Epilogue:

strategic shocks — ten game-changers for 2040

Just when you thought it was safe to relax, here are a handful of radical ideas that could turn your world upside-down. In scenario parlance, these are the wildcards — events that may seem unlikely, but would have a huge impact if they were ever to occur.

A Second American Civil War

Don’t say we weren’t warned! Bruce (The Boss) Springsteen’s ‘Wrecking Ball’ anthem, stating that ‘we take care of our own’, and the Occupy Wall Street movement of 2011 hinted at what was coming.

The nascent failure of US capitalism to deliver the American dream has created the great divide. In the blue corner: the Tea Party traditionalists and the do-what-is-good-for-me Democrats. In the red corner: everyone else, including many Republicans, who have been persistently marginalised and exploited to pay for the extraordinary US global debt and the failure of ‘small’ government to protect its citizens against natural phenomena such as hurricanes, flooding, and the hell-bent erosion of the country’s natural assets. This has lead to what is effectively a Balkanisation of the United States.

Children Born Today Need Never Die

The science of cryogenics has been frozen out by the dramatic inventions in bio-engineering. Stem-cell research and the advances in the human genome mean that we can now renew our bodies again and again: replacing ageing tissue and faulty organs, repairing trauma sites, and even substituting brain cells. And the ability to use the technology to alter the way we look or even our gender whenever we want has given new meaning to our life experiences. Rites of passage are swamped by the ennui of eternity, and the concept of romantic love is swept away by the mantra of manipulation.

Oil Hits US$500 a Barrel

Oil has, as we thought it might, risen sharply to US$300 a barrel in 2035. Unfortunately, alternative energy didn’t save us; it was always going to be too little, too late. Traditional fuels were also hounded by problems, not least of which was their link to carbon — so, no saving grace from natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels. Conservation seemed to be the only solution; doing more with less fuelled the focus on productivity and the need to change lifestyles as best we could.

But then a black bird flew in from the Middle East. This was not on the wings of conventional concerns about OPEC-style control of oil supply. Nor was it about the political stability of the Saudi royal family, or even the entrenched ‘Al-Qaeda question’. No, it was when Israeli rockets rained on Tehran in 2039 and forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, which carried a third of the sea-traded oil.

Bird-flu Pandemic Kills 500 Million Worldwide

It started innocuously enough. Well, not really, as nobody had been inoculated against this strain of bird flu. We learned later that the fatal event was an illegal cockfight in the Canary Islands, of all places, where local canaries were being pitched against saffron finches from the Amazon. One of the bird owners became contaminated after receiving scratches from both species. And the incubation period — well, it was a lightning 48 hours.

Of course, all of this needed something else. Unfortunately the carrier was a big rock ‘n’ roll fan, and hopped on a plane immediately after the fight to join 100,000 young kids at Shea Stadium, where an ageing Lady Gaga was performing on her Really Gaga tour. The rest, as they say, is history.

The Moon Becomes a Colony of China

This is a reprise of the Moon landings of almost 80 years ago. Space Race Two has been between Russia and China. It burst into life when the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, announced a manned mission to the Moon in 2035. The United States had long given away any interest in Moon landings, but the Chinese took up the challenge. Their Long March programme was more than a wish to lead the world in the science of manned space travel; it was also a push to lead the world in extraterrestrial colonisation. Peak oil and peak everything makes the search for new sources of raw materials — and, indeed, new materials — a critical requirement. Get in first and the cosmos is your oyster.

On 1 April 2040, Zai Zigzag in Shenzhou 21 blasted off from Jiuquan Space Launch Center in Inner Mongolia with his crew of 11; and just seven hours and 24 minutes later, the five yellow stars on the Chinese national flag were fluttering in the Moon breeze at the top of Mons Huygens. Earth’s satellite is now a colony of the Chinese.

Louis XX Crowned King of France

The collapse of the European Union after 60 years of trying, and the disappearance of the euro as a currency, had every European looking back to whence they had come. And none more so than the French, whose fervent and, at times, chauvinistic national pride had forever made them outsiders to Germany’s view of a united Europe, and the major anti-US cultural force. With the renaissance of the franc (although this time in mercifully smaller denominations) came a groundswell of nostalgia, and the idea of re-establishing the French monarchy. The website www.ancestry.net.fr suddenly became the focus for frantic research to confirm that Louis XX, born in 1974 and now 65 years old, was indeed the rightful heir to the throne. And on a bloodless Bastille Day of 14 July 2040 in the cathedral of Notre Dame, the coronation of Louis Alphonse de Bourbon, Duke of Anjou, took place. Plus ça change plus c’est la meme chose …

The Internet Collapses

While everyone is waiting for a devastating physical or cyber attack on the internet, users start to abandon it in droves, due to serious problems. These do not involve spyware and viruses or hackers and trolls, but rather the government and corporate takeover of what was once a free worldwide web. Governments start to impose censorship, which effectively turns the internet into a series of regional intranets, while large corporations lock down much of the content, which results in the internet losing much of its free, open, and generative nature.

Hollywood Movies Plummet

For the first time in movie history, the Oscar nominations for best movie, best director, and best actor (male and female) failed to include one Hollywood movie. The Global Oscars, as they are now called, have long since been open in all categories, but the demise of Hollywood still comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that English-language movie production would now be centred in Chinawood, the film-making centre outside Tianjin, which has been servicing co-productions between the United States and China since 2012?

Water is the New Oil

Urbanisation, along with rising incomes, means that attitudes and behaviours relating to consumption change significantly. The result is that that half of the world’s population ends up living in highly water-stressed regions. China, India, parts of Africa, and numerous other rapidly developing economies all suffer from severe water shortages and problems with water quality, which puts a brake on economic growth and triggers widespread social unrest.

Energy Becomes Almost Free

Breakthroughs in new technologies, ranging from synthetic biology and fusion technology to nanotechnology, lead to incredible gains in terms of energy production and supply. Moreover, developments in artificial intelligence, robotics, and intelligent systems create productivity gains that are totally unexpected and solve many of the problems related to societal ageing.

And now, we’ll leave you with a final caution from Ian McEwan’s great scenario-puzzle novel Enduring Love:

Can you blame me for hating you for the things you allow to fill your mind — satellites, nano-technologies, genetic engineering, bio computers, hydrogen engines. It’s all shopping. You buy it all, you’re a cheerleader for it, an adman hired to talk up other people’s stuff … [There’s] not a word about the real things like love and faith.