Jim Cobb and I met because of my books and his voracious reading habits. I’m not sure how Jim came across my debut novel, Ashfall, but now that I know him better, I’m not surprised that he did. He’s the only person I know who’s as well read in apocalyptic fiction as I am, and he knows disaster- and survival-related nonfiction far, far better than I ever will.
Why should you care about Jim’s fiction-reading habits? Well, fiction has an uncanny habit of predicting reality. In 1865 Jules Verne published From the Earth to the Moon, which correctly predicted every detail of the Apollo program except its propulsion system. Verne even forecast the location of the Kennedy Space Center—ninety-seven years before it opened. More ominously, in Debt of Honor Tom Clancy predicted the use of a civilian airliner as a weapon against the US government—seven years before 9/11.
I fervently hope that the scenario I fictionalize in Ashfall—the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano—doesn’t become reality, but if it does, the book you’re holding could save your life. And regardless of what I hope, the Yellowstone supervolcano is going to erupt again. Every time I meet a geologist—I’ve corresponded with five or six of them in the course of researching my own work—I ask two questions. First, will the Yellowstone supervolcano erupt again? And second, when? Each geologist I’ve spoken to has responded in the same way: Yes, Yellowstone will erupt again, and none of us has any idea when it will happen.
You have, no doubt, heard the aphorism that hope is not a strategy. If you’re looking to progress beyond hope, to learn strategies for surviving the end of the world as we know it, then Countdown to Preparedness is a great place to start. You won’t find any quick fixes in this book. Those who rely on quick fixes will be among the first to die. Disasters are by definition intensely stressful. They create conditions under which humans revert to routine—under stress, we can only perform actions we’ve practiced. This is why the military trains so relentlessly. In the heat of battle, soldiers can do only what they’ve internalized in their muscle memory. Preparation and planning are the only path to survival—for both soldiers and preppers.
Part of the genius of this book is that Jim breaks that preparation down into digestible weekly chunks. Over the fifty-two-week course he’s planned for your benefit, you’ll learn and practice critical skills, save for larger purchases, and build up your water and food stockpiles in a consistent, sustainable way.
It’s fashionable in some circles to look down on preppers. There’s now a whole television series that seems to be devoted to mocking them. But at its heart, prepping is nothing more than an extension of the motto I learned as a teenager in the Boy Scouts: Be Prepared. And while it’s extremely unlikely that Yellowstone will erupt during our lifetime, we’re virtually assured of facing a disaster of some sort. Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather- and ocean-related disasters. Because of the burgeoning global population, more people live in harm’s way than at any previous time in human history. If everyone were well prepared for a brief disaster—a Hurricane Katrina or Sandy, for example—the world would inarguably be a safer place.
Every movement has its fringe elements, and preppers are no different. There are dozens of websites extolling the alleged virtues of ever-larger firearms without once mentioning the thousands of hours of practice needed to use those firearms effectively. The truth, of course, is that the best gun is one you can use effectively when it counts. The dinkiest pistol in the hands of an expert is a more dangerous weapon than an oversized rifle in the hands of a novice. Similarly, it doesn’t matter how much food you stockpile if you don’t routinely check and rotate your stocks. Spoiled food could be worse than none at all—if you’re sick, you can’t forage or defend yourself effectively.
This is one reason that Jim’s advice is so valuable. He isn’t trying to sell you any particular kind of gun or brand of freeze-dried food. He has no particular religious or political dogma to push. Instead, he’s relentlessly focused on what works. In this book, you’ll find solid, practical advice on how to get better prepared. Jim doesn’t just tell you to stockpile water—he suggests sources for free or inexpensive water containers and explains which kinds work best for long-term storage and why. He’ll help you develop a schedule for rotating perishable stocks (and almost everything is perishable in the long run). He even suggests a modest savings plan for preppers on a budget.
I will continue to hope that nothing similar to the disaster I depict in Ashfall comes to pass. But if it does, reading Countdown to Preparedness and completing the simple, no-nonsense strategies Jim Cobb recommends may well be the difference between survival and the nearly unthinkable alternative.
—Mike Mullin,
author of Ashfall, Ashen Winter, and Sunrise