Signs of change:

early warning indicators

The timelines at the end of the previous four chapters suggest a possible journey from today to each future. In order to confirm or deny one future against another, we need to identify the events that might signal that a particular scenario is beginning to unfold. Early warning indicators alert us to significant changes of direction — that is, to when the trends start to bend. Here are possible indicators for each scenario.

Imagine: a world of intelligence

• The value of new-media and technology companies far outstrips the value of those that manufacture physical goods.
• There is a decline in new-car sales in favour of leasing and partial ownership, and user-pays systems.
• The cost of solar power continues to fall, while efficiency continues to rise.
• Online shopping accounts for over 90 per cent of shoe sales.
• Smartphones exceed sales of PCs, laptops, and simple mobile phones combined. Battery life extends ten times over 2012 performance. Landline telephones become the exception, rather than the rule.
• More than 70 per cent of grocery purchases are made using mobile devices.
• More than 20 per cent of parents select genetic characteristics for their children.
• More than 60 per cent of children have a personalised avatar.

Please Please Me: a world of greed

• The richest 5 per cent of Americans control 75 per cent of America’s net worth.
• The public sector, as a percentage of GDP, falls below 30 per cent.
• The number of children in private education in Australia rises above 55 per cent.
• The most popular degree courses are linked in some way to banking, commercial law, media, or business studies.
• There is a cosmetic surgery boom among teens.
• Charitable donations show a regular year-on-year decline. Tax avoidance services rise 10 per cent year-on-year.
• The average walking speed in major cities is up by 10 per cent, compared to 2012.
• Ferrari announces that China is now its largest market, followed by India.
• Morbid obesity affects more than 20 per cent of India’s population.

Dear Prudence: a world of temperance

• There is an interest in social democratic–style legislation in health, education, privacy, and human rights. Left-ish and centre-left political parties gain ground.
• Community and town-hall meetings increase significantly.
• The impacts of climate change become increasingly volatile.
• Congestion charges in cities become ubiquitous, and as a result there is booming investment in public transport systems.
• NGOs, ethical activism, and philanthropy grows. Taxation is increasingly used to increase opportunity and outcomes for everyone.
• The demand for many goods and services falls due to cultural shifts relating to consumerism.
• Air travel and the physical movement of people and goods declines.
• There are falls in hospital admissions related to stress and anxiety, along with working days lost due to mental health.

Helter Skelter: a world of fear

• Voter turnout in the United States presidential election falls below 40 per cent.
• Far-right political groups grow in number, and attract significant numbers of voters throughout much of Europe.
• Trade tariffs, import taxes, and other economic protection measures are reintroduced. There is a reduction in multilateral trade agreements and an increase in bilateral trade agreements.
• There is a rise in the number of gated communities and home security products, and an increase in the ratio of guns per capita.
• A general decline in health is led by an increase in smoking, drinking, and drug-taking. Sales of prescription drugs such as Valium skyrocket.
• There is growth of private banking and local lending, and in boxes of cash under the mattress.
• An increase in petty theft and cyber crime is recorded.
• Use of the internet for information and purchasing declines.