The 9 a.m. meeting was held in the main SCIF on the DR floor of the Cat. Christophe Sturt was there, in his three-thousand-euro suit, allegedly made by Macron’s tailor. So was the DO director, Anthony Frasier, who looked at his watch as if he had a more important place to be. Marie Lafont, Lars Magnus, Dominic Briffaut and Alec de Payns rounded out the group, with Charlotte Rocard—Sturt’s 2IC—operating as a serial head nodder whenever her boss spoke.
Lafont talked through a brief version of the Istanbul events. When she’d concluded her precis, Sturt leaned on the oval table, making a steeple with his fingers. ‘The Russians missed, so where are we now?’
Lafont said, ‘Russia is massing on the Ukraine border and it’s exerting—’
‘I mean, where are we now in relation to what you put to us two weeks ago?’ Sturt broke in. ‘The Kremlin uses assassinations to effect regime change in Ukraine, and if that fails, Putin invades?’
Lafont deferred to Anthony Frasier, who took the question. ‘We had no choice but to stop the assassination attempt in Istanbul,’ he said. ‘The Kolomoisky equation isn’t just Ukraine—it’s also about Europe’s future gas supply and what it means for the French economy.’
‘What about the Americans?’ snapped Sturt. ‘Where do they fit in?’
‘We have a watch on them,’ said Briffaut. ‘Henry Krause has been released to the wild, and he’s now our source. His story about the think tanks checks out. The Americans seem to have founded the Tirol Council and the Ligurian Institute, but it’s much harder to prove that they run the output.’
‘Now we know where the Chinese got the idea,’ said Frasier.
‘Yes, Director,’ said Briffaut. ‘We’ve identified Krause’s handler—Christine Zeitz—but we can’t find her. And Zeitz has a handler who we can’t ID.’
‘If Krause is now working for us, why can’t we find Zeitz or the handler?’ Sturt demanded.
‘Krause is more like a delivery mechanism,’ said Marie Lafont. ‘He gets his messaging from a Proton Mail account, which he disseminates through his reports and meetings. The mail drops to the embassies were not a regular thing, according to him. We’re monitoring his comms but our disruption of the meeting in Paris has certainly burned that connection. It won’t be revived.’
‘Zeitz’s handler is in Paris,’ said Sturt, tapping the report with his index finger. ‘And attempting to manipulate us. Aren’t the Americans supposed to be allies?’
Lafont said, ‘The Americans have a plan for Europe’s energy and a plan for NATO and Ukraine. They have a right to pursue their interests, just as we do.’
Sturt nodded his agreement. ‘And the Kremlin?’
‘By now the Russians know we frustrated their attempt in Istanbul.’
‘So, they go to plan B?’
Frasier rolled his pen between his hands. ‘Have you seen the news about Russia on the Ukraine border?’
Lafont said, ‘Yes—our American friends are now going directly to the media rather than shopping it through the services and the embassies.’
‘So, Putin invades?’ Sturt asked.
Lafont caught a quick look from Frasier. ‘We’ve been looking at another scenario.’
‘Yes?’ prompted Sturt.
‘One of the al-Kaniyat shooters in Istanbul referred to his team as the “Europe group”,’ she explained. ‘We’re going back over the prod on Vulcan, and we’re open to the idea that “Hammer” might refer to a first action by Wagner Group, and “Anvil” might be a second.’
Sturt stared at Lafont as if looking upon a child’s poor report card. ‘A second action?’
‘Shit, Marie,’ said Frasier, leaning back in his chair and throwing his pen on the table.
Lafont looked over her half-glasses at the faces watching her intently. ‘We are looking in two directions. Western Libya was mentioned on Azzam, and especially Wagner Group’s support for General Haftar seizing the GNA gas infrastructure, notably Bouri and al Sharara.’
‘Makes sense,’ said Frasier. ‘That would mean Putin controls the pipeline into Italy.’
‘What’s the other scenario?’ asked Sturt.
‘Kolomoisky’s speech in Istanbul addressed the EastMed pipeline, which could take Israeli and Egyptian gas into Europe without going through the expensive LNG process. He mentioned the Pantheon gas field—it’s achieving first offtake this weekend.’
She clicked her remote. The lights dimmed as an offshore gas rig filled the screen at the northern end of the SCIF. ‘Lars, please talk us through it.’
‘The rig is called Pontus,’ said Magnus. ‘When producing at full capacity, it will be maybe the world’s sixth- or seventh-largest gas production facility, and a competitor to its next-door neighbour, the Israel-owned Leviathan.’
Lafont clicked to a picture of a rig and a floating processing facility, and then to one of a red gas-processing vessel, the IceMAX, that was going take gas off the Pontus rig.
‘Why would Putin allow Israel to develop Leviathan?’ asked Briffaut. ‘It ruins his gas racket.’
‘The gas is piped to Egypt and Israel; it’s not in the Europe market,’ said Magnus. ‘And the Russians are invested in Leviathan. Putin signed an agreement with Israel in 2015 for Gazprom to develop the field.’
Frasier grimaced. ‘Smart move. Like having the mafia invest in your restaurant.’
‘What about Pantheon?’ asked Sturt, scribbling notes on his pad. ‘What are the interests?’
‘Mainly Igor Kolomoisky,’ said Magnus. ‘He’s aligned with the Cypriot government, where he has citizenship. There’s American and French capital and a Canadian operator. They’ll use a floating production storage and offloading ship to take the gas to Italy or Israel, until the EastMed pipeline is operational.’
‘I’m guessing Putin doesn’t want Kolomoisky piping cheap Israeli gas to Europe?’
‘That’s about it,’ said Lafont. ‘Hence, a Libyan and Israeli scenario. It’s in the hands of the DO.’
All eyes turned to Briffaut, who nodded wearily, like a man who was accustomed to the ball bouncing back to him. ‘We’re on it. We’ll know when we know.’