11

Building Scenario Worlds:

the third stage

Now we are finally ready to build our scenario worlds. This stage involves convergence. We take the fruits of our brainstorming about the external environment and mould them into several scenarios. There are two main process that we can use to do this, but whichever process we use, this stage is not about prediction or probability. It’s about imagining alternative futures that are plausible, robust, and challenging. We also need to ensure that we have created very different futures, from the utopian to the dystopian, and from the incremental to the radical.

Narrowing the Influences

We started by narrowing down the 300 or so influences that we identified in Chapter 10 as having the potential to change the world. We’re not going to drown you with an initial list of all 300 influences — we’ll skip ahead to a shorter, refined list. We used the (I)NSPECT categories once more to both simplify and expand on our brainstorming, and to identify the relevant influences. The following table is the result. Next to each influence we have also given details of the uncertainty that we want to examine.

The Worldview Scenarios Influence Table

INFLUENCE	WHAT WE WANT TO EXAMINE
Nature
Climate change and the weather	Level of volatility
Polar ice-caps	Rate of melting
Fresh water	Availability, price, and quality
Oil and other natural resources	Scarcity and price
Pandemics	Incidence
Natural disasters	Impact of local events on global systems
Society
Neurology	Impact of technology on
Reality	Physical versus virtual
Ageing	Impact on the economy and households
Fertility	Impact on labour supply
Urbanisation	Ubiquity and rate of growth
Households	Dynamics of living spaces
Family life	Nature (e.g. fragmented, nuclear, cohesive)
Generational change	Impact on the economy and society
Multiculturalism	Impact on society
Traditional media	Top-down versus bottom-up
Social media	Active versus passive
Attention spans	Level
Surveillance	Level
Measures of progress	Economic versus humanitarian
Politics
Cyber security	Level of risk
Media	Impact
Government	Big versus small
Governance	Top-down versus bottom-up
Taxation	Level
Regulatory framework	Level (e.g. low/restorative/high)
Infrastructure	Public versus private provision
Values	Conservative versus liberal
Green politics	Level
Global trade	Free versus protectionist
Representative democracy	Relevance
Globalisation	Global versus local focus
Warfare	Tech-based versus physical
Economics
Consumer preferences	Price versus value
Innovation	Level
Crowdsourcing	Level
Crowdfunding	Level
Economic growth	Long boom versus collapse
The economy	Free market versus mixed and ethical
Jobs	Availability and type
The creative economy	Size
Money	Equitability, physical versus digital
Brand loyalty	Level
BRICs	Power base
PIIIGS	Economic health
Capitalism 1	Autocratic versus free market
Capitalism 2	Individualistic versus communitarian
Capitalism 3	Ascendant versus in decline
Culture
Popular culture	Dynamics of participation
Individualism	Me versus we
Worldview	Global versus local
Consumerism	Active versus passive
US culture	Global dominance of
Literacy	Text-based versus visual
Spirituality	Growth
Privacy	Level
Leisure pursuits	Pleasure versus improvement
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs	Survival and utility versus status and fun
Technology
Internet 1	Dependability
Internet 2	Level of neutrality
Internet 3	Access
Mobile	Level of convergence
Landline telephones	Amount
Cloud computing	Global versus local control
Optimism regarding technology	Level
Biotechnology	Organic versus radical
Technology pushback	Level of ‘must have’
Nanotechnology	Impact

Our next task was to sort the list by ranking each of them by importance and level of uncertainty.

Before we did so, we once again reminded ourselves of the framing questions against which this sorting needs to be done: What opportunities and challenges might we face in 2040, in terms of lifestyles that are socially, culturally, and ecologically desirable? What can we do to influence the future as it might unfold to promote more resilient and successful ways of living?

Figure 12 shows how we charted the key influences, the critical uncertainties. In charting them, we could see the environmental conditions that are more likely to shape the relevant alternative futures out to 2040.

Creating a Scenario Matrix

Remember the critical uncertainties we discussed in Chapter 8? When we used them in relation to the Worldview Scenarios, we created an impax chart, shown in Figure 13.

We then created a series of matrices by selecting any pair of impaxes that we believed would be significant shapers of the future. We chose impaxes that were quite dissimilar to ensure that the relationship between the two was orthogonal — that is, that each was qualitatively different from the other.

After several days of play, we settled on the pair in Figure 14: individualism versus collectivism (the prevailing level of emphasis on ‘me’ at one end of the continuum, and on ‘we’ or ‘us’ at the other), and whether society as a whole felt optimistic or pessimistic about the present and the future (optimism, primarily about climate change and economic prospects, at one end, and pessimism at the other). We also considered many other drivers — for example, societal attitudes towards technology — but we felt that while they were uncertain, they did not carry quite the level of impact or uncertainty provided by either climate change or the economy.

We choose this pair as a starting point because we know that we don’t live in a two-variable world — however enamoured you may be of the two-speed economy!

Then we enriched each world by going back to the larger group of impaxes and introducing each instrument, rather in the manner of Peter and the Wolf, until we had a veritable orchestra to create the music of our Worldview Scenarios.

It’s important to name each of the four quadrants, or scenarios, represented on the matrix. After much discussion, we settled upon the following four names.

This matrix was the foundation upon which the Worldview Scenarios stories were built. But before we wrote the stories, we had to enrich the worlds, imagining that we were living in each of them and ensuring that there were more than two characteristics to give each future its individual sex, colour, and movement. We have summarised our thinking about what it would be like to live in each of these futures in the table of scenario characteristics that follow.

Armed with our matrix and the table, we were able to write the narratives to bring our worlds to life.

IMAGINE

Society

• smart
• collaborative and open
• reliant on technology
• crowdsourcing is popular

Economy

• undergoing a boom driven by investment in technology
• productivity gains from automation
• not immune to bubbles or volatility

Environment

• positive attitude (‘if we caused it, we can fix it’)
• increasing reliance on clean tech
• growth of geoengineering

Politics

• e-government polling on key questions
• online and mobile voting
• public–private partnerships

Regulation

• geared to encouraging green investment

Technology

• revered; seen as bringing order to chaos
• high level of automation
• advanced developments in AI, biology, robotics, and genetics
• customised virtual realities

Personal relationships

• strong online social networks
• large number of acquaintances
• weak personal ties

Work

• often internet-based and fast-paced
• flexible: work from anywhere; many freelancers and project workers

Leisure activities

• shopping
• virtual entertainment
• online gaming
• co-creating media content

Spending patterns and currencies

• mobile retail
• e-money
• peer-to-peer lending and borrowing

Key needs

• utility
• convenience: access to anything, anytime, from anywhere

Dominant or admired companies and organisations

• Google, Apple, Facebook, GE, IBM, Siemens, and other tech-based companies

Epitomised by

• Mark Zuckerberg

In a word

• Ingenuity

PLEASE PLEASE ME

Society

• oriented towards the individual
• hedonistic, narcissistic,
  and self-indulgent
• competitive (‘get rich or
  die trying’)
• culture of excess
• economic inequality
• decline of empathy

Economy

• undergoing a long boom driven by BRIC/N11 income growth and consumer spending
• free-market capitalist ideology

Environment

• reluctant attitude (‘we’ll deal with it if we have to’)
• threat of climate change seen as exaggerated

Politics

• liberalism
• tension between globalisation and localism
• focus on human rights

Regulation

• minimal
• subject to frequent abuses

Technology

• coveted; seen as must-have
• high levels of addiction
• used to offset the effects of obesity and sedentary lifestyles

Personal relationships

• strong online social networks
• fragmented personal relationships
• loneliness and high rate of mental illness
• little sense of community

Work

• globalised
• high pressure, low loyalty
• youth in control
• growth of concierge services and household outsourcing

Leisure activities

• shopping
• following celebrity gossip
• eating and drinking

Spending patterns and currencies

• impulsive spending
• mobile purchasing
• high levels of personal debt
• income polarisation

Key needs

• status
• immediate access to new technologies
• consumer goods
• pleasure

Dominant or admired companies and organisations

• Ferrari, Vertu, Harrods, Louis Vuitton, Moët, and other luxury-goods companies
• casinos

Epitomised by

• Paris Hilton

In a word

• Excess

DEAR PRUDENCE

Society

• ethical and responsible
• sense of resilience
• rebirth of communal living
• people learning to live with less (‘make do and mend’)
• culture of helping others

Economy

• has suffered a collapse
• high inflation

Environment

• acceptance of climate change (‘we’re in serious trouble’)
• sustainability goals
• carbon tax and other ‘green’ regulation

Politics

• the rise of the ‘third way’
• longer-term focus
• voter engagement

Regulation

• targets individual excess

Technology

• technology regression
• rationed

Personal relationships

• family rediscovered and embraced
• close relationships with neighbours

Work

• reduced hours to rebalance work and family time
• usually based locally
• little pressure and competition

Leisure activities

• do-it-yourself projects and crafts
• community activities
• reading

Spending patterns and currencies

• responsible and ethical spending
• peer-to-peer lending
• bartering
• ethical savings and investments
• more local purchasing

Key needs

• meaning and purpose
• simplicity
• information
• reassurance and comfort

Dominant or admired companies and organisations

• Ben & Jerry’s, John Lewis, Toms Shoes, Co-op Bank, and other cooperatives

Epitomised by

• Al Gore

In a word

• Hope

HELTER SKELTER

Society

• high levels of disillusionment
• survivalist mentality
• self-sufficiency is increasing
• self-centred attitude (‘look after your own problems’)
• xenophobia
• nostalgia
• theft of fuel, food, and water a major problem

Economy

• has largely collapsed
• short-term volatility
• little available credit

Environment

• resource wars
• constant problems due to extreme weather

Politics

• national self-interest
• culture of blame
• distrust of politicians and government

Regulation

• protectionist

Technology

• blamed for causing problems; there is a Luddite backlash
• active hostility to job-destroying automation

Personal relationships

• restricted to immediate family and near neighbours
• many in single-person households
• often more than one generation living under one roof in multiple-person households

Work

• high unemployment
• highly regulated conditions
• resurgence of trades and manufacturing

Leisure activities

• gardening and home maintenance
• do-it-yourself projects

Spending patterns and currencies

• cash
• local bartering
• personal savings
• growth in black markets
• pride in spending as little as possible

Key needs

• protection
• security
• safety
• comfort
• value
• face-to-face contact

Dominant or admired companies and organisations

• Fox News, Daily Mail
• The British National Party, One Nation, the Zaitokukai, and other right-wing political groups

Epitomised by

• Jean-Marie Le Pen

In a word

• Foreboding