There are two reasons you’ll have no trouble finding exceptions to what is presented in this book:
1. There is always a counterculture within a prevailing culture.
2. Individuals are not predictable.
The Pendulum predicts only the momentum and direction of the majority in a society—most of the people, most of the time.
Certainly not everyone, and certainly not always.
iStockphoto / gunnar3000
iStockphoto / double_p
We mention this not because we fear detractors, but rather because there are zealots who will try to use these insights to make predictions that, frankly, cannot be made.
We must keep in mind the story of the statistician who drowned while trying to wade across a river with an average depth of four feet. That is to say, in a culture that reveres statistics, we can never be sure what sort of nonsense will lodge in people’s heads.1
WE |
In the darkness of “We” you’ll find smug self-righteousness, legalism and bureaucracy. |
Here’s a theoretical example of the dangerous “zealot logic” we’re talking about:
Al Gore, a Democrat, won the popular vote in the election of 2000, but the presidency went to George W. Bush, the son of a president, amidst outraged cries of “bargain and corruption.” This had already happened once before when Andrew Jackson, another Democrat, won the popular vote in 1824 but the presidency went to John Quincy Adams, the son of a president, amidst outraged cries of “bargain and corruption.” The only difference between the two scenarios is that Andrew Jackson ran again four years later and soundly defeated John Quincy Adams to become our seventh president. The Pendulum, therefore, predicts that if Al Gore had run again in 2004, he most certainly would have been elected.
When you think about it for a moment, it does seem likely that Gore would have been elected had he run a second time in 2004. But this does not prove the absurd claim that it was predictable using Pendulum theory. As we told you earlier, we strongly discourage any use of the Pendulum to make specific predictions concerning politics or the economy.
Sparkling goodness with a dark underbelly attends each of the twenty-year strokes of the Pendulum. None of them is inherently better than the others. The only time when things will, more often than not, be upbeat is when the Pendulum is near its fulcrum halfway between extremes. This is when the tension between “Me” and “We” is most in balance and a society hums in expectant harmony.
Transparency, volunteerism, and authenticity are on the sunny side of a “We.” But in the darkness of “We” you’ll find smug self-righteousness, legalism, and bureaucracy.
The year 2003 was the beginning of a “We,” and we’re currently in its Upswing. To better understand what lies ahead, let’s look back at the previous Upswing of “We.”
Come, the journey continues.
iStockphoto / top: kWaiGon / bottom: goclaygo
