • Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, 206, 207
• US Army
  • Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 7, 55, 101, 165, 224, 258, 305n–308n
  • Army War College, 235, 257–258
• US Forest Service, 43, 102, 240
• US Marine Corps, 47, 148, 173
  • Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 47
  • squad leaders, 173, 235
• US Navy, 79–91, 99
  • AEGIS Cruisers, 75, 103
  • Office of Naval Research, 75, 103, 147
  • officers, 33, 37, 38, 41

• Vincennes, USS, 79–82, 84–91, 103, 111, 252–253
• Vision, diseases as a metaphor for rational choice method, 261–263

• Wack, P., 75
• Weather forecaster, 158
• Weick, K., 232–234
• Weitzenfeld, J., 206–207, 209–210
• Wine tasters, 161
• Wozniak, S., 201

• X-rays, 125, 161

• Zsambok, C., 168, 177, 258