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Day 71/2546
Drake let himself fall into the chair in the tiny cubicle that was assigned to him while he was part of the planning group. He was tired after another brainstorming session with ideas that were getting more and more bizarre as time went on. So far, all of the ideas examined by the Super-Oracle had resulted in FED counter-moves that were nothing short of disastrous. He closed his eyes and leaned back so that his head was touching the wall behind him. After a few seconds he heard a knock on the open door. When he opened his eyes, he saw Major Foster standing in the doorway with a sympathetic look on her face.
“I know exactly how you feel, Commander. The group seems to be spinning its wheels without moving forward.”
“I can’t help thinking that we’re missing something. What are we missing?” asked Drake.
Foster shook her head and shrugged. “Beats the hell outta me. There are only so many planets that our ships could attack or defend. It feels like we’ve examined all those possibilities. So far, the roll-the-dice attack on Earth is still the least bad option on the table.”
“Yes, and I meant to ask you about that one-chance-in-four result. Who did P2 assume would be in command of our fleet?”
Foster thought for a moment and said, “No one in particular. It assumed an average tactical capability because we don’t have enough data on each potential leader’s tactical skill level to be able to make a reliable choice.”
Drake smiled. “Then we need to find out by running a series of simulations in which every flag officer and ship CO will be evaluated. With a little luck, at least one officer will stand out from the rest. That’s got to improve our chances.” He noticed that Foster’s eyes widened.
“Yes, of course. This is exactly why we needed navy people in the group. We Army types just don’t think in terms of naval tactical skill. It’s almost a foreign concept to us. I’ll recommend the simulation project to the CSO immediately.” Before Drake could say anything, Foster had turned around and left.
It took three days to set up the simulations. The equipment was borrowed from the Naval Officers School, and only one officer could be tested at a time. The Super-Oracle commanded the FED ships. Luckily, all Union warships were still in orbit around or on Sparta, so all commanding officers were tested over the following five days. Of the twenty-five officers of at least Commander rank, Drake’s performance put him fourth in terms of ranking. His only consolation was that he beat Vice-Admiral Lee, who came in 10th. As Drake looked at the results on the main display in the simulation room, he sensed Foster come up to stand beside him.
“P2 reran its calculations assuming that our number one ranked officer commanded our side, and the odds only improved slightly, from 1 in 4 to 1 in 3.5.”
She heard Drake sigh. “I could have told you that ahead of time, Cate, because nobody actually won the simulated battle. P2 came out ahead every single time.” After a pause he said, “I wonder...”
Foster shook her head in annoyance. She hated it when people started but didn’t finish a sentence. “You wonder what?”
Drake shrugged. “I was just wondering if the defense is so effective because P2 is commanding that side of things. In a real battle, a fallible human being will be commanding the FED fleet. Maybe we should run the simulations again the other way around, with humans defending Earth against a fleet commanded by P2.”
“It can’t hurt to try, but there’s no sense in testing everyone. Let’s just test the top six officers.”
Twenty-four hours later they stopped the simulations after testing only the top three. The computer beat all three. Even Foster was shocked.
“It’s too bad we couldn’t put P2 in command of our fleet,” she said to Drake who was sitting nearby.
“Who says we can’t? How much space does that beast take up?”
Forster checked and shook her head. “None of our ships are anywhere close to being big enough to house a Phase II Oracle.”
“Okay, what if we go back to the Phase I version?” asked Drake.
Foster crunched some more numbers. “Well, available space is still running short, but not by much. If we stripped a ship of all equipment that wasn’t essential to maneuvering, hyper-jumping and combat, there theoretically might be enough room, but we’d literally have a ship where a mouse couldn’t move around inside. I don’t see that being realistically workable.”
“What if we take out all missile tubes and missile storage?”
After crunching some more numbers, Foster said, “That’s beginning to look more doable, but it would mean the fleet as a whole would be weaker, and our side didn’t win by a wide margin in those last three simulations.”
Drake thought about that for a bit and said, “Can we shut down those components that were added in Phase II and test the remaining machine in command of a slightly reduced fleet against our best CO?”
“Yes, we can do that. I’ll set it up.”
The test was quite revealing. Oracle used the same overall tactical plan that worked before, but the reduced firepower of the Union fleet wasn’t enough to defeat the FED fleet. At Drake’s urging, they ran the same simulation two more times. The result was two FED wins and one SSU ‘win’. Drake shook his head. The SSU win was marginal at best. One Union ship was left, but it was too badly damaged to conduct any operations against Earth or even return to Sparta. To his mind, it was actually a draw. Assuming more ships would be available wasn’t the answer either. If the SSU had time to build more ships, so did the FEDs. He and Foster were now sitting in her office.
“I thought we might have been on to something, but apparently not,” she said in a dejected voice.
Drake was too busy thinking to reply right away. When he did, he said, “Would P2 consider a strategy where we deliberately tried to lose a battle?”
Foster frowned. “Not on its own. Only if we told it to.” Before she could ask why, Drake interjected.
“What about Majestic? Would it consider that kind of strategy on its own do you think?”
Foster hesitated. “I don’t really know. Maybe. Why?”
“I have an idea. I’d like you to tell P2 to run another strategic projection given the following assumptions. First, Makassar’s industrial capacity is completely destroyed. Second, our fleet is destroyed during an attack on Earth that leaves the FED fleet mostly intact. I’m willing to bet that P2 will predict that the FEDs will quickly follow up that battle with an attack on Sparta.”
“I know we want them to attack Sparta and be defeated, but that strategy assumed that we’d have ships left to threaten Earth and drive home to them how vulnerable they are, so that they’re more willing to negotiate a peace treaty. But if our fleet is destroyed too, I don’t see the advantage of doing that.”
“The advantage is that the FEDS will be back to square one in terms of both shipbuilding and fleet size.”
“So will we,” said Foster.
Drake shook his head. “Not exactly. We’ll still have plenty of missile boats for defense, unlike in the beginning when we only had one, and our shipyards on the member planets will still have partially finished ships, whereas back then no ships were under construction. We’ll also have started work on our backup shipyard facility, while the FEDs will have to begin building up Makassar all over again. That means that their shipbuilding surge won’t start for years. In the meantime, we’ll be building ships faster than they will, and we can use that to keep hitting Makassar. If our R&D starts to kick in, then we’ll have numerical AND qualitative advantages. If we can’t shock FED politicians into suing for peace, then we’ll just wear them down with defeat after defeat, but it all depends on throwing them off balance. We have to make them think they’ve got us by the balls, or they won’t commit their entire fleet.”
“There’s just one problem with that scenario. A lot of our people will have to die on our ships when they’re destroyed.”
Drake smiled and shook his head. “Not if those ships are all controlled remotely by an Oracle-type computer.”
After a few seconds of silence, she said, “You know...that just might work, but it’s going to be tough to convince the CSO, SecDef and the Chancellor to sacrifice our existing fleet.”
“I hope so. If they tell us we’re crazy, then I’ll be a lot more reassured that Majestic won’t consider that strategy, because it’s too irrational. But before we jump to conclusions, we should have P2 game it out.”
“Yes, you’re right. One Queen sacrifice gambit simulation coming up.”
Seventeen hours later, Drake and Foster were seated in Janicot’s office.
“Are you people crazy?” asked Janicot. Drake and Foster looked at each other with barely concealed grins.
“I don’t think so, Admiral. P2 has confirmed our suspicions that if the FED fleet wins the battle for Earth with only minor losses, then there’ll be a lot of pressure on General Trojan to launch an immediate attack on Sparta, even if Majestic doesn’t come to the same conclusion, although P2 thinks it will,” said Foster.
“I know but...those 16 ships represent a lot of resources, credits and effort. It goes against the grain to throw them away like that. What if we only send 10 or 12 ships?”
Both Drake and Foster shook their heads. Drake responded. “We tested that scenario. The FEDs know we have a minimum of 16 ships. If we send less, Majestic will assume we’re holding a strategic reserve back, and the odds of an immediate retaliatory strike on Sparta drop to less than even money. Majestic has to believe that we risked everything on a roll-of-the-dice gamble. In poker parlance, they have to think that we went all in.”
“Even though I see the logic of it, or rather the illogic of it, I still have trouble accepting the concept on a gut level. Convincing the Secretary of Defense is going to be hard enough, but convincing the Chancellor...” Janicot noticed that Drake and Foster were smiling again. “What’s so damned funny?”
Drake told him, and Janicot managed to smile too. “I see your point, Commander. If the idea was less bizarre, Majestic would be more likely to anticipate it, but what if that goddamned machine does anticipate it?”
Drake let Foster field that one. “It may not matter, Admiral. Majestic can’t know for certain that we’re setting them up. It might suspect that as a possibility, and if so, it’ll calculate a probability. But P2’s assessment is that Majestic will also calculate a relatively high probability that we really did roll the dice and lost. Regardless of what Majestic comes up with, it’s going to be very hard for General Trojan and his superiors to resist the natural military inclination to sound the charge when it looks like we’ve made a fatal miscalculation and are vulnerable.”
“I know you talked about the equivalent of sacrificing our Queen, but I had no idea it would be this painful. This plan is going to make me lose a lot of sleep. But as much as I hate to admit it, this looks like our best shot of actually winning this war. I’ll set up a briefing for both SecDef and the Chancellor at the same time.” Janicot pointed his finger at Foster. “You’re the one who’s going to have to sell them on this plan, Major, and I want you there too, Commander.”
After both acknowledged his order, they briefly chatted about less important things, and then Janicot dismissed them. Drake and Foster spent the rest of the day polishing her presentation.
The meeting with Secretary of Defense Sorensen and Chancellor Belloc plus CSO Janicot didn’t take place until mid-afternoon of the next day. It was held in the conference room next to the Chancellor’s office. Belloc sat at the end of the oval table, with Janicot on his left and Sorensen on his right. Foster and Drake sat at the opposite end of the table.
“I’m anxious to hear about this radical new strategic plan that Admiral Janicot refuses to give any hints about, Major Foster. You may begin,” said Belloc.
“Thank you, Chancellor. I will sum up this new strategic plan in one sentence, after which I’ll go into the details. If this plan succeeds the way that our Phase II Oracle predicts, it will reset the entire strategic situation back to what the original expectation was on the day that the SSU took over FED assets. You’ll recall that, at that point in time, it was hoped that the FEDs wouldn’t find out about the SSU for at least six and perhaps as many as nine months, which would give the Union a head start in building ships and other military assets. Unfortunately, the FEDs learned about the SSU much sooner, and they were able to identify and start work on their Makassar shipbuilding initiative long before we were able to start our own backup shipbuilding project.
“In order to engineer this strategic reset, Majestic, General Trojan and the FED military leadership have to be enticed to commit all or virtually all of their available fleet to an attack on Sparta, which we will be ready for. Once we have destroyed their fleet AND all their industry on Makassar, which I will describe in more detail shortly, we will have the upper hand in terms of shipbuilding, both in the short term and also in the long term, because our backup shipbuilding complex will start producing ships long before the FEDs can finish rebuilding Makassar and making it operational.
“So the question is how do we convince the FEDs to attack us prematurely? As long as their numerical superiority in ships is less than three to one, it would be foolish of them to leave Earth vulnerable by committing all their ships to an attack on Sparta. We don’t need Oracle to tell us that when their fleet is big enough to successfully defend Earth AND beat us here at the same time, then and only then will they make that move.
“This is why we have to adopt what the planning group is calling the Queen’s Gambit. Phase One of the plan will involve modification of all our currently commissioned warships so that one of them carries an Oracle-type computer which has been carefully programmed with the necessary tactical skills, and the other ships will be modified so that they can be operated remotely by the Oracle flagship.
“Phase II will start with a massive attack by our fleet on Makassar. The objective there will be nothing less than destroying every industrial site completely. Our Oracle is convinced that the bulk of the FED fleet will remain in Earth orbit in order to continue countering our previous strategy of using an attack on Earth to apply political pressure for a premature attack on Sparta. Once Makassar has been blasted back to square one, our fleet, which will have a minimal crew, will jump to Sol and Phase III will begin.
“In Phase III, our crews will transfer to a freighter, and the flagship Oracle computer will take the fleet to Earth orbit via a micro-jump. At that point, our fleet will attempt to overpower the defending ships, and it’ll be done in such a way that the FED fleet will achieve a decisive and overwhelming victory. Our fleet will be completely destroyed, but since none of our crews will still be on board, there’ll be no human casualties.” Foster saw both Belloc and Sorensen react with surprise. She continued before they had a chance to interrupt.
“Our flagship Oracle will make sure that the FED fleet will have suffered only minor damage. At that point, it will appear to Navy Chief of Staff Chenko that the FED’s numerical superiority in terms of warships has just jumped to at least 10 or 20 to 1, if not more, and that the SSU will appear to be so vulnerable to attack that it will be very difficult to resist the temptation to order General Trojan to send the fleet to Sparta. I should point out here that Admiral Chenko will also understand the geometry of the situation. If he decides to wait until Majestic has been informed of the battle results and recommends to General Trojan to initiate the attack on Sparta, then it will take another five months to send orders back to their fleet still at Earth and then have their fleet start their trip to Sparta. I can tell you from personal observation of Admiral Chenko that he would not accept that delay. He would understand that we could do a lot with an extra five months of preparation. If they were going to try to inflict a serious setback on the SSU by attacking Sparta, then Chenko would override Trojan’s orders and order the fleet back to Hadley with instructions for General Trojan to immediately send it to Sparta, regardless of what Majestic thought of the idea.
“It will interest you to know that our Phase II Oracle has calculated that Majestic would come up with a high probability that our attack on Earth was a serious attempt to follow through with our politically-driven strategy and that we really are vulnerable to a quick retaliatory strike on Sparta. The key to convincing the FED leadership that we rolled the dice and lost will be the battle itself. It has to look like a human fleet commander screwed up. If they suspect that the fleet was controlled by a computer, it might arouse suspicion.
“In terms of the Battle of Sparta, we have some ideas on that too. By the time the FED fleet could get here, we’ll have over 55 missile boats, each of which will carry second generation anti-missile missiles externally, so that their internal missile load can be entirely offensive in nature. Our Phase II Oracle has already calculated that 55 missile boats will have an excellent chance of defeating the 20-25 FED warships that we can expect to see. Even if they somehow managed to send 30 warships, the odds are that we’ll still win because our missile boats will be under the overall tactical control of our Phase II Oracle computer. Recent simulations have conclusively demonstrated that our Oracle can tactically outthink any of our human strategists, and the FED fleet commander should be no different.
“After the Battle of Sparta, we’ll go to Phase IV where the short term output of the shipyards on our 15 core member planets will be used to suppress construction on Makassar and overpower whatever Earth’s shipyards send against us. At some point, especially when our backup shipyard starts to kick in, Majestic will calculate that the FEDs can’t win the war militarily and will recommend that Earth seek a negotiated peace. All that would be left for us to do would be to respond to any peace overture from the FEDs with a reasonable counter-offer, one which would be hard for the politicians to refuse, and the war would be over.” Foster paused, and Belloc took advantage of it.
“Before I comment on the rest of the plan, and I now understand why Admiral Janicot stayed silent about it, I want to ask about this last point, Major. What kind of counter-offer does our Oracle friend think would be reasonable?”
“The basic approach would be one where the Federation government and Earth-based chartered companies are compensated for lost property and revenues. If we also couch our offer in such a way that it appears that we’re recognizing Federation authority over SSU planets, but in an entirely meaningless way, then the Earth politicians can claim to have ‘out negotiated’ us, and they’ll have saved their own political careers by accepting our offer. We’ll still have de facto independence where it really counts. Over time, the Federation will wither away.”
Belloc sighed. “When you put it that way, it all sounds very reasonable and obvious, but after dealing with the other SSU planetary Heads of State for the past six years, I can tell you that we may have difficulty getting that kind of deal ratified by a majority of our member planets. However, that’s a political problem, not a military problem. Considering how grim the outlook is, I’d gladly trade our current situation for that kind of problem. So putting that aside for now, I’d like to get back to the key part of this plan, which is the so-called Queen’s Gambit. What are the risks that we sacrifice our fleet and the FEDs DON’T launch a premature attack on Sparta?”
Foster and Drake exchanged a quick glance. They had discussed that possibility too. “Our Oracle calculates only a 2% chance of that happening, Chancellor, and that’s about as low a probability as anything is likely to get. Oracle would never assign a zero probability to any possible outcome, if only because humans sometimes do stupid and bizarre things. For General Trojan to ignore what to him would appear to be a stroke of luck, the kind of unlikely event that military officers dream of, would require that he have a very different agenda from the one he was given. Off hand, I can’t even think of what type of agenda that could be.”
Belloc nodded but said nothing. He looked over to Sorensen and gestured for her to speak. “I have to confess that I’m a bit confused, Major,” she said. “Last week you were telling us that their Majestic computer could outthink our Oracle no matter what we did, and now you’re saying that we can fool Majestic into recommending this premature attack. Do you see why I’m confused, Major?”
“Yes, Madam Secretary. If our Phase II Oracle had come up with this plan, I’d be worried, but it didn’t. Commander Drake did what I was hoping someone in the planning group would find a way to do, and that was to think unconventionally. What makes this plan workable is the deception. Not even Majestic would give more than the barest minimum odds that the SSU would order 16 crews on a deliberate suicide mission. That’s why our ships have to be defeated in such a way that they can’t be searched after the battle. If the FEDs find derelicts without a single human body on board, then Majestic just might begin looking at alternatives that it normally wouldn’t consider.”
Sorensen continued to look skeptical. “I still think it’s a dangerous idea that could backfire on us badly. In fact, I’d even go so far as to characterize it as reckless, Chancellor.”
Before Belloc had a chance to respond, Foster said, “And that’s exactly why the FED leadership and Majestic won’t suspect it. The more irrational it sounds, the better our chances of pulling it off. Let me put it this way, Madam Secretary. If you still find the plan reckless and dangerous even after we’ve described the deception and potential payoff, how much more reckless and irrational will the supposedly deliberate sacrifice of 16 ship crews sound to Admiral Chenko and General Trojan? I can only reiterate the key to this plan, which is the deception of making the enemy think they’ve legitimately destroyed 16 warships AND their crews.”
When Sorensen said nothing, Belloc leaned forward and said, “Well I don’t have any more questions at this time. Do you, Mandy?” Sorensen shook her head but continued to look skeptical. “In that case, you and Commander Drake are free to go, and thank you, Major, for a most interesting briefing. Mykhel, I’d like you to stay a bit longer so that the three of us can discuss this privately.”
“Certainly, Chancellor,” replied Janicot.
When 72 hours had gone by without any word, Drake began to fear that the Chancellor would veto the plan, so it was a relief to finally hear that Foster and her people had approval to execute the Phase I conversion of the ships. They heard from Janicot that full approval of the rest of the plan would be given once it was certain that the conversion process could be completed successfully.
