4. TRIGGERS

  1. Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department (New York: W. W. Norton, 1969), p. 36.

  2. See David E. Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions, “Marginal Value and Intrinsic Risk Aversion,” United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1988.

  3. “The 1983 War Scare Declassified and For Real,” National Security Archive, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb533-The-Able-Archer-War-Scare-Declassified-PFIAB-Report-Released/.

  4. “Russian Military Incident Tracker,” American Security Project, https://www.americansecurityproject.org/us-russia-relationship/russian-military-incident-tracker/.

  5. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and US Commandos Unfolded in Syria,” New York Times, May 24, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html.

  6. Neil Hauer, “Russia’s Mercenary Debacle in Syria: Is the Kremlin Losing Control?,” Foreign Affairs, February 26, 2018.

  7. Natalia Vasilyeva, “Thousands of Russian Private Contractors Fighting in Syria,” Associated Press, December 12, 2017, https://apnews.com/7f9e63cb14a54dfa9148b6430d89e873.

  8. Ellen Nakashima, Karen DeYoung, and Liz Sly, “Putin Ally Said to Be in Touch with Kremlin Before His Mercenaries Attacked US Troops,” Washington Post, February 22, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putin-ally-said-to-be-in-touch-with-kremlin-assad-before-his-mercenaries-attacked-us-troops/2018/02/22/f4ef050c-1781-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html?utm_term=.033a4cd8fba2.

  9. John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989).

  10. James M. Acton, “Escalation Through Entanglement: How the Vulnerability of Command-and-Control Systems Raises the Risks of an Inadvertent Nuclear War,” International Security 43, no. 1 (2018): pp. 56–99.

  11. Acton, p. 62.

  12. US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review (Washington, D.C.: US Department of Defense, 2018), p. 21, https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-NUCLEAR-POSTURE-REVIEW-FINAL-REPORT.PDF.

  13. Acton, “Escalation Through Entanglement,” p. 56.

  14. Alexey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Petr Topychkanov, “Entanglement as a New Security Threat: A Russian Perspective,” in Entanglement: Russian and Chinese Perspectives on Non-Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risks, ed. James M. Acton (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2017), p. 13.

  15. Polit Navigator, “Kalashnikov Called for Supporting Donbass with Weapons,” October 13, 2008, https://www.politnavigator.net/kalashnikov-prizyval-podderzhat-donbass-postavkami-oruzhiya.html.

  16. Andy Greenberg, “The Untold Story of NotPetya, the Most Devastating Cyberattack in History,” Wired, August 22, 2018, https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/.

  17. Dan Glass, “What Happens If GPS Fails?,” Atlantic, June 13, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/06/what-happens-if-gps-fails/486824/.