APPENDIX 3: AMERICAN CHRISTIAN ATTITUDES TOWARD ISRAEL AND EPICENTER ISSUES

Exclusive National Survey for Joel C. Rosenberg

Conducted by McLaughlin & Associates

1,000 randomly selected American Christians

March 16-18, 2008

On May 14, 2008, Jews and Christians the world over celebrated the sixtieth anniversary of the dramatic and prophetic rebirth of the State of Israel.

In light of this historic anniversary, I commissioned a second national survey to examine more closely the attitudes of American Christians toward Israel, the future of Jerusalem, the Iranian nuclear threat, and other Middle East issues. Whereas the first survey looked at the views of Americans as a whole, this survey focused exclusively on Americans who identified themselves as Protestants or Catholics and was conducted by the same nationally respected firm that did the first poll.434

On April 10, 2008, I had the honor of releasing these results to 2,000 Christian and Jewish leaders from all over the world at the inaugural Epicenter Convention. They found the results intriguing. I think you will too.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Among the major findings of this survey:

• The overwhelming majority of American Christians love the State of Israel and its people, and 82% believe they have “a moral and biblical obligation to support Israel and pray for peace in Jerusalem.”
• American Christians also desire to demonstrate their unconditional love and compassion for the people of Israel and the epicenter in real and practical ways. Fully 75% of all Christians in the U.S.—and 81% of evangelical Protestants—believe that “in addition to caring for the poor and needy in our own country, Christians have a moral and biblical obligation to provide humanitarian relief to the poor and needy and to victims of war and terrorism in Israel and the Middle East.”
• Half of all American Christians—and 57% of evangelical Protestants—desire to one day take a tour of Israel, walk where Jesus walked, and visit the Christian and Jewish holy sites.
• That said, however, American Christians are worried about the threat posed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his government—65% are convinced that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Iran’s leaders will eventually try to use them to attack Israel and wipe her “off the map,” as Ahmadinejad has threatened.
• What’s more, though recent U.S. presidents have pushed hard diplomatically for a final status peace deal between Israel and her neighbors, American Christians are deeply conflicted about the goal of creating a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. They share the desire for peace in the Middle East but fear that a Palestinian state could become a base camp for terrorism, not the home of a peaceful new democracy.
• American Christians feel strongly about the Holy City of Jerusalem—they want Jerusalem to remain the undivided capital of the Jewish State of Israel and overwhelmingly oppose dividing the Holy City to become the capital of a Palestinian Muslim state.
• Finally, the survey found that the manner in which U.S. presidential candidates handle epicenter issues could be a key factor in how American Christians decide whom they will vote for.

CHRISTIAN LOVE FOR ISRAEL

The polling firm asked people whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: Christians have a moral and biblical obligation to show love and support for the people of Israel and pray for peace in Jerusalem.

82% of American Christians agree

Only 10% disagree

8% say they don’t know

Historically, American Protestants and Catholics have been divided on a host of social and political issues. But standing in solidarity with Israel turns out to be one of the great unifiers among Christians, the poll found.

Evangelical Christians—defined as those who describe themselves as “born again”—are the biggest supporters of Israel (89% said they agree). But strong pro-Israel convictions were by no means limited to evangelicals. They actually cut across all key demographics. Regardless of age, gender, race, political ideology, political party, region of the country, and denomination (Protestant or Catholic), the vast majority of Christians in the U.S. believe at a core level that the Bible teaches them to love Israel and pray for peace in Jerusalem.

CHRISTIAN COMPASSION FOR ISRAEL AND HER NEIGHBORS

The polling firm asked whether people agreed or disagreed with the following statement: In addition to caring for the poor and needy in our own country, Christians have a moral and biblical obligation to provide humanitarian relief to the poor and needy and to victims of war and terrorism in Israel and the Middle East.

75% of American Christians agree

16% disagree

9% say they don’t know

Based on the answers to the previous poll question, it should not be surprising that Christians want to demonstrate their love in real and practical ways to victims of war and terrorism in Israel. But significantly, they also want to demonstrate biblical love and compassion to Israel’s neighbors, such as the Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza and the people of Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, and the rest of the Middle East.

The issue of providing humanitarian aid—food, clothing, medical supplies, and the like—to those in real and serious need is a unifying issue among Christians. Evangelicals feel strongest about the importance of doing relief work (89% said it is a biblical mandate), but they are not alone. A full 76% of Christians who say they are not “born again” also say they want to care for the poor, and this conviction turned out to be widely held among all Christians.

For example:

• 77% of Christians who identified themselves as “very liberal” said they agreed with providing humanitarian relief to the needy in Israel and the Middle East.
• 82% of Christians who identified themselves as “very conservative” agreed as well.

CHRISTIAN DESIRE TO VISIT THE HOLY LAND

The polling firm asked, Do you have an interest in someday taking a tour of Israel, walking where Jesus walked, and visiting the Christian and Jewish holy sites?

49% of all American Christians said yes

58% of Evangelical Christians said yes

52% of Catholics said yes

We probed deeper to determine how many had a “strong interest” in touring Israel and how many simply had “some interest.” The numbers were still strikingly high. Nearly one-fourth of all American Christians (24%) have a “strong interest.” Among Catholics, the number jumps to 28% with “strong interest.” And among evangelicals, the number jumps to nearly one in three (32%) with “strong interest.”

In the end, however, what was particularly striking about these results was not so much the percentage of Christians who said they would like to visit Israel but how that percentage translates into sheer numbers of potential tourists to the Jewish state. There are an estimated 100 million evangelical Christians in the U.S., according to the Institute for the Study of American Evangelicals at Wheaton College.435 That translates into some 32 million American evangelicals who have a “strong interest” in visiting Nazareth, Bethlehem, the Sea of Galilee, the Mount of Beatitudes, and the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

At the same time, there are an estimated 64 million Catholics in the U.S., according to the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.⁴³⁶ That translates into nearly 18 million Catholics who have a “strong interest” in walking the Via Dolorosa and visiting the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, the Garden of Gethsemane, and other sites where Jesus and his disciples walked and ministered.

All told, there are about 91 million American Christians who want to visit Israel, and at least 50 million who strongly desire to walk where Jesus walked.

CHRISTIAN CONCERN OVER THE “IRANIAN BOMB”

The polling firm asked, If Iran develops nuclear weapons, do you believe the leaders of Iran will eventually try to use those nuclear weapons to attack Israel?

65% of American Christians said yes

13% said no

23% said they don’t know

While strong majorities fear Iranian use of nuclear weapons—and those majorities cut across all demographics—there are notable differences:

• 60% of Christians who identified themselves as “very liberal” fear Iranian nuclear weapons will be used to attack Israel, compared to 83% of those who describe themselves as “very conservative.”
• 60% of Christians who are registered Democrats said yes, compared to 77% of Christian Republicans. (55% of self-identified Independents said yes.)
• Only 55% of Christians 40 and under said yes, while 66% of Christians 55 and over said yes.
• Non-white Christians are more worried than white Christians (71% said yes, vs. 64%).

It should be noted that nearly a quarter of American Christians (23%) told the polling firm they were not yet sure how to evaluate the Iranian threat to Israel, suggesting they are perhaps watching events in the Middle East to see if Iranian leaders are prepared to make good on their threats or whether the U.S., Israel, or other Western allies will take decisive diplomatic, economic, or military action to neutralize the threat.

CHRISTIAN CONCERNS ABOUT A PALESTINIAN STATE

The polling firm asked, If a Palestinian state were established in the West Bank and Gaza, do you believe it would more likely be a peaceful, moderate democracy or a terrorist state?

32% of American Christians said “a terrorist state”

24% said a “peaceful democracy”

44% said they don’t know

American Christians who believe in the words spoken by Jesus—”Blessed are the peacemakers”—certainly hope that the Middle East peace process will produce a just and fair solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. But they are deeply conflicted about what would be “just and fair” and about the potential unintended consequences of a comprehensive treaty.

By an eight-point margin (32% to 24%) American Christians fear that if a Palestinian state was established, it would more likely be a terrorist state than a peaceful, moderate democracy. However, a striking 44% doesn’t know.

There are some clear demographic distinctions. For example, Protestants lean toward saying a Palestinian state would be a terrorist state, but Catholics are virtually split. Evangelical Protestants say a Palestinian state would be a terrorist state by a twenty-point margin but non-evangelical Protestants lean toward saying it would be a peaceful, moderate democracy. The opinion that a Palestinian state would be a terrorist state is strongest among Republican and conservative evangelical Protestants.

CHRISTIAN VIEWS ON DIVIDING JERUSALEM

The polling firm asked the following question: Throughout history Jerusalem has never been the capital of any state except the Jewish State of Israel. Now, the international community is pressuring Israel to divide Jerusalem. Do you believe that Jerusalem should remain the united capital of Israel, or be divided and become the capital of a Palestinian Muslim state as well?

50% say Jerusalem should remain the united capital of Israel

Only 17% think Jerusalem should be divided

33% say they don’t know

While by a 3 to 1 ratio (50% to 17%) American Christians believe that Jerusalem should remain the united capital of Israel, curiously, Protestants and Catholics are somewhat divided. A majority of Protestants (53%) support a united Jerusalem, but only 44% of Catholics do. The biggest split, however, comes between evangelical and non-evangelical Christians.

• 70% of evangelical men support a united Jerusalem, while only 37% of non-evangelical men share that view.
• 55% of evangelical women support a united Jerusalem, versus only 45% of non-evangelical women.
• 71% of evangelical Republicans support a united Jerusalem, while only 42% of non-evangelical Republicans share that view.
• 58% of evangelical Democrats support a united Jerusalem, versus only 41% of non-evangelical Democrats.

That said, fully one in three American Christians say they don’t know enough to take a position one way or the other, suggesting that there is still quite a bit of education to be done by those who advocate keeping Jerusalem the united capital of the Jewish state. After all, among those who feel they have the knowledge to have a firm opinion, 75% of American Christians support a united Jerusalem, while 25% think it should be divided. Among evangelical Protestants, a stunning 85% say Jerusalem should stay united under Jewish control, while only 15% say it should be divided with Muslims.

HOW EPICENTER ISSUES MAY AFFECT CHRISTIAN VOTERS

The polling firm also asked, Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for president of the United States if you knew that candidate would strongly advocate policies to protect America from radical Islamic terrorism; protect Israel from a nuclear attack by Iran; protect the capital of Israel, Jerusalem, from being divided with Palestinian Muslims; and refuse to pressure Israel to make diplomatic concessions that could endanger Israel’s national security? If it would make no difference, just say so.

45% of American Christians said they would be more likely to vote for a U.S. presidential candidate who advocated such positions on Middle East issues

Only 9% said they would be less likely

29% said such positions would make no difference in their voting behavior

The survey results suggest that American Christians are looking carefully for a presidential candidate who understands the magnitude of the threat posed to the U.S. and its allies by radical Islamic extremists and who strongly advocates policy positions to defend U.S. national security as well defend strategic allies such as Israel in the winner-take-all battle with radical Islam.

Americans Christians can be expected to watch epicenter-related issues closely, and the survey results suggest a presidential candidate’s position on these issues will strongly affect Christians’ behavior at the ballot box.

• By a nearly an 11 to 1 margin (64% to 6%), Republican Christian men would be more likely to vote for a candidate with a strong position on these epicenter issues.
• Republican Christian women would also be strongly swayed (56% said more likely, while only 3% said less likely).
• Democrat Christian men would not be swayed as strongly as Republican Christian men, but by more than 2 to 1, they are also looking for a candidate taking such epicenter positions (35% to 15%).
• Democrat Christian women are even more open to persuasion (37% say they are more likely, while only 11% say they are less likely).
• Perhaps most intriguing is that epicenter issues matter significantly to Christians who describe themselves as Independents. A full 44% of Christian Independent men say they are more likely, while only 6% say less likely. The numbers are similar for Christian Independent women (44% to 11%).