In the last chapter we discussed how communicators, by highlighting their expertise before presenting their message or proposal, can often register big differences in the subsequent response to those messages and proposals. Over two thousand years ago, the Roman poet Virgil advised that people should “believe an expert” and, as Jan Engelmann and his colleagues demonstrated in their brain-imaging studies, that advice remains just as relevant today. In fact a case could be made that Virgil’s advice is even more relevant. Every day we face an onslaught of information, in our professional and personal lives, that we are required to navigate. In the context of such information overload, we search for decision-making shortcuts such as those provided by expert opinions. So, it is easy to see why those who have superior knowledge and wisdom can exert so much influence over our decision making.
Fortunately, there appears to be no shortage of experts willing to help. The business world provides a good illustration with a seemingly never-ending supply of specialists eager to aid any organization to make the right choices. The same is true in our personal lives. Financial advisers stand at the ready, armed with the latest investment advice, as do parental coaches with state-of-the-art child-rearing techniques, and personal trainers with cutting-edge advice on how to stay fit and healthy.
There is an irony here, though. Today’s information-overloaded world requires us to look to experts to help guide our way, but there is also an overload of experts, all claiming that theirs is the advice we should listen to and follow. In this information-saturated world where so many claim to be an expert, how do we know who to follow?
Perhaps we should listen to the experts who sound the most confident. After all, we intuitively know that people are more often convinced by those experts who sound certain, right?
Actually, perhaps not!
Consumer researchers Uma Karmarkar and Zakary Tormala believe that it isn’t always the recommendations and advice that emanate from the most confident-sounding expert that will carry sway. Instead, their studies find that often it is the advice and recommendations that come from experts who are themselves uncertain that is the most compelling. This is especially the case when advice concerns situations for which there is no one clear or obvious answer.
In one of Karmarkar and Tormala’s studies, customers were shown a positive review for a new restaurant called Bianco’s. Half of the customers were told that the review was written by a well-known and regularly published food critic, but the other half were told the review was written by a little-known blogger who mostly ate in fast-food restaurants. As you would expect, and consistent with lots of previous research, those who read the review written by the well-known and experienced restaurant reviewer were more influenced by the review than those who read the one written by an unknown blogger. But the researchers weren’t finished.
As well as varying the expertise of each reviewer, they also varied how confident the reviewer felt about the review. For example in a high-certainty condition the reviewer wrote, “I ate dinner there and can confidently give this restaurant a 4 star rating.”
However in the low-certainty condition the reviewer wrote, “Because I have only eaten at Bianco’s once I am not completely confident in my opinion but, for now, I am awarding this restaurant 4 stars.”
Those folks who read the review from the expert who expressed uncertainty were significantly more favorable to the restaurant and rated the likelihood they would frequent it as much higher than those that read the reviews by the highly certain expert or the unknown blogger. In each case the review itself never changed—only the small degree of how confident the expert reviewer was.
In explaining their findings Karmarkar and Tormala point out that because people generally expect experts to be certain about their opinions, it’s when an expert signals potential uncertainties that people are drawn in to what they are saying. In effect, the source’s expertise, when coupled with a level of uncertainty, arouses intrigue. As a result, and assuming that the arguments that the expert makes are still reasonably strong, this drawing in of an audience to the features of the message can actually lead to more effective persuasion.
This insight offers an important lesson for communicators wishing to increase the persuasiveness of a message. It can be easy to conceal a small doubt, tiny niggle, or slight uncertainty in your argument, believing those small things could make a large and detrimental difference to your success. However, in situations where it is clear that no single obvious answer exists, signaling a small uncertainty, rather than being detrimental to your cause, could make a big and beneficial difference to it. As a result, when seeking to persuade decision makers, a business consultant, rather than hiding or covering up minor uncertainties about a recommendation, might instead embrace them in the knowledge that they can actually make him or her more persuasive—assuming, of course, that the case is a strong one. Doing so affords another advantage—it is a strategy that is likely to build trust as well.