12. Climate Change
Aerosols—Tiny droplets or particles capable of affecting global warming. When I was writing this book, much remained to be understood about them. [For one case, see “About Sulfur,” II:26.]
Carbon dioxide—“Release . . . from stationary and mobile combustion processes is far and away the principal” GHG, “. . . accounting for 87.9% of greenhouse gas emissions.” “The most important GHG by far is CO2, accounting for 82% of total EU-28 emissions in 2012 excluding LULUCF.”
Carbon equivalents—Some sources “may present CO2 emissions in tonnes of carbon instead of tonnes of CO2. To convert from tonnes of carbon, multiply by 44/12, which is the molecular weight ratio of CO2 to C.” In other words, the O2 gets deducted. For molecular weight [or formula weight], see mole, p. 596.
Carbonic acid—H2CO3. “The acid assumed to be formed when carbon dioxide is dissolved in water; its salts are termed carbonates. The name is also given to the neutral carbon dioxide from its power of forming salts with oxides . . .” And this, of course, is the agent of ocean acidification. [See CO3−, here.]
CFCs—Chlorofluorocarbons, used as refrigerants, low-viscosity cleaning agents for semiconductors, and “blowing agents” in the production of styrofoam-like substances. In the upper stratosphere, CFCs get broken down by ultraviolet radiation into chlorine atoms, each of which can attack 10,000 ozone molecules. (CFCs also absorb infrared rays and therefore cause temperature increases. But global warming was not then widely acknowledged by governments.) Alarm over the ozone hole above Antarctica led to an attempt to limit CFC levels. This effort was the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. This had 24 signatories when it came into force on January 1, 1989; by July 1992, there were 81 signers. The strategy was to replace CFCs by HFCs and HCFCs. For CFCs, see here.
Climate—“The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Classically the period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. Climate in a wider sense also includes not just the mean conditions, but also the associated statistics (frequency, magnitude, persistence, trends, etc.) . . .”
Climate change—“Includes global warming as well as other long-term climatic effects.”
Climate change evidence—From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Global mean surface air temperatures over land and oceans have increased over the last 100 years [emphasis in original]. Temperature measurements . . . show a continuing increase in the heat content of the oceans. Analyses based on measurements of the Earth’s radiative budget suggest a small positive energy imbalance . . . Observations from satellites and in situ measurements show . . . significant reductions in . . . most land ice masses and in Arctic sea ice. The oceans’ uptake of CO2 is having a significant effect on the chemistry of sea water . . . [However:] Climate varies naturally . . . and quantifying precisely the nature of this variability is . . . characterized by considerable uncertainty.”
DOC—Degradable organic carbon. Calculated in greenhouse inventories.
Forcings (or “radiative forcings” = RF)—“Influences on global temperature,” both natural and manmade. Sometimes called “global warming forcings,” sometimes “climactic” or “radiative forcings.” As late as 2002, a weather and climate encyclopaedia could say: “It seems likely that natural changes in solar output may be the most important cause of climatic forcing, rather than the forecast changes in CO2 concentration.” A minus value indicates that something cools rather than warms. Often measured in watts per square meter, forcings will here be expressed in Carbon Ideologies’s default units, the BTUs per square foot.
1 watt per square meter = 0.00528 [= 5.288 × 10−3] BTU per minute per square foot
COOLING:
Aerosols: −0.00634 [BTUs/min/ft2]
Reflection of radiation into space: −0.0011
WARMING:
Waste heat from power plants, cars, air conditioners, electronic appliances, etc.: + 0.000148
Ozone: + 0.00159
(In the stratosphere, ozone can actually have a cooling effect.)
Radiative forcing from greenhouse gases × climate sensitivity (°C per W/m2)* = expected warming.
Carbon dioxide: + 0.00898
These are oldish numbers. As greenhouse gas concentrations increased, so did the forcing. Let me quote the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “The total anthropogenic ERF [effective radiative forcing, whose calculations “allow all physical variables to respond to perturbations except for those concerning the ocean and sea ice”] over the Industrial Era is 2.3 (1.1 to 3.3) W m−2. It is certain that the total anthropogenic ERF is positive. Total anthropogenic ERF has increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades . . . Due to increased concentrations, R[adiative] F[orcing] from W[ell-]M[ixed] G[reen]H[ouse] G[ases]s [q.v.] has increased [from] . . . 0.18 to 0.22 W m−2 (8%) since . . . 2005. The RF of WMGHG is 2.83 . . . W m−2 [= 0.0149 in our units]. The majority of this change . . . is due to increases in the carbon dioxide . . . RF of nearly 10%. The Industrial Era RF for CO2 alone is 1.82 . . . , and CO2 is the component with the largest global mean RF. Over the last decade RF of CO2 has an average growth rate of 0.27 . . . per decade. Emissions of CO2 have made the largest contribution to the increased anthropogenic forcing in every decade since the 1960s.”
In a letter to me, Dr. Pieter Tans of NOAA estimated that supposing “reckless” burning of fossil fuels, by the end of the 21st century “globally averaged climate forcing from CO2 alone would then be 3.7 W/m2, or ~1.5% of all radiation absorbed from the sun.” [No sub- or superscript in original.] In our units: RF = 0.0195.
Total greenhouse gases: + 0.0143 − 0.0153
Forcing from greenhouse gases × climate sensitivity (oC per W/m2) = expected warming.
Climate sensitivity = 0.5 to 1.2° C per W/m2
At the low value of 0.5, radiative forcing = 2.9 × 0.5 = a 1.4° C temperature increase. The average increase since the Industrial Revolution began in 1790 is 0.8°C; the other 0.6°C is delayed while lurking in our oceans.
The average increase since the Industrial Revolution began in 1790 is 0.8° C; the other 0.6° C is delayed while lurking in our oceans.
Freon—“A trade name for members of a group of aliphatic organic compounds containing the elements carbon and fluorine, and, in many cases, other halogens (especially chlorine) and hydrogen.” After the basic patent ended, they were called CFCs. But not all CFCs were Freons.
GHGs—Greenhouse gases (a standard abbreviation in inventories and reports).
Global warming—“Refers to surface-temperature increases.” In 2016 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency informed us: “The Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880. The last three decades have each been the warmest decade successively at the Earth’s surface since 1850.”
Global warming potential—“A quantified measure of the globally averaged relative radiative forcing impacts of a particular greenhouse gas.” More concretely, a “measure of how much [solar] energy . . . 1 ton of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the . . . 1 ton of carbon dioxide.” The reference period customarily equaled 100 years. Given the widely varying atmospheric lifetimes of various warming agents, this interval, like any other, made for distorting compromises. For instance, CO2 continues its forcing work for at least 2 millennia. Methane lasts a mere 12 years, after which much of it becomes CO2. Hence, while the 20-year GWP of methane measures something like 86, its 100-year GWP is only 21 or 26, in which case its 1,000-year GWP must be less than 1.
Greenhouse effect—“The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon necessary for life on earth—without it, the planet’s average temperature would be 0 degrees, instead of 60 degrees, Fahrenheit . . . To date, there is no agreement in the scientific community that global warming due to an accelerated greenhouse effect is either underway or likely in the near future.”—National Coal Association, 1993. A quarter-century later, the scientific community had reached agreement, but carbon ideologues did not care. For the Venusian case, see here and II:643n.
Greenhouse gases—These trap longwave radiation, thereby heating up the planet. The most baneful ones include but are not limited to: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur hexafluoride, and various halocarbons, CFCs, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. One powerful and often overlooked greenhouse gas is water vapor.
Halocarbons—“A collective term for the group of partially halogenated organic species, which includes the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), halons, methyl chloride and methyl bromide. Many of the halocarbons have large Global Warming Potentials. The chlorine and bromine-containing halocarbons are also involved in the depletion of the ozone layer.”
HCFCs—“The ideal CFC substitute must not harm the ozone layer, and must have a short atmospheric lifetime to ensure a low greenhouse warming potential (GWP).” So our chemists added a hydrogen atom, so that it could be “rapidly degraded to acids and CO2, which are both removed from the atmosphere by natural processes.” The notion of extra carbon dioxide and acid in our air is not especially pleasant, but from the standpoint of ozone conservation, HCFCs are an improvement. For instance, “the continued refrigeration use of HCFC-22 is based on its very low ozone depletion potential.” Moreover, this chemical’s GWP is “only” 5% of CFC-11’s—which, if I calculate correctly, makes it 200 times more dangerous than CO2. See here, here.
HFCs—“Halocarbons that contain only carbon, fluorine and hydrogen.” HCFCs contain the same plus chlorine. “Atmospheric HFC abundances are low and their contribution to RF is small relative to that of the CFCs and HCFCs . . . (less than 1% of the total by well-mixed GHGs . . .). As they replace CFCs and HCFCs phased out by the Montreal Protocol, however, their contribution to future climate forcing is projected to grow considerably in the absence of controls on global production.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—“Created by the W[orld] M[eterological] O[rganization] and the United Nations Environment Programme . . . back in 1988 . . . The leading international organization assessing climate change, its consequences, and our options concerning what to do about it.” Much of Carbon Ideologies relies on IPCC data.
International Energy Agency (IEA)—“Established in November 1974. Its primary mandate . . . is . . . two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research . . . on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy.” Carbon Ideologies sometimes makes use of IEA statistics.
Kyoto Protocol (or Accords)—A treaty requiring its signatories to inventory (in a consistent and “transparent” fashion) and begin to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and precursors. [My country’s President, who called himself “the decider,” pulled us out of the agreement.] It came into force in 2005 for more responsible nations, with the capability of adding to its scope by amendment. One such addition was nitrogen trifluoride.
Kyoto Gases [or “F Gases”]—All GHGs other than the main three (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide). These together produced 1.8% of Germany’s emissions in 2006.
LULUCF—“Land use, land use change and forestry.” This line item on early-21st-century greenhouse gas inventories referred to carbon sequestrations (or releases) as a result of clearing forest land, planting trees, etcetera. LULUCF could either release or sequester carbon.
Methane—Releases of this dangerous GHG (4.4% of Germany’s emissions in 2006) are “caused primarily by animal husbandry, fuel distribution and landfill emissions,” not to mention rice farming. For more on this substance, see II:307.
Mole—A fundamental unit of chemistry. [Abbr.: “mol.”] 1 mole of any substance = 6.023 × 1023 atoms [or, as the case may be, molecules], which corresponds to its atomic mass [or for a compound its formula weight] in grams. Chemical reactions take place according to molar ratios. Since the gram-atomic weight of carbon is 12 and that of oxygen is 16, 12 g of C contains the same number of atoms as 16 g of O, or 32 g of O2: in all three cases, 1 mole. One mole of carbon dioxide results from the combination of 1 mole of C atoms and 1 mole of O2 molecules [= 2 moles of O atoms]. Molar proportions find utility in climatology, as for instance in this letter to WTV from Dr. Pieter Tans of NOAA (May 2017), on carbon dioxide versus methane: “Now the CH4 CO2 [no subscripts in original] comparison. Using averages for U.S. power plants, 1 kWh of electricity takes the burning [of] 25 mol of carbon in coal to CO2, while it takes only 10.3 mol of CH4 to burn to 10.3 mol of CO2. Therefore 14.7 mol of CO2 are kept out of the atmosphere per kWh of electric power.” See also heat of combustion in section 2, here.
Precursors—Substances such as carbon monoxide, ozone or volatile organic compounds, whose indirect effects on warming are greater than their direct effects, mostly because they bring about the formation of tropospheric ozone.
Nitrous oxide—Another actively perilous GHG, whose releases (5.8% of Germany’s emissions in 2006) are “caused primarily by agriculture,” especially from fertilizers and manure-heaps, and by “industrial processes and transport,” such as automobile exhaust. “Since [2005] N2O has overtaken CFC-12 as the third largest contributor to R[adiative] F[orcing].” For CFCs see 174ff.
Social cost of carbon [SCC]—Monetized estimate of the damage done from asthma, coal mine cave-ins, ocean acidification, etcetera. “Typical range”: $50–$260 per ton of carbon dioxide. “We are all paying this SCC, whether we know it or not.” The genius of most energy companies was to get the future to pay it.
Temperature extremes (1998 figures):
World’s lowest temperature: Vostok, Antarctica, July 21, 1983:
−89° C = −129° F
World’s highest temperature: Aziza, Libya, September 13, 1922:
+58° C = 136° F
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs, or N[on] M[ethane] VOCs)—Certain hydrocarbon “pollutants that are volatile at ambient air conditions . . . Major contributors (together with NOx and CO) to the formation of photochemical oxidants such as ozone.” See Precursors above.
Well-mixed greenhouse gases—Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the halocarbons. At the time I wrote Carbon Ideologies, this group was accomplishing 99% of all global warming. “There are also several other substances that influence the global radiation budget but are short-lived and therefore not well-mixed. These substances include carbon monoxide . . . nitrogen dioxide . . . , sulfur dioxide . . . and tropospheric (ground level)” ozone. “Increasing atmospheric burdens of well-mixed GHS resulted in a 9% increase in their R[adiative] F[orcings] from 1998 to 2005.”
The risk-benefit analyses which hopefully justify this book’s existence depend on numbers. In “About Methane” (II:307) I placed a table called “Carbon Gas Emissions of Common Fuels.” Here is another table, with different sources; its values are (reassuringly) not too far off from those in that one.—In “Power and Climate” (here) I mentioned the 9 trillion BTUs required to furnish the American power grid with the electricity it needed at winter peak load capacity in 2013. Any number of fuels could have done that job; here are three, with nuclear glowing demurely at the end, just in case my reportage of Fukushima prejudiced you against that wonderful, wonderful option.
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS OF VARIOUS FUELS WHEN PRODUCING 2013 AMERICAN WINTER PEAK ELECTRICAL LOAD CAPACITY
[= 9 trillion BTUs, of which 6 trillion are wasted in the power plant]*
in multiples of natural gas’s
All levels expressed in [total pounds of CO2 discharged to yield 9 trillion BTUs].
1
Natural gas, MOSTLY METHANE [1.061 billion lbs total CO2]. 377.18 million lbs needed, at 23,861 BTUs/lb. 2.813 lbs CO2 per lb burned.*
1.40
Diesel [1.489 billion]. 467.53 million lbs needed, at 19,250 BTUs/lb. 3.184 lbs CO2 per lb burned.
1.67
Bituminous coal (West Virginia) [1.776 billion]. 720 million lbs needed, at 12,500 BTUs/lb. 2.466 lbs CO2 per lb burned.
0
Nuclear fuel [0]. 24.69 lbs needed, at 364.5 billion BTUs/lb. 0 lbs CO2 per lb burned.