The list of people who made it possible for me to write this book is long. It starts, of course, with my family: my father Richard, and my late mother Deedy, who inspired in me a love of games, a love of teaching, and a love of writing—a good brew for creating this book; my brother Howard, for being a great brother and for his obvious influence in my poker career and my dedication to treating the art of decision-making as a science, and vice versa—many of the ideas in this book originated from conversations with him; and my sister Katy, for being a supportive sister, an inspiring writer and poet who I hope to impress the littlest bit, and for doing a careful read and edit of the book, encouraging me every step of the way.
Levine Greenberg Rostan Literary Agency and Portfolio collaborated on the business of getting this book published. It took a lot to get me into this project, and a lot more to get this book out of me. Wonderful people in both organizations did so much to help me and enhance the final product:
Jim Levine, my literary agent and hand-holder, who got me through the proposal writing and has been there every step of the way. Jim believed in the project from the beginning, helped me work through many different ways to attack the material, and patiently guided me through many iterations of the proposal. His enthusiasm for this book never wavered, and kept me sane through my own periods of self-doubt. And to Matthew Huff, Jim’s assistant, who has been there since the very first meeting and offered invaluable help in the proposal-writing process.
Niki Papadopoulos, my editor and therapist, who made this book immeasurably better in so many ways, not the least of which by suggesting a format that forced an organization of ideas that I could not have achieved otherwise. I’m forever grateful. And to Leah Trouwborst for, along with Niki, providing encouragement, editorial guidance, and occasional therapy. And to Vivian Roberson for keeping the production trains running on time.
Everyone in these acknowledgments (and many others) encouraged me to write this book. I’d like to single out, for specific contributions in this regard, Dan Ariely, who also introduced me to Jim Levine, and Charles Duhigg, who also kindly shared his book proposal for The Power of Habit, which was an invaluable guide to writing my own proposal. Dan and Charles played significant roles from the time this project was in its infancy. Both gave generously of their time and attention, and encouraged me to believe that poker provided valuable insight into decision-making.
Glen Clarkson’s encouragement has also been remarkable. He has tried to get me to write this book forever. I insisted on writing about poker strategy first. He was a noodge in the most positive sense of the term, and he was right.
Among the people who inspired me in my education, several stand out:
Lila Gleitman, my advisor at Penn, who inspired in me a love of the study of learning and has been a role model for scientific endeavor—intrepid, funny, smart, insightful, and passionate about her work. She taught me to think like a scientist and, at eighty-eight, is still the most inspiring person I know. She has also been incredibly generous in the time since she was my advisor, especially given that I left the program before getting my PhD. She was happy for the life I created after leaving and never once made me feel bad for not finishing. And to the memory of her husband Henry, who was also my mentor, a master of experimental design, and a character who looms so large in my intellectual development.
Barbara Landau, who got me interested in and excited about psychology at Columbia. I am grateful for the four years I was able to spend as her research assistant while an undergrad. She also pushed me to continue my studies at Penn, where she had studied with Lila and Henry Gleitman.
Jon Baron, who taught my first seminar on decision-making. Bob Rescorla, for sharing his fascination with conditioning and guiding me in the depths of learning about learning. And all the professors at Columbia and Penn that taught me and nurtured in me the interest and curiosity to explore science, psychology, behavior, learning, and decision-making.
Even after I took a leave of absence from school to play poker—for twenty years—I never left the subjects that captivated me: how we learn and what we do with the product of our learning. I am grateful to so many people I met along the way in poker. I appreciate the poker community for welcoming a young girl into the game, and helping me find mentors, friends, and unforgettable characters who enriched my time in the game. And I am grateful to the game of poker itself, which offered me something to be passionate about, rewarding me for discoveries about its complexity, at the same time reminding me that, for every layer I peeled off, there were always more layers beneath it.
My appreciation for poker would not be complete without especially thanking Erik Seidel for innumerable reasons, including showing me what it means to really strive to be a rational thinker.
Particular thanks to David Grey, for sharing his story about Ira the Whale; Phil Hellmuth, for uttering one of the best quotes in poker history; and John Hennigan, for sharing his story about moving to Des Moines on a bet. These superlative players and many others also bestowed their expertise and friendship, a truly wonderful gift. I was lucky to watch and learn from, in addition, remarkable players including Chris Ferguson, Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese, Gus Hansen, Huckleberry Seed, Ted Forrest, Andy Bloch, Mori Eskandani, Phil Ivey, Bobby Buckler, Allen Cunningham, Danny Robison, and Chau Giang. (These and so many other wonderful players I encountered over the years weren’t just remarkable in their skills: they were remarkable in their variety of approaches toward the similar goal of making good decisions.)
This book would not exist without the input and feedback I received from all the companies, conferences, professional groups, and executives who have hired me over the years, giving me an opportunity to workshop my ideas through keynotes, retreats, consulting, and coaching. That started with Roger Lowe, who took a chance on inviting a poker player to speak to options traders about how poker could inform decision-making. Without his outside-the-box request back in 2002, this book might never have happened. Those nascent ideas I expressed at that retreat were the small beginnings of what bloomed over time into this book.
During the time it took to write this book, countless friends in publishing, academics, and business shared their expertise, knowledge, and passion, engaging me in discussions, answering my questions, and leading me to further information:
Colin Camerer, who took time out to talk to a stranger.
Stuart Firestein, for reminding me as I wavered about whether to write this book that uncertainty is an interesting, exciting topic. He continues to be an inspiration to me and a great friend. His joyfulness and enthusiasm are contagious, even if they are impossible to duplicate.
Olivia Fox Cabane, for encouraging me and enthusiastically believing uncertainty is an interesting topic to write about.
Victoria Gray, for introducing me to so many brilliant scholars through Adventures of the Mind (including George Dyson and Stuart Firestein) and for being such a great friend.
Jon Haidt, whom I first met when we were first-year graduate students at Penn, for taking time out after being swamped after the 2016 election to get on the phone with me, and for reminding me to delve back into John Stuart Mill.
Maria Konnikova, who helped me through the process of writing this book and has shown me a fresh perspective on how poker can inspire. We both share a crush on Erik Seidel’s intellect.
Dave Lenowitz, for his intellectual curiosity and willingness to share ideas.
Robert MacCoun, for several great conversations on the topic of outcome blindness.
Gary Marcus, for engaging me in some long conversations on subjects that helped form the ideas of the book. I first met Gary when we were in grad school, when I was a student of Lila’s and he was a student of Steven Pinker’s. We reconnected years later after I started working on this book, and the conversations I have been lucky to have with him about memory and time were invaluable.
Gabriele Oettingen and her husband Peter Gollwitzer, psychology professors at NYU, who were kind enough to have a very long lunch with me to talk about mental contrasting. That conversation was invaluable to this book.
Gerry Ohrstrom, for reintroducing me to Gary Marcus, who in turn introduced me to Gabriele Oettingen and Peter Gollwitzer.
Joseph Sweeney, whose love of learning and devouring of material in this space led to many long lunch conversations that informed this book and made it better in so many ways.
Philip Tetlock, for a conversation that became three of the most informative hours of my life; also for encouraging me to reacquaint myself with Robert Merton’s scientific norms.
Joseph Kable, for kindly having lunch with me to talk about the brain circuitry recruited in imagining the future.
Thank you to all my friends and colleagues at How I Decide, an educational nonprofit foundation I cofounded with the mission to equip youth with better decision-making and critical thinking skills (www.howidecide.org). Thanks to the all the dedicated folks who do the heavy lifting, executive director Dave Lenowitz and all the staff: Dan Donaldson, Dylan Gordon, Jillian Hardgrove, Adriana Massara, Ramin Mohajer, and Joseph Sweeney. And thank you to all the members of the board and advisory council. In addition to so many individual contributions from these wonderful people to the book, their hard work and dedication have been a constant inspiration for me to do my best at understanding and teaching decision-making skills.
Thanks to the following people who read early portions or drafts of this material and offered their comments: Jim Doughan, Paul Schoemaker, T. C. Scornavacchi, Todd Simkin, and Joseph Sweeney.
A special thanks to Michael Craig—who gave me extraordinary and invaluable editorial help. Without him this book would never have happened. I am grateful to him for his professional help and for being a good friend.
I am indebted for the help of Jenifer Sarver, who literally runs my professional life and keeps the trains running on time; I’d fall apart without her. I’m also thankful for Luz Stable’s vital role in helping me juggle my business responsibilities while writing this book.
I appreciate that my friends graciously put up with my being in a black hole during the writing of this book and patiently waited for me to stick my head back up. I canceled plans more times than I can count and the understanding I got back will not be forgotten.
This book truly would not have happened without Eric, who puts up with me and inspires me, both in the writing of this book and in every other way. Thank you to my stepchildren, who have made my life so much fuller, and have always been patient and understanding.
Just as I benefited greatly from the foundation and continuous help provided by my parents and my siblings, my most important influence continues to be my wonderful, exceptional children. They put up with me. They put up with this book. Teaching them has been the goal of my life, and yet it’s impossible to even contemplate all the things they’ve taught me. They are awesome and inspire me every day.