2011: Harsh government suppression fans local demonstrations into a mass civil uprising and isolates the regime abroad.
March–June
Protesters in Dera’a demand the release of a dozen teenagers who have been arrested for anti-regime graffiti and tortured. Security forces open fire, killing several demonstrators. This escalates and radicalizes the demonstrations, which spread to Damascus, Homs, Idlib and other population centers. President Bashar al-Assad pursues a two-pronged strategy, promising political reform while overseeing harsh military crackdowns on the protests. In May, government tanks move against demonstrators in Dera’a and the suburbs of Damascus, as well as in Homs, which has become the center of the uprising. The opposition’s call for a national strike is largely ignored in Syria’s two most populous cities, Damascus and Aleppo. The following month sees government troops besiege the town of Jisr al-Shughour. The regime’s brutal suppression provokes increasing international condemnation and in May the US and EU impose sanctions.
July–October
In July, Syrian security forces reportedly kill more than 100 protesters in Hama. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declares that Assad has “lost legitimacy.” The crackdown pressures the Syrian opposition to become organized and militarized. Military defectors establish the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in July and in October, six months into the uprising, some opposition groups coalesce as the Syrian National Council (SNC). Its declared aim is to topple Assad within six months. The UN Security Council condemns “widespread violations of human rights and the use of force against civilians by the Syrian authorities,” but Russia and China veto a resolution threatening sanctions.
November–December
The Arab League suspends Syria and imposes sanctions. France calls for western military intervention, while Russia continues to arm the regime. Armed conflict between the FSA and regime soldiers is becoming the dominant dynamic on the ground, and in November the FSA launches a high-profile attack on a military base near Damascus. In December, two car bombs in Damascus kill 44 people—the opposition blames the regime, while the Syrian government and, later, US officials finger al-Qaeda. An Arab League observer mission enters Syria.
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2012: The conflict escalates to all-out civil war. Foreign assistance to both sides fuels the violence and adds proxy wars to the internal conflict.
January–April
The Arab League observer mission withdraws in January, citing increasing violence. The same month sees the birth of a new rebel military faction, the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front, and in a videotape released soon afterward al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri urges Sunni Muslims to support the Syrian revolt. In February, the UN General Assembly votes 137-12 for Assad to resign. Russia and China veto a similar resolution at the Security Council. The “Group of Friends of the Syrian People,” a collection of more than 60 (later rising to more than 100) countries and organizations including France, Britain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States, proclaims the SNC a “legitimate representative” of Syria. The EU announces new sanctions, while former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is appointed UN–Arab League Special Envoy to Syria. Government forces and the FSA contend for control in Homs, Damascus and other major cities. In April, the “Friends of Syria” pledge economic support for opposition forces, while Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states announce a new fund for the FSA. A ceasefire brokered by Annan does not stem the violence.
May–July
In May, the Security Council unanimously condemns the regime’s use of heavy weapons in Houla, which killed dozens of civilians in Houla. In July, the International Committee of the Red Cross declares the situation in Syria a civil war. Fighting is intense in Idlib, Damascus, Deir Ezzor, Homs, Hama and Dera’a. Battling for control in Damascus, rebel forces bomb the capital’s National Security HQ, killing and injuring several senior officials including the Defense Minister and Deputy Defense Minister. The US and UK announce new sanctions against regime officials, but China and Russia veto a Security Council Chapter VII resolution. Major fighting breaks out in Aleppo when opposition forces blow up the government security headquarters and occupy parts of the city. The Syrian Army and Air Force attack the rebel positions in Aleppo.
August–October
The Kurds now control much of a Kurdish-speaking belt in northeast Syria under an agreement with the Syrian government. An August UN General Assembly resolution denounces Assad’s use of heavy weaponry in Aleppo and Damascus. The regime suffers a few high-level defections. The UN pulls out of Aleppo due to increasing violence. An incompetent Kofi Annan resigns as international envoy, and is replaced by the veteran Algerian diplomat and former foreign minister, Lakhdar Brahimi. President Obama identifies the use of chemical or biological weapons as a “red line” that may trigger military action. In September, the FSA launches a major offensive in Aleppo; a month later, much of the city’s historic market and the ancient Omayyad Mosque are destroyed by fire and shelling. In October, Secretary of State Clinton dismisses the SNC as lacking a base inside the country and “no longer … the visible leader of the opposition.”
November–December
Syrian opposition groups, including the SNC, establish the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. In December, the US declares the Nusra Front a terrorist organization and accuses it of trying to “hijack” the uprising. Turkey refuses to classify Nusra as a terrorist group. The US accuses Assad of using Scud missiles, and joins Turkey, France, the UK and the Gulf states in formally recognizing the National Coalition as Syria’s legitimate representative. Heavy fighting sees opposition forces take control of most of the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus.
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2013: Jihadists increasingly dominate the opposition, as the regime regains the military initiative.
January–April
Assad rebuffs international demands to step down. Fighting continues in population centers across the country. After opposition forces capture the city of Raqqa in March, the US and UK promise non-military aid to the rebels. In April, the Syrian Army and Hezbollah launch a major offensive to retake the strategically crucial town of Qosair. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, self-proclaimed “emir” or prince of al-Qaeda in Iraq, claims responsibility for establishing the Nusra Front, and announces the groups’ merger as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). The leader of the Nusra Front and al-Qaeda’s al-Zawahiri reject the move.
May–August
The UN updates its estimate of the conflict death toll to 80,000, as the EU ends its embargo on arming the rebels. Government forces capture Qosair, a major strategic victory. The conflict continues to reverberate in Lebanon, where two rockets strike a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. Divisions within Syrian opposition forces widen, and in July ISIS assassinates two FSA commanders. In August, Islamist forces including the Nusra Front and ISIS attack Alawite villages in Latakia province, committing serious atrocities, but their territorial gains are short lived. President Obama announces that the US will bomb Syria, but only after Congressional approval. Opposition forces capture a military airport north of Aleppo and the towns of Ariha and Khanasir, severing regime supply lines to Aleppo. On August 30, the British parliament votes against military intervention in Syria.
September–December
The US Administration backs down from attacking Syria. UN inspectors report that chemical weapons have been used in Damascus. Opposition forces, including the Nusra Front, seize the Christian town of Maalula, but it is quickly retaken by the Syrian Army. The Security Council unanimously calls for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, and Assad permits international inspectors to begin the process in October. The regime launches two major offensives, which yield major gains around Damascus and Aleppo. Al-Zawahiri orders the dismantling of ISIS, which Baghdadi rejects. In December, the US and UK suspend “non-lethal assistance” to rebels in northern Syria after jihadists seize FSA bases.
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2014: Military and diplomatic stalemate drags as the death count rises. A major ISIS breakthrough in Iraq triggers a radical shift in international priorities.
January–May
The Islamic Front coalition of Salafist rebel groups and FSA forces launch an offensive against ISIS, and after al-Zawahiri distances al-Qaeda from ISIS in February, the al-Nusra Front joins the fray. In March, jihadist groups and FSA elements from Turkey conquer the Syrian Armenian town of Kessab. Worldwide outrage and Armenian pressure compel Turkey to declare the Nusra Front a terrorist group. The Syrian Army drive the jihadists out a month later, and the inhabitants return. Two rounds of peace talks in Geneva convened by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon achieve nothing. By a unanimous vote, the Security Council demands that all parties to the conflict cease attacks on civilians, singling out for censure the use of barrel bombs in populated areas. In May, a three-year battle for Homs ends in victory for the government, which permits rebel forces to evacuate the city. Special Envoy Brahimi resigns.
June–August
ISIS achieves a dramatic military breakthrough in Iraq, capturing the major cities of Mosul and Tikrit. It renames itself the Islamic State (IS) and proclaims a global caliphate. Assad holds a presidential election in government-controlled areas, winning nearly 90 percent of the vote, and international inspectors complete the removal of chemical weapons. Staffan de Mistura is appointed Brahimi’s successor as UN special envoy for Syria. Human Rights Watch condemns the regime’s continued use of barrel bombs in Aleppo. In August, the Nusra Front captures the Quneitra Crossing into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. IS reportedly massacres hundreds of people in Deir Ezzor province, while in Iraq, it captures the towns of Zumar, Wana and the Sinjar hills. IS kidnaps hundreds of Yazidi women, whom its militants rape or force into unwanted marriages. An IS siege of hundreds of Yazidi civilians on Mount Sinjar is broken by US air strikes and Kurdish fighters on August 14. The US begins arming Iraqi-Kurdish forces and, along with a coalition of international forces, commences air strikes on ISIS in Iraq. The US has now gone from calling for Assad’s downfall to bombing his regime’s opponents. On August 24, IS seizes the Syrian military airfield of Tabqa, completing the group’s control of Raqqa province. IS proceeds to loot and destroy antiquities in Syria and Iraq, some dating to the second millennium B.C.
September–December
IS invests the Kurdish town of Kobani in Syria. Kurdish fighters, aided by international air strikes, repel IS forces from most of the town. The Israeli-American journalist Steven Sotloff is executed by IS. IS continues to attack from bases in Turkey. The Syrian Army presses on north of Aleppo until it controls all major supply lines to the city. It captures the strategically important town of Morek in October. In November, the Nusra Front captures Nawa from the Syrian Army and IS downs a Syrian Air Force fighter jet, while regime air strikes in Raqqa kill dozens. The American aid worker Peter Kassig is beheaded by IS. By December, it is widely accepted that the armed opposition will not succeed in toppling Assad.
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2015: The Islamic State and other jihadist forces make territorial gains and losses, while the regime loses the initiative it had seemed to hold the year before. Meanwhile, international intervention increases, with Russia, France and Arab countries launching airstrikes.
January–March
After four months of fighting, Kurdish forces retake the city of Kobane in northern Syria from IS in late January. They then advance into the Islamists’ stronghold of Raqqa Province for the first time. Meanwhile, Syrian regime airstrikes kill 65 people in east Damascus, and loyalist forces execute rebels in the village of Ratyan, north of Aleppo. In early February, IS releases a video showing captured Jordanian pilot Moath Youssef al-Kasasbeh being burned alive leading to a series of retaliatory airstrikes by the Jordanian Air Force. Kurdish fighters reconquer villages near Tel Hamis in the northeast towards the end of the month, forcing an IS retreat. The jihadist group then launches an offensive in the west of the country, attacking the government-held Tadmur airbase in the Homs Governorate. In early March, Abu Homam al-Shami, military chief of the Nusra Front, is killed during regime airstrikes. However, the Nusra-led Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) captures the city of Idlib near the end of the month. Gains made by all sides fail to break the wider stalemate.
April–June
On the first day of April, IS takes large parts of Yarmouk refugee camp on the outskirts of Damascus after clashes with anti-Assad Palestinian militias. Two weeks later, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and FSA take significant towns and territory near Kobane. However, IS responds to these losses by taking much of the town of al-Sukhnah in Homs province. In mid-May, the jihadist group captures the historic site of Palmyra from government troops, initiating a campaign of destruction that provokes international condemnation. It continues to push the regime back elsewhere, taking a number of towns and advancing within 35 kilometers of Homs. In another setback for pro-Assad forces, Jaish al-Fatah takes Ariha, the last regime-held town in Idlib province, threatening the government heartland of Latakia. In late June, IS resumes its efforts to retake Kobane, killing 146 civilians on the second day of the offensive in one of the conflict’s largest massacres. An IS suicide bomber also kills 20 people in Hasakeh, the most important city in northeast Syria.
July–September
In early July, IS releases a video of a mass execution of 25 regime soldiers in Palmyra’s amphitheater. Hezbollah and Syrian Army fighters enter the strategic town of Zabadani near the Beruit-Damascus highway, held by Nusra Front and other rebel groups. Regime forces make gains in pushing IS back from territory around Palmyra. The Syrian Air Force continues to make use of controversial barrel bombs, with a particularly large strike in mid-October killing 50 people in Douma, a suburb of Damascus under rebel control. Meanwhile, the regime loses territory to the Army of Conquest and FSA in the vital al-Ghab Plain. The area lies on the highway connecting the regime’s heartland of Latakia with Aleppo, and control of it is crucial to government efforts to hold the latter. At the end of August, IS fighters attack the southern outskirts of Damascus. Rumors circulate of Russian airstrikes in early September, along with reports that Russian troops are conducting training drills inside regime territory. The government air force drops barrel bombs throughout September, causing many civilian deaths in Aleppo and Bosra. Airstrikes are also conducted against IS-held Raqqa. Later in the month, government forces recapture a number of villages around Hama. International tension increases, as France launches its first airstrikes against IS training camps and Russian President Vladimir Putin claims US support for rebels to be “illegal” according to UN resolutions. Shortly after, Russia begins its own campaign of airstrikes.
October–November
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi supports the Russian intervention. With Iranian and Russian support, the regime begins another offensive to retake Hama, but the FSA put up fierce resistance. However, the regime gains ground in Idlib province, capturing the villages of Atshan and Om Hartein. Relations between the United States and Russia worsen further, with a US government official claiming that Russian airstrikes are deliberately targeting CIA-trained rebels rather than IS, killing 150 to date.
In late October, international talks to resolve the crisis are held in Vienna. Notably, Iran is invited to participate for the first time. While agreeing on the need to defeat IS and bring regime and rebel representatives to the negotiating table, disagreement remains over the future of President Assad. Iran and Saudi Arabia reportedly clash, as do the United States and Russia. A week later, President Obama announces that US Special Forces will be sent to Syria in an “advisory” role. November sees a dramatic escalation in the international dimensions of the conflict, with a large-scale terror attack—believed to have been orchestrated by IS—killing 130 people in Paris. President Hollande vows to create a “grand coalition” to defeat IS. A few days later, the United Nations Security Council drafts a resolution committing them to destroying the group “by any means necessary.” However, tension between international players rises as the Turkish Air Force shoots down a fighter jet in their airspace. Turkey claims it to be a legitimate act of defence; President Putin reacts by accusing Turkey of aiding IS and promising “serious consequences.”