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AARP, 185
accountability, 129, 130, 135–37, 149, 150, 176, 188, 199, 204
accuracy, 129, 130, 132–34, 136, 138, 139, 145, 150, 155–56, 158, 160, 161, 171
Adventures of the Mind, 243n
After-School All-Stars (ASAS), 213–15, 217
age-progression technology, 184–87
agreement, 173–74
Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), 127–28, 132–33, 248n
All In: The Poker Musical, 91
all-or-nothing thinking, see black-and-white thinking
American Foreign Service Association, 139–40
Anguished English (Lederer), 90n
approval, 132–34
Ariely, Dan, 89
Armstrong, Scott, 143
Ascent of Man, The (Bronowski), 20
assent, 173
automobile accidents, 89–90, 101, 111–12
backgammon, 244n
Back to the Future movies, 177
Bailenson, Jeremy, 185
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 185
Bartman, Steve, 98–100, 114, 229, 247n
baseball, 84
Bartman play in, 98–100, 114, 229, 247n
Behavioral and Brain Sciences (BBS), 146–48, 153, 154
behavioral economics, 11
behavioral research, 107
beliefs, 43, 44, 47–72, 76–77, 115, 122, 130
accuracy of, 138
based on hearing something, 49–53, 65–66
betting on, 61–62, 64–67, 72, 79–80, 84, 209
confidence in, 67–72, 135, 169
confirmatory thought and, 128
as contagious, 168
expressing, 170
formation of, 49–55, 59, 61, 65–66, 80
information and, 49–53, 55–56, 59–61, 66, 70, 94, 138–39
and processing experience, 57–59
smart people and, 62–64
stubbornness of, 59–62
Believing Brain, The (Shermer), 11–12
Benghazi attack, 92
Berkshire Hathaway, 191–93
bet(s), 111–14
accountability and, 135
on beliefs, 61–62, 64–67, 72, 79–80, 84, 209
definition of, 44
against ourselves, 45–46
winning, 130
bias, 66, 124, 131–32, 139, 157, 181n, 207
confirmatory thought and, 128–29, 132, 141–48, 155
exploratory thought and, 128
hindsight, 10, 26, 212, 227–31
Rashomon Effect and, 157–58
self-serving, 89–96, 102, 103, 108, 110–12, 115, 132, 136, 194
Binion’s Horseshoe Casino, 101, 124n
black-and-white thinking, 29–31, 34, 67, 94–95, 97, 105
blackjack, 194–96
blind-spot bias, 62–63, 125–26
Bosnia, 140
Bossypants (Fey), 250n
brain, 11–15, 53, 107, 110, 116, 122, 132, 165, 183, 188, 191, 198, 219
brain tumors, 197
Brethren, The (Woodward and Armstrong), 143
Breyer, Justice, 143–44
Bronowski, Jacob, 20
Buddhist monks, 110
Burger, Justice, 143
Burke, Brian, 6
Caldwell, Charley, 57
Camerer, Colin, 13, 242n
Cantril, Hadley, 57–58
car accidents, 89–90, 101, 111–12
cardiovascular disease, 55, 164–65
Carroll, Pete, 5–7, 10, 11, 22, 33, 35, 46, 48, 165–66, 216–18, 229, 230, 241n–42n
Carstensen, Laura, 185
Catching Hell, 99
Center for Retirement Research, 184
Central Park, 220
CEO’s president-firing decision, 8–11, 33, 43, 48, 158, 229–30
certainty:
see also uncertainty
characterizations, 205
chess, 20–23, 80, 86, 91, 219, 244n
Clinton, Hillary, 32–33, 92, 230–31, 245n
Cocteau, Jean, 98
coelacanth, 67–68
communication:
with world beyond our group, 172–76
communism, Mertonian, 154–60, 206
comparison and competition, 104, 105, 107, 109, 110, 123, 165
compassion, 102–3, 105, 113–14
self-, 206
ConAgra, 228–29
confidence in beliefs, 67–72, 135, 169
overconfidence, 204
confidence intervals, 72
confirmatory thought, 128–29, 132, 141–48, 155, 205
conflicts of interest, 164–69, 206–7
Conrad, Lauren, 119–21, 125, 161, 175, 205
consequences, 179–80
Constitution, 156
Crawford, Jarret, 146
CUDOS, 153–55
disinterestedness, 154, 155, 164–69
Mertonian communism, 154–60, 206
organized skepticism, 154, 155, 169–71, 206, 224
universalism, 154, 155, 160–64, 173, 205
Daily Princetonian, 57
Dartmouth-Princeton football game, 56–59
data interpretation, 63–64, 181n
D-Day, 208
debating, 168–69
decision groups (truthseeking groups), 124–27, 188, 205, 206, 225
accountability in, 129, 130, 135–37
accuracy in, 129, 130, 132–34, 136, 139
charters for, 128–31, 133, 150, 157
communicating with world beyond, 172–76
debating in, 168–69
diversity of viewpoints in, 137–41
rules of engagement for, 150–51, 154–55; see also CUDOS
social approval in, 132–34
tilt and, 199–200
consequences of, 179–80
moving regret in front of, 186–89
in poker, 116, 167, 179, 180, 188, 196–98
decision swear jar, 204–7
deliberative mind, 12–14, 16, 181n, 183, 186
Dershowitz, Alan, 32
Des Moines, Iowa, 37–43, 46, 48, 62, 66, 79, 135
detail, 158–59
devil’s advocate, 170–71
disinformation, 60
disinterestedness, 154, 155, 164–69
dissent, 128, 137, 139–40, 143, 145, 148, 160, 169–73, 212, 225
diversity of opinions, 60–61, 129–30, 137–42, 145, 147–48, 150, 171, 172n, 211, 225
dog-to-human age ratio, 49, 50, 53
Doubleday, Abner, 53
Dreber, Anna, 149
Duarte, José, 146
Duhigg, Charles, 106–7, 109, 115
Dyson, Freeman, 243n
Dyson, George, 243n
Easterbrook, Frank, 227–29
echo chambers, 128–29, 141, 144–45, 206
Eli Lilly, 150
Ellis Island, 53
emotions, 191, 194–96, 198–200
employees, 48
Epstein, Theo, 100
evolution, 11–13, 51–52, 64, 110
natural selection in, 91n–92n, 103
experience:
learning and, 78–80, 82, 88, 89, 91, 93–95
processing of, 57–59
experts, 28, 78–79, 149–50, 158–59
exploratory thought, 128–29, 134
extinct species, 67–68
Facebook, 61
fake news, 60
false positives and false negatives, 12, 52
feedback, 78–82
Fey, Tina, 250n
Feynman, Richard, 72n, 156, 166, 170
filter bubble, 61
FiveThirtyEight.com, 6, 32, 230, 245n
flat tire, 190–91, 194–96, 200
Florida Marlins, 98–100
fat in, 54–55, 62, 85–86, 164–65
football, 159
Super Bowl, 5–7, 10, 22, 46, 48, 165–66, 216–18, 241n–42n
Foreign Service, 139–40
FoxSports.com, 6
Freedom of Information Act, 157
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, 185
free press and free speech, 156
future, 46, 79–81, 88, 174, 178
age-progression software and, 184–87
backcasting from, 218–22, 225, 226
negative, working backward from, 221–26
reconnaissance and, 207–12, 218
retirement planning and, 182, 184–86, 203
scenario planning and, 209–18
see also outcomes; time travel, mental
negotiated settlements in, 40
slot machines, 87–88
see also poker
game theory, 19–21, 23, 242n, 243n
General Electric, 150
generalized characterizations, 205
Gibney, Alex, 99
adjusting, 226
working backward from, 220–24
Gonzalez, Alex, 100
grain bin explosion, 228–29
grant prospecting, 213–15, 217–18
gratification, immediate or delayed, 182n, 226
Green Bay Packers, 159
Grey, David, 135
groups:
for decision making and truthseeking, see decision groups
reasoning styles in, 128–29
groupthink, 128
habits, 105–11, 115, 117, 133, 134, 160, 188
Haidt, Jonathan, 104, 129–30, 145–46, 157
Half-Life of Facts, The (Arbesman), 67–68, 219
Hamm, Mia, 109
Hansen, Gus, 244n
individual moments and, 190–91, 193–94, 199
Happiness Hypothesis, The (Haidt), 104
Harvard Business Review, 96, 219
Hastorf, Albert, 57–58
Hearst, William Randolph, 60
Heider, Fritz, 89
Hellmuth, Phil, 90–91
Hennigan, John, 37–43, 48, 79, 135
Heterodox Academy, 146–49, 153, 172n
Hills, The, 119
hindsight bias, 10, 26, 212, 227–31
home buyers, 202
Howard, Ronald, 190n
Huxley, Aldous, 78–79
Ignorance: How It Drives Science (Firestein), 27
improvisation, 173–74, 207, 250n
beliefs and, 49–53, 55–56, 59–61, 66, 70, 94, 138–39
disinformation, 60
hidden and incomplete, 20–23, 25, 26, 33–35, 45, 81, 87, 158
processing of, 55, 59, 62, 123, 165
sharing of, 156–60
source of, 161
Institute for Advanced Study, 243n, 246n
intellectual property, 157
International Academy of Trial Lawyers (IATL), 93
investments, 44–45, 191–93, 195, 196, 203
IQ, 147
Ira the Whale, 135
irrationality, see rationality and irrationality
Ivey, Phil, 105–6, 108, 112, 116n
JAMA Internal Medicine, 164
Jenner, Brody, 120
Jentz v. ConAgra Foods, 228–29
jobs, 41–46
Johnson, Hollyn, 55
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 144
Journal of the American Medical Association, 55
Jussim, Lee, 146
Kable, Joe, 250n
Kahn, Herman, 243n
Kahneman, Daniel, 12, 14, 36, 52, 61, 181n
Katyal, Neal, 140
Kazmaier, Dick, 56–57
Kissinger, Henry, 243n
Klein, Gary, 219
Kluge: The Haphazard Evolution of the Human Mind (Marcus), 12–13, 52
Kubrick, Stanley, 19
Kurosawa, Akira, 157
Late Show with David Letterman, 119–21, 123, 125, 161, 171, 175, 205
lawyers, 28–29, 93, 110, 167, 202, 221, 222
learning, 2–3, 67, 77–78, 80, 82, 105, 108, 110, 113, 115, 116, 169, 173, 231
from experience, 78–80, 82, 88, 89, 91, 93–95
poker and, 78
Lederer, Howard, 1–2, 101–2, 106, 123–24, 133–34, 161–62, 244n
Lederer, Richard, 90n
Letterman, David, 119–21, 123, 125, 161, 171, 175, 205, 248n
Life of Lucullus (Plutarch), 160
Lombardi, Vince, 159
loss aversion, 36
low-fat diet, 54–55, 62, 85–86, 164–65
luck, 4, 7, 10, 11, 21, 22, 34, 35, 46, 79–80, 82, 86–92, 94–98, 101, 102, 110, 111, 113, 121, 123, 124, 129–31, 194, 205
skill vs., 82–85
Ludwig, David, 54–55
Lyubomirsky, Sonja, 104
Madden, John, 159
Maddon, Joe, 100
Magriel, Paul, 244n
Marshmallow Test, 181n–82n
Mauboussin, Michael, 83n
Maxwell, James Clerk, 27
Medical Daily, 49
mental contrasting, 223
Merrill Edge, 185
Merton, Robert C., 153
Merton, Robert K., 151, 153–55
Meserve, Russell, 62
Microsoft, 150
Mill, John Stuart, 137, 140, 163, 169
Mischel, Walter, 181n–82n
misconceptions, common, 49
Mitchell, Deborah, 219
Monday Morning Quarterback, 7, 8, 229
Montag, Heidi, 119–20
Morris, Benjamin, 6
motivated reasoning, 59–61, 63–64, 94, 102, 108, 115, 132, 136, 181n, 206
MTV, 119–21
Müller-Lyer illusion, 14–15
Myerson, Roger, 19–20
nails, 197
narratives, 60–62, 95–96, 105, 107–9, 157, 160
Nash, John, 19
National Medal of Science, 154
National Science Foundation, 1
natural selection, 91n–92n, 103
Nature, 166
negotiated settlements, 40, 202
New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 164, 165
New England Patriots, 5–7, 48, 216–18
New York, 218–20
Nick the Greek, 75–78, 84, 87, 90, 116
Nietzsche, Friedrich, 186, 187, 189
Night Jerry and Morning Jerry, 180–87
Nobel Prize, 12, 19–20, 36, 153, 166, 243n–44n
Normandy landings, 208
obesity and weight gain, 55, 85–86, 164
Odysseus, 200–201
Oettingen, Gabriele, 223–24
Olmsted, Frederick Law, 220
On Liberty (Mill), 137
Operation Overlord, 208
optimism, 226
outcomes, 78–82, 86, 88, 95, 108, 113–14, 134, 166–68, 175, 226, 231
blindness to, 166–67
fielding, 82–85, 87, 89–91, 95, 103, 105, 111–15, 121, 194, 195, 205
negative, preparing for, 189, 226
see also future
Pariser, Eli, 61
and moving regret in front of decisions, 186–89
see also time travel, mental
Pennington, Nancy, 219
perspective, 227
Pfizer, 150
physics, 166
pinball, 198
Pleasure of Finding Things Out, The (Feynman), 72n
Plutarch, 160
poker, 1–4, 7, 15–18, 28, 30–31, 33, 35, 37–38, 43, 47, 66–67, 75, 81–82, 90–91, 101–3, 105–6, 111, 115, 116, 123–24, 129, 167, 219, 231
belief formation and, 53
decisions in, 116, 167, 179, 180, 188, 196–98
diversity of opinions and, 139
learning and, 78
long hours of playing, 188–89
napkin list of hands in, 101–2, 161–62
possible futures and, 211
scoreboard in, 196
seminars on, 167
six and seven of diamonds in, 53, 59–60, 121
strategic plans and long view in, 179, 180, 200
strategy group for, 124, 126–27, 131, 133–34, 136–37, 155, 167, 174
suited connectors in, 53–54
Texas Hold’em, 53
tilt in, 197–98
time constraints in, 179
tournaments, 241n
watching in, 97
workshopping in, 158–59
political beliefs, 63–64, 141–45, 162–63, 205
social psychologists and, 145–47
Pollan, Michael, 85
Powell, Justice, 143
Power of Habit, The (Duhigg), 106–7
Pratt, Spencer, 119–20
precommitments (Ulysses contracts), 200–203, 212, 221
decision swear jar, 204–7
Predictably Irrational (Ariely), 89n
prediction markets, 149–50
premortems, 221–26
president-firing decision, 8–11, 33, 43, 48, 158, 229–30
presidential election of 2016, 32–33, 61n, 230–31, 245n
Princess Bride, The, 23–26, 244n
Princeton Alumni Weekly, 57
Princeton-Dartmouth football game, 56–59
Prisoner’s Dilemma (Poundstone), 19, 246n
privacy, 157
Prospect Theory, 36
Prudential Retirement, 185
Pulitzer, Joseph, 60
p-values, 72
Rashomon, 157
Rashomon Effect, 157–58
rationality and irrationality, 11, 43, 51, 64, 181n, 183, 204
Ulysses contracts and, 201, 203
words, phrases, and thoughts that signal irrationality, 204–7
rats, 87
Reese, Chip, 244n
reflexive mind, 12–14, 16, 181n
Rehnquist, Justice, 143
Reiner, Rob, 244n
relationships, 195, 196, 199, 223
Reproducibility Project: Psychology, 149–50
Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation (Oettingen), 223
Righteous Mind, The: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion (Haidt), 129–30
risk, 20, 34, 39, 42–44, 46–47, 66, 111, 179
Roberts, Justice, 143
Russo, J. Edward, 219
scenario planning, 209–18
schadenfreude, 102–3
Schwarzenegger, Arnold, 213
science, 67–68, 72, 147, 149–51, 154–55
bias and, 166
sharing in, 155–56
Seattle Seahawks, 5–7, 22, 46, 48, 216–18
Seattle Times, 6
Seed, Huckleberry, 244n
Seidel, Erik, 3, 123–24, 130–31, 244n, 248n
Seifert, Colleen, 55
Seinfeld, Jerry, 180–87
self-compassion, 206
self-expression, 156
self-image and self-deception, 89, 123
Selfish Gene, The (Dawkins), 92n
self-narratives, see narratives
self-serving bias, 89–96, 102, 103, 108, 110–12, 115, 132, 136, 194
settlements, negotiated, 40, 202
Shepperd, James, 95n
Shermer, Michael, 11–12
shooting the messenger or message, 160–64, 205
Siemens, 150
Silver, Nate, 32–33, 209–10, 230, 245n
skepticism, 154, 155, 169–71, 206, 224
skill, 7, 9, 48–49, 88–91, 94–96, 103, 111, 113, 121, 122
luck vs., 82–85
Skinner, B. F., 246n
Slate.com, 6
slot machines, 87–88
Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 95n
social approval, 132–34
social psychologists, 145–47
social scientists, 172n
sociology, 154
Sotomayor, Justice, 144
sports, 108–9
baseball, see baseball
football, see football
Stanford Law Review, 58
Stanford University, 181n–82n, 185
Stanovich, Keith, 62
statistics and data interpretation, 63–64, 181n
Stockholm School of Economics, 149
stock tickers, ticker watching, 191–93, 196, 199, 200
strategic thinking, 211
Stumbling on Happiness (Gilbert), 50, 52, 104
Success Equation, The: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (Mauboussin), 83n
suited connectors, 53–55
Sunstein, Cass, 141–42
Super Bowl, 5–7, 10, 22, 46, 48, 165–66, 216–18, 241n–42n
Supreme Court, 142–44
surfers, 197
swear jar, decision, 204–7
sweeping terms, 205
Syria, 140
System 1 and System 2, 12, 181n, 183, 203
Teller, Edward, 243n
temporal discounting, 181–83, 226
10-10-10 process, 188–89, 191, 199
Tetlock, Phil, 126n, 128–29, 132, 146
Texas Hold’em, 53
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann and Morgenstern), 19
“They Saw a Game: A Case Study” (Hastorf and Cantril), 56–59
Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 12, 52
Thomas, Justice, 144
Thoreau, Henry David, 186
ticker watching, 191–93, 196, 199, 200
tilt, 197–200
Time, 56
Timecop, 177–78
time travel, mental, 176, 177–231
decision swear jar, 204–7
flat tire scenario and, 190–91, 194–96, 200
moving regret in front of decisions, 186–89
Night Jerry and Morning Jerry, 180–87
perspective and, 227
premortems, 221–26
temporal discounting, 181–83, 226
10-10-10 process, 188–89, 191, 199
tilt and, 197–200
and time as tree, 227–31
Ulysses contracts (precommitment), 200–203
see also future; past
Today, 7
Trivers, Robert, 91n–92n
Trump, Donald, 32–33, 140, 230–31, 245n
truthseeking, 55, 70, 108, 110, 112, 115, 117, 120–23, 125, 126, 147, 150–51, 156–57, 172, 204, 207
accountability and, 176
agreement to engage in, 174
communication and, 172
truthseeking groups, see decision groups
Tulving, Endel, 178n–79n
tumors, 197
Tversky, Amos, 36
Twain, Mark, 144n
Twitter, 148
type I and type II errors, 12, 52
Ulysses contracts, see precommitments
uncertainty, 20, 26–30, 36, 47, 67–73, 80, 87, 94, 115, 139, 170, 230, 231
denial of, 206
hidden and incomplete information, 20–23, 25, 26, 33–35, 45, 81, 87
illusion of certainty, 204, 206, 207
luck, see luck
universalism, 154, 155, 160–64, 173, 205
University of Pennsylvania, 1
USA Today, 5
visual illusions, 14–15, 64, 91
von Braun, Wernher, 243n
von Neumann, John, 18–20, 23, 90, 243n, 246n
Wall Street Journal, 32
Washington Post, 6
weight gain and obesity, 55, 85–86, 164
weight loss, 221–23
Welch, Suzy, 188
Welles, Orson, 60
West, Richard, 62
White Castle, 135
Wilson, Russell, 5, 48, 218, 227
Woodward, Bob, 143
World Poker Tour, 37
World Series, Bartman play and, 98–100, 114, 229, 247n
World Series of Poker (WSOP), 1, 2, 37, 90–91, 106, 123n–24n, 248n
“Would You Rather” game, 104–5
wrong, being, 61, 71, 94, 114, 206, 245n
fear of being or suggesting, 172–73
“yes, and . . .,” 173–74, 207, 250n
Zolotow, Steve, 248n