CHAPTER 12

Welcome to Our
Low-Carbon Future

There is no high-carbon future.

—Lord Peter Mandelson, former secretary of state for business, enterprise, and regulatory reform, United Kingdom

Outside Madison Square Garden in the heart of New York City, visitors are dwarfed by a seven-story sign designed by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and paid for by Deutsche Bank. With a whir of numbers in a vast digital readout, the sign—the world's largest “carbon counter”—offers a real-time running total of the cumulative number of metric tons of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere worldwide. As of this writing, the count stands at 3.69 trillion metric tons, the highest level of atmospheric carbon in 800,000 years. Worse yet, the numbers whirring on the counter show that carbon dioxide is being added to Earth's atmosphere at the rate of 800 tons per second.

The giant carbon counter is, of course, a public relations effort designed to raise awareness of global warming. It is certainly frightening to consider the pace at which carbon is building up, and the sign effectively conveys the feeling of a ticking time bomb for the planet.

Unfortunately, although the numbers are scientifically accurate, the huge carbon counter's effect is ultimately a lot like that of many media accounts of global warming: at once frightening and disempowering. Dwarfed by the gargantuan sign, visitors standing idly by it on the sidewalk seem to epitomize the feelings of impotence so many of us have about global warming. With carbon accumulating at such an unimaginably fast rate, it seems as if we are helpless to change the situation.

As this book has attempted to show, however, nothing could be further from the truth. By taking some of the steps outlined in these pages—in our own lives, in our communities, and as citizens—each of us can make a significant difference. In fact, we already are.

Across the country and around the world, people are mobilizing to use energy more efficiently and to generate it from clean, renewable sources. To be sure, the fight against global warming is a steep uphill battle. As the sign shows, carbon continues to build up in the atmosphere at a rapid rate. And temperature increases in the next few decades will be determined largely by our past emissions of heat-trapping gases. So we are going to experience some additional warming no matter what steps we take today. Global population growth and rapid increases in development in countries such as India and China mean higher global energy demands, many of which continue to be met by burning fossil fuels.

What is striking to note, though, is the rate at which investments in and development of renewable energy are growing. Big changes are underway, and their pace is accelerating.

What we need next to New York's carbon counter is another readout, one that depicts the cumulative effect of people's emissions reductions around the world to help us better chart the extent to which we are bending the curve, starting to slow the pace at which carbon is building up in the atmosphere. This sign would document the explosion in green building that is locking in energy efficiency for decades to come in homes, offices, and factories worldwide. It would capture the benefits from automobile emissions standards now in place in the United States and Europe and fuel efficiency standards working to cut vehicle fuel use in China, Japan, and South Korea. And, equally important, the sign would chart the growth of clean, renewable sources of energy. It would show that in 2009 alone the world added some 80 gigawatts—80 million kilowatts—of zero-carbon, renewable electricity capacity. To put that in perspective, U.S. coal plants have a collective capacity of around 335 gigawatts. Even though wind and solar facilities are more variable in their energy output than coal plants, in this one year alone the world built enough new renewable generating capacity to replace nearly one in every 10 of the United States’ polluting coal-fired power plants. And the pace of growth of renewable sources of energy continues to accelerate.

Not counting hydroelectric dams, renewable energy sources now produce just 3 percent of the world's electricity. Clearly, much more needs to be done. China, for instance, continues build new coal-fired plants and to rely on coal for at least three-quarters of its electricity. The good news, though, is how quickly the share of nonhydropower renewables is growing. Solar photovoltaics connected to the electric grid still make up a small piece of the overall picture, but the trajectory of their growth is particularly dramatic, with generating capacity increasing by roughly 60 percent per year. In fact, worldwide photovoltaic generating capacity has risen 100-fold since 2000. Wind energy, too, is expanding at a rapid rate, with cumulative capacity doubling in the past three years alone.

In other words, while we still have far to go, a huge global transition has begun—one of the biggest ever—and each of us can play a role in ensuring that the momentum continues to build.

The task is undoubtedly urgent; there is no time to spare. Given the climate effects already underway, most assessments consider the coming decade to be crucial for dramatically lowering our carbon emissions to avoid the most destabilizing effects to our climate. Worse yet, there are many forces—especially those who profit most from business as usual—trying to slow down or stop the changes we need to make for a healthy and prosperous future.

Still, while the stakes are undeniably high and timetable is tight, don't bet against humanity's capacity to mobilize and change. History is filled with examples of large and often swift changes, even in the energy field. You don't have to look any further than the story of whale oil.

UCS Climate Team FAST FACT

Not counting hydropower, renewable energy sources now produce just 3 percent of the world's electricity, but the share is growing fast. Solar photovoltaics connected to the electric grid still make up a small piece of the overall picture, but their growth is particularly dramatic, increasing in generating capacity at roughly 60 percent per year. In fact, worldwide photovoltaic generating capacity has increased 100-fold since 2000.

Whaling was once an enormous multinational enterprise. From the 1700s through the mid-1800s, the blubber of hundreds of thousands of whales was boiled down into oil to be burned in the lamps that lighted much of the Western world. Whaling grew to be the fifth-largest industry in the United States. At its height in 1846, the U.S. whaling fleet included more than 700 ships; in that era some 8,000 whales were slaughtered annually, producing upward of 18 million gallons of whale oil.

In its day, whaling spawned dazzling fortunes. Coastal New England is still dotted with opulent captains’ houses that amply illustrate the riches the industry brought to a few. Like the oil industry today, whaling was an entrenched and seemingly permanent source of energy in its time. And then, in the second half of the 1800s, whale oil was quickly displaced by kerosene and soon thereafter by the electric light.

The point, of course, is that the sources of the energy we depend on have changed rapidly before, and they can—and will—change again. While it is often hard to see around the technological corner, there is almost no doubt that we are at the start of a dramatic shift in the way we produce and use energy. The only remaining question is whether we can make this transition quickly enough to avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change. It won't be easy; the challenge we face is enormous. But we have ample evidence that with a concerted effort we can make great changes. And, to at least some extent, how much and how fast we can bend the curve depends on you.

Glimpsing the Future

What will our daily lives look like several decades from now if we tackle global warming today? As we have noted earlier, you don't need to imagine some high-tech sci-fi scenario. Very likely, the landscape will seem remarkably familiar. Our houses and offices will look largely the same, but they will be retrofitted for greater energy efficiency. Our home appliances will do much the same jobs they do today but will use far less electricity. The goods we buy will be produced much more efficiently, using many more reused and recycled components.

The biggest piece of the transformation will happen behind the scenes, in the ways our energy is produced. Most of it will come from clean, renewable sources. Many homes and commercial buildings will be heated and cooled by geothermal systems buried beneath the ground, or by solar collectors mounted on roofs, or wind turbines dotting rural landscapes or sited offshore.

Our communities will be retrofitted, too. More of us will live in urban centers, but even in densely populated areas, green spaces will be designed into courtyards, urban pedestrian ways, and rooftops to help combat the “heat island” effects of city living and contend with runoff from the heavier storms expected in a warmer world. Many of our suburbs will be transformed into walkable, bikeable mixed-use communities with parks, shops, schools, and other local services more closely integrated into residential areas.

We will still drive cars, but the close-knit structure of our communities, along with a robust and efficient mass transit system, will reduce our dependence on them, allowing us to spend less time stuck in traffic and more time with our family and friends. When we do drive, our cars, most likely electric, will be far more energy efficient and will deliver or even improve upon the performance and safety we've grown to expect. And for longer-distance travel, energy-efficient high-speed rail will link major cities, minimizing the need for most short and intermediate-length airplane flights.

Here's the most amazing thing about this scenario: the future it describes is within our reach today. We already have many of the tools we need to make it happen. And if we invest wisely in R&D, we will surely develop new, cleaner and more efficient technological tools that can speed us to a low-carbon future even more quickly. As this book has shown, the first steps we take toward this future will often save us money, and the next steps will not cost a lot.

Continuing to ignore global warming, however, will cost us dearly. We simply can't wait any longer for someone else to fix the problem for us. If we take the necessary steps now, we can give our grandchildren a strong foundation upon which to build further solutions.

In fact, if we are successful, our grandchildren will think very differently about the many ways we wasted energy and the carbon emissions we tolerated. Burning fossil fuel in our basements to heat our homes or at big plants to power our hair dryers may seem about as antiquated to them as the notion of lighting homes with whale oil sounds to us today.

Making It Happen

Can we accomplish the transition to a low-carbon society? Of course we can. The world is experiencing some of the effects of global warming already, so we need to move fast. But to a surprising extent, in some parts of the world, the changes are already well underway. Take Denmark, for instance.

In 1973, Denmark relied on oil for 80 percent of its electricity. That year OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) put an embargo on oil exports, creating debilitating shortages and skyrocketing prices. Like much of the rest of the world, Denmark began to invest in energy efficiency and alternative sources of energy to reduce its reliance on oil. But in the 1980s, oil prices dropped and most countries went back to their old ways. Denmark, however, stayed the course. Today, the primary power plant serving Copenhagen is almost three times as efficient as the typical U.S. coal plant, and nonhydropower renewables alone supply 29 percent of Denmark's electricity.

As a result, during the past 25 years, while the Danish economy has grown by roughly 75 percent, the country has still cut its carbon emissions in half. Much of that reduction has been accomplished through aggressive energy efficiency efforts and the installation of wind turbines, which now provide a clean, local zero-carbon source for roughly 20 percent of the country's electricity.

Denmark is not alone. Sweden now gets some 56 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources. China has doubled its existing wind power capacity in each of the past five years. Many proponents of the status quo try to portray renewable sources of energy as some kind of fringe “alternative,” but more and more, these sources are becoming the backbone of the world's electricity-generating system. Consider that if we include hydropower and biomass sources, renewable energy worldwide constituted one-quarter of global power capacity in 2009, delivering 18 percent of the planet's electricity. That's more electricity than was generated in that year by many well-established sources of electricity—such as by all the world's nuclear power plants combined. In some countries, the change is even more pronounced. In Germany, for example, which has been a leader in the renewable energy field for a decade, more than 300,000 people are currently employed in renewables industries, almost as many as in Germany's largest sector, the automotive industry.

The current growth of wind power is one of the clearest signs of the change now underway. In both Europe and the United States, wind power accounted for 39 percent of all new electricity-generating capacity in 2009—more than any other generating technology—for the second year in a row. To give just one of many surprising examples, the state of Iowa now generates more than 15 percent of its electricity from wind. A quick look at the graph gives a sense of the gale force of new wind power installations over the past decade. There is no doubt that the rapid pace of global warming means we need to move quickly to achieve a clean energy future. And while renewables are growing, they have yet to make enough inroads in avoiding the planet's heavy dependence on fossil fuels. But the good news is that with this kind of wind at our backs, we are already on the way. And the steps you take to reduce your energy usage—including the effort to make that initial 20 percent reduction in emissions this year—can move us along even faster.

UCS Climate Team FAST FACT

Denmark, which relied on oil for almost all of its electricity as recently as 1973, now gets some 29 percent from wind and other clean, renewable sources. Denmark is not alone: Sweden already gets some 56 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources, and many other countries are on track to meet aggressive targets for installing new renewable capacity over the next decade.

Figure 12.1. Wind Power, Existing World Capacity, 1996–2009

The number of installed wind turbines around the world is growing at an exponential rate. Worldwide generating capacity from wind power doubled in the past three years, as represented on this graph.

Source: REN21, 2010.

The point to remember is that these kinds of changes don't just happen by themselves. Important steps toward a low-carbon future are made up of decisions by government officials at the national, state, and local levels and by investors, community leaders, and—most important of all—by actively engaged citizens working together.

As we have discussed for each of the sectors we've reviewed—from transportation to the stuff we buy—success in reducing emissions requires a three-part strategy:

1. Saving energy by using less of it and using it more efficiently, these being the simplest and most cost-effective ways to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal and oil
2. Building new renewable energy capacity by installing zero-carbon technologies such as wind turbines, photovoltaic solar panels, and geothermal heat pumps
3. Investing in research and development to create the technological innovations that will lead us to even cleaner and more efficient energy and transportation solutions

You have an important role to play in each of these steps: first by making some smarter climate choices at home and then by sharing your vision with others in widening circles of influence. With more and more citizens getting involved, a massive shift has already begun, and its effects are starting to be felt in communities across the United States and around the world. You can get started right now with our individualized online tool at www.coolersmarter.org.

As citizens in a democratic society, we can break our addiction to fossil fuels, stave off the worst of global warming, and take our country in a different direction. Working together, we can step back from the brink of ecological disaster and move toward a more sustainable balance between the natural world and human civilization, ensuring a healthier planet for our children and grandchildren.

To succeed, we need to work from the top down and from the bottom up. We won't finish the work this year or this decade, but with your concerted efforts, we can work toward a low-carbon future and greatly reduce the consequences of global warming. It is inspiring, hopeful, and urgent work.

Welcome aboard.