Fitting or Folding

When the flop hits the table, you have definition of your hand. Five-sevenths (or about 70 percent) of all the cards possible for the hand are now known.

A flop relative to your hand is a lot like the weather. When you wake up and look out the window, you don’t have a guarantee of what the rest of the day is going to be like, but the general patterns give you a pretty good idea of what’s up for the day.

The thing you need to be most concerned about is whether the flop fits your hand. In other words, does your hand improve with the flop you see? Likewise, you want to think about how that very same flop may or may not improve the other people’s hands around the table.

Great flops

The flop fits your hand very well if any of the following are true (in descending order of greatness):

You’ve flopped a straight flush. It’s always thrilling when it happens — and, if you’re overtly emotional, it may give you a chance to see what your skeleton looks like when it jumps out of your body.
You’ve flopped a full house. Fun. Especially when it’s something bizarre, like you hold 3-8 on the big blind (no one has raised, so you’re playing for free) and the flop is 3-8-3.
You’ve flopped the nut flush.
You’ve flopped the nut straight.
You’ve flopped quads.
You’ve flopped trips.
You’ve flopped two pair, with one of the pair being top of the board. For example, you’re holding A-3 and the board is A-10-3.

Good flops

The flop is definitely good for you in any of the following situations:

You’ve flopped a flush or straight that is not the best possible for a given board. You probably have a winner here, but you have to be just a tad leery of people holding cards over yours — this is particularly true for those players who are now holding a four-flush with a singleton that is above your best hole card.
You’ve flopped two pair that do not include the bottom pair.
You’ve flopped top pair with the best kicker. For example, you’re holding A-K and the flop is A-8-4, or you’re holding A-9 and the flop is 9-2-7.
You hold a pocket pair that’s higher than the board. Say, you’re holding 10-10 with a low-ball flop of 2-3-7. You still have a mild vulnerability here to trips and two pair (particularly from the blinds).

Very borderline flops

Then there are flops that make your hand better but leave you possibly exposed:

You flop a pair that isn’t the best possible. Say you hold Q-J and the flop is K-Q-9, or you hold J-10 and the flop is A-Q-10.
You flop a four-flush or a four-straight. Odds are you won’t make this hand on the next two cards, but you may be forced to play it for pot odds reasons.
You flop top pair but have kicker trouble. This situation is particularly a problem with aces, because the whole table likes to hold onto them. If you’re playing a suited A-2 from late position with five people still in the hand and the flop is A-7-5 rainbow, we guarantee you that you have a loser. (Right this second — all it takes is an opponent who has an Ace and any card bigger than a 5.)

From a bankroll perspective, you should think of the hands listed here as being some of the most dangerous hands at a Poker table. The problem is that they tease you along to play more (sometimes even jacking with your mind in such a way that you become more convinced that your opponents are bluffing), but they’re rife with holes.

Downright dangerous flops

Then there are those little places in Horrorville that occasionally crop up:

You’ve hit the bottom end of a straight, but the flop is also flushing. For example, you have 8♦ 9♦ and the flop is 10♠ J♠ Q♠.
You hold a great pocket pair and bigger cards hit the board (especially when they’re in quantity). For example, you have Q-Q and the flop is A-A-K. If there is more than just a player or two in the pot, guess what? That’s right, your great starter of pocket queens is now a loser.
You have a flop that misses your hand, but still gives you over cards. For example, you hold A-K in middle position and you see a Q-5-4 flop, with immediate action from the small or large blinds.

Just plain bad flops

Any flop that doesn’t fit your hand at all (and you don’t have a pocket pair) is bad — more so if you don’t even hold an ace. The answer in this situation is almost always exactly what you’d guess: Fold.

In Hold’em, especially until you get a better feel for the game and your opponents, you want to start off with the fundamental concept that if the flop doesn’t fit your hand, you should fold. Yes, you will occasionally be bluffed out, but caution and folding will save you money as you learn. Watching other people see if that guy who’s betting is bluffing is less costly for you and will give you more objective feel for the other players at the table (because your money isn’t at stake).

THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

You may get flops that play into your hand in multiple ways. For example, if you have A♣ 5♣ with a flop of J♣ 5♦ 3♣, you’re now holding second pair (with best kicker) and the nut flush draw.

There are three obvious ways this hand can improve on the turn or river:

If you draw a club, you have the nut flush.
If you draw another 5, you have trips.
If you draw an ace, you have a strong two pair.

(There’s also the freak runner-runner of drawing a 4 and a 2 on the turn and river for making the wheel. But this possibility shouldn’t be part of your decision making — it’s not likely enough to happen, but it is part of the hand.)

Any time your hand works in multiple directions, it’s far better than having only one path to victory, and you should be more eager to play it. This rule is especially true in No-Limit. You may have an instance where you know you have an identical hand with an opponent. Say you’re holding A♦ K♦ and the board has Q♦ J♦ 10♠. From the play at the table, you’re certain your opponent also has A-K. You should move as much money on the table as possible — not because you’re trying to make your royal flush — but because any diamond turned will give you a flush and beat your opponent’s Broadway straight.

In Poker slang, this situation, where you can draw cards at the mercy of your opponent with a currently identical hand, is called a freeroll. (Yes, it’s the same term used to describe a tournament with no entry fee.)

Betting the Flop

Now that you have an idea of what category your flop falls into, we come down to the little details of betting. Unlike with your hole cards, where blinds force action at the table, checking all the way around the table after a flop is possible.

The way that players bet on the flop, and especially your position at the table, come into play here.

When you’re playing Hold’em, on the hole card and flop rounds, you bet one set amount. The amount you bet doubles on the turn and the river.

Because of this, you may want to make some bets now in an effort to not make more costly bets later. You may also want to wait and not represent a good hand just yet — this strategy may give you a chance to make more money later.

Sizing up the table for a bet

The prime rule of anything economic — but especially Poker — is to maximize your wins and minimize your losses. With all betting actions at a Poker table, this concept should ride paramount in your mind.

Asking yourself a few questions helps. And don’t sweat it: At first these questions may seem like a lot to consider, but after you’ve played some, they’ll become second nature.

How many players do you want?

If you have a very good hand, you may well want as many players in the hand as you can keep. The amount you’re betting will double on the next round, so anyone who is still in the hand at the end of this round will be forced to decide to play for double in the next. This is great if you’re on top and sucks rocks if you’re not.

If you make any fence sitters fold now, you definitely won’t get their bets next round.

However, if you have a hand that can be beaten with a draw (or a wide number of draws), you may want to bet to get people out of the hand now — or at the very least make them pay to see cards.

Who is still left to act in the hand and how do they behave?

If you have some monster opponent at your table who always raises and always plays to the end, don’t go out firing a bet if you lack confidence in your hand. You know that guy is going to raise, and there’s no need to squander an extra bet.

Likewise, if you know that a player at the table only plays post-flop when she has a nut hand, go ahead and set a bet out right now. If she folds, you’re done. If she calls, you know your hand has to get significantly better on the turn or she has you beat. It’s still been a good bet on your part, though, because you found out the strength of her hand now, while the betting is half-priced.

Make sure to see Book 3, Chapter 6 for more information about getting an understanding of the players at a table.

Making the bet

If there has been heavy raising and reraising pre-flop, especially if any of it has come from behind you, you’re better off checking around the table than letting that player bet again — regardless of what happened with your hand on the flop. Nine times out of ten the raiser will be on some kind of adrenaline rush anyway from looking at a nice pair of hole cards, and he’ll go ahead and fire a bet right on out when given a chance.

By checking to him, you save yourself a raise, and even if you want to raise, the check-raise will almost certainly work here.

Assuming you don’t have any maniacal super-aggressive beasts prowling at your table, if the flop has fit your hand, you should bet it. If you’re playing the cards we recommend (and you should be, at least until you get supremely comfortable with the game), you’re going to be folding the vast majority of hands. You’ll be folding so much that when you do play a hand, you need a return on your betting investment.

In general, it takes a better hand to call than it does to bet, so by betting, you’re gleaning (somewhat imperfect) information about the hands around the table. You’re also taking control of the game, which has some value.

If you get raised when you make a bet, consider both your opponent (for example, is she the kind of person who typically does this) and especially reexamine the flop (is there something in the flop you’re missing?).

Straight draws and flush draws are the obvious threats, and they can easily sneak up on you. The other thing that will nail you is hidden trips. Someone (usually in late position) holds a smaller pair and may have managed to match the board.

If you have four cards to a straight or flush, from a purely mathematical point of view, the best thing to do is to check because the odds are that you will not be making your straight or flush. However, if you think that you have a pretty good chance of getting people to fold by betting, you should go ahead and bet the hand here.

If you’re the last person to act and everyone has checked to you, you should bet if the flop fits your hand in any way. This bet implies to the table that you do, in fact, have a hand — and on extremely tight tables, it may win the pot for you outright.

From later position, check only if you have a true monster hand (which will guarantee a win on the next card at double the betting value) or the flop missed you entirely.

Calling a Bet

This is the edge of a more complicated territory.

If someone else has bet, you know a couple of things about his hand: He thought that his starting hole cards were good enough to play in the first place (or he was forced to play by being on the blinds), and now he’s implying that the flop has somehow fit his hand.

The most important thing to consider on a call is the character of the person who has placed the original bet. Is he aggressive? Timid? Hotheaded? Mad about losing the last hand? Drunk? Get a good feeling about this before you make a decision to call. (See Book 3, Chapter 6 for more about understanding your opponents.)

Hands that somewhat fit the flop can call. After all, this is still a cheap betting round and the turn may produce a card that fits your hand even better. Plus, your betting opponent may become less aggressive on the turn because he may not have that strong of a hand either and may have been just testing your mettle.

On the other hand, the turn card may come up anemic, making your not-so-great-fitting flop seem even worse — and making it easier to fold.

Hands that fit the flop well can call and can even consider raising, which we discuss in the following section.

You do not have to have the winning hand of the moment to be correct in calling. In fact, you can know that you’re an underdog — but as long as you have pot odds in your favor, you’re still right in making a call.

If calling seems to be too hard of a decision, fall back on the old standby question: With a bet in front of me, would I rather fold or raise with the hand I’m currently holding? If you ask yourself this question and the answer is “raise,” then you at least have a call. If the answer is “fold,” then just give up the hand right now. The hand will only get more expensive and complicated from here, not cheaper.

It is a supremely bad idea, especially in Limit, to decide on the flop that someone is bluffing and start calling them from now until the last bet on the river. If you think someone is bluffing, it’s possible that

You’re wrong. She actually does have a hand and you’re watching your money walk away.
She doesn’t have a hand yet, but she’ll end up making one. This scenario is possible with a semi-bluff (see Book 3, Chapter 7) or if the player just gets lucky.
She may have a hand that’s better than yours — even if she is bluffing.

Raising the Dough

The rough guidelines of raising are to (a) consider how you want the person you’ll be raising to react to your bet, and (b) make the action that will most help you with these interests.

Ask yourself how likely a person is to fold to a raise, and then:

If you want that person to fold and you don’t believe she will, don’t bother raising and just call. You’re not helping your situation.
If you don’t want the person to fold, but you believe she will, wait and just call the hand for now. The river round will cost twice as much money and you’ll make more that way.
If you believe she may raise you back, and you don’t want to call that raise, don’t raise her right now. The best way to stop a raising war is to not do it yourself.
If you believe she may raise you back, and that’s what you want, what are you waiting for? Go go go. (Hey, are you sure you know what you’re doing?)
If you don’t care whether the person raises or folds, you should raise. You must have a pretty good hand, and if she folds, you know you win right now. If she doesn’t fold, you’ll probably just win even more money later.
If you’re not sure how she’ll react, raise. Then you’ll find out — and you’ll almost certainly control the hand on the turn.

Bluffing is much more difficult in Limit than it is in No-Limit because the penalty for calling — at least in the short term — just isn’t that severe. For now, you should hold back on your aspirations of getting people to back away from the pot with your 2-7 off-suit.

Check-Raising

If you check during your turn, then raise when someone behind you has bet, this is known as a check-raise. It is, very rightly, considered to be one of the most aggressive things you can do on a card table (but not as bad as, say, throwing your drink in someone’s face).

You should check-raise on the flop in just a few, very specific circumstances:

You have a very good hand, but the number of players currently playing is too big and needs to be reduced.
You’re playing against someone whom you know you’re beating and you’re certain he’ll call and be the first person to bet next round. If he will not be the first to bet next round, you should simply call and raise on the turn — you get an extra bet out of him that way.
You have the best hand, it’s most likely going to remain the best, and you’re playing at a table full of maniacs who will most likely cap all betting rounds, until … you pull down the largest pot of your life! This is a level of thrill that is virtually unmatched in Poker.
You think a check-raise will very likely work as a bluff now and get your timid competitor to fold before this same little stunt doubles in price next round.
You think you can get a “free card” by check-raising. (See the “Getting a Free Card” section of this chapter for more.)
You know that someone is playing for a draw, and you’re beating him right this second, but you’ll lose the hand if he’s successful in getting the card he needs. The reason to raise after checking is because you may be able to get him to fold right now — and even if you don’t, you want to make him pay as dearly as possible to see each following card.

In any other situation, you’re better off just calling and waiting for the next round. Check-raising always draws attention from even the sleepiest of players at the table, and it may well not be attention that you want.

The best hand does win a pot, you don’t have to bet it repeatedly to make it better, and on the flop round (which is only half-price), you very likely are losing extra money.

If you think of a bet-raise-and-call being worth 4 units from a total of two people after the final call (bet 1 + call 1 + raise 1 + call 1), that same play is worth 8 on the turn (bet 2 + call 2 + raise 2 + call 2). Even if your opponent folds on a check-raise on the turn, you’ve still made an extra 2 units from what you would have on a folded check-raise on the flop. (You would have called your opponent’s single bet on the flop and then raised his 2-unit bet on the river — he put in 3, rather than 1.)

Check-raising definitely does have its place, but usually you’ll find it later in the game.

No-Limit is a bit different. You want to consider using a very heavy check-raise on any opponent who’s on a draw. The problem here, of course, is that you have to be dead certain that he is drawing (instead of just having you flat-out beaten), and there are many players who will semi-bluff back at you with an all-in.

Getting a Free Card

There is one big exception to the check-raising rule: If you think you can get a free card by doing it, it’s worth trying. This exception is easiest to describe by example.

The free card setup

Typically, you want to try for a free card if you’re trying to make a straight or flush draw.

Say you’re playing J♦ 10♦ out of a late position, and there was one flat-caller pre-flop from a middle position — meaning, three people are still in: you, the flat-caller, and the big blind.

The flop is Q♦ 5♣ 2♦.

The big blind checked, the middle position bet, and the action is on you. You have a flush draw here, but most likely you don’t have the best current hand (all it takes is one player with a card bigger than a jack). A call might barely give you pot odds.

But if you raise here, what’s likely to happen?

Both players could fold and you win. That’s pretty great.
One player could reraise you, in which case you know she has some form of a smokin’-good hand (either trips or an A-J in this situation). Assuming you don’t have pot odds for drawing your flush, you could fold.
Most likely, one or both players will call. They perceive you as having a good hand (or maybe just trying to bluff), but the flop has slightly fit their hands as well. They call you, waiting to see the turn.

And here is where the beautiful part happens. On the turn, anyone still in the hand checks to you. If that player has made a hand, he’s going to wait for you to bet so he can check-raise you. If he missed, or if he’s still just in a so-so position, he’s waiting for you to bet and then he’ll make a decision on what to do. But because you’re last to act, you don’t have to bet. If you miss your card on the draw, you simply check and the dealer will summarily bang out the river card. If you made your hand, you just go ahead and bet.

What this effectively means is that you get a free river card. And you saw the turn for half-price, because your raise was less than a call on the turn would have been.

Defending against a free card

Now that you know the trick to get a free card, you can also defend against it. Any time on the flop that you see a raise behind you, with what appears to be a board draw — again, flushes and straights — you can either reraise before the turn if you have a very good hand, or simply call and then bet (instead of checking) when it’s your action on the turn.

Notice that we’re talking about draws here, not made hands. Raising into a person with an all-club board showing is foolish at best, and suicidal at worst.

Flopping ’Til You’re Dropping