“I’M PRETTY GOOD AT ESTIMATING CROWD SIZES”

President Trump’s term began with a surreal national debate over how many people attended his inauguration. Photographs from the National Park Service contradicted his wild boasts, yet Trump and the White House insisted that he had attracted the largest crowd ever to witness a president’s swearing-in.

Trump’s obsession with crowd size was nothing new—and it would become a constant of his presidency. There’s no question Trump can draw supporters by the thousands, but his crowd-size estimates are often so inflated that they are easily disproven.

For example, Trump claimed 50,000 people were outside a rally in Houston because they couldn’t get in, but the city police chief said the number was much lower—3,000. In Cleveland, Trump claimed thousands of people had been left outside because the venue was packed. Twitter users at the event posted evidence that Trump didn’t even fill the space inside and that only a handful of people were milling around in the parking lot. At a Tampa rally, Trump claimed thousands of people who couldn’t get in were watching outside on a “tremendous movie screen,” which didn’t exist.

These Trumpian boasts are easily debunked, because there are local officials, fire marshals, police officers, venue managers and others on the ground whose job it is to count the attendees. Their counts almost invariably come in way lower than the president’s exaggerated guesswork.

We did some scouring. For nine rallies leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, the president’s aggregate estimate of attendance came to 352,600 people. Our review of local officials’ counts and news reports showed the number was much lower: 101,000.

Here’s a taste:

Air Force One at a 2018 Trump campaign rally in Georgia

“I went and did a rally, and the real number was probably 55,000 people, ’cause, you know, were you there in Georgia?… Because we had a hangar, another hangar holding 18,000 at the top of the hangar. These are massive, like 747 hangars.”

—Nov. 14, 2018 (interview)

Trump said he filled two airport hangars; there was only one. The Bibb County Sheriff’s Office estimated 12,500 people inside and nearly 6,000 outside, a far cry from the 55,000 Trump claimed.

“In Erie, Pennsylvania, the other night with 25,000 people outside of a 12,000-seat arena. It’s been amazing.”

—Oct. 12, 2018 (interview)

Police estimated 3,000 people outside a 9,000-seat venue.

“Take a look outside at the thousands of people that wanted to get inside. You got lucky.”

—Nov. 15, 2018 (rally in Indiana)

Reporters looked outside. There was no one.