Whitehall, London
‘MICROCHIPS.’ ZARA SIMMONS pronounced the word slowly, as if she were addressing a small child. ‘Mi-cro-chips.’ She repeated the word, looking up and down the rows of faces in the COBRA meeting room as she did so. Britain’s youthful National Security Adviser was not everyone’s cup of tea. Her direct and sometimes patronizing approach had ruffled quite a few feathers in Cabinet since her appointment. That didn’t bother her one bit. She knew her brief, she had the ear of the PM, and when it came to China they were on exactly the same page.
‘We ask ourselves why should we care about Taiwan? Well, the answer is simple: microchips. Some of you might know them as semiconductors. Or “integrated circuits”. They’re pretty much the same thing. But what matters is what they do and where they come from. So let’s cut straight to the chase here.’ She pressed the palms of her hands together, as if in prayer. ‘Almost everything we rely on in our modern, daily lives depends on these microchips. The car that brought you here? It uses microchips. The smartphone you handed in at the door? Microchips. The laptop you carry around with you? Microchips. The satellite that’s beaming those pictures we’ve just been looking at from the Taiwan Strait? Microchips. And those are just the items for civilian use. When it comes to our national defence, our missiles, our computer systems, our satellites, we are completely reliant on an uninterrupted, free-flowing supply of these semiconductors. Which brings us to Taiwan.’
She glanced across to the PM, who nodded for her to go on.
‘And, yes,’ said Zara Simmons, ‘you’ve guessed it. Around 90 per cent of the world’s high-end microchips are produced on the island that China is so keen to get its hands on. Because only Taiwan has the technology to refine the production of these semiconductors down to just three nanometres or less. That’s three billionths of a metre. It is infinitesimally small and not even China can match that to the same standard. So let’s just think for a moment of what would happen if China made good on its promise to “take back” Taiwan.’
She paused for effect, watching the reactions around the room. Some of the people at the table, mostly men, were nearly twice her age, but she could see she had their attention.
‘Well, I’ll tell you the first thing that would happen if there were war. Taiwan’s production of these semiconductors would almost certainly come to an immediate halt. That would cause a worldwide shortage, leading to soaring inflation and massive problems in the supply chain for dozens of industries that we depend on in our daily lives. It would do vastly more damage to our economy than Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Put simply, it would cripple it.’
Again, a nod from the PM for her to continue.
‘But let’s suppose that in the event of war over Taiwan the most valuable production centre for these microchips – that’s the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the TSMC – does not get destroyed. And I hear there are plenty of people in Taiwan who think the company’s premises would be the safest place to hide if hostilities broke out. What then? If China were able to overwhelm Taiwan’s defences or force a surrender by choking it off from the outside world, we’d be looking at a situation in which Beijing controls the entire world’s production of high-end microchips. Can you picture that? They would have us over a barrel.’
The National Security Adviser stopped to take a sip of water. She hadn’t quite finished. ‘So that’s just the microchips dimension. We haven’t even touched on the geo-political and the strategic. Anyone want to hazard a guess at how much trade passes through the South China Sea each year? … Well, I’ll tell you. Three trillion dollars’ worth. That’s right, three trillion dollars. That’s more than this country’s entire GDP.’
The more observant in the room picked up on the fact that Zara Simmons was blatantly copying the PM’s habit here: asking the room a question out loud and answering it herself. But nobody interrupted her.
‘China,’ she continued, ‘has already grabbed a whole slew of islands and reefs in the South China Sea that are nowhere near its own coast. It’s concreted them over, built landing strips and missile bases, and claimed them all for its own, despite an international tribunal declaring it illegal in 2016. It’s even had the gall to publish what it calls its “standard map”, laying claim to practically the entire sea, plus Taiwan.’
Another pause, another sip of water and a quick gesture to an aide to fetch her a refill.
‘What do we think the effect will be,’ she continued, ‘for our friends and allies in the region, if Beijing is able to get away with invading and occupying a successful, pro-Western democracy like Taiwan? It would mean a catastrophic defeat for the US – and, by extension, this country – that would put the West’s humiliating exit from Afghanistan in 2021 in the shade. It would embolden every autocratic and authoritarian state in the world and send a message that the free world was no longer prepared to defend its interests or indeed the rules-based international order.’
The PM’s arms had been folded all the time he was listening to her. They had already gone through together what she would say in this COBRA meeting. Now she had finished he unfolded them, stood up and addressed the room. ‘Right, then,’ he said. ‘I don’t think there can be any dispute about it. Taiwan matters. With our allies in the region – Japan, South Korea, Australia – we simply cannot allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by the People’s Republic of China or we shall find ourselves dancing to Beijing’s tune for the next forty years. Does anyone have any questions?’