In the Introduction, I talked about the Dowd memo being the flapping of the wings of the butterfly. As historians dissect the great Republican collapse, they’ll have much more of a record to work with than I do, but I do think it began when Karl Rove and Bush embraced the Matthew Dowd memo. There were a number of moments that, when we look back, they’ll be as obvious in the future as they are today: Katrina, WMDs, beyond disbelief energy policy—and, of course, Terri Schiavo.
The Terri Schiavo case was the one instant in which it was revealed just how caught up the modern Republican Party is with the right wing. (The selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate may qualify as another.) Republicans mounted a Sunday night legislative effort, and Bush got jerked around like a dime-store politician, intruding on family matters.1 There’s never been a case of more asinine science or a more pathetic use of medicine. The autopsy confirmed what every doctor said was the case, even as right-wing preachers had the Republicans making fools of themselves. Eventually the Schiavo case will be seen as part of the unraveling, as much so as anything else. What will be more interesting than tracing the decline of the Republican Party in modern politics (although I am certainly enjoying it) will be observing its recovery. I’ll be the first person to acknowledge that the United States will always have a pro-business, center-right political party. In the future it will probably be the Republican Party, but it will not be the one we know right now, or the GOP of 2000, either.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Republican Party re-emerges from its current disastrous state. I’ll be curious to see how Republicans weather the effects of the Bush-Rove-Dowd legacy. The consequences of losing an entire generation of voters will be monumental. I’ve spoken to a great many Republican pollsters, consultants, and supporters. Most of them admit they are sickened by the data; others say heartbroken. The country realized what every political strategist of either party realizes: the 2008 election proved just how dramatically the political terrain of the United States is shifting. Will the Democrats win every election for the next forty years? Of course not. Again, of course not. Woodrow Wilson and Dwight Eisenhower were elected during the opposite party’s dominance. Nonetheless, the days of Republican ascendancy in presidential politics have either ended or are in the process of ending, and a Democratic majority headed by President Obama has emerged.